Coronavirus

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Lets face it, we were forced to adopt the half a job vaccination programme we have due to previous shambolic decisions. It was the right thing to do, only because it was the only thing we could do, else the NHS would have fallen over. As it stands it looks like we'll just about get away with it.

Those that are behind us now vaccine wise will soon catch up as their more highly effective jabs will start to have a greater impact on infection levels.

Will be interesting to see what the level of infections are when lockdown/tier restrictions are no longer deemed necessary. Expecting some measures to remain in place for another year at least. 

Not that I disagree, why would we need measures in place for another year?

At least half of the country will have been vaccinated you would have thought, to add to the people with antibodies from previous infection. 

 

[JoetheRam]

12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not that I disagree, why would we need measures in place for another year?

At least half of the country will have been vaccinated you would have thought, to add to the people with antibodies from previous infection. 

 

When I say measures, I mean things like 2m rule, face masks in supermarkets type thing. Some of the softer things that are easier for the population to accept.

My guess (and it's only a guess/hunch - I hope I'm wrong cos I'm bored witless and long fed up of it all) is that the efficacy of the jabs as a result of them being spaced out further than was trialled will not be high enough to fully eradicate it. Government will be keen to be seen to be cautious/caring to make up for their previous and will keep small things in place to show they are "taking action", "tough on Covid, tough on the causes of Covid" etc

[Shuff264]

22 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Lets face it, we were forced to adopt the half a job vaccination programme we have due to previous shambolic decisions. It was the right thing to do, only because it was the only thing we could do, else the NHS would have fallen over. As it stands it looks like we'll just about get away with it.

Those that are behind us now vaccine wise will soon catch up as their more highly effective jabs will start to have a greater impact on infection levels.

Will be interesting to see what the level of infections are when lockdown/tier restrictions are no longer deemed necessary. Expecting some measures to remain in place for another year at least. 

Indie Sage published the below breakdown of COVID stats by age.

Interesting that it shows vaccinating all those over 65 would largely eradicate COVID as a deadly virus but would only reduce ICU pressure by ~40%.

In the coming months its going to be NHS pressure that dictates level of lockdowns, even if the death rate is much much lower.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I don't think there's really any need to pull Australia up. Fair play to them, they went down a path and it's been the right one. Comments about Australia's response, and particularly Albert's comparisons with countries that have fared worse, just sound like sour grapes and jealousy.

We went down a different path. It appears to not be working, and we're the worst performer in Europe for spread of the infection. We need to understand the reasons why, and why other nations did better than we did. I doubt this will be the last species jumping virus we have to contend with, so let's get a really detailed understanding of best practice now, ready for the next time.

I'd like to see all countries with a successful vaccination plan rollout, as we'll never get back to normal until there's control everywhere across the world. Bitterness about who's leading the line doesn't really achieve anything. I hope the UK and Aus both roll out their vaccines in record time. I don't mind being a close second to them, or them being a close second to us. And I certainly won't criticise any country for making sure they have adequate planning before they act. I wish the UK had done more of it.

Which one ? You are being kind, we are all over the place, sadly by the end of next week we'll be on a 100k deaths. Not a ducking clue that lot. 

[Wolfie]

25 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

 Expecting some measures to remain in place for another year at least. 

If they're talking about all adults being vaccinated by September, then we should be able to go back to normal if not well before. Of course it depends on hospital case loads (and further mutations) but by then everyone even at low risk will have been vaccinated or had it already.

 

[GboroRam]

7 minutes ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

Which one ? You are being kind, we are all over the place, sadly by the end of next week we'll be on a 100k deaths. Not a ducking clue that lot. 

Like Stive says, we went for control rather than suppression. I believe we went for herd immunity in the beginning, which is why Cheltenham was given the go-ahead, but the horrific reality kicked in and we tried to backtrack. Countries that went for suppression have had less deaths and faster economic recovery. That's the reality.

[Wolfie]

10 minutes ago, Shuff264 said:

Indie Sage published the below breakdown of COVID stats by age.

Interesting that it shows vaccinating all those over 65 would largely eradicate COVID as a deadly virus but would only reduce ICU pressure by ~40%.

In the coming months its going to be NHS pressure that dictates level of lockdowns, even if the death rate is much much lower.

 

That's only true if vaccinated people can transmit the virus to others as easily as those who haven't been. That isn't known yet.

If they are unable to transmit it, then it will drop the number of cases by an awful lot more.

[Norman]

44 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Am guessing he will now become a fringe scientist?

Yeah, and posts full of conspiracies. 

Or, as it used to called, debate. 

Why some can get away with accusing people of not trusting the government and the scientists, to then not trust them is beyond me. 

Well, it's not. You close down discussion by throwing out extreme terms and trying to make others' OPINIONS look extreme. When they're not. 

And it's a horrible way of having a conversation. 

