The Politics Thread 2019

[McRamFan]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

Does raising awareness automatically mean you have to offer solutions?

And don't forget he was started his activism during the time this was being wilfully covered up by authorities as the recent report into grooming gangs has proved fact - what other options does a powerless working class guy have when he sees friends and neighbours daughters being raped whilst police and councillors turn a blind eye.  Just reading the report makes you feel sick.

Sorry, you are very wrong there.  TR's actions almost caused the case to collapse.  He is still being investigated by the Courts as to how he will have to answer to his actions.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/tommy-robinson-prison-jail-grooming-gangs-huddersfield-leeds-contempt-court-facebook-video-a8592871.html

There was a deliberate media black out over the three trials, so that there was no possibility of any jury being influenced by the previous ones.  Did he care it nearly collapsed, no, as long as people kept following his attention politics, and clicking the links, and the $ keeps rolling in.

[maxjam]

11 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Sorry, you are very wrong there.  TR's actions almost caused the case to collapse.  He is still being investigated by the Courts as to how he will have to answer to his actions.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/tommy-robinson-prison-jail-grooming-gangs-huddersfield-leeds-contempt-court-facebook-video-a8592871.html

There was a deliberate media black out over the three trials, so that there was no possibility of any jury being influenced by the previous ones.  Did he care it nearly collapsed, no, as long as people kept following his attention politics, and clicking the links, and the $ keeps rolling in.

This is a recent case, I'm not talking about this I'm talking about the stuff he was doing years ago.

It has however already been ruled that he didn't nearly case this case to collapse in another trial - one of the convicted rapists appealed on those grounds and lost the case.

FYI he spent nearly 3 months inside for 'reporting' outside court (saying nothing more than was already reported in the media) and was released due to a technicality (I forget what now) but is being retried for the same offence on July 4th.  They have also now added something along the lines of  'causing anxiety to defendants arriving at court' to the charges which given what they did to innocent children over many years is laughable - but imo they just want to break his spirit and get him off the streets, which is only going to spur him and his followers on ?

[Carl Sagan]

When we only have one "politics thread" I wish there was a way to mute the stuff about Robinson so we could discuss what actually mattered. We've just seen the worst electoral performance in the history of both the Conservative and Labour parties. I say rejoice at that news! Tribalism makes sense in football but not in politics when to vote for a party because your parents did and their parents before them is a really lousy reason.

When UKIP won the European Elections five years ago it frightened Cameron into proposing the EU Referendum. In a few short weeks since its founding, the Brexit Party has done extraordinary things and blown that UKIP victory out of the water with a staggering performance, even allowing for turnout understandably being up in Remain areas and down in Leave areas, the latter with many leavers having given up on voting all together.

I say that because there's the bizarre spin in the media that somehow the remainers won. With its 29 MEPs the Brexit Party has now become the joint largest single party across all of the EU alongside Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.

If there were a general election with these same vote percentages, the Brexit Party would have a majority of more than 200 in Westminster. It's an extraordinary movement for democracy that has painted England and Wales turquoise outside London and Anglesey and also came second in Scotland despite many Brexiteers also supporting the SNP.

Here's the results map with MEP allocation per party:

[Highgate]

Isn't Remain slightly ahead of Brexit in the polls, if there were to be a second referendum?  I might be entirely wrong there.  

[Carl Sagan]

32 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Isn't Remain slightly ahead of Brexit in the polls, if there were to be a second referendum?  I might be entirely wrong there.  

Indeed. Just as Remain was ahead of Leave in the polls all the way up to the referendum. Here are those polls: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

Perhaps more people now want to remain than leave, but I wouldn't be so sure. I'd argue that under the incessant remain barrage of the remain media it's quite hard for some people to admit they'd vote to leave, but it's a very powerful feeling to enter the polling booth and put your cross in the box that you believe in. For most of the three years since the referendum there's been a remain campaign to overturn it with no alternative leave campaign because it was leave that had won said referendum and MPs had promised to deliver it. If we had a new campaign, the swift success of the Brexit Party shows what's possible in just a few short weeks.

[Highgate]

55 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Indeed. Just as Remain was ahead of Leave in the polls all the way up to the referendum. Here are those polls: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

Perhaps more people now want to remain than leave, but I wouldn't be so sure. I'd argue that under the incessant remain barrage of the remain media it's quite hard for some people to admit they'd vote to leave, but it's a very powerful feeling to enter the polling booth and put your cross in the box that you believe in. For most of the three years since the referendum there's been a remain campaign to overturn it with no alternative leave campaign because it was leave that had won said referendum and MPs had promised to deliver it. If we had a new campaign, the swift success of the Brexit Party shows what's possible in just a few short weeks.

Very true. it is hard to place too much faith in polls these days (even allowing for their stated margins of error).

