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The Politics Thread 2019


David

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11 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

...many areas of deprived inner cities in the UK have benefitted for years from EU support - but that wasn't exciting enough to paint on a bus.

Can you put a figure on this?

If so, compare it to the contributions we will save by not being a member of the EU.

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5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

It would have been possible to make reasonable estimates of how much we would have to pay to the EU and how many EU migrants would have entered the UK in the days/weeks/months after a vote.

I think for the first time in a long time people chose to vote on a long term vision rather than the days/weeks/months ahead.

Past performance can be used as a decent indicator of the future. People have seen how a European Economic Community had, without being mandated, transformed into a European political union and they didnt like where they believed it was heading.

and how does past performance work in brexit land?  where is that heading?  I cross a border twice a day every work day and I have no idea how taking back control of the border will affect me.  In my case we haven't as much taken back control but relinquished it.  

You seem so confident that you know what brexit looks like but you have failed to convince me.  Anyway, fingers crossed, border crossed, everything crossed I hope it delivers what everybody expects

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3 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So you can safely say that if we leave with no deal that no German cars will enter the UK until the Irish border problem is resolved?

No, but I can safely say that we will need insulin before we need a new BMW. And if there is no trade deal in place to import either the EU will likely say that they only export to countries who respect their borders.

My point is that I don't know the actual answer, nobody does, but I can take a fair guess that we will need things quickly and a no deal Brexit puts us firmly in the bitch position around the negotiating table.

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7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Can you put a figure on this?

If so, compare it to the contributions we will save by not being a member of the EU.

Oh we are so far beyond those conversations now. There is no case to prove, or not prove I am afraid. We are now in a place where the only consideration is to do this without this barmpot taking the whole country down the toilet at the same time. Seriously, it is about that.

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35 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

A lot of people voted remain in the hope of "reforming the EU" as apposed to keeping things as they are.

But that was exactly what Cameron tried to do (and failed) and what brought about the referendum promise in the first place.

We've been consistently seen as reluctant EU members - what with our vetos and rebates and resisting further integration/single currency etc. We've been holding back the EU project for decades. There's no way the EU will agree to meaningful reforms just to keep us moaning Brits in the gang.

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4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Can you put a figure on this?

If so, compare it to the contributions we will save by not being a member of the EU.

Do you honestly think that any savings, real or imaginary, will be spent by this government on deprived areas? Unless there is a deprived area in the Cayman Islands currently home to thousands of deprived merchant bankers or hedge-fund owners struggling for their next Jeroboam of Chateau Mouton Rothschild 1945, of course.

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14 hours ago, Uptherams said:

What's the point if elections never lead to any real change. The biggest cause of populism in the West in recent years is down to the lack of differences between political parties and governments. The last 20 years have been pretty pointless, politically in the UK.

UTR - we agree on almost nothing politically (to the point where the Mods asked us politely to call a truce in the old Brexit thread!) - but I am not afraid to say that you are 100% correct here in your analysis.

The fact that the mainstream parties all campaigned badly on a remain ticket underlined that for a lot of people. If you're sick of the way nothing has ever really changed in politics, then suddenly you are given the chance to vote against the status quo - that is always going to appeal.

I genuinely think it was that "protest vote" sector who ultimately swung the referendum. And who can blame them really. The blame has to wholly rest with the political parties who left them feeling so disenfranchised

 

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39 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

It was, you're right, and it was beyond stupid that was it. It was also beyond stupid that there was no decisive margin in place - this thing could have tipped on one vote and (in a country of >60m people) it just about did.

Maybe some of the extreme Leave proponents might get a bit further if they remembered that rather than giving it the 'Remoaners need to realise the people spoke' line at every opportunity. This was not a decisive vote and we needed to proceed in respect of that, on either side. But we gave too much air time to the wrong people and we now are in a place where the rift is significant and growning embittered.

All that BoJoke's actions over the last 24 hours have done is deepen the divide and ensure that the time when the debate does happen, in a now shortened window, will be even more partisan than before. And it is not 80% of the people telling the majority to tow the line - like it or not this is a split country and we must appreciate that 'my way or the highway' is not going to end well (if for no other reason than that no two people are agreed on what 'my way' looks like).

A big majority accept the outcome. Whether or not it's what they voted for or want. If that weren't the case then a second referendum would have some weight behind it. That's what ultimately matters. Not how close it was but if the people believe in the system. And 1 million isn't actually close. 

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9 minutes ago, Spanish said:

and how does past performance work in brexit land?  where is that heading?  I cross a border twice a day every work day and I have no idea how taking back control of the border will affect me.  In my case we haven't as much taken back control but relinquished it.  

