Anyone else had enough?

[Chris_Martin]

39 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

I don't bother with XG either. I watch games. I see what I see. Nowhere have I suggested it's all sweetness and light. We do have issues in that we aren't playing to player strengths, yet despite that we keep having 6 to 8 decent cracks at goal each game, forcing their keeper to earn his corn. Sibs isn't a winger. Collo needs to stay central most of the time. I'd play 2 up front, strikers hunt in pairs don't they? So far this season we've seen 352, 532, 4231, 433, 442 at various points in games.  Are we going to press and harry or fall back and wait. Bird came on at HT in the 2 in the 4231 formation at Cheltenham and was ripping them a new one. 20 minutes later we bring Conor H on, he moves to Bird's place in the 2, Bird moves to the #10 position and watches the ball flying over his head for much of the rest of the game. Not much wrong with the players we have, it's how they're being played. 

I'd play just the 1 DM. Smith or Hourihane on current form. An attacking 5 in front of the 1 DM. Give them the freedom to be fluid in their positioning. The only instruction being not to make it a 415 leaving us exposed when we lose possession. 

With regard to the keepers, it's more that when JW makes a good save it's, well... a good save. When the opposition keeper makes a good save, it's because all our players are crap. Why does one and the same situation at opposite ends of the pitch result in a totally different viewpoint? That is something I don't get.

if its such a useless stat, why do most teams use it in their analysis? 

[Chris_Martin]

44 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

I don't bother with XG either. I watch games. I see what I see. Nowhere have I suggested it's all sweetness and light. We do have issues in that we aren't playing to player strengths, yet despite that we keep having 6 to 8 decent cracks at goal each game, forcing their keeper to earn his corn. Sibs isn't a winger. Collo needs to stay central most of the time. I'd play 2 up front, strikers hunt in pairs don't they? So far this season we've seen 352, 532, 4231, 433, 442 at various points in games.  Are we going to press and harry or fall back and wait. Bird came on at HT in the 2 in the 4231 formation at Cheltenham and was ripping them a new one. 20 minutes later we bring Conor H on, he moves to Bird's place in the 2, Bird moves to the #10 position and watches the ball flying over his head for much of the rest of the game. Not much wrong with the players we have, it's how they're being played. 

I'd play just the 1 DM. Smith or Hourihane on current form. An attacking 5 in front of the 1 DM. Give them the freedom to be fluid in their positioning. The only instruction being not to make it a 415 leaving us exposed when we lose possession. 

With regard to the keepers, it's more that when JW makes a good save it's, well... a good save. When the opposition keeper makes a good save, it's because all our players are crap. Why does one and the same situation at opposite ends of the pitch result in a totally different viewpoint? That is something I don't get.

agree

[Loughborough Ram]

Initially when Warne was suggested I doubted that he was an upgrade on Rosenior, but so many people on here said I was bonkers I thought, "well I must be". So I felt it was reasonable to get behind him as he seemed a nice bloke, and his track record suggested, that I probably was bonkers.

I've always thought that a managers style is dictated by the players at his disposal so I wasn't worried by his perceived style, as it was shaped during his time at a 'small' club, with a very modest budget. I thought,  give him time and resources and he may well change his ethos organically.

During last season there were a few difficult days but far more positive ones, offering signs that, .given a fair opportunity by referees, and some reasonable fortune with injuries, we could easily have been in contention through the play offs.

Going into the summer I thought that with some reasonable recruitment and a good pre season, we would have a great opportunity to fight for an automatic promotion spot, and certainly, recruitment was possibly better than I expected. We bought in players that barely anybody on here questioned, and the pre season games suggested that Warne finally had his team, his system and his philosophy. 

We started the season with more than our fair share of bad luck on the injury side, but even taking that into consideration our start has been disappointing to say the least, so I'm afraid that I've crossed to the dark side, because I think that we have passed the point of no return, where I don't think he can turn this around. Results are faltering, supporters are showing their displeasure at the games and players are being drawn into direct arguments with the fans.

