Realistic expectations for this season.

[jimtastic56]

59 minutes ago, RodleyRam said:

There's clearly still some transfer business to be done. If we can replicate the quality we got in so far I think we will be alright. Hard to see where the goals/creativity are coming from at the moment and we look a little slow at the back. Definitely need to strengthen with some genuine quality but I think PW knows that.

All that said, I expect incoming quality and for us to grind out enough results to sit around 16th. The major factor being squad togetherness and overall club stability, which I think counts for a lot in the Championship.

Much has been said about Warne's Championship pedigree but I think that assumes he hasn't learnt and isn't improving as a manager, which seems unrealistic to me. Last season showed that he can be tactical astute, change games through substitutions etc. All of which were criticisms in his first season. That's all to say that people saying his Championship record is poor and translating that into this season completely ignores the fact that it is possible for people to improve their performance with experience and better resources.

Staying clear of relegation and playing a more attractive brand of football would be a good step in the right direction for me. Nervous but excited for the season to start now.

We won’t know how slow our back 4 are until they come up against Championship “Speedboats”. Have we signed 3 defensive midfield players to protect them ? Now comes the expensive part of football. Goals / Assists . 

[Comrade 86]

Jokes aside, I'd love a mid-table finish as a starting point from which we could try to push on next season. Recruiting the right 12 players in a single window was always going to be a nigh impossible brief, so I'd certainly expect us to be pretty active in the winter window too.

Hard to be dogmatic about the current status quo, but assuming we get JWZ and another striking option as a minimum, I'd hope we can avoid a season-long relegation battle. I actually think Yates looks very sharp and FWIW, I'd be ok with him until Xmas if the right players are not available at the right prices.

[Old Spalding Ram]

As of yesterday the Opta prediction supercomputer has us finishing 19th.

…………….think I’d take that at the moment.

 

[Rams forever]

Staying up and playing some decent football will do for me! 

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

9 hours ago, jimtastic56 said:

We won’t know how slow our back 4 are until they come up against Championship “Speedboats”. Have we signed 3 defensive midfield players to protect them ? Now comes the expensive part of football. Goals / Assists . 

At champ level the speedboats are generally not the best footballers (outside top few sides) else they would be playing PL. So I doubt it will be most weeks that we have to worry about this. (I am seriously hoping)

[Ambitious]

Just now, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

At champ level the speedboats are generally not the best footballers (outside top few sides) else they would be playing PL. So I doubt it will be most weeks that we have to worry about this. (I am seriously hoping)

This is usually the case, although due to the spending power the top clubs in the division tend to have excellent strikers - Haji Wright is lightening and a good footballer by all accounts. It’s not common, certainly at the bottom end of the division. I think every team believes they’re lacking a goalscorer, apart from Coventry and maybe Leeds.

[Ambitious]

In the phase of predictions/projections for the forthcoming season - I have found something surprising with regards to Oxford. 

Des Buckingham was the manager for their last 30 league games and I wanted to see how it measured up to us in the same timeframe. 

Oxford were the 13th best team in League One in that spell: 44pts, 50 goals scored, 41 conceded: +9 GD. 
We were the best team in League One in that spell: 68pts, 52 goals scored, 18 conceded: +32 GD. 

I know they've made some smart signings in the window and given themselves a chance, but surprised to see there was such a disparity. Portsmouth were quite a fair way back from us too: 59pts, 50 goals scored, 31 conceded: +19 GD. They were the second best team in the league, though, which shows (how s*** our start was) but ultimately how dominant we were for the final two-thirds of the season. 

[maydrakin]

To be honest, anything above staying up and being competitive in every game would be a bonus.

[Marriot Ram99]

Would people really be happy with 21st place , 48 points, a -20 goal difference and 7 home wins? I know I wouldnt, if we are s*** but stay up I wouldnt be pleased as I think we should be putting in foundations for future seasons as long term we dont want to be at the bottom end of the league closer to bottom than top 6.I think Clowes may sack Warne if he backs him with some decent signings and our performance was around that.

[TheRamOfSwad]

On 05/08/2024 at 09:58, IlsonDerby said:

NTT20 podcast have us down as 22nd this season. 
 

Though they have Blackburn, Oxford and Pompey much higher than us. 
 

I wouldn’t swap a single bit of oxfords business for our business this window so far and we were better than them in every department last season. I’m confident we finish above Oxford, just need two more teams to get above! 

Quite a few online podcasts and pundits have tipped us as one of the 3 teams to go down but I think Warne is settled into Derby and he knows his whats is required of this league and i can see him stepping up

If we sign Zetterstrom and a number 9 I can see us doing better than expected but doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence from the outside noise

[IlsonDerby]

30 minutes ago, TheRamOfSwad said:

Quite a few online podcasts and pundits have tipped us as one of the 3 teams to go down but I think Warne is settled into Derby and he knows his whats is required of this league and i can see him stepping up

If we sign Zetterstrom and a number 9 I can see us doing better than expected but doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence from the outside noise

NTT20 had us to finish 2nd last two years in league 1 so they’ve got a 50% hit record in the Clowes era 

[TheRamOfSwad]

11 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

NTT20 had us to finish 2nd last two years in league 1 so they’ve got a 50% hit record in the Clowes era 

My gut feeling is we will have a real slow start and be in the scrap but will have enough to survive the drop come season end but need a few signings 🤞🏼

[Tamworthram]

5 hours ago, Marriot Ram99 said:

Would people really be happy with 21st place , 48 points, a -20 goal difference and 7 home wins? I know I wouldnt, if we are s*** but stay up I wouldnt be pleased as I think we should be putting in foundations for future seasons as long term we dont want to be at the bottom end of the league closer to bottom than top 6.I think Clowes may sack Warne if he backs him with some decent signings and our performance was around that.

