Asanovic70

I wish I had the confidence of the 54ish% who don’t think we’ll be relegated and the drugs of the 6% who think we’ll finish top or second! 
 

Pre-season starts in 3 weeks or so?
Ownership unresolved, several players contracts unresolved, along with huge gaps in the squad.
And that’s without talking into consideration the factors outside our control, or abilities of the management/coaching staff and ending one of the worst run of results in any division.
It doesn’t look good. We could do ok and turn things around quickly, but at this moment in time it’s looking like another avoid relegation job.

You've misread the thread. The poll is where people think we'd finish at as things currently stand. It isnt where do you think we'll finish after buying half a dozen players. People are being realistic and saying we'll go down with our current situation and most will reassess if we build a new team.

Must be a difficult job for the recruitment team, one list for 'embargo signings', another for 'no-takeover' signings, a third for 'local-consortium takeover' signings and a fourth for 'Spanish/Saudi etc. £20m players, dodgy-deals-money no object' signings.

Of course this is all subject to summer transfers, points deduction etc. Unless our recruitment team has a barnstormer I think we'll really struggle this season. I can't see us atm finishing higher than 15th (being optimistic) and could easily see us finishing bottom of the pile this time around. I don't rate the manager at all nor the coaching staff. To top it all off, we're under severe financial restrictions and our squad is falling apart at the seams. Just bedding in so many players is a massive challenge that I'm not convinced we can meet anyway and the players we're currently linked with scream relegation battle. 

I agree that Rooney had 35 games, but we have to remember the background circumstances, the protracted takeover, injury to Bielik, a turning point, the January transfer window.
I think Rooney disappointed as his tenure went on, however. He has shown glimpses as a boss, he seemed to have a better, pragmatic grasp of the division than Cocu, but our end of season run was terrible. However, I think the problems affecting the club go beyond him and we are a club in crisis.
At this point of time, sides in/around us have brought in additions (Huddersfield, Hull, Luton), we haven't addressed on-going issues (contracts), are under an embargo, & could face a points deduction. We finished with 44 points, I think our lowest tally under Clough was 49. The bookies have us at the longest odds I can remember, down with Peterborough & Blackpool at 50-1. Interestingly, Forest have also been similarly quiet in the transfer market.
A lot now depends on variables such as a possible takeover, incoming transfers etc, but at this point of time, if we can avoid relegation, we will be doing well as we're starting from a low base. We were the division's lowest scorers (36) & haven't addressed this issue or brought in more creativity. 
With Rooney dividing opinion (probably reflected in the stands by returning fans), you do wonder what he will gain by staying if the situation remains as it is. If Rooney walks or is removed from his post, I can't see many managers turning our situation round, there's too much background noise/instability (Sheff W last season, three permanent managers & a caretaker, Richard Curtis' sequel to 4 Weddings). It is asking a lot for someone like Bielik, returning from a second bad injury, to turn around our season single-handedly. 

I agree that Rooney had 35 games, but we have to remember the background circumstances, the protracted takeover, injury to Bielik, a turning point, the January transfer window.
I think Rooney disappointed as his tenure went on, however. He has shown glimpses as a boss, he seemed to have a better, pragmatic grasp of the division than Cocu, but our end of season run was terrible. However, I think the problems affecting the club go beyond him and we are a club in crisis.
At this point of time, sides in/around us have brought in additions (Huddersfield, Hull, Luton), we haven't addressed on-going issues (contracts), are under an embargo, & could face a points deduction. We finished with 44 points, I think our lowest tally under Clough was 49. The bookies have us at the longest odds I can remember, down with Peterborough & Blackpool at 50-1. Interestingly, Forest have also been similarly quiet in the transfer market.
A lot now depends on variables such as a possible takeover, incoming transfers etc, but at this point of time, if we can avoid relegation, we will be doing well as we're starting from a low base. We were the division's lowest scorers (36) & haven't addressed this issue or brought in more creativity. 
With Rooney dividing opinion (probably reflected in the stands by returning fans), you do wonder what he will gain by staying if the situation remains as it is. If Rooney walks or is removed from his post, I can't see many managers turning our situation round, there's too much background noise/instability (Sheff W last season, three permanent managers & a caretaker, Richard Curtis' sequel to 4 Weddings). It is asking a lot for someone like Bielik, returning from a second bad injury, to turn around our season single-handedly. 

