The Ukraine War

[Bob The Badger]

15 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Sorry but Twitter is probably the last place I would look if I wanted to know what was happening in Ukraine.

So rather than follow an ex-Major in the US army who is regularly interviews on a multitude of TV channels because he's seen as a world authority on urban warfare, you would prefer to get your information from a football message board?

[Tamworthram]

16 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Couple more sinister developments in all of this.

• Suggestion that China are watching this all with interest and have already started to make moves as to how they might use learnings from this to 'reclaim' Taiwan if Russia's advance into Ukraine does end up successful
• Great piece on BBC about why many African countries are supporting Russia in this conflict. Many African leaders studied in Russia, particularly those who were in potential Marxist republics like Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda. Also, Russia does not have the colonial history that USA and UK have, did not engage in the slave trade and so many are taking the 'my enemies enemy is my friend' logic. And, Russia funded largely many rebel Marxist factions that later came to power in Africa, for example the flag of Mozambique has a Kalashnikov rifle on it.
• To the above, Putin is offering now opportunity for anyone to fight, not for Russia but against the West - or rather the version of that which many somehow think Ukraine is. Which is why you now have 16,000 Arabs ready to fight, and let's not lose one moment of misunderstanding, they are fighting against the west, not for Russia.
• Part of the reason Putin is doing this is that most Russian soldiers in Ukraine at the moment are contractors / third party. Putin knows that once he starts sending in the actual Russian army, and body bags start coming home, then he is going to lose any local support (and he has very, very little at the moment) that he has on the home front. Even those who do support him are of the view that this needs resolving quickly
• There is now fighting between Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, who sense opportunity to sort out local issues while the local eye (meaning Russia) is elsewhere
• Most worryingly, Russia are apparently looking to sell / exchange the Kuril islands to China to both curry favour and also fund the war effort. They are disputed territories, part of the Sakhalin chain. Problem is that this chain extends to Japan and they lay claim to these. If that happens Japan comes in to all of this and we have a World War, no debate

Just for balance, at the UN general assembly on 27/2/22, of the 54 African members 28 voted in favour of the resolution condemning Russia, 17 abstained (which could be interpreted as, we wanted to condemn it but we rely on Russia and therefore don’t want to upset them), 8 were absent and only 1 voted against (Eritrea). Also, whilst I’m sure, with justification, many African countries are not particularly fold of the west, I believe most voted (or abstained) in line with their current allegiance rather than against old enemies. I.e. with Russia rather than against the west. 

[Tamworthram]

10 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

So rather than follow an ex-Major in the US army who is regularly interviews on a multitude of TV channels because he's seen as a world authority on urban warfare, you would prefer to get your information from a football message board?

Pretty much anything ranks before Twitter in my opinion ?
 

Besides, I said it’s the last place I’d look. There is no doubt some sensible points of view and opinions on Twitter but it is so toxic I wouldn’t risk relying on it. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Tamworthram

[Alph]

So they're kidnapping the odd mayor or two. 

Spare a though for the conscript that draws the Vitali Klitschko straw

[Bob The Badger]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Pretty much anything ranks before Twitter in my opinion ?
 

Besides, I said it’s the last place I’d look. There is no doubt some sensible points of view and opinions on Twitter but it is so toxic I wouldn’t risk relying on it. 

Twitter can be brilliant if you follow the right accounts and then just read what they say/link to and don't get sucked into the comments.

I have almost 5k followers in large part from years ago when I wrote self development books, but I follow less than 100 people back. But most are comedians, Derby or LA Rams sources, or quality accounts like this guy. I don't even follow my sister back because that's not what I use Twitter for. 

Having said that, I do follow Piers Morgan and read the responses sometimes because they're hysterical.

Nothing binary about the people who follow Piers, they would either sleep with a goat if it pleased him, or murder the same goat if it would piss him off.

[Bob The Badger]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Just for balance, at the UN general assembly on 27/2/22, of the 54 African members 28 voted in favour of the resolution condemning Russia, 17 abstained (which could be interpreted as, we wanted to condemn it but we rely on Russia and therefore don’t want to upset them), 8 were absent and only 1 voted against (Eritrea). Also, whilst I’m sure, with justification, many African countries are not particularly fold of the west, I believe most voted (or abstained) in line with their current allegiance rather than against old enemies. I.e. with Russia rather than against the west. 

Too lazy to check but I'm pretty sure Russia has been arming the Eritreans in their war against Ethiopia which would explain that.

[Stive Pesley]

22 hours ago, Norman said:

Scary times ahead, I think. We will find out in the next 2 weeks when they actually get to Kyiv which direction this is going to take.