I expected 2 things when Warne came in, a super fit squad, that pressed all over the field, and a clear message to the players of what is expected of them individually and as a team. 12 months into the job and I don't think we have either of those currently, so you have to ask, if not after 12 months then when?

I wouldn't stand chanting outside the ground for him to go, because i actually still think hes a decent bloke, but I think that if we can afford it we have to take plunge. If we we don't the financial implications could be far greater than taking a hit now.

[DCFC Kicks]

1 hour ago, MadAmster said:

 

I'd play just the 1 DM. Smith or Hourihane on current form. An attacking 5 in front of the 1 DM. Give them the freedom to be fluid in their positioning. The only instruction being not to make it a 415 leaving us exposed when we lose possession. 

Wouldn’t you rather play Fornah in the DM and just tell him to sit back and only defend? I feel like we’re wasting Hourihanes long shot ability, and Bird could be freed more as well. But both Bird and Hourihane have a bit of defensive qualities as well if needed.

[lrm14]

1 hour ago, Archied said:

Maybe they don’t do xg because they are the most subjective load of old guff recently invented,, even shots and shots on target can often be not the best reflection of a game you’ve watched with your own eyes 🤷🏻‍♂️

my eyes and the undeniable stat ( points gained ) tell me warne is under big pressure now and only wins and moving up the table can save his butt, it is a big move from Rotherham to derby and he is floundering a bit , you can see it in his interviews 

Ah yes, the statistical metric xG is subjective yet your 'eyes' and opinion on football are not. That makes perfect sense.

Edited October 23, 2023 by lrm14

[Walkley Ram]

31 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

i can remember a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty...

How about the 3 games in a row we went without a shot on target from open play?

[MadAmster]

2 hours ago, sage said:

So 4132

Could you give an example of what this would look like? Naming players

back 5 as in the past couple of games. 

The 1? Not Fornah based on the past 2 games. As he's Captain, probably Hourihane.

The 3? NML Bird Barks

The 2? One of Waggy/Wash/Collo with Sibs

The 3 plus Sibs can rotate among themselves using their heads and good communication to switch roles at sensible points in the play. 

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, Kokosnuss said:

 

 

This depends on what you call a decent crack at goal.

We most certainly are not creating 6 to 8 opportunities a game where (more often than not) you'd back a player to score. Chances where you say "I can't believe he missed that!" and every replay makes it look easier and easier to have scored. There are maybe 1-3 of those in a match against a team sitting back, 3-5 against teams willing to come onto us.

We're not regularly getting the ball 20-25 yards from goal and in a central position  and testing the keeper from range (we avoid it). We're not putting players through 1 on 1 with the keeper. Most often it's a ball lifted into the box for a player to adjust their body and hit first time on a volley / half volley (while needing to get it past defenders) or a cross for a player (usually marked) to head in. 

The chances we concede are usually easier chances to score than the chances we create, whether the opposition end up hitting it on target / drawing a save or not. Of the 2 standout saves in the last match, Wildsmith's was more difficult to make. Bird's attempt to put the ball in from the byline wide of goal goal goes down as a shot on target, but it wasn't 'a decent crack'.

...but that's where XG comes in? You've posted the number of shots we had on target and the saves the keeper made as proof that we should have scored, but they had better opportunities to score than us in which they didn't hit the target. Nobody should rely on it totally without seeing the evidence before their eyes but it can't be dismissed outright.

I'm also not sure why people would say that we're missing chances because our players are crap, not giving the opposition keeper their due, but I can understand why they're giving full credit to Wildsmith for his.

 

1st half, a very good header from Nelson and 2 shots from Barks, all of which were met with good saves. Enough detail for you? There's more but I'm not going to go into every single one, every single game.

With regard to your last sentence, that's what I just don't get. How they can praise JW yet it's our players' fault when the oppo keeper does similar. They can't have it both ways....

[Chris_Martin]

4 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

back 5 as in the past couple of games. 

The 1? Not Fornah based on the past 2 games. As he's Captain, probably Hourihane.

