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Is this season a write-off already?


Bris Vegas

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1 minute ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Bertie Mee said to Bill Shankley have you seen the North Bank Highbury? 

Shanks said no I don't think so but I've been to the pop side, Derby!

Not seen,,, heard of

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A lot of people, myself included, pretty much wrote off last season before a ball was kicked. I think most of us expected mid-table mediocrity, when in fact we turned out to be fairly effective, if a little dull.

Now, with a new manager with new ideas and more-or-less the same squad with perhaps one or two loanees, there may be grounds for cautious optimism?

Or, it could be that we have an aging squad and a rookie manager who finds himself out of his depth.

As always time will tell. Let's just give the manager and players time and we shall see what we shall see.

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12 hours ago, McLovin said:

The expected goals statistics also backs up your point, which had us finishing midtable much of the season. The thread below was when we were second at the time.

 

You realise, I assume, that "expected goals" is based on "chances created" (determined by the league's average chances:goals ratio) and "chances created" is dependent on style of play. Which is likely going to be completely different?

It tells us little about the quality of individuals.

In fact, scoring more than your "expected goals" is actually evidence of high quality finishing - so if it tells us anything, it tells us that our finishers are better than the league average.

Expected Goals is an incredibly irrelevant statistic across regime/style changes.

 

Not saying Bris is wrong, necessarily, but to be "backed up" by this statistic is to be wearing armour comprised of overcooked pasta.

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I don’t think the OP genuinely believes what he wrote.  I think he wrote it to be a. Deliberately provocative (no harm in that in a forum for debate) and b. In order to be able to put a marker down for his football genius if/when the 50/50 chance he is right comes to pass.  Nothing better than being able to say “Look at me, I told you so in July!”  

I think  the OP is bright enough to know that now is far too early to be able to conclude one way or the other about next season.  In fact, I doubt you can really conclude whether a season is a “write-off” until you are some way through it, but even then there are many many examples of teams starting well/badly and finishing strongly/weakly.  He is also bright enough to know that if we sign a few players before the window shuts, then he can distance himself from these comments and his ‘reputation’ won’t be tarnished!

I personally have no problem if this season is one of ‘transition’ (we have a lot of those ?) but I do hope to see a higher tempo, more dynamic, more aggressive and more entertaining form of football.  If I get that and we finish outside the top 6, I’ll be disappointed but not gutted and I wouldn’t conclude it was a write-off either. 

If we play like we did last season and finish outside the top 6 than I’ll be angry, because there has to be some up-side or benefit to watching the turgid crud we had to put up with.  

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23 minutes ago, LazloW said:

I personally have no problem if this season is one of ‘transition’ (we have a lot of those ?) but I do hope to see a higher tempo, more dynamic, more aggressive and more entertaining form of football.  If I get that and we finish outside the top 6, I’ll be disappointed but not gutted and I wouldn’t conclude it was a write-off either. 

I go along with that completely if we don't get regularly thrashed. We will soon know how it will shape up.

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17 hours ago, belperram9 said:

Completely agree mate. Becareful sharing this kind of opinion on the forum as you just get slated. Relegation fodder mark my words. 

Why are people from Belper always so negative???  Every Radio Derby phone in there's old twonk saying everything's crap, despite winning 3-0.  Do they put something in the water round your way??

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"I want more entertaining football"

As do I, but I cant go along with the sentiment from some quarters that it will be accepted at the expense of a mid table finish. 

That suggests losing as many as we win. Maybe its me, but I find it difficult to be entertained having lost. Again. Perhaps I could say that about a team I dont support, but  have too much passion invested in DCFC for defeats to wash over me as they were "entertaining"

For me Rowetts season of underwhelming performances, but in the whole decent results,can be tolerated solely on the back of winning. 

Not so sure despite a few saying so, that would work if flip reversed, and losses were brushed over due to somehow being entertained??!!

What I do have is an expectation of what I think will be acheived (I'm no blind faither either) and I will measure the season from that. 

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20 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

No new signings

A new inexperienced manager with little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market. 

An ageing squad only declining in ability

Championship rivals spending big and improving their squad

Half the current squad out of contract next summer - not exactly a good base to build around

I don’t blame Lampard for any of this. It’s not like the Nigel Pearson situation where he waited until the season started and then panicked because the players didn’t fit his system.

This upcoming season already seems like a waste of time when half the squad will be gone in 12 months and it’s not good enough for promotion. We don’t have a Hughes or Hendrick to build around either.

Is this season a write off?

In a word NO. In my opinion to even suggest or ask this question even before a ball is kicked is very silly indeed.

It may turn out to be a transition period, but let's face it Frank has picked up a team that has been mashed together over the last 5 years and several managers. More like the dirty dozen than an organised bunch, so it is how he managers this from here on in.

The Dirty dozen won in the end.

But please at least let the season get underway and then decide. 

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20 hours ago, Nuwtfly said:

Some frightening thoughts, and I fear some may well be true, but there is one part I would disagree with:

I think we could build our team around George Thorne. First thing I'd be doing if I was the Derby manager is looking straight back to when we were at our best, and that was under that 4-3-3 under McClaren. Thorne was arguably key to everything in that system, certainly in regards to the defence and playing out through the midfield - and he's still at the club!

I'd write his name down on a team-sheet and go from there...

As good as thorne’s passing is though, you are only as good as the players around you. Before, he had Hendrick, a younger Bryson, Hughes, Russell and ward doing lots of movements off the ball which made his job a lot easier as he could look up and pass it forward quickly. This current team as no-one who are as good making runs off the ball, which would lead to seeing a similar Thorne to how we did last season.

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20 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

No new signings

A new inexperienced manager with little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market. 

An ageing squad only declining in ability

Championship rivals spending big and improving their squad

Half the current squad out of contract next summer - not exactly a good base to build around

I don’t blame Lampard for any of this. It’s not like the Nigel Pearson situation where he waited until the season started and then panicked because the players didn’t fit his system.

This upcoming season already seems like a waste of time when half the squad will be gone in 12 months and it’s not good enough for promotion. We don’t have a Hughes or Hendrick to build around either.

No new signings....yet.

It'll start to look different on Monday. Or the Monday after that. Or the next one.

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This reminds me of the time I called out Pearson before the season had started and insinuated he should go and was hammered.

Potentially crippling problems can exist before a ball has been kicked and there’s nothing wrong with pointing them out. 

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As of this moment we have one of the best defences in the league, the only change to that defence may yet be forsyth.

Again, we have a very strong midfield, arguably strengthened by the return of Bryson, Elsnik and quite possibly Butterfield. 

5/6 attacking players that have scored at least a dozen goals in the last few seasons. And all of this is before we sell a player that scored a silly amount of goals for us last season. Either next year we still have Vydra or the money we get for him will go on someone with similar if not better ability. 

Don't panic, don't be pessimistic, hop on the Lampard train and see what happens. 

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