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The Ukraine War


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4 minutes ago, Alpha said:

All he has achieved is showing Russian incompetence and making sure the Ruble plummets.

I don't pretend to understand this, but while looking at the charts that show the $ so strong against the £ - I expected to see the Ruble in "plummet" mode since they invaded Ukraine. Which it did - briefly

But now it looks to have bounced back and be stronger than at any point in the past 5 years?

image.thumb.png.e9a6f4da51c804ac95efbb39771d6c61.png

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Should we not all feel a little more uncomfortable tonight followings todays events? Now Ukraine is applying for NATO using a apparently simplified process? (Thought they had done this and it had been rejected?). I feels like it’s going to escalate and quickly, I hope I’m completely wrong (I know a lot  of you are far more clued up than me on this subject so I’m hoping you can make the picture seem a little better than it does) 

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26 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't pretend to understand this, but while looking at the charts that show the $ so strong against the £ - I expected to see the Ruble in "plummet" mode since they invaded Ukraine. Which it did - briefly

But now it looks to have bounced back and be stronger than at any point in the past 5 years?

image.thumb.png.e9a6f4da51c804ac95efbb39771d6c61.png

From what I've read, it's primarily because they've got huge foreign currency reserves from sky high gas and oil prices, but can't spend it on imports because of sanctions.

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19 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Should we not all feel a little more uncomfortable tonight followings todays events? Now Ukraine is applying for NATO using a apparently simplified process? (Thought they had done this and it had been rejected?). I feels like it’s going to escalate and quickly, I hope I’m completely wrong (I know a lot  of you are far more clued up than me on this subject so I’m hoping you can make the picture seem a little better than it does) 

Been pooping it ever since Putin  started talking about Nuclear weapons like they're an option. 

Then Liz Truss joins in with her numerous threats. 

The more desperate Putin gets the more scary it is. It's supposed to be a good thing that the war didn't go to his plan!

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33 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't pretend to understand this, but while looking at the charts that show the $ so strong against the £ - I expected to see the Ruble in "plummet" mode since they invaded Ukraine. Which it did - briefly

But now it looks to have bounced back and be stronger than at any point in the past 5 years?

image.thumb.png.e9a6f4da51c804ac95efbb39771d6c61.png

Surprised too. 

So is it at a false value right now?

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1 hour ago, Stive Pesley said:

I don't pretend to understand this, but while looking at the charts that show the $ so strong against the £ - I expected to see the Ruble in "plummet" mode since they invaded Ukraine. Which it did - briefly

But now it looks to have bounced back and be stronger than at any point in the past 5 years?

image.thumb.png.e9a6f4da51c804ac95efbb39771d6c61.png

 

37 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Surprised too. 

So is it at a false value right now?

I'm not an expert on this but isn't it because they've forced anyone buying Russian gas to pay in Rubles, rather than US$ - thus vastly increasing the demand for the currency?. Previously, very little was traded in Rubles.

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1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

Should we not all feel a little more uncomfortable tonight followings todays events? Now Ukraine is applying for NATO using a apparently simplified process? (Thought they had done this and it had been rejected?). I feels like it’s going to escalate and quickly, I hope I’m completely wrong (I know a lot  of you are far more clued up than me on this subject so I’m hoping you can make the picture seem a little better than it does) 

It could get more uncomfortable, but recent events also show Putin is desperate.

No-one throws several hundred thousand citizens into a warzone if they’ve got it under control. 

I personally think he’s gambling that he can hold Ukraine off through winter and everyone withdraws their support for Ukraine if things get tough for European countries. 

I don’t think it’s going to work and it’s his unprepared “soldiers” who are going to be the first to suffer the winter.

On the nuclear threat, I suppose it’s possible, the guy is pretty deranged and desperate, but he’d be unleashing an almighty poostorm for his country if  he used a tactical nuke. 

 

 

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There's no stalemate in the war at the minute.

The Ukranians have thousands of actual Russian troops surrounded in the city of Lyman. Supply roads are cut off, and once that falls I believe there's one more city with very strong defence and supply lines in the North that Ukraine need to take and a fast land grab will be on again. Probably bigger in scale than the first land grab. They are already crossing the main rivers and natural obstacles in that region ready for the offensive.