The 3? NML Bird Barks

The 2? One of Waggy/Wash/Collo with Sibs

The 3 plus Sibs can rotate among themselves using their heads and good communication to switch roles at sensible points in the play. 

but you criticesed hourihane for not being good enough defensively and now want to play him as a lone DM...

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

i can remember a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty...

... and I can remember a few where we've had a lot. Snap.

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

if its such a useless stat, why do most teams use it in their analysis? 

Could be an age thing. If I've understood XG correctly, then a run from halfway ending in a 25 yard blockbuster that the keeper tips over the bar doesn't count. To me it should.

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, DCFC Kicks said:

Wouldn’t you rather play Fornah in the DM and just tell him to sit back and only defend? I feel like we’re wasting Hourihanes long shot ability, and Bird could be freed more as well. But both Bird and Hourihane have a bit of defensive qualities as well if needed.

Based on the last 2 games Fornah has been off it, hence my reticence to use him.

[Chris_Martin]

5 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

... and I can remember a few where we've had a lot. Snap.

go on then, what were those

[MadAmster]

3 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

but you criticesed hourihane for not being good enough defensively and now want to play him as a lone DM...

I was asked for an example of the line up. I gave one. On current form, my choice would be Smith but, as I said in the post, the Captaincy will see CH get the nod. Sorry I didn't add PW will..... 

 

[Chris_Martin]

4 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Could be an age thing. If I've understood XG correctly, then a run from halfway ending in a 25 yard blockbuster that the keeper tips over the bar doesn't count. To me it should.

???

yes that would count towards xg

[MadAmster]

Just now, Chris_Martin said:

go on then, what were those

Posh, 5, 4 of which went in

Burton 5, 3 went in

Shrews 6

Cheltenham 8

Blackpool 5, 3 of which went in

 

Now, other than Bolton where did we have just a penalty on target, seeing that you can remember "a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty..."?

 

[Archied]

2 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

Ahhh now I get it ,,, your Forrest Gump,,,,,,, but momma the xg says derrrrrr

[MadAmster]

7 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

???

yes that would count towards xg

In that case I haven't understood XG correctly. How exactly is it calculated? A cursory look on internet seems to point towards there being many different models in use. Does this mean that using one model gives you a different figure than using another model would? 

Do they feed video into a computer that decides on the XG or is it a human being that decides? 

As someone who worked in IT for 30 years and taught it for 13 years at schools and colleges as well as giving courses in house at companies I have a healthy distrust of algorithms/models and how they are used.

It's like with surveys. Tell the survey company you want from the survey and they will construct the questions to ensure you get that result.

[Archied]

1 hour ago, Loughborough Ram said:

Initially when Warne was suggested I doubted that he was an upgrade on Rosenior, but so many people on here said I was bonkers I thought, "well I must be". So I felt it was reasonable to get behind him as he seemed a nice bloke, and his track record suggested, that I probably was bonkers.

I've always thought that a managers style is dictated by the players at his disposal so I wasn't worried by his perceived style, as it was shaped during his time at a 'small' club, with a very modest budget. I thought,  give him time and resources and he may well change his ethos organically.

During last season there were a few difficult days but far more positive ones, offering signs that, .given a fair opportunity by referees, and some reasonable fortune with injuries, we could easily have been in contention through the play offs.

Going into the summer I thought that with some reasonable recruitment and a good pre season, we would have a great opportunity to fight for an automatic promotion spot, and certainly, recruitment was possibly better than I expected. We bought in players that barely anybody on here questioned, and the pre season games suggested that Warne finally had his team, his system and his philosophy. 

We started the season with more than our fair share of bad luck on the injury side, but even taking that into consideration our start has been disappointing to say the least, so I'm afraid that I've crossed to the dark side, because I think that we have passed the point of no return, where I don't think he can turn this around. Results are faltering, supporters are showing their displeasure at the games and players are being drawn into direct arguments with the fans.

I expected 2 things when Warne came in, a super fit squad, that pressed all over the field, and a clear message to the players of what is expected of them individually and as a team. 12 months into the job and I don't think we have either of those currently, so you have to ask, if not after 12 months then when?

I wouldn't stand chanting outside the