Coronavirus

[Tamworthram]

6 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

One of my research associates who's a brilliant professor in America modelled what would happen if you asked people to volunteer to be infected now, and then go into strict quarantine until they developed immunity so as not to pass the infection on to anyone else.

Taking random volunteers from the population would save 60% of lives.

Taking elderly volunteers would actually save 70% of lives (because they could have treatment before the health system became overwhelmed).

Taking young volunteers would save  80% of lives (as they would largely be unharmed as well as increasing the immunity in the population).

It's a shame we live in a society too afraid to talk openly about these as potential options, but if Boris came out with it the frenzied media would slaughter him.

How many volunteers would be required to achieve those sort of savings? He must have used some data. Not dismissing the idea but it sounds like an awful lot of volunteers would be needed. You could infect the whole of Derby but that isn’t going to help much in other parts of the country. You could infect 10% of a particular age group (a very big number) but that would still leave 90% exposed to everyone except the 10% volunteers.

[Ghost of Clough]

17 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

How many volunteers would be required to achieve those sort of savings? He must have used some data. Not dismissing the idea but it sounds like an awful lot of volunteers would be needed. You could infect the whole of Derby but that isn’t going to help much in other parts of the country. You could infect 10% of a particular age group (a very big number) but that would still leave 90% exposed to everyone except the 10% volunteers.

But that 10% will not be able to pass it on, so the rate of infection is reduced. It also gives you the option of choosing when people get the infection, which would minimise the peak workload on the NHS and give those highest at risk a greater chance of survival. 

[SSD]

4th day of working from home. Work's intranet cant cope, Im less productive as a result. Still getting bombarded with questions and demands. Not fun at all. 

[Tamworthram]

25 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

But that 10% will not be able to pass it on, so the rate of infection is reduced. It also gives you the option of choosing when people get the infection, which would minimise the peak workload on the NHS and give those highest at risk a greater chance of survival. 

Yes, I understand that but would infecting just 10% reduce the lives lost by 60, 70 or 80%? Maybe it would, I don’t know.

[richinspain]

@Carl Sagan Surely self infecting a certain percentage would only work if the rest of the population stuck strictly to the self isolation? Those that have to go out and about, whether it be for work or just to buy (even the panic buyers will need to buy eventually), will still be exposed. Add in the complete bamfords, as we saw in the swimming pool video, and it's going to be very difficult to get it to work. There will also be a fair percentage of people already infected waiting for the symptoms to show themselves. Surely it's already too late for it to work?

[Gaspode]

1 hour ago, alexxxxx said:

In London at least it seems that corner shops/small independent supermarkets have better stocked shelves than sainsburys. 

Where do you think the corner shops are getting their supplies from?.....?

[ossieram]

2 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

In London at least it seems that corner shops/small independent supermarkets have better stocked shelves than sainsburys. 

That's because a lot of these small shops (not all) are hiking up prices after buying it in bulk from the supermarkets. One shopkeeper had to change his prices after being threatend when he put a sign in his window offering 12 packs of bog roll for £12.

[Duracell]

2 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

In London at least it seems that corner shops/small independent supermarkets have better stocked shelves than sainsburys. 

There's a lot of people who travel into the capital during the week who now work from home and fewer larger supermarkets also mean many Londoners buy less but more often. I've yet to go shopping and not get something I've needed. Just another example of the weird bubble you live in when you're in the capital, drumming to a different beat to the rest of the country.

[rynny]

 

[GboroRam]

3 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

In London at least it seems that corner shops/small independent supermarkets have better stocked shelves than sainsburys. 

The supermarkets have plenty of stock. They are drip-feeding it to the shelves, as people are panic buying it all.

[Tamworthram]

On 06/03/2020 at 15:50, Ghost of Clough said:

Interesting if correct. 

Supposedly it’s due to ACE2 receptors which develop with age and are more prevalent in East Asians (specifically Japan and China)

Maybe there is more to this than we first thought. only 2 deaths (so far) in Portugal (Portuguese are not listed as a high risk) but 700+ in Spain. However, I find it hard to believe the variance has anything to do with genetics or heritage. I can't imagine the DNA of a Portuguese person is significantly different to the Iberian population in Spain. 

[Bigfella]

[Mucker1884]

57 minutes ago, rynny said:

 

If I knew how, I would go out and buy twitter for myself, just to offer this guy a virtual handshake.

... And the words fit too... I sang it, as I read!   :-)  

[Bob The Badger]

4 hours ago, Archied said:

If way more people have got it / had it but are unknown because no testing then that perhaps could be a positive in terms of survival rates from catching it ?

I honestly don't know mate. Possibly for the younger and fitter I guess. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tests positive for COVID-19.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Maybe there is more to this than we first thought. only 2 deaths (so far) in Portugal (Portuguese are not listed as a high risk) but 700+ in Spain. However, I find it hard to believe the variance has anything to do with genetics or heritage. I can't imagine the DNA of a Portuguese person is significantly different to the Iberian population in Spain. 

You'd need to look in to who has been exposed to it in each country (age, health, etc), and the rate of spreading in the countries.

[Bigfella]

30 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tests positive for COVID-19.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128

I bet he never bargained for that.

[Ghost of Clough]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

You'd need to look in to who has been exposed to it in each country (age, health, etc), and the rate of spreading in the countries.

Additional info:

Spain's first death wasn't until they had over 160 cases. Portugal didn't reach that point until 5 days ago. The margin of error is quite large with such a small sample size, so I think it's difficult to make a true comparison until next week.

[Coneheadjohn]

Thought this might lighten the mood?

 

[dog]

Just had a phone call from work and I was looking forward to talking to something that wasn't a pencil.

Instead it turns out that someone I work with has it. Fairly young (daughter of eight) but now in hospital in Nottingham suffering from not only the virus but also pneumonia.

A week ago I was 'Naahh', not any more.