The Politics Thread 2019

[Highgate]

Just now, Spanish said:

much as though I don't want you gives to leave I think you've had the vote on leave or stay, it was badly done but that's it.  The vote should now be on how leave is achieved otherwise the ones wanting an organised departure will feel they have to vote no deal.  What an effing mess

Well we didn't get to vote on it here in ROI obviously ? .   Although we will be hugely effected, with our largest trading partner pulling out of the EU, and us now having to trade with our next largest trading partners through a non EU state.  And that's not even taking into account that calamities that could occur if a hard border reappears on the island.  So I can't be said to be unbiased

I don't agree with the suggestion that the vote was done therefore another cannot be held.  For me, the next one would be substantially different, but that debate has been had at length here before.  I understand that plenty of people disagree with me and hold your view instead.

[ariotofmyown]

3 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Well we didn't get to vote on it here in ROI obviously ? .   Although we will be hugely effected, with our largest trading partner pulling out of the EU, and us now having to trade with our next largest trading partners through a non EU state.  And that's not even taking into account that calamities that could occur if a hard border reappears on the island.  So I can't be said to be unbiased

I don't agree with the suggestion that the vote was done therefore another cannot be held.  For me, the next one would be substantially different, but that debate has been had at length here before.  I understand that plenty of people disagree with me and hold your view instead.

None of this would be a problem if we took back control of the pesky Irish, which is our divine right as the greatest country on earth.

[AndyinLiverpool]

5 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Well we didn't get to vote on it here in ROI obviously ? .   Although we will be hugely effected, with our largest trading partner pulling out of the EU, and us now having to trade with our next largest trading partners through a non EU state.  And that's not even taking into account that calamities that could occur if a hard border reappears on the island.  So I can't be said to be unbiased

I don't agree with the suggestion that the vote was done therefore another cannot be held.  For me, the next one would be substantially different, but that debate has been had at length here before.  I understand that plenty of people disagree with me and hold your view instead.

I am currently in Ireland at the in-laws and  it’s so tempting to just stay here. That might have more to do with the sunny weather mind. 

[Highgate]

Just now, AndyinLiverpool said:

I am currently in Ireland at the in-laws and  it’s so tempting to just stay here. That might have more to do with the sunny weather mind. 

Do stay! Mind you if it's weather related, you'll probably change your mind soon enough! If you have any Irish roots or indeed just hang around for long enough then I'm sure we can rustle you up a passport..making you an EU citizen again.  Even if you don't, I know someone ?.  You'd have to consider changing your handle to AndyinIreland though.

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, FindernRam said:

Just what rights are we losing? Apart from being ruled by a foreign band of self important wallet stuffing non-entities. 

That you even ask the question and then follow it up with a meaningless piece of rhetoric is indicative of where we are at.

People are just ignoring facts and parroting nonsensical bluster.

Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement ring-fenced all citizen's rights as part of the deal.

That was rejected and if we leave without a Withdrawal Agreement then there is no ring fencing of anything. It's a free for all. The rights currently conferred on us as citizens of the European Union disappear overnight.

Those who want to "just get on with a no deal" are unimaginably naive

[AndyinLiverpool]

12 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Do stay! Mind you if it's weather related, you'll probably change your mind soon enough! If you have any Irish roots or indeed just hang around for long enough then I'm sure we can rustle you up a passport..making you an EU citizen again.  Even if you don't, I know someone ?.  You'd have to consider changing your handle to AndyinIreland though.

Her indoors is Irish and the kids have Irish passports so should be easy enough. And another change of handle (I used to be in Prague) is not a problem. I don’t even mind rain. 

[BaaLocks]

2 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Throwing a plebiscite into that was always going to be divisive, though to call it a civil war doesn't strike me as being especially measured.

Nope, I agree with @FindernRam, especially after you put back in the 'weapon less' part that you took out. There are huge parallels here between what started the English Civil War - in essence the action of the monarch to disrespect Parliament. I don't say we'll be hoisting pikes at Edge Hill and Marston Moor but I do say it is of equal constitutional importance what is happening right here and now.

We can argue over facts as long as we like but the largest one to be considered in terms of the potential backlash is the one that the Brexiters keep quoting, that 17.4m voted to leave. How many of those would be opposed to no deal is not clear, but what is clear is that of the 46m eiligible voters in the UK somewhere around two in three did not vote for leave in any capacity. I don't say that gives them the right to cancel Brexit but it does give them the right to believe they didn't get what they voted (or chose not to vote) for. The vote itself was won by a margin of half a million people (in that this was the number of people who would have changed the result had they voted the other way). That's about the home attendance of the top ten football teams in Britain - not insignificant by any terms but I would seriously caution that it is far, far, far from a number that can be rode rough shod over.