You seem so confident that you know what brexit looks like but you have failed to convince me.  Anyway, fingers crossed, border crossed, everything crossed I hope it delivers what everybody expects

So, you have issues that are personal to you and you voted accordingly. I respect your right to do that.

8 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

No, but I can safely say that we will need insulin before we need a new BMW. And if there is no trade deal in place to import either the EU will likely say that they only export to countries who respect their borders.

My point is that I don't know the actual answer, nobody does, but I can take a fair guess that we will need things quickly and a no deal Brexit puts us firmly in the bitch position around the negotiating table.

If the EU would stop life saving supplies from being imported to safe their protectionist racket that should tell you all you need to know about them.

I disagree, I think the big black hole our lost contributions and lost trade will cause the EU will put is in a much better negotiating position.

I imagine it just might be possible for us to import things from outside the EU too.

4 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Oh we are so far beyond those conversations now. There is no case to prove, or not prove I am afraid. We are now in a place where the only consideration is to do this without this barmpot taking the whole country down the toilet at the same time. Seriously, it is about that.

That's your personal opinion which you dont really have anything to back up with but that is your right and I respect your view.

4 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

Do you honestly think that any savings, real or imaginary, will be spent by this government on deprived areas? Unless there is a deprived area in the Cayman Islands currently home to thousands of deprived merchant bankers or hedge-fund owners struggling for their next Jeroboam of Chateau Mouton Rothschild 1945, of course.

I have no idea.

However, if my government is not spending in areas that I believe they should be, I have the chance to help remove them from power in the next general election.

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4 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

But that was exactly what Cameron tried to do (and failed) and what brought about the referendum promise in the first place.

We've been consistently seen as reluctant EU members - what with our vetos and rebates and resisting further integration/single currency etc. We've been holding back the EU project for decades. There's no way the EU will agree to meaningful reforms just to keep us moaning Brits in the gang.

Have you or anyone else looked at the DiEM25 project? It aims for a new people-led truly democratic European project by 2025

https://diem25.org/manifesto-short-version/

How realistic they are being is another matter, but the manifesto is the first thing I've read that feels like it could actually appeal to both Leave and Remain voters, so am interested to hear others views on that

 

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8 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

If he is resident in Spain, he wouldn't have had a vote in the referendum.

yes exactly, massive impact but no vote.  Some may say I don't deserve one but I am a British passport holder and I think I did.

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2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Exiting also had some factual basis. (No longer governed by EU laws, regain control of our own borders).

To try and make out we would know the future as a member of the EU but not as a sovereign state is pie in the sky.

But for the sake of this debate, assuming the facts are known, please advise the following for 10 years time, had we remained in the EU.

1 - What new countries will have joined the EU?

2 - What stage would a proposed European army be at?

3 - What financial state will the EU be in?

4 - How many countries will have to have been bailed out of a financial crisis?

No idea about 3 and 4.

1 - Zero with a British veto

2- no stage with a British veto

 

It is somewhat revealing that days after a referendum, during which Johnson used the entry of Turkey as a scaremongering tactic, he was at the EU making the case FOR Turkey joining the EU.

I suppose the fault lies with the EU here, assuming that those taking part in vital negotiations and discussions would at least take them seriously. (see also Nigel Farage and the fisheries committee)

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1 hour ago, Spanish said:

jeez thanks for that.  taking a debate onto a secondary subject is actually a politicians way of avoiding a debate.  

If you can't understand how that was a relevant point and in no way trying to change the topic then that's your problem....but i think you do ?

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1 hour ago, SchtivePesley said:

Have you or anyone else looked at the DiEM25 project? It aims for a new people-led truly democratic European project by 2025

https://diem25.org/manifesto-short-version/

How realistic they are being is another matter, but the manifesto is the first thing I've read that feels like it could actually appeal to both Leave and Remain voters, so am interested to hear others views on that

 

No, I hadn't heard of that. Thanks

This bit hits the nail, for me:

"Europe’s pitiful reaction to its banking and debt crises, to the refugee crisis, to the need for a coherent foreign, migration and anti-terrorism policy, are all examples of what happens when solidarity loses its meaning.

Two dreadful options dominate:

1. Retreat into the cocoon of our nation-states

2. Or surrender to the Brussels democracy-free zone"

 

 

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3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

- What stage would a proposed European army be at?

Sweet Child of Mine, I wish people would stop obsessing about this ...

1. We have had a 'European army for ages … its called NATO, with added US/Canadians … to stop that Big 'Ol Brown Bear a-rootin' through the backyard.

2. The rest of the EU has virtually decided not to have armed forces so any merger is a good thing. The Dutch bring the tyres, the Germans bring the spark plugs ….

3. If some kind of Franco-German invasion force landed at Ramsgate and started acting the Mr. Charlie Big-Trousers, trust me  … our Army would ride it like a seaside donkey.

 

 

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