We finished below Luton, Coventry, Huddersfield, Preston, Blackburn and Millwall et al.
I think the three relegated teams with £170 million incoming are the least of our concerns.
Yes, the system is not a perfect one. But this hasn’t stopped relegated clubs being outperformed before and nor will it in the future.
We’d have hope if the club was being run well and we had a competent manager in place.

One player who I think will genuinely be an exceptional signing is Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu. Free signing out of contract from Luton who’s been v v v good this season, only 27 too.

I can see Mel donning his Spider-Man costume as we speak. Actually, I've just seen a bloke flying through the air like the famous web crawler until he crashed into one of our floodlights.
I think you need to work a bit more on your spider-sense, Mel.

With ownership comes responsibility. 
Now, let me make myself crystal clear, I am not kicking a guy when he’s down, I’ve gone on record posting I’d buy him a pint anytime and I stand by that.
However, he would have been more that happy to have been the recipient of the crowd’s adulation had things gone to plan. He’s not averse to a drop of hero worship, who would be ?
A big problem for Mel is he is owner/custodian of something a lot of people have an emotional investment in, some, a lifetimes commitment. If he was trying to get rid of his executive Lear jet because he fell on hard times, it would be none of our business/of no interest to us.
But this is is a commodity that has been a part of the town, then later, the city for well over a hundred years and this is where the responsibility bit comes in for me. Just because it’s all gone Pete Tong for him does not mean he should leave the club riddled with debt which was accrued on his watch. I believe it’s his duty to make the club as attractive a proposition for a reputable prospective buyer at the lowest outlay possible to him.
There is a saying down here that goes “Pay up and look big” and that’s what he really be thinking about.

I like the analogy.
I think for paying gas, electric and water bills on an empty property could represent paying wages to Ikechi Anya.

The poor mismanagement from the ownership on players wages and some ridiculous transfer fees need to be questioned. The club clearly in the past did not have the correct balance on spending, all triggered by an awful recruitment policy.
The division's worst recruitment team has never been reviewed or significantly changed even when reoccurring expensive mistakes have been made. No lessons had been learnt prior to last summer. Players with no resale value being signed for millions and being sold for peanuts or being released. Another 10 million quid out the door this summer out of contract on freebies as it stands, how is this acceptable? It is no wonder the club are stuck in this media circus of trials and negative press coverage. I'd rather we spent within our means then be crippled with debt and be stuck in a hole for years to come. Like having a high credit card limit and banking on a massive pay day to clear the debt. It was a huge risk. And now as a club, we must face the consequences of our failures.
If Mel Morris was not a local businessman, the supporters would have protested about his ownership by now. Why should we keep giving this man a free pass? Because he's invested his big money and money is everything? I appreciate that he had a dream and I am sad for him that it hasn't worked out. Without FFP I reckon we'd have been promoted eventually. But why should his irresponsibility as an owner be acceptable. He could put our club into administration which threatens jobs and points deductions.
Your number one job as an owner is to ensure the club is sustainable for generations. Any rich muppet with money can go out and splash the cash. It's what you do with it that matters.
 

The big spending Derby thing is a bit of a myth.
Other than a mad 6 months our transfer spend has been pretty minimal as Crown jewels have been traded in to develop the squad. 
Its the wage bill that has absolutely crippled us.
It was understandable to break the bank to try and keep the 2013/14 together but the contracts that were handed out after that were just ridiculous and completely unsustainable. 

Other teams have also not done it and are prospering now. 

I think that's the issue. No problem with going for it..but we were never creative..we didn't have an overseas scouting team we didn't seem to have anyone expertly looking over lower league players..we didn't have stats guys identifying undervalued potential...we pretty much just bought high and sold low. It was amateur hour ..that was the big problem..