[JoetheRam]

1 minute ago, Wolfie said:

If they're talking about all adults being vaccinated by September, then we should be able to go back to normal if not well before. Of course it depends on hospital case loads (and further mutations) but by then everyone even at low risk will have been vaccinated or had it already.

 

Guess I don't think, or am pessimistic that everyone will have had the jab by September, and further to my previous post, that the jab's effectiveness will be high enough to have reduced pressures with hospitals to a low enough level.

Of course, summer may have the same effect it did last year, but I do think next winter hospitals will be operating above normal winter pressures (although not as pressured as currently), and some measures will still be in place to mitigate.

Hope I'm wrong.

[alexxxxx]

I'm no expert but I can see why people are a little sceptical of the numbers coming out of the AZ/Oxford vaccine tests - it isn't really clear to the layperson why it was carried out this way or why its reported in the way it has been. 90% vaccine is obviously 50% more effective than a 60% vaccine, however if they are both keeping people out hospital does it matter too much? I still have some trepidation over the AZ/Oxford vaccine and its effectiveness but I hope we can see some evidence soon that it's working. 

Government have done an unrivalled job of the vaccine rollout and a much better job than I thought they would but there's still a long way to go. 

 

[Norman]

3 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Guess I don't think, or am pessimistic that everyone will have had the jab by September, and further to my previous post, that the jab's effectiveness will be high enough to have reduced pressures with hospitals to a low enough level.

Of course, summer may have the same effect it did last year, but I do think next winter hospitals will be operating above normal winter pressures (although not as pressured as currently), and some measures will still be in place to mitigate.

Hope I'm wrong.

This virus thrives in temperatures between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius and under specific humidity. Which is exactly what we have for most of October to March. 

You'd hope the multiple factors of vaccinations, less transmission, more antibodies in the population and the fact that summer will help, we will be looking at the end of this by then. 

[BIllyD]

Although the UK is reporting the highest deaths, this could be down to a number of factors. Some of this I believe is down to the legislation within countries.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/Assets/Documents/PDF/working-paper-series/10-20-Anne-West.pdf

[Gone]

Great news and with the vacation of the vulnerable the end to this poo show is on the horizon at last ? 

 

[Stive Pesley]

25 minutes ago, Norman said:

This virus thrives in temperatures between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius and under specific humidity. Which is exactly what we have for most of October to March. 

You'd hope the multiple factors of vaccinations, less transmission, more antibodies in the population and the fact that summer will help, we will be looking at the end of this by then. 

I flipping hope so. How are you doing anyway? Still suffering or over the worst?

One thing I read was that the danger of letting the virus circulate freely because the most vulnerable have been vaccinated is that it's then a playground for it to mutate and (worst case) become resistant to the vaccine

 

[Grumpy Git]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Like Stive says, we went for control rather than suppression. I believe we went for herd immunity in the beginning, which is why Cheltenham was given the go-ahead, but the horrific reality kicked in and we tried to backtrack. Countries that went for suppression have had less deaths and faster economic recovery. That's the reality.

Matt Hancock and his Jockey Club cronies ENSURED Cheltenham went ahead, "herd immunity" was just a convenient whitewash.

[WhiteHorseRam]

2 minutes ago, Grumpy Git said:

Matt Hancock and his Jockey Club cronies ENSURED Cheltenham went ahead, "heard immunity" was just a convenient whitewash.

I agree with you mate, but they are just not listening.

[Stive Pesley]

I just saw the literal transcript of the response from our Home Secretary when asked why we had the worst daily death rates in the world

Regardless of all our differences on here, and passing no comment on the true answer, surely we all agree that we deserve a better quality of politician than this rambling incoherent mess

 

[G STAR RAM]

2 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I just saw the literal transcript of the response from our Home Secretary when asked why we had the worst daily death rates in the world

Regardless of all our differences on here, and passing no comment on the true answer, surely we all agree that we deserve a better quality of politician than this rambling incoherent mess

 

I'm guessing that is from the 'interview' with Pier Morgan and his sidekick?

To be fair it is pretty hard to answer any question coherently when the person asking the question continues to shout at the respondent after every 5 words.

Put in context, I believe she also said that she believes we should have closed the borders prior to March.

We also deserve better media and accurate reporting.

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, JoetheRam said:

Guess I don't think, or am pessimistic that everyone will have had the jab by September, and further to my previous post, that the jab's effectiveness will be high enough to have reduced pressures with hospitals to a low enough level.

Of course, summer may have the same effect it did last year, but I do think next winter hospitals will be operating above normal winter pressures (although not as pressured as currently), and some measures will still be in place to mitigate.

Hope I'm wrong.

So do I, but it's a perfectly reasonable view to have.

I'm always more inclined to take an optimistic (but hopefully still realistic) view of things. We shall see.......

[Gone]

57 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Great news and with the vacation of the vulnerable the end to this poo show is on the horizon at last ? 

 

To add to the positive news Over 10% of the UK’s adult population have now received their first vaccine dose.