However, in the original referendum the Leave side must have gathered votes from people with vastly differing views of what Brexit would look like, from the very hard to the very soft. If it is the case that Brexit becomes a No Deal Brexit, isn't it possible that some of those who voted Leave in the first referendum would hesitate at the prospect of a No Deal? Isn't this a realistic possibility? Therefore wouldn't a second referendum be worthwhile once it become clear what Brexit is actually going to look like, given that the question being asked in a second referendum would not be entirely the same as that asked in the first one.

[Carl Sagan]

11 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Very true. it is hard to place too much faith in polls these days (even allowing for their stated margins of error).

However, in the original referendum the Leave side must have gathered votes from people with vastly differing views of what Brexit would look like, from the very hard to the very soft. If it is the case that Brexit becomes a No Deal Brexit, isn't it possible that some of those who voted Leave in the first referendum would hesitate at the prospect of a No Deal? Isn't this a realistic possibility? Therefore wouldn't a second referendum be worthwhile once it become clear what Brexit is actually going to look like, given that the question being asked in a second referendum would not be entirely the same as that asked in the first one.

The reason I disagree is that, for those who followed the referendum, the messaging was largely the same from the big beasts on both sides. Cameron, Osborne, Clegg, Gove, Johnson, Leadsom all explicitly stated during the campaign that a vote to leave meant living the single market and jurisdiction of the ECJ and implicitly that it meant leaving the customs union as the arguments were whether we were better negotiating our own trade deals or going in with the EU bloc.

It was only later that remainers tried to characterize this as "hard Brexit" as part of the propaganda war. When Theresa May said "Brexit means Brexit" she was simply confirming that the vote was to leave the EU and its institutions. I think this is still the consistent view of Brexiteers. The three years since have been wasted by a remainer-defined government trying to negotiate what it saw as a damage-limitation Brexit keeping the UK as close as possible to single the EU but still trying to call it leaving. 

This was deeply unpopular among leavers who thought they'd won and their vote would be honoured. So much time's been wasted that now people simply want to get out and negotiate once we've left. Here's the most recent poll (from a tweeter very opposed to "no deal") 

 

I would say democracy only works if the losers accept the result. Had remainers fallen in behind the result we could have negotiated a good deal from the off, but because of the continued refusal to accept the referendum we're more likely to end up with no deal.

For most remainers the purpose of a second referendum isn't to ascertain what type of Brexit people want - it's plain and simple a mechanism to try to prevent it happening. In my opinion it's over for democracy if you have another referendum without ever implementing the original result. 

[Wolfie]

11 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

When we only have one "politics thread" I wish there was a way to mute the stuff about Robinson so we could discuss what actually mattered. We've just seen the worst electoral performance in the history of both the Conservative and Labour parties. I say rejoice at that news! Tribalism makes sense in football but not in politics when to vote for a party because your parents did and their parents before them is a really lousy reason.

When UKIP won the European Elections five years ago it frightened Cameron into proposing the EU Referendum. In a few short weeks since its founding, the Brexit Party has done extraordinary things and blown that UKIP victory out of the water with a staggering performance, even allowing for turnout understandably being up in Remain areas and down in Leave areas, the latter with many leavers having given up on voting all together.

I say that because there's the bizarre spin in the media that somehow the remainers won. With its 29 MEPs the Brexit Party has now become the joint largest single party across all of the EU alongside Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.

If there were a general election with these same vote percentages, the Brexit Party would have a majority of more than 200 in Westminster. It's an extraordinary movement for democracy that has painted England and Wales turquoise outside London and Anglesey and also came second in Scotland despite many Brexiteers also supporting the SNP.

Here's the results map with MEP allocation per party:

While I agree with most of that, it's hard to make meaningful calculations of what would happen with the turnout a little over half of what would normally be expected in a General Election.

This was a massive protest vote in favour of Brexit Party and the Lib Dems. In a General Election, would 30 odd percent of the electorate vote for a party with literally no policies other than a hard Brexit?. Bloody hope not anyway.

[McRamFan]

14 hours ago, maxjam said:

This is a recent case, I'm not talking about this I'm talking about the stuff he was doing years ago.

You sound like a forest fan.  You also make my point.  The guy is toxic, and people need to wake up and smell the roses.

He nearly collapsed two trials, what he did before just shows the guy only cares about his image.  It is attention politics, he gets the right wing funds and just interferes where he can and where he can make the most noise.  Once he has accumulated enough cash, name change and disappear to Canada. 

[maxjam]

28 minutes ago, Wolfie said:

This was a massive protest vote in favour of Brexit Party and the Lib Dems. In a General Election, would 30 odd percent of the electorate vote for a party with literally no policies other than a hard Brexit?. Bloody hope not anyway.

Normally I'd agree but with Brexit dominating everything the next election could very easily become a one issue election, everything feels as though its on hold until its sorted.

[RamNut]

Had to listen to an hour of Nigel Farage on LBC radio on the way back from Wembley.

have to admit that he is a good talker and there was of course a steady stream of callers blowing smoke up his brexit.

but the result of the euro elections staggered me.

His assessment is that the country is still 52/48 pro-brexit but that the Remain vote has been split.