It's horrible - either Ukraine surrender or we will see massive civilian casualties/bloodbath and a ruined city

Neither of which is a result anyone wants to see

 

[Highgate]

The difficulty is finding an exit strategy from this nightmare. 

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely, although not impossible, that Putin will be toppled from within Russia, however harsh the sanctions may be.  It's also completely implausible, that Putin will admit that he was wrong all along or that he misjudged Ukraine's response and call the whole invasion off.

No, it seems to me for this war to end, there must be an exit strategy that Putin is able to sell, via his state propaganda, as a heroic and necessary Russian victory, however twisted and delusional that may sound.  So the question is what concessions are Ukraine willing to make that will allow Putin to successfully spin this into a victory for himself and his army?

An agreement that Ukraine does not join NATO and remain militarily neutral between the West and Russia?  I think Zelensky and the Ukrainians would sign up to that tomorrow.  And NATO would be delighted to remain uncommitted to defending Ukraine's borders in the future.  To be honest, this should probably have been the strategy all along.

An agreement that Ukraine acknowledges that Crimea is part of Russia?  This would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow, but the reality is that the whole world is carrying on like Crimea is part of Russia already.  It was a Russian province, stupidly given as a gift to Ukraine by Khruschev in the 1950s. It's a region full of people who not only speak Russian, but identify as Russian as well as some Ukrainians and Tartars.  So could Crimea become part of a settlement?

What about the Donbas region?  It seems unlikely that Ukraine would be willing to hand that over to Russia...or that many of the people living there would be happy with that arrangement.  But how about if that area was given a large degree of autonomy, with people there allowed to get whatever passport they choose and determine their own nationality (like N.Ireland). I don't know if Ukraine would agree or whether Russia will stop at anything short of completely annexing eastern parts of Ukraine...but maybe it's preferable to continuing the war for both sides.

Putin clearly wanted far more than just these concessions when the war started...but he likely was very unpleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian resistance and the international condemnation. In order to minimize the hardship for Russia (or more likely in order to protect his own position as president/dictator) he might wish to end the war early if they was an agreeable solution. He could say the protected the Russian regions in Eastern Ukraine, gained Ukrainian and international acknowledgement for Crimea and demilitarized Ukraine by preventing it from joining NATO. Is there any chance that agreements such as these would allow him enough cover to claim a victory in the Russian media and call off the war?

The alternative is becoming unthinkable.  

 

 

 

[Ram-Alf]

24 minutes ago, Highgate said:

The difficulty is finding an exit strategy from this nightmare. 

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely, although not impossible, that Putin will be toppled from within Russia, however harsh the sanctions may be.  It's also completely implausible, that Putin will admit that he was wrong all along or that he misjudged Ukraine's response and call the whole invasion off.

No, it seems to me for this war to end, there must be an exit strategy that Putin is able to sell, via his state propaganda, as a heroic and necessary Russian victory, however twisted and delusional that may sound.  So the question is what concessions are Ukraine willing to make that will allow Putin to successfully spin this into a victory for himself and his army?

An agreement that Ukraine does not join NATO and remain militarily neutral between the West and Russia?  I think Zelensky and the Ukrainians would sign up to that tomorrow.  And NATO would be delighted to remain uncommitted to defending Ukraine's borders in the future.  To be honest, this should probably have been the strategy all along.

An agreement that Ukraine acknowledges that Crimea is part of Russia?  This would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow, but the reality is that the whole world is carrying on like Crimea is part of Russia already.  It was a Russian province, stupidly given as a gift to Ukraine by Khruschev in the 1950s. It's a region full of people who not only speak Russian, but identify as Russian as well as some Ukrainians and Tartars.  So could Crimea become part of a settlement?

What about the Donbas region?  It seems unlikely that Ukraine would be willing to hand that over to Russia...or that many of the people living there would be happy with that arrangement.  But how about if that area was given a large degree of autonomy, with people there allowed to get whatever passport they choose and determine their own nationality (like N.Ireland). I don't know if Ukraine would agree or whether Russia will stop at anything short of completely annexing eastern parts of Ukraine...but maybe it's preferable to continuing the war for both sides.

Putin clearly wanted far more than just these concessions when the war started...but he likely was very unpleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian resistance and the international condemnation. In order to minimize the hardship for Russia (or more likely in order to protect his own position as president/dictator) he might wish to end the war early if they was an agreeable solution. He could say the protected the Russian regions in Eastern Ukraine, gained Ukrainian and international acknowledgement for Crimea and demilitarized Ukraine by preventing it from joining NATO. Is there any chance that agreements such as these would allow him enough cover to claim a victory in the Russian media and call off the war?

The alternative is becoming unthinkable.  