Boris is taking an extremely risky path here, one that I simply do not believe he has the popularist support to back him. And besides that, he's a lying, duplicitious self serving twit who cares not one jot for anything other than his foolhardy belief that he can write himself a Churchillain chapter of British history. Oh, and I was doing so well till that last bit.....

[BaaLocks]

24 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Those who want to "just get on with a no deal" are unimaginably naive

Those who just want to get on with it largely fail to believe that anything bad could happen here. It's just bally well not cricket, we're all too fond of cucumber sandwiches and jugs of real ale to let that sort of thing get that out of hand. Damn you sir, no!

I know I will sound a bit alarmist but so did many people in many countries over the last hundred years who equally believed it couldn't happen in their back yard but when we read the history books now all we can see is a trail of mistakes that 'they must have seen where it was going to go'. Now what 'it' is still remains to be seen - but some Polish painter and decorater, some Nigerian hospital worker, some mouthy young lad who speaks up a bit too much in a pub, all getting a bit of a telling off / swearing at / thump / right good kicking well they're the thin end of the wedge.

If this thing does cleave - and there is a risk - then it does it right down the middle of your street, right through the middle of your bus to work, right through the family dining table. And once it does go it goes so quickly that we won't be able to stop it - not even Trevor McDoughnut telling us all to calm down and have a cup if tea will be enough.

OK, it's dramatic, maybe far fetched, but I always think you should consider the worst case scenrio and then make sure you prevent that. From there consider the next worst scenario and so on. If you get back to the PM not knowing where we export pork pies to then fair enough, but the other scenarios are still possibilities. And I admit that I do start to fear exactly where all of this could go....

[Stive Pesley]

6 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

OK, it's dramatic, maybe far fetched, but I always think you should consider the worst case scenrio and then make sure you prevent that. From there consider the next worst scenario and so on. If you get back to the PM not knowing where we export pork pies to then fair enough, but the other scenarios are still possibilities. And I admit that I do start to fear exactly where all of this could go....

Worst case? OK Here's goes..

Ending the parliamentary session, means a Queen's Speech on Oct 14th. Assuming that this will have to lay out a no-deal Brexit (what other options are there 2 weeks before the deadline, when we haven't negotiated any alternative?) - that will struggle to be voted through given his lack of majority - which means a general election. Except a GE timetable starting from mid-October means an election in late November/early December at the earliest. Which means parliament is dissolved and we will have no functioning government on 31st October and will leave the EU by default with no deal. So the country will be in disarray, and no longer a member of the EU. Chaos everywhere as transport networks and distribution problems start to fail. Who wins a general election in those circumstances?

 

[King Kevin]

4 hours ago, 1967Ram said:

This is no doubt true for for the 'remainers'. However, there are many MPs in Parliament who are simply opposed to leaving with no deal. The Leave 'side' promised that getting a deal would be easy - leaving with no deal wasn't even mentioned as far as I can remember. Personally, I don't think that 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU with no deal.

It's going to be an interesting few months I think.

It would have been a lot easier without that dork May negotiating it.

[bcnram]

I voted remain and believed that the vote should reach 55 or even 60% either way to avoid just this deadlock. However, we have to leave, the country cannot go on with this impasse. To me it is refreshing to have a PM who is prepared to make things happen, no matter what Corbyn and the politburo may think. 

[Highgate]

Just now, AndyinLiverpool said:

Her indoors is Irish and the kids have Irish passports so should be easy enough. And another change of handle (I used to be in Prague) is not a problem. I don’t even mind rain. 

It's pretty much a done deal then ? 

 

[Uptherams]

2 hours ago, Highgate said:

When it becomes a No Deal scenario....just a simple referendum   No Deal  vs  Remain.   No split vote.  If no deal wins ...game over.  Argument finished and the UK (and Ireland for that matter) can start picking up the pieces.  Sorry, I mean can start exploring exciting new opportunities. ?

The vote was to leave or remain. Nothing about any kind of 'deal'. 

[Uptherams]

2 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

That sounds fair. The only problem is that the people voting for this have no idea how any of the options would actually pan out. Bit like the last one really.

