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The Ukraine War


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34 minutes ago, Highgate said:

One of the biggest impacts of this war will be increased military budgets for countries. Entirely understandable given the presence of Putin...but still that's money that will be diverted away from health, education and tackling climate change, so we will all suffer the consequences.

I think Europe gets about 40% of our gas from Russia, there are other options like Azerbaijan, the US, and the Middle East of course....but it seems likely that energy conservation is going to be on the agenda for a lot of countries if this war becomes a long term conflict. Good news for the thermal undies industry I suppose....

When you consider the current global situation regarding energy, food production, population growth and climate change, this is definitely starting to feel like the start of the war of all wars, where we battle for control of the planet

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24 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

When you consider the current global situation regarding energy, food production, population growth and climate change, this is definitely starting to feel like the start of the war of all wars, where we battle for control of the planet

We all hope you are wrong of course.....but for all those reasons you mentioned I think we are closer to an unfortunate tipping point than is comfortable. 

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21 minutes ago, Highgate said:

We all hope you are wrong of course.....but for all those reasons you mentioned I think we are closer to an unfortunate tipping point than is comfortable. 

Have to concur sadly.  I'm old enough to remember all our conflicts since the Falklands, including the Gulf War, Afghan War, Iraq, Bosnia plus of course the threats from the IRA, Al Qaeda and ISIS and not once do I recall every being really worried.  This one however has me worried.  

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2 hours ago, BucksRam said:

Have to concur sadly.  I'm old enough to remember all our conflicts since the Falklands, including the Gulf War, Afghan War, Iraq, Bosnia plus of course the threats from the IRA, Al Qaeda and ISIS and not once do I recall every being really worried.  This one however has me worried.  

Another post I agree with...but it feels wrong giving it a like!  A lot of those on this thread.

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On 03/03/2022 at 10:13, BaaLocks said:

Because the hypocrisy is exposed - we gave them safe haven over here when they needed to escape the threats of Putin towards the oligarchs and now we are reneging on those promises because the very same person we claimed to be providing safe haven from has gone and actually done something. Oh, and we compromised ourself massively by offering visas, residency and other benefits in return for cold hard cash and party funding.

The story goes that Putin came to power in 2000, when corruption was endemic and the oligarchs were bleeding the state enterprises for billions, he got them all together (yes, images of Spectre or Dr Evil do come to mind) and said something along the lines of "you made your money, now stop, and if you challenge me you will face the consequences". The richest of those oligarchs - Khodorkovsky - didn't heed the warning and ended up in prison in Siberia. Many say that was exactly why Abramovich bought Chelsea and did the playboy bit, he was signalling to Putin openly and directly that his interest was in silly playthings like football teams and not in politics and being a threat to him.

And the UK government lapped it up (read a book called Londongrad if you want - it is beyond amazing how we let this happen. One small example, one oligarch bought an apatrment in central London and it was priced at £940k. He insisted the agent go back and offer £1m because he didn't feel comfortable living in a house that was worth less than a million when all his friends did). Lebedev (who is now in the Louse of Lords) provides the castle that Boris and Carrie use for holidays, Truss and others have been photographed at balls with oligarchs wives and we all know clearly about a certain thing called the Russia Report.

Whoever is the leader of Russia in three / six / nine months time will not forget the Houses of Parliament applauding the Ukranian ambassador, Boris wearing his blue and yellow lapel. We are right to show support for Ukraine, we should be doing more, but in doing so we have exposed ourselves as a 'country' who is prepared to take the money when the going is good and then forget it ever happened at a later date.

But surely, describing a situation as “when the going is good” and then “forgetting it happened” is disingenuous

 when everyone of influence is feeding at the trough and filling their pockets . (acknowledging this might possibly at the monetary expense of others) …is one thing …

 When some of the feeders take guns up and start shooting and killing complete innocents, that is rather different.

I’d say “they” haven’t forgotten ! rather, it is a case that the other side has broken the covenant, crossed a line between the pragmatic evidence of human nature and the very basis of civilisation and decency.

This isn’t about about the Wests Political failings ( they are legion, can’t argue with that  )  We are not  here because of those. We are here because of Putins odious violent  Fascist empire building. 
 

In every walk of life there are takers. We tolerate it as part of human nature but there are lines .. if you change your stance after those lines are crossed … that isn’t “forgetting” it isn’t even hypocritical. It’s about what reasonable people see as reasonable.

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7 hours ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Germany wanting to spend €100 billion more on defence, Finland and Sweden wanting to join NATO, China blocking the Premier League last weekend, Not in support of Russia but not wanting their citizens to see huge support for Ukraine, They do not want another Tiananmen Square so keep things quiet.