 

 

 

All makes sense, Unfortunately sense isn't something Putin has a lot of, So far 1000s have been killed, Citys indescriminately bombed, 1 million + fleeing Ukraine and some not wanting to go back, A brain drain leaving Russia and not many wanting to go back, Who's going to pay for the rebuild of the Ukraine.

I've not a clue what's in Putins mind, Whether he thought a quick win or a long drawn out battle, Did he think the Ukrainians would capitulate and welcome him with open arms...I doubt it very much, Already families who have had their Mother, Father, Sister, Brother, Son, Daughter killed, There will be anger for decades to come, It will bread a Ukrainian terrorist.

Yes the alternative is unthinkable

[Highgate]

20 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

All makes sense, Unfortunately sense isn't something Putin has a lot of, So far 1000s have been killed, Citys indescriminately bombed, 1 million + fleeing Ukraine and some not wanting to go back, A brain drain leaving Russia and not many wanting to go back, Who's going to pay for the rebuild of the Ukraine.

I've not a clue what's in Putins mind, Whether he thought a quick win or a long drawn out battle, Did he think the Ukrainians would capitulate and welcome him with open arms...I doubt it very much, Already families who have had their Mother, Father, Sister, Brother, Son, Daughter killed, There will be anger for decades to come, It will bread a Ukrainian terrorist.

Yes the alternative is unthinkable

Yeah, as of now, Putin's well on course to destroy 2 countries, not just one. It's very hard to understand what he was thinking when he started the war or how his mindset might have changed given how badly things have gone. 

[Bob The Badger]

24 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Yeah, as of now, Putin's well on course to destroy 2 countries, not just one. It's very hard to understand what he was thinking when he started the war or how his mindset might have changed given how badly things have gone. 

I'm sure you have listened to the experts and the common perception is that Putin thought and/or was told that it would be a quick win due to a combination of Russian might, a weak Ukrainian military and indeed, some Ukrainians welcoming the invasion.

I heard a guy interviewed yesterday who was a General in the US armed forces during the cold war and he said, we have made exactly the same mistake this time as we did in the 70s' and 80s' and that is giving the Russians/Soviets more credit than they were/are due.

he said that when they finally got to look at their capabilities after the cold war ended, they were shocked at just how poorly equipped and trained they were compared to the US and NATO.

Maybe Putin believs his own publicity, maybe he has been Bs'ed by frightened underlings or maybe there is something else altogether.

A LOT of military experts predicted this would be over in days and it's easy to look at it now and think, well that was never going to happen.

@Unlucky Alf - Ever poor decision looks like a lack of common sense after the event and every person makes poor decisions.

I think it's far too simplistic to say Putin lacks sense when the guy has controlled a country the size of Russia so tightly for so long and had western countries turning a blind eye as he's committed atrocities left, right and centre.

It's a mess and I cannot see how this doesn't spread.

 

[Ram-Alf]

18 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

I

 

@Unlucky Alf - Ever poor decision looks like a lack of common sense after the event and every person makes poor decisions.

I think it's far too simplistic to say Putin lacks sense when the guy has controlled a country the size of Russia so tightly for so long and had western countries turning a blind eye as he's committed atrocities left, right and centre.

It's a mess and I cannot see how this doesn't spread.

 

Bob I wasn't trying to infur Putin is some kind of despot/nutcase, Far from it, It's so easy to be wise AFTER the event, But his KBG training and methology going forward shows a cunning charactor, When you have the backing of most if not all Senior forces personel, Oligarchs who fear every call they recieve from him, Mayors who will do Putins bidding at the drop of a hat, Citizens who will toe the party line as it's what they're used to...being Putin is quite easy...it's called control.

Russia-Federation has a population of circa 145 million people living on the largest country in the world by area, He'll certainly control the major cities, The Countryside where life is still stuck in the main 20s and 30s well that'll be someone elses payday.

To stop this catastrophe will have to be done within, Then another head of state will take control.

PS

I've watched The Death of Stalin several times, The humour was brilliant but the tragedy was fear.

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, Bob The Badger said:

Maybe Putin believs his own publicity, maybe he has been Bs'ed by frightened underlings or maybe there is something else altogether.

I can't figure it out either. How did Putin, who as you say has successfully controlled Russia for decades, misjudge the situation so badly?  Propaganda is disseminated by a state to fool their own population....those spreading it aren't supposed to believe it themselves.  There is a problem if the president starts to believe the nonsense himself.  Maybe Putin really did believe Ukraine was full of Nazis...and that large parts of the population were eager for Russian help.  I don't know if that scenario is worse or better. 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

I can't figure it out either. How did Putin, who as you say has successfully controlled Russia for decades, misjudge the situation so badly?  Propaganda is disseminated by a state to fool their own population....those spreading it aren't supposed to believe it themselves.  There is a problem if the president starts to believe the nonsense himself.  Maybe Putin really did believe Ukraine was full of Nazis...and that large parts of the population were eager for Russian help.  I don't know if that scenario is worse or better. 

