The Politics Thread 2019

[WhiteHorseRam]

12 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

(Dreams - 'Hmm . perchance Nanny will have buttered some scrummy tea cakes for tiffin ...')

[G STAR RAM]

23 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

I just wanted to know whether you trust the current Prime Minister. From your posts here (and I realise that this is scant evidence) you seem to broadly support him, which in turn would suggest a level of trust that will allow you to follow his lead.

I support his attempt to get us out of the EU. If he does that obviously he will gain support and trust as he will have delivered on his promises. 

Beyond that I await to see what results he delivers, as an outsider it would appear he delivered when Mayor of London.

I have a massive degree of scepticism with all politicians though.

[Andicis]

4 minutes ago, WhiteHorseRam said:

I said that it would be done on the understanding that this was the last call, and as both sides reckon they will win - time to put their money where there mouth is.

In truth BREXIT is the miserable gift that will just keep giving ….

If Remain had won the first Ref would the Leave folks just shut up and gone away? - No. 

The Remainers obviously haven't accepted the result since 2016 and actually seem to be getting stronger.

There are no winners here.

But a GE now would be a bastardized second Ref  - so I say let's just have a 2nd Ref. Winners takes all. 

 

The first one was done in that understanding. It was a once in a generation result. It hasn't been a generation, it's been 3 years. They haven't actually done what they said in the first referendum yet, so are you saying the 17.4 million votes no longer count?

[WhiteHorseRam]

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

The first one was done in that understanding. It was a once in a generation result. It hasn't been a generation, it's been 3 years. They haven't actually done what they said in the first referendum yet, so are you saying the 17.4 million votes no longer count?

What I'm saying is a GE is the wrong route to take. We are stuck, and need to revisit the question.

If you broke your arm - you want it put in a cast (Ref 2) - drinking a smoothie and having a foot rub won't help (GE).

17.4 million people will count again.

How can more democracy be a bad thing? And its back to the people - no MPs involved.

[Andicis]

1 minute ago, WhiteHorseRam said:

What I'm saying is a GE is the wrong route to take. We are stuck, and need to revisit the question.

If you broke your arm - you want it put in a cast (Ref 2) - drinking a smoothie and having a foot rub won't help (GE).

17.4 million people will count again.

How can more democracy be a bad thing? And its back to the people - no MPs involved.

Because if remain are to win, leave would ask for a third referendum. If leave is to win, why would remain listen to it anyway, they didn't the first time. MP's in parliament need to accept what people voted for, and instead of trying to obstruct us from ever leaving, accept that's what's happening and be proactive in trying to get a deal. It won't happen. But that's the way forward.

[Wolfie]

21 minutes ago, Andicis said:

And when one side wins, why should the other side accept it? The first referendum hasn't been respected, so why would a second? 

Not through lack of effort IMO. A consensus of wanting to leave with a deal has got us to where we are now, with so many conflicting opinions as to what kind of Brexit it should be. Parliament is paralysed with no majority for anything - except that No Deal is a bad idea.

Get any random group (say 20+) of the public together and ask them to agree on what Brexit should look like. They won't be able to. How can we expect MP's to do the same?.

[Andicis]

Just now, Van Wolfie said:

Not through lack of effort IMO. A consensus of wanting to leave with a deal has got us to where we are now, with so many conflicting opinions as to what kind of Brexit it should be. Parliament is paralysed with no majority for anything - except that No Deal is a bad idea.

Get any random group (say 20+) of the public together and ask them to agree on what Brexit should look like. They won't be able to. How can we expect MP's to do the same?.

Which is fair. But that's what they have to do. Doing another referendum is for me, a bad idea. Because it just means to me that parliament have ignored the people. 

Thing is, Parliament are really tying the Government's hand, because going into negotiations with less cards on the table because your own Parliament won't allow you to use them to negotiate isn't great for forcing the EU to give us a good deal. 

[sonofmidnight]

If the remainers get a slim majority next time will the leavers accept it? They have every good reason not to. So what next best of 3, 5, 7 and beyond? I can see me being dead before it's sorted. They couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery this lot.

[Ramshankered]

9 minutes ago, Dappled Ram said:

If the remainers get a slim majority next time will the leavers accept it? They have every good reason not to. So what next best of 3, 5, 7 and beyond? I can see me being dead before it's sorted. They couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery this lot.

Part the problem with the original referendum was the lack of any clear boundaries around what counts as a winning majority – hence why we have the current status quo. The winning margin was so narrow, it's quite understandable that the two sides have been in gridlock ever since. 

A future People's Vote (if it were to happen) would have to have a clearer "winning majority" structure to ensure the result is decisive – as well as a clear vision for what happens next if it were to end in "a draw". Personally think it's only way you can get one side to accept the result if it goes against them. 

[WhiteHorseRam]

17 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Because if remain are to win, leave would ask for a third referendum. If leave is to win, why would remain listen to it anyway, they didn't the first time. MP's in parliament need to accept what people voted for, and instead of trying to obstruct us from ever leaving, accept that's what's happening and be proactive in trying to get a deal. It won't happen. But that's the way forward.

Everyone feels 'cheated' somewhere along the line.

