Ghost of Clough Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said: What's a "closed" case? The way I see it, if you catch it, you're either getting worse; recovering; recovered or dead So I'm guessing a closed case is either recovered or dead. The vast majority of current cases won't be classed as recovered yet, so of course the % of dead vs recovered is going to be a bigger number. A closed case is as you've described - someone that's either recovered or died. A mortality rate based on closed cases will usually over-estimate it, whereas a rate based on total cases will under-estimate it. You can estimate a true mortality rate based on the trends of both instances - which looks to be somewhere between 3.5-4.5% at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Ireland have anounced School/college closures from tomorrow. Bloody hope they don't have to do it here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: A closed case is as you've described - someone that's either recovered or died. A mortality rate based on closed cases will usually over-estimate it, whereas a rate based on total cases will under-estimate it. You can estimate a true mortality rate based on the trends of both instances - which looks to be somewhere between 3.5-4.5% at the moment. Which looks reasonable. Quoting mortality rates of up to 80% of closed cases early in an outbreak is just alarmist and unhelpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 2 hours ago, ariotofmyown said: If only we had been a bit more cautious when treating our largest trading partner as an enemy and regularly bringing up 2nd world war references to fire up the angry public. You need your friends even more in times of crisis. I'm worried Trump is gonna end up as our only ally. You what? Is there any evidence that the rest of the world, Europe in particular, are turning against us over this crisis? Besides which, the US are our largest single trade partners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said: Ireland have anounced School/college closures from tomorrow. Bloody hope they don't have to do it here yet. It's coming any day. I have friends at both the University and local schools, they are all being told it's not a matter of if - but when To be honest, I'm not sure why we are delaying the announcement. With a 2 week Easter holiday coming up, could easily close for 4 weeks without causing too big an impact (beyond what a 2 week holiday does anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coneheadjohn Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Red_Dawn said: Mate Lidl were out of canned Chickpeas this morning.. None How will I survive on my new plant based diet noow? I live in Ripley if you can help I’ll fetch you a tin to Ripley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coneheadjohn Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone struggling,I can hook you up! Its Cushelle as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: It's coming any day. I have friends at both the University and local schools, they are all being told it's not a matter of if - but when To be honest, I'm not sure why we are delaying the announcement. With a 2 week Easter holiday coming up, could easily close for 4 weeks without causing too big an impact (beyond what a 2 week holiday does anyway) The 2-week Easter break isn't for another 3 and a half weeks. Start now and that's 5 and a half weeks off (5 in reality). I think we'll try to get through another week first, so Easter will start next weekend for school kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Just now, Van Cone De Head said: Anyone struggling,I can hook you up! @Pastinaak hid all the ketchup in the store... can you drop some off round mine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: It's coming any day. I have friends at both the University and local schools, they are all being told it's not a matter of if - but when To be honest, I'm not sure why we are delaying the announcement. With a 2 week Easter holiday coming up, could easily close for 4 weeks without causing too big an impact (beyond what a 2 week holiday does anyway) Presumably don't want to do it until the advice says they should, because of the chaos it will cause. Both me & Mrs Wolfie are lucky in that we can fairly easily work from home. How many NHS workers are going to have to stay at home to look after kids?. I can completely understand the delay - as long as it's evidence based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Ram Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: The 2-week Easter break isn't for another 3 and a half weeks. Start now and that's 5 and a half weeks off (5 in reality). I think we'll try to get through another week first, so Easter will start next weekend for school kids. The wife is a teacher and was told yesterday it was any day now at her staff meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Ram for All Seasons Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: You what? Is there any evidence that the rest of the world, Europe in particular, are turning against us over this crisis? Besides which, the US are our largest single trade partners. It's not that Europe is turning against Britain, but Britain is turning against Europe. Fir instance, Tory MPs voted against a clause in the withdrawal agreement that would have required the government to negotiate continuing full membership of the Erasmus student exchange programme after the end of the 11-month Brexit transition period. The development of vaccines, especially on such a short time scale, depends on some very clever people in universities and laboratories working very hard together and sharing their results and expertise in a spirit of international cooperation. It's far too big a job for anyone to do alone, even for a genius like Alexander Fleming. By wilfully and spitefully cutting itself off from the European scientific community, the Tory government will ensure that Britons remain isolated, thick and, if the worst comes to the worst, dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coneheadjohn Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: @Pastinaak hid all the ketchup in the store... can you drop some off round mine? It’s a tenner a bag(3 sheets) but I’m doing it for a fiver for(sensible) forum members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkFruitsRam7 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: It's coming any day. I have friends at both the University and local schools, they are all being told it's not a matter of if - but when To be honest, I'm not sure why we are delaying the announcement. With a 2 week Easter holiday coming up, could easily close for 4 weeks without causing too big an impact (beyond what a 2 week holiday does anyway) I imagine it will be the same for unis. I do wonder what the effect will be on our exams and subsequent results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Van Cone De Head said: It’s a tenner a bag(3 sheets) but I’m doing it for a fiver for(sensible) forum members. Bargain! Cheers ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said: I imagine it will be the same for unis. I do wonder what the effect will be on our exams and subsequent results. At a guess, if the exams are cancelled, then I’d expect this semesters modules credits to be written off, and the other modules to be weighted higher to make up the final grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norman Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, A Ram for All Seasons said: It's not that Europe is turning against Britain, but Britain is turning against Europe. Fir instance, Tory MPs voted against a clause in the withdrawal agreement that would have required the government to negotiate continuing full membership of the Erasmus student exchange programme after the end of the 11-month Brexit transition period. The development of vaccines, especially on such a short time scale, depends on some very clever people in universities and laboratories working very hard together and sharing their results and expertise in a spirit of international cooperation. It's far too big a job for anyone to do alone, even for a genius like Alexander Fleming. By wilfully and spitefully cutting itself off from the European scientific community, the Tory government will ensure that Britons remain isolated, thick and, if the worst comes to the worst, dead. I actually built a house for a professor who is an expert in tropical diseases. I know him and his wife very well. He's in Canada. You speak sooooooo much poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteHorseRam Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 54 minutes ago, Van Cone De Head said: Anyone struggling,I can hook you up! Its Cushelle as well? WATCH OUT! I've heard he's cut it with Car Boot kitchen roll. #Bumrazors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Ram for All Seasons Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Norman said: I actually built a house for a professor who is an expert in tropical diseases. I know him and his wife very well. He's in Canada. You speak sooooooo much poo You ought to stick to posting about prolapsed rectums and your all-day boozing sessions then. Were there any professors in the pub with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteHorseRam Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said: I imagine it will be the same for unis. I do wonder what the effect will be on our exams and subsequent results. You are a ridiculously bright lad and this is happening to everybody. You will be fine. Think about when you are 35, a successful lawyer, driving a road shagger and sniffing happy powder of some lady's swimming costume area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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