I think most folk would be relieved rather than happy if we were s*** but somehow managed to stay up - with the hope/expectation that we kick on and improve the following year.

[IlsonDerby]

6 hours ago, Marriot Ram99 said:

Would people really be happy with 21st place , 48 points, a -20 goal difference and 7 home wins? I know I wouldnt, if we are s*** but stay up I wouldnt be pleased as I think we should be putting in foundations for future seasons as long term we dont want to be at the bottom end of the league closer to bottom than top 6.I think Clowes may sack Warne if he backs him with some decent signings and our performance was around that.

I wouldn’t be over the moon but I’d be expecting big progress for the next season having ticked off the key goal for this season. 

[Carl Sagan]

Got to be in it to win it. Although our transfer business has been good so far, it's disappointing it's far from complete with the opening game upon us. After our terrible start last season, we were significantly the best team in League One for a very long time and won automatic promotion. So much in football is about confidence and momentum, and it just feels as if we've let it ebb away, like air from a slow puncture. 

It seems our business now is likely to be the keeper and then some loans, and these loans will come at the end of the window in the horse trading with Prem Clubs. Will we be playing catchup by then?

I think it's realistic to think we might be competing for the playoffs if we can start well, or if the recruitment team unearth another couple of gems. But that's what we're waiting for, treading water. 

[Ambitious]

I do suspect there will be still some substantial business between now and the end of the window, so I'm not jumping the gun. It seems like most of the Championship is going into the season undercooked so I think there will be a lot of business to come on the whole. 

[May Contain Nuts]

Another prediction for relegation, but at least in 22nd.

https://betting.betfair.com/football/championship/efl-championship-preview-and-tips-3-1-leeds-top-1-24-season-predictions-060824-766.html

"Derby were worthy promotion winners with an industrious, no-frills approach under Paul Warne that's built from the back and designed to utilise transitions and set-pieces. Whether the former Rotherham chief - a great motivator - can evolve his style at this level remains questionable after enduring relegation campaigns with the Millers.

The solid base remains, and the Rams are unlikely to be easy meat. But do they possess the squad-strength, firepower and second-tier stardust to justify market expectations of a mid-table finish? The workmanlike outfit look limited in key areas and anything better than a bottom-eight scrap has to be considered a big success for County supporters"

 

 

[May Contain Nuts]

Meanwhile The Guardian has us safe, or at least seem to have forgotten we exist!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/aug/07/championship-2024-25-preview-contenders-hopefuls-strugglers

 

[Ambitious]

Just now, May Contain Nuts said:

Another prediction for relegation, but at least in 22nd.

https://betting.betfair.com/football/championship/efl-championship-preview-and-tips-3-1-leeds-top-1-24-season-predictions-060824-766.html

"Derby were worthy promotion winners with an industrious, no-frills approach under Paul Warne that's built from the back and designed to utilise transitions and set-pieces. Whether the former Rotherham chief - a great motivator - can evolve his style at this level remains questionable after enduring relegation campaigns with the Millers.

The solid base remains, and the Rams are unlikely to be easy meat. But do they possess the squad-strength, firepower and second-tier stardust to justify market expectations of a mid-table finish? The workmanlike outfit look limited in key areas and anything better than a bottom-eight scrap has to be considered a big success for County supporters"

 

I could pick a lot holes in that, but I'll go with: Portsmouth delivered 'eye-catching' title success whereas we 'industrious, no frills' - we scored the same amount of goals and we had the best goal difference in the league? They had a better start, we finished the season much stronger. 

Although, I am seeing more-and-more predictions of us in the bottom three this season so all opinions valid. I just find some of the narratives very off especially when compared to the other promoted teams. The firepower one is one I see quite often: Jerry Yates, in particular, even with his monster year last season Sammie Szmodics only has 6 more goal involvements over Yates in the past four years - playing at the same level along the way. He had 21 goal involvements with Blackpool the year before, I struggle to see who others have signed towards the bottom end of the table who even remotely comes close to that and it is being very much overlooked.

I don't anticipate predictions to include projections for the remainder of the transfer window, so perhaps narratives change as signings come in.

[Matchday Fred]

Having been relegated from this league a few times, Warne knows the Champ is No Country for Bald Men. I don’t see any outright weak links that you could point to as relegation fodder, it will be very tight with lots of drawn and low scoring games. I think we have enough with a physical midfield, but not sure where the goals are coming from until the loan window is over. Suspect  Brown will be loaned out again.