A 2nd Ref would go a ways to killing this off I think - also it would head off the uncomfortable truth for Leavers … in 10/15/20 yrs time we will be dong this again …. to re-join. ?

I have accepted the Leave result myself , but No Deal is crazy .. and it's also lazy.

My point was grasp the nettle with a 2nd Ref and don't carry out a huge act of further ****ing around by mixing it in with a GE. You will then have a second group of people feeling cheated then .. 'Oh, that GE was twisted by BREXIT, we never got a look in, etc'

[WhiteHorseRam]

17 minutes ago, Dappled Ram said:

If the remainers get a slim majority next time will the leavers accept it? They have every good reason not to. So what next best of 3, 5, 7 and beyond? I can see me being dead before it's sorted. They couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery this lot.

Its great news, I have recently bought a Voting slip factory.

[Andicis]

Just now, WhiteHorseRam said:

Everyone feels 'cheated' somewhere along the line.

A 2nd Ref would go a ways to killing this off I think - also it would head off the uncomfortable truth for Leavers … in 10/15/20 yrs time we will be dong this again …. to re-join. ?

I have accepted the Leave result myself , but No Deal is crazy .. and it's also lazy.

My point was grasp the nettle with a 2nd Ref and don't carry out a huge act of further ****ing around by mixing it in with a GE. You will then have a second group of people feeling cheated then .. 'Oh, that GE was twisted by BREXIT, we never got a look in, etc'

But I don't think a second referendum stops people feeling cheated.

If remain wins it, leave voters feel cheated. And the cycle continues. I think we have to just shut up and get on with Brexit, but it's clear Parliament have no intention of doing that. Therefore, a GE would be a fine alternative I think, just due to the fact we're essentially gridlocked and with no real way out, other than one. 

[ketteringram]

In a second referendum, if leave were to win , I still don't think any leave deal would get through parliament.

[WhiteHorseRam]

34 minutes ago, Andicis said:

But I don't think a second referendum stops people feeling cheated.

If remain wins it, leave voters feel cheated. And the cycle continues. I think we have to just shut up and get on with Brexit, but it's clear Parliament have no intention of doing that. Therefore, a GE would be a fine alternative I think, just due to the fact we're essentially gridlocked and with no real way out, other than one. 

Well, we will have to agree to disagree then.?

People like feeling cheated/wronged … I have never seen a newspaper headline that said 'Everyone is Happy'/'Country on track for best year ever'. Misery and strife sells. All media are like pigs in **** right now.

But trust me, there are no 'fine' alternatives.

[Bubbles]

heres an idea lads, why don't we all head to the winchester, have a pint, and wait for this all to blow over.

[cstand]

2 minutes ago, Squid said:

heres an idea lads, why don't we all head to the winchester, have a pint, and wait for this all to blow over.

Let's go no deal as per referendum result and uphold our democracy then go for a pint. 

[FindernRam]

The Ref 2 argument sounds comforting and almost persuasive particularly to Remainers and possibly undecideds.

The big problem is:

What wording do you use.

Which order do you print the choices

Who agrees the wording (This lot couldn't agree the font to use)

What rules do you use to decide the winner. The moment you turn it from a binary choice( leave-stay) into multiple choice you are in a minefield, particularly if you have multiple leave options but only one stay. Leave with a split vote could lose to a minority stay vote. Of course that's what Ref 1 losers want.

 

[FindernRam]

Incidentally if we stay in longer, we have a load of Leave MEPS in Brussels to cause mayhem for 5 years. I hope! You could argue that Ref 2 happened at the Euro elections and that was pretty decisive. or is that yet another unwanted result brushed aside.

[ariotofmyown]

3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Good comeback. 

But to be a fair comparison, youd probably have to offer me over the asking price and advise me that you're not prepared to negotiate.

We both share a house. You own all of it and I just rent one bedroom, but use all the facilities in other rooms. I also act like I own the place.

I want to move out of your house and buy your damp and cold garage at the bottom of the garden. But at least it would be mine and I can live in it how I wish without you nagging me.

You offer me 10k for the garage and I can still use the facilities in the house for a large reduction in rent.

I say I'll give you 1k and want the usage of facilities for free.

You say you can't do that as the other tenants would want similar discounts.

I say if you don't accept then I will sleep on the street and be homeless and you'll lose both the 1k for the garage sale and the rent for facilities usage.

You say fine. I live on the street and get ill. I eventually knock on your door and ask for my own room back. You say yes at double the rent. I accept. 

[Wolfie]

15 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

The Ref 2 argument sounds comforting and almost persuasive particularly to Remainers and possibly undecideds.

The big problem is:

What wording do you use.

Which order do you print the choices

Who agrees the wording (This lot couldn't agree the font to use)

What rules do you use to decide the winner. The moment you turn it from a binary choice( leave-stay) into multiple choice you are in a minefield, particularly if you have multiple leave options but only one stay. Leave with a split vote could lose to a minority stay vote. Of course that's what Ref 1 losers want.

 

How about:

1. Remain in the EU

2. Leave - with Teresa May's Deal (or another version of soft Brexit - Norway+?)

3. Leave - Hard Brexit, no deal.

1st and 2nd preferences scoring 1 and 0.5 respectively. If no option wins over 50% of the first preference vote, count second preferences and highest score wins?