It's possible that he just wants to see the world burn.

[Mick Brolly]

14 minutes ago, Eddie said:

It's possible that he just wants to see the world burn.

Bloody hell we've got another Mason Bennett on our hands 

[Highgate]

13 minutes ago, Eddie said:

It's possible that he just wants to see the world burn.

Let's hope not because he is one of the few people in the world that can actually make that happen if he so chooses.  Like most bad guys he probably sees himself as the good guy. Somehow.

 

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

2 hours ago, Eddie said:

It's possible that he just wants to see the world burn.

Just watched a documentary about a town called zhytomyr which has or had an army base. The place is a pile of ruble incuding the maternity and college. A few hardy souls try to remain but it was just like watching the streets of Alepo

[Archied]

15 hours ago, Highgate said:

The difficulty is finding an exit strategy from this nightmare. 

Unfortunately, it seems unlikely, although not impossible, that Putin will be toppled from within Russia, however harsh the sanctions may be.  It's also completely implausible, that Putin will admit that he was wrong all along or that he misjudged Ukraine's response and call the whole invasion off.

No, it seems to me for this war to end, there must be an exit strategy that Putin is able to sell, via his state propaganda, as a heroic and necessary Russian victory, however twisted and delusional that may sound.  So the question is what concessions are Ukraine willing to make that will allow Putin to successfully spin this into a victory for himself and his army?

An agreement that Ukraine does not join NATO and remain militarily neutral between the West and Russia?  I think Zelensky and the Ukrainians would sign up to that tomorrow.  And NATO would be delighted to remain uncommitted to defending Ukraine's borders in the future.  To be honest, this should probably have been the strategy all along.

An agreement that Ukraine acknowledges that Crimea is part of Russia?  This would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow, but the reality is that the whole world is carrying on like Crimea is part of Russia already.  It was a Russian province, stupidly given as a gift to Ukraine by Khruschev in the 1950s. It's a region full of people who not only speak Russian, but identify as Russian as well as some Ukrainians and Tartars.  So could Crimea become part of a settlement?

What about the Donbas region?  It seems unlikely that Ukraine would be willing to hand that over to Russia...or that many of the people living there would be happy with that arrangement.  But how about if that area was given a large degree of autonomy, with people there allowed to get whatever passport they choose and determine their own nationality (like N.Ireland). I don't know if Ukraine would agree or whether Russia will stop at anything short of completely annexing eastern parts of Ukraine...but maybe it's preferable to continuing the war for both sides.

Putin clearly wanted far more than just these concessions when the war started...but he likely was very unpleasantly surprised by the Ukrainian resistance and the international condemnation. In order to minimize the hardship for Russia (or more likely in order to protect his own position as president/dictator) he might wish to end the war early if they was an agreeable solution. He could say the protected the Russian regions in Eastern Ukraine, gained Ukrainian and international acknowledgement for Crimea and demilitarized Ukraine by preventing it from joining NATO. Is there any chance that agreements such as these would allow him enough cover to claim a victory in the Russian media and call off the war?

The alternative is becoming unthinkable.  

 

 

 

Perception and face saving is going to be everything, I read in a couple of places yesterday that some U.K. mp s are calling for an honorary knighthood for the Ukrainian president, how would that be perceived / spun ? Very much like ukrain is fighting the wests war for them , we really have some very dumb people running our country ??‍♂️

[BaaLocks]

20 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Just for balance, at the UN general assembly on 27/2/22, of the 54 African members 28 voted in favour of the resolution condemning Russia, 17 abstained (which could be interpreted as, we wanted to condemn it but we rely on Russia and therefore don’t want to upset them), 8 were absent and only 1 voted against (Eritrea). Also, whilst I’m sure, with justification, many African countries are not particularly fold of the west, I believe most voted (or abstained) in line with their current allegiance rather than against old enemies. I.e. with Russia rather than against the west. 

About 17 minutes in https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00157td/unspun-world-with-john-simpson-series-1-09032022

[Bob The Badger]

13 hours ago, Highgate said:

I can't figure it out either. How did Putin, who as you say has successfully controlled Russia for decades, misjudge the situation so badly?  Propaganda is disseminated by a state to fool their own population....those spreading it aren't supposed to believe it themselves.  

The reality is that that becomes unavoidable.

The more you tell a lie the more you come to believe it's true and there is a lot of science to support that, it's not just a random belief.

Lying creates cognitive dissonance (in most people) and the brain hates that so will look to erase it by shifting perspectives.