Taiwan is another concern, China have already built an Island in the South China Sea for their Air support

No need to worry about China and Taiwan. That’s the other side of the world.

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This video addresses the tactics and aims of the Russian military action in Ukraine.

i agree with most of what Alex puts out here, except i think most of the western Ukraine area will get split between Hungary, Romania and Poland, that is to say if the whole situation doesn't blow up in all our faces before that can happen.

 

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3 hours ago, ramit said:

This video addresses the tactics and aims of the Russian military action in Ukraine.

i agree with most of what Alex puts out here, except i think most of the western Ukraine area will get split between Hungary, Romania and Poland, that is to say if the whole situation doesn't blow up in all our faces before that can happen.

 

The alarm bells started ringing when he referred to the Russians as 'liberating' Syria from 'jihadists'. When he moved on to the 'denazification' of Ukraine his viewpoint became even more obvious.

Not knowing who he was I checked out his previous YouTube videos, and it's the usual mish-mash of pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-EU, anti-liberal talking points. If you want a real laugh check out his video from the 6th December where he rubbishes the idea of a Russian military build up and a possible invasion of Ukraine. 

(Also, the first advert that popped up on his YouTube channel was Nigel Farage trying to sell me stuff)

200-1.gif.2886c571dfa362ea2020679093ce26e5.gif

 

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13 hours ago, jono said:

But surely, describing a situation as “when the going is good” and then “forgetting it happened” is disingenuous

 when everyone of influence is feeding at the trough and filling their pockets . (acknowledging this might possibly at the monetary expense of others) …is one thing …

 When some of the feeders take guns up and start shooting and killing complete innocents, that is rather different.

I’d say “they” haven’t forgotten ! rather, it is a case that the other side has broken the covenant, crossed a line between the pragmatic evidence of human nature and the very basis of civilisation and decency.

This isn’t about about the Wests Political failings ( they are legion, can’t argue with that  )  We are not  here because of those. We are here because of Putins odious violent  Fascist empire building. 
 

In every walk of life there are takers. We tolerate it as part of human nature but there are lines .. if you change your stance after those lines are crossed … that isn’t “forgetting” it isn’t even hypocritical. It’s about what reasonable people see as reasonable.

Not quite sure you got my point, or maybe I didn't explain it as I intended. What I was saying is that the Tory leadership are seriously compromised by light of having been wiling to take funding from those that now are the very people they are expected to rail against. I won't post here as it takes us a bit off thread but it's up on the Internet if you want to go look for it - links between Gavin Williamson's knighthood, the Russia report, Lord Lebedev. And not some crackpot 18 year old conspiracy theorist but trusted and respected journalists like Carol Cawalladr and transcripts of statements given under oath. It's there if you want to go looking for it - which is a point in itself.

There is much in the actions of Ukraine in the past few months that Russia will have seen as aggressive - breaking the Minsk agreement, banning the speaking of Russian, turning a blind eye to routine torture of Russian citizens living in Ukraine. Russia was clear, go down this path and there will be consequences, Zelensky chose to ignore that and the promised consequences came in exactly the manner predicted. Russian forces were on the Ukranian border for more than a month before they invaded, on every single one of those days Zelensky could have reversed decisions seen as aggressive - decisions he had previously agreed to. And no, no suggestion they brought this on themselves, just that there were opportunities before we got here to resolve it.

So it is wrong what is happening but take the analogy of the bloke in the pub getting pushed and nudged continually by some other punter - he says "do that again and I'm going to thump you" and guess what, he not only does it again but he also tips his drink over the bloke's head (extend the analogy, maybe because he thinks he's got some big mates who will step in if it kicks off). The bloke says "one more time and I'm going to thump you" and he does and the bloke thumps him. The bloke gets the criminal charge, he was in the wrong but he does not mean the other side's protestations of "he just hit me for no reason" don't really hold water for those prepared to understand.

That is all I am saying, it's beyond the view of me, or anyone on here, whether or not it is right of Russia to make the requests they have but it is also clear that just framing it from one view will not help us resolve it.

P.S. Putin is a dictator, a bully and guilty of war crimes as we stand. He is not a Fascist, by any (recognised) definition. I'm not his defence lawyer but it weakens arguments when errors like that are within them.

But (in general) I'm posting less on here the last few days, and in general, because it is thoroughly exhausting being taken to task by people (not you personally) who think they now have the in depth knowledge of the region to clearly call out exactly what is going on, what needs to be done and (black and white) who are the right 'uns and who are the wrong 'uns. And also to try and recognise the tone of discussion, the level of bombast, the total inability to listen (at all levels, including the most senior politicians) to the views of others, if only to try and advance a conclusion.