The assumption is the Ukranians will then  dig in defence and supply lines 20-50km from the Russian border over Winter in that region, making any Russain advances into Ukraine in the Sping impossible without losing huge numbers of men.

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32 minutes ago, Norman said:

There's no stalemate in the war at the minute.

The Ukranians have thousands of actual Russian troops surrounded in the city of Lyman. Supply roads are cut off, and once that falls I believe there's one more city with very strong defence and supply lines in the North that Ukraine need to take and a fast land grab will be on again. Probably bigger in scale than the first land grab. They are already crossing the main rivers and natural obstacles in that region ready for the offensive.

The assumption is the Ukranians will then  dig in defence and supply lines 20-50km from the Russian border over Winter in that region, making any Russain advances into Ukraine in the Sping impossible without losing huge numbers of men.

Indeed. Last I head Ukraine had fire control over the last remaining exit too. Also Yampil which is pretty close has just been declared as liberated.

Despite being a relatively small place Lyman is strategically very important.

It’s a major rail transport hub, with lines connect to different areas there.  It’s obvious important for Ukraine and their logistics to take it back. But Russia losing is a major blow and means they’ll really struggle to get supplies around that area. The Russian army relies heavily on trainlines to move and supply itself.

A huge blow.

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3 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Should we not all feel a little more uncomfortable tonight followings todays events? Now Ukraine is applying for NATO using a apparently simplified process? (Thought they had done this and it had been rejected?). I feels like it’s going to escalate and quickly, I hope I’m completely wrong (I know a lot  of you are far more clued up than me on this subject so I’m hoping you can make the picture seem a little better than it does) 

Any country can apply to join NATO. This is nothing to worry about. Nobody is letting Ukraine into NATO whilst they are in the middle of a war with Russia. Georgia also isn't allowed to join as they have unresolved conflicts regarding their territory that the Russians stole from them.

And if Russia escalates to nuclear weapons NATO will attack them regardless of whether Ukraine is a member of NATO or not.

This is essentially just a PR stunt by the Ukrainian government to counter the unhinged ramblings that Putin spouted into the world in his latest speech.

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken 

 

US has 'not seen action suggesting Russia is contemplating use of nuclear weapons'

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats as "loose talk". 

The Russian president said he was "not bluffing" when he threatened the West, but the US has seen little evidence so far of any serious contemplation. 

"We are looking very carefully to see if Russia is actually doing anything that suggests that they are contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. To date, we've not seen them take these actions," Mr Blinken said at a press conference in Washington. 

Russia has previously raised the spectre of nuclear war, but Mr Putin's more recent comments have signalled a clear escalation that has concerned the West. 

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23 hours ago, Alpha said:

I mean allies willing to step in and defend the country, push Russia back and secure the region. 

They have cheerleaders and a few of those would sooner this all blow over so they can get that Russian energy. 

And they have a Russia's enemies sending them what they need to fight Russia. But they're doing all the fighting and dying. For all the "Stand with Ukraine" it's more like "we back Ukraine"

I think Zelensky said as much but he understands the reasons nobody can help. They're not in our alliance.

In the coming months we'll all be concerned about the cost of living and internal politics and Ukraine will be a headache that we throw money at so they can weaken Russia. Some nations will distance themselves from the whole affair as they try to loophole through sanctions and send brown envelopes to Moscow. 

I don't disagree with your observations on 'allied' support levels, but NATO's mandate is the security of NATO states. Putin's mantra is very much rooted in resisting NATO 'aggression and encroachment'. Putting boots on Ukrainian soil would provide validate his sabre rattling and embolden him, resulting in who knows what repercussions? I suspect more informed minds than mine are taking the view that any form of escalation may cause more problems than it solves and quite likely at a higher human cost too. 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Meanwhile let's hope Putin doesn't take Kadyrov's suggestions seriously. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-troops-left-lyman-avoid-encirclement-2022-10-01/

Indeed. If they let Lyman go without response then they really are on the back foot.

I also read another Kadyrov article today where he declared that Ukrainians were not only “Nazi’s” but also “satanists”. 

Ironic coming from Kadyrov.

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