Portsmouth and Sunderland gambled big too.
Mel bought the club, and is entitled in many ways to spend as little or as much money he likes to chase his dream. He however had/has, in my view, a responsibility to have a long term plan to protect the best interests of our club, and as custodian to always be in a position to ensure that funds are available so the club does not go under. He remains a very rich man fortunately, so therefore there really is no reason why he should not keep funding the club until he has passed the baton to a new ‘fit and proper’ owner.
Spending money wasn’t really the problem Curtains. Having apparently no strategic plan (other than something about the ‘Derby way’), no decent (or at least assertive) senior executives, and hiring a rag tag bunch of managers has been the problem, changing our shape, systems, and playing personnel every managerial change. 

If we'd have spent on the right sort of players, then it would have been a gamble worth taking. Most of the signings we made though were badly planned, overpriced and really bad value. The likes of Butterfield, Blackman, Camara, Anya, Shackell, Malone and Jozefzoon were all ridiculously overpriced. Even Johnson and Waghorn were way too expensive too. That for me is Mel's biggest mistake of all, having the wrong scouting setup. 

We were Barnsley when we lost to QPR.
It will be interesting to see how they respond if they lose in the playoffs. 
We went with offering Premier League wanted players a Premier League salary and long contract to stay, in the hope we'd be next. The sort of decisions that lead to Richard Keogh picking up £24k a week, before bonuses!
I'd bet Barnsley go a different way, as Brentford have before them. Realise players maximum value, and replace them with the next hungry young thing from a lower league.
 
 
 

I believe Rotherham have been promoted and relegated 2x each in the last 4 seasons, we've managed to match that in one game, today.

Am I the only one that thinks he’d make a top manager? 

Thank you Mel for bringing Wayne Rooney to this football club. We've been the envy of every club for the last 18 months and they're all still seething. If someone had told me 6 months ago that we'd be basking in 21st with an insurmountable 4 point cushion I'd have declared them the ultimate optimist, but it's really happening! This is such an exciting time for the football club! I remember almost falling asleep during the lucky 4-1 victory over Brighton in the play offs all those years ago, but look how exciting we are now.

I think the players available at a manager's disposal also dictate tactics. You can't make players do things they can't do (their limitations), you try to play to their strengths. Here, some criticism may be levelled at Rooney at how he has deployed Knight. There's a lack of pace in the side, for instance. (I certainly agree with your comment about recruitment) The likes of Jozwiak may indeed look better in another side, but that's because he'd probably receive better service (if playing in a side with more creative midfielders) rather than feeding off scraps.
I pointed out the BBC stats because it highlights the deficiencies in our squad. 
As for managers, football is a small world, I'm sure clubs make overtures (via agents) to out of work/available managers even when the present manager is in situ; they sound each other out, or say, in the case of Cardiff, a good relationship continues between the owners & the former boss, Warnock, they ask his advice and he may point them to McCarthy.
The point I'm trying to say is that while there are a limited number of jobs, & managers can't be choosy, how is anyone to know that Wilder would have wanted to manage us in our current situation (on & off-field)? The same with McCarthy. Both may have passed up the opportunity to wait for something better.
I'm not arguing with your point about regression and hints of desperation, it has been immensely disappointing. It may be that the manager cannot do anymore with what he has. I feel Rooney is counting/gambling on Rotherham running out of gas which is dangerous. We need to start helping ourselves.

Shots within the entirety of the penalty area aren't particularly high: 268 shots, which is 19th of 24 where the average is about 293.
Having said that, we're 8th for shots from within the 6-yard box, with 42 of our 268 penalty box shots being taken from that area, so the shots we are taking from within the area are generally ones that are higher quality chances. Different models use different stats, but I know xG modellers tend to average a shot from this area as about a 1 in 3 chance of goal (shots from the 18-yard box tend to be about 1 in 8 and outside the box about 1 in 33, so you could consider a shot from within 6 yards as 2.5x as valuable as a shot from within 18 yards).