What % of those eligible have any idea about trade tariffs, WTO terms, the differences between the EU vs the Euro vs the single market. They all know about the EU trying to ban our British bendy bananas though, and lots of other stories Johnson made up whilst been paid to be a liar in Brussels.

Every election is complex, if we wanted to discuss all possibilities. Democracies prevent purgatory. The reality is that simple answers to complex questions and even 'guessing' are scientifically proven to be more accurate than analysts. This is even proven with the stock market. People are only willing to debate and listen to analysts and experts so much. They don't want a constant discussion, they don't want purgatory. Which is one of the great things about campaigns for general elections in the UK being so short. 

[Uptherams]

29 minutes ago, bcnram said:

I voted remain and believed that the vote should reach 55 or even 60% either way to avoid just this deadlock. However, we have to leave, the country cannot go on with this impasse. To me it is refreshing to have a PM who is prepared to make things happen, no matter what Corbyn and the politburo may think. 

I agree. What's the point if elections never lead to any real change. The biggest cause of populism in the West in recent years is down to the lack of differences between political parties and governments. The last 20 years have been pretty pointless, politically in the UK. 

Like them or loathe them, Trump and Boris are going to be talked about in 100 years time and not because of superficial matters. They will form a good partnership too. 

[Highgate]

Just now, Uptherams said:

The vote was to leave or remain. Nothing about any kind of 'deal'. 

Which was precisely the problem as far as I'm concerned.

[Uptherams]

11 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Which was precisely the problem as far as I'm concerned.

I'd argue long term, it's not. Once a referendum was decided and it was going to happen eventually, there was no longer going to be a status quo. So many questions could have been asked, getting into far more detail and that would have lead to a long term crisis. 

[dog]

Anyone else stacking up with tins?

[Pearl Ram]

Not tins exactly but just ordered another couple of cases of Krug 95 just in case.

[Carl Sagan]

4 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

I'm surprised by your views on this mess@Carl Sagan, you always struck me as one of the more sensible posters on here.

How do you, let alone "PM" Johnson plan to deal with Irish Border question in the event of a No Deal Brexit?

There is no detail. There is no plan. Johnson and his extremist buddies are playing with people's lives. I wouldn't even be surprised if Johnson, Cummings, Mogg etc would welcome an escalation in tensions in Northern Ireland as it would allow them to play the strongmen as they try to boost nationalistic sentiment in England.

There is so much damning evidence of how Johnson is a incoherent imposter, I'm surprised you give him any sort of kudos.

Almost half of the country were upset by the EU referendum result and angry by the lies told throughout the campaign.

But the leave side told us throughout how leaving would be fine, how we could have our cake and eat it, how the EU needed us more than we needed them, how the deal would be the easiest thing ever, how not a shot was fired (assuming we ignored the one that killed Jo Cox by a nutter who discovered his views were becoming more mainstream).

When you are been told all this by conmen, chancers and liars like Johnson, Davies, Mogg, Banks, IDS etc, you can't blame remainers for been rather worried about things may actually pan out.

If I worked for a firm who did most of it's business in the EU, I would be seriously worried today.  If I worked for a firm who did most of it's business with firms, that did most of their business with the EU, I would also be seriously worried.

If I was worked for a hedge fund who had spent the last 3 years betting against the UK and/or a privately rich disaster capitalist with no conscience, I would be rubbing my hands with glee.

The poor and desperate who were tricked into voting for Brexit are about to discover who the real elite are.

Varadkar weaponized the Irish border for internal political reasons. Currently within the EU we have a border because there are different currencies and VAT regimes either side of it. So there is plenty of infrastructure with number plate recognition cameras at crossing points, and VAT checks performed away from the border. In 1923 we created the common travel area between Ireland and the UK allowing free unencumbered movement between the two.

I've heard dozens of the world's top customs experts say there's no issue. If it proves that there is, I'd put it to tender with the UK's top IT companies and insist on a healthy royalty (20%?) from all future sales of the resulting technology around the world.

There's nothing wrong with wanting to be an independent self-governing country. I could be wrong but it sounds as though you've bought into the media narrative that Boris is some sort of evil figure rather than the most socially liberal Tory leader in living memory. I judge people by what they do and since he took over he hasn't put a foot wrong. Really impressive administration after the vacuum of leadership under Theresa May.

The referendum was badly organized by Cameron and by Parliament. That's Parliament's fault. But it was a very detailed campaign with all sides under scrutiny. The people decided to leave. Theresa May tried to find middle ground, but you can't half leave. And you can't pick and choose which democratic votes you choose to accept.