RamNut Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, Eddie said: Here's a suggestion - those of us who have been confined to the house for 12 weeks should, come the start of July, be allowed a week to go out and everyone else stay at home for 24 hours a day. Just one week. I haven’t seen your letter but everything I have seen is ‘guidance’ and uses words like ‘should’. If you want to go out, go out. just keep your distance etc. p.s. remember to wave to the drone ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Much as I want to and will work whenever poss We are also about to enter some serious debate regards sections of the country expected to return to work and risk their lives and lives of families to keep the economy running whilst some are not then they will be told they can not socialise or see family and face lots of other restrictions whilst taking these risks , also would it not be a good idea to get the transport network running at full capacity before this return to work to give the max chance of safe distancing and minimise virus spread? I really wish we had done more of a Sweden with massive emphasis on safe distancing ,ramping up test right off the bat , ban mass gathering and the like , I think we are really going to find the route out of this a nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 I don’t think we have the data to make informed decisions. not even sure whether we have the necessary data to calculate the magical R number, which would vary by location anyway. how can we know whether it’s safe to open schools when we don’t know the numbers? how many people in Derbyshire are currently actively infected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, RamNut said: I don’t think we have the data to make informed decisions. not even sure whether we have the necessary data to calculate the magical R number, which would vary by location anyway. how can we know whether it’s safe to open schools when we don’t know the numbers? how many people in Derbyshire are currently actively infected? Thing is you can turn that round and say do we have the data to support full lockdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Perhaps the corona-god is angry and we need to offer up a human sacrifice. we need a virgin. where is Ann Widdecombe these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWC1983 Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Ignore the political side of the thread on the tweet. On the equation, should the + sign not be a × sign instead? Surely that would be a better measure of where the alert level should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Archied said: Thing is you can turn that round and say do we have the data to support full lockdown Full lockdown is surely the risk averse, we-know-nothing option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, CWC1983 said: Ignore the political side of the thread on the tweet. On the equation, should the + sign not be a × sign instead? Surely that would be a better measure of where the alert level should be. It did seem odd when I first saw it. Boris’ wording suggested the level is determined by the R number and the number of infections, rather than being an equation to calculate the level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 I honestly believe the best way to unlock from covid 19 would be to do it region by region. If you could shut the motorways down between regions then the areas with less cases could start to open back up more quickly. As is, we still have quite a lot of cases but a lot are concentrated in the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gritstone Ram Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: It did seem odd when I first saw it. Boris’ wording suggested the level is determined by the R number and the number of infections, rather than being an equation to calculate the level. Is it fake news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, RamNut said: I haven’t seen your letter but everything I have seen is ‘guidance’ and uses words like ‘should’. If you want to go out, go out. just keep your distance etc. p.s. remember to wave to the drone ?? Yes, it is 'advice', with the odd "You should follow this advice" thrown in for emphasis. There's enough droning already without me encouraging it by waving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 1 hour ago, RamNut said: I don’t think we have the data to make informed decisions. not even sure whether we have the necessary data to calculate the magical R number, which would vary by location anyway. how can we know whether it’s safe to open schools when we don’t know the numbers? how many people in Derbyshire are currently actively infected? Said this to the wife earlier. I don't actually understand how they are coming up with the 0.5-0.9 figure as hardly anyone's been tested. Is it like one of these shampoo adverts where they randomly test a few hundred people on how they rate the product in the hope they get an answer they want . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramit Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 13 hours ago, King Kevin said: Surprised nobodies picked this up, on the radio yesterday the reason some care homes have been badly hit is patients have been send there from hospitals with Covid 19. Now if true and it looks like it might be that is a rooster up of huge proportions. If true, it is not a rooster up, it is intentionally putting people in harms way, a criminal act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB_DCFC Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 1 hour ago, CWC1983 said: Ignore the political side of the thread on the tweet. On the equation, should the + sign not be a × sign instead? Surely that would be a better measure of where the alert level should be. I suspect it is supposed to mean "R and infections", and not a mathematical equation, because if it is, the government just incentivesed reducing the number of tests (as the number of known infections would therefore decrease). I don't think that's the case, it's just a poorly formatted slide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said: Said this to the wife earlier. I don't actually understand how they are coming up with the 0.5-0.9 figure as hardly anyone's been tested. Is it like one of these shampoo adverts where they randomly test a few hundred people on how they rate the product in the hope they get an answer they want . It’s fake science. we are in a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucker1884 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 7 hours ago, Andicis said: I honestly believe the best way to unlock from covid 19 would be to do it region by region. If you could shut the motorways down between regions then the areas with less cases could start to open back up more quickly. As is, we still have quite a lot of cases but a lot are concentrated in the same areas. I'm not convinced that would work on this small, cramped island of ours. Makes more sense in the larger, more spaced out countries. eg France & Spain. Would possibly work in the extremities of Cornwall/Devon and The HIghlands and Islands, but for the majority of the Island? Where would our area borders be? Some county lines are heavily populated and many would need to cross those lines twixt home and work, yet still only be half an hour between the two, so still "working locally", yet not allowed to cross the divide. Making up and changing these borders on the spot, to coincide with infection numbers, on a daily/weekly basis would be far too confusing, and contentious. Streets would literally be split by the white line down the middle. It a nice idea. A good idea. But I can't seeing being workable for little old Blighty. ?♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 For all you Londoners: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 On a personal selfish note , virgin broadband engineers need to get their lazy butts out to work bloody middle class wannabees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said: Said this to the wife earlier. I don't actually understand how they are coming up with the 0.5-0.9 figure as hardly anyone's been tested. Is it like one of these shampoo adverts where they randomly test a few hundred people on how they rate the product in the hope they get an answer they want . I was wondering how they actually do this too. Must be with some huge estimates in there. This is my guess. If you went back to late March, you knew how many people were testing positive each week, mostly going into hospital You could then estimate how many people would need to be affected to produce that many serious cases based on the results of other countries/past knowledge of other diseases. Once you had these estimated population numbers by week, you might be able to model R using a few assumptions. Johnson said R is between 0.5 and 0.9. That is a very big different in rate, which is the sort of answer you get from these big assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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