 

 

[Norman]

26 minutes ago, RamNut said:

 

but the result of the euro elections staggered me.

His assessment is that the country is still 52/48 pro-brexit but that the Remain vote has been split.

 

 

And the Leave areas had low turnouts.

I am surprised after 3 years of campaigning, of a movement like that of the People's referendum, and the figures running it, that the Remain side polled so badly.

This was the chance to get that second referendum. To show that the polls were correct and Leave voters have changed their minds now they know the 'facts'.

All those 15-16 year olds who couldn't vote in the referndum could now vote and show their colours.

It was such a strange result. A party 6 weeks old, standing on nothing but a No Deal, with a low turnout in its main areas managed to get the same votes as Labour and Lib Dems put together. 

Where was the Remain side. All that money thrown at it. 3 or 4 different parties with Budgets bigger than the Brexit Party's. 3 or 4 times the air time, all with huge existing member bases. 3 years of polls and campaigning to stop Brexit.

And we are left with them trying to tally each others totals up. 

Actually can't believe it.

[Stive Pesley]

Predictions for the Tory Leadership? I've a feeling we might get Michael Gove ?

[Wolfie]

27 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

Predictions for the Tory Leadership? I've a feeling we might get Michael Gove ?

Not really enthused by any of them, if I'm honest.

Sajid Javid probably would be my choice.

I'm sure I read somewhere a few weeks ago that Boris will get a lot of support amongst MP's but the membership won't vote for him. Gove then, on the basis that it'll likely come down to those 2 and then the "anyone but Boris" voters go for him.

[ramit]

As an outsider looking in, i am seeing a similarity in the situation facing British voters to what occurred in Iceland after our bank crash.  Here the media, the government and it's institutions and called on "specialists" all leaned one way, that it was madness to stand up to the power of the EU countries determined to bend us to their will.  Constant fear mongering was the order of the day.  Iceland would be isolated, no one would do business with us, we would become the Cuba of the north and so on and so forth.  The nation was deeply divided, families were nearly and sometimes fully torn asunder, brother against brother, mother against daughter.  It ran deep and passions were easily ignited over the smallest details, similar in ferocity to arguing about religion.  Party allegiances meant little, the division ran through it all like a red line.

 Simultaneously, EU countries threatened us on a near daily basis with legal actions and painted doom scenarios of a no way out situation should we not give in.  They even had the gall to question the legitimacy of a referendum of the people to decide their own future on a case of such immense importance to them all.  This interference in our internal affairs turned out to be a big mistake, for people generally oppose such blatant foreign antagonisms and the more threats we received, the greater number of people became determined to stand up to them.  In the end there was a referendum on whether the nation should accept financial responsibility for the downfall of our very dubiously and even criminally run private banks, the outcome being a rejection of such acceptance come hell or high water.  The majority gave the EU the finger.  The arguments and legal cases ran on for a number of years, the country still divided, but as our financial resurgence gathered momentum, the political landscape slowly became calmer.  The same political parties who took side with the EU are still at it though and continue to push their agenda of Iceland joining the EU once and for all, but it is not going to happen, as voters have a longer memory as a result of the serious turmoil they lived through and the lessons learned.

i watch proceedings in GB with considerable interest.

[McRamFan]

Hmm, BJ off to court

http://www.cityam.com/278278/boris-johnson-face-court-summons-over-claims-he-lied-misled

[G STAR RAM]

2 hours ago, McRamFan said:

You sound like a forest fan.  You also make my point.  The guy is toxic, and people need to wake up and smell the roses.

He nearly collapsed two trials, what he did before just shows the guy only cares about his image.  It is attention politics, he gets the right wing funds and just interferes where he can and where he can make the most noise.  Once he has accumulated enough cash, name change and disappear to Canada. 

Ok let's forget about who is making the point.

What did you make of the Oldham political rally, where the police marched 2 to 3 hundred Muslim youths, many with their faces covered by balaclavas and scarves, and stood by as rocks and bricks rained down on women and children? 

Don't worry, I know you'll just ignore the point and just say that it was TR that incited it. 

In the interest of fairness, one of them trials that he supposedly nearly collapsed had already concluded and was at the sentencing stage, as already reported by the mainstream media.

[maxjam]

4 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Hmm, BJ off to court

http://www.cityam.com/278278/boris-johnson-face-court-summons-over-claims-he-lied-misled

I know its the politics thread and I clicked the link before I read it but my initial reaction was who has Bradley Johnson bit now...

[eddie]

9 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I would say democracy only works if the losers accept the result. Had remainers fallen in behind the result we could have negotiated a good deal from the off, but because of the continued refusal to accept the referendum we're more likely to end up with no deal.

For most remainers the purpose of a second referendum isn't to ascertain what type of Brexit people want - it's plain and simple a mechanism to try to prevent it happening. In my opinion it's over for democracy if you have another referendum without ever implementing the original result. 

Remember this, and who said it?

Quote

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."

 

[Curtains]

..