I'd pretty much guarantee that if I gave the average soapbox expert five questions on Ukraine (what religion are they, name five cities, who was the President before Zelensky, what did the country look like before Communism, what is the population) they'd struggle to get three right. It's not to say I am some big know it all, but ask me to comment on why Derby beat Chelsea in 1968 I won't be able to tell you as I wasn't there and don't know. Yet today we all (myself included) seem to think that three Twitter feeds and ten minutes watching Dan and Sally on the sofa is enough to make me an expert.

Edited by BaaLocks
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1 hour ago, Olton Ram said:

The alarm bells started ringing when he referred to the Russians as 'liberating' Syria from 'jihadists'. When he moved on to the 'denazification' of Ukraine his viewpoint became even more obvious.

Not knowing who he was I checked out his previous YouTube videos, and it's the usual mish-mash of pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-EU, anti-liberal talking points. If you want a real laugh check out his video from the 6th December where he rubbishes the idea of a Russian military build up and a possible invasion of Ukraine. 

(Also, the first advert that popped up on his YouTube channel was Nigel Farage trying to sell me stuff)

200-1.gif.2886c571dfa362ea2020679093ce26e5.gif

 

I think you're doing him a disservice - according to his website he merely "advances a realpolitik position He is not right, left or center. He merely focuses on a pragmatic analysis of stories in the news

It's just pure coincidence that he comes across as pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-EU and anti-liberal ?

In all seriousness though - what is it with these Youtube grifters and their weird belief that rambling on whilst walking along talking into a camera phone is a news consumer-friendly style? It's hard to concentrate when the background is moving about and  he's all out of breath. Fair play to anyone who sat through 25 minutes of that. I have to find an anchor point to cling on to and unfortunately it wasn't his dialog - it was the fact his beard looks like pubes

 

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1 hour ago, Olton Ram said:

The alarm bells started ringing when he referred to the Russians as 'liberating' Syria from 'jihadists'. When he moved on to the 'denazification' of Ukraine his viewpoint became even more obvious.

Not knowing who he was I checked out his previous YouTube videos, and it's the usual mish-mash of pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-EU, anti-liberal talking points. If you want a real laugh check out his video from the 6th December where he rubbishes the idea of a Russian military build up and a possible invasion of Ukraine. 

(Also, the first advert that popped up on his YouTube channel was Nigel Farage trying to sell me stuff)

200-1.gif.2886c571dfa362ea2020679093ce26e5.gif

 

Thank you for this, always good to fact check as the fog of war is pretty quick to make everything murky. The other day I did the same but got told that I was just mocking views that didn't meet my agenda - but cheap shots are the easiest ones to make.

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21 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

.

There is much in the actions of Ukraine in the past few months that Russia will have seen as aggressive - breaking the Minsk agreement, banning the speaking of Russian, turning a blind eye to routine torture of Russian citizens living in Ukraine. Russia was clear, go down this path and there will be consequences, Zelensky chose to ignore that and the promised consequences came in exactly the manner predicted. Russian forces were on the Ukranian border for more than a month before they invaded, on every single one of those days Zelensky could have reversed decisions seen as aggressive - decisions he had previously agreed to. And no, no suggestion they brought this on themselves, just that there were opportunities before we got here to resolve it.

So it is wrong what is happening but take the analogy of the bloke in the pub getting pushed and nudged continually by some other punter - he says "do that again and I'm going to thump you" and guess what, he not only does it again but he also tips his drink over the bloke's head (extend the analogy, maybe because he thinks he's got some big mates who will step in if it kicks off). The bloke says "one more time and I'm going to thump you" and he does and the bloke thumps him. The bloke gets the criminal charge, he was in the wrong but he does not mean the other side's protestations of "he just hit me for no reason" don't really hold water for those prepared to understand.

That is all I am saying, it's beyond the view of me, or anyone on here, whether or not it is right of Russia to make the requests they have but it is also clear that just framing it from one view will not help us resolve it.

 

We can all be armchair pundits as the majortiy of what we see is TV news, Papers and the internet, What i've highlighted i've never seen, Heard or been told about, I respect your postings as you've lived amongst Russians so have a feeling of what's happening, Not at all like myself who rely upon the media.

I can empathise with the "you've been warned Zelensky" the torture of Russian speaking Ukrainians is similar to what happend in Sudetenland in WW2, If this is a forerunner to this then god help us, And i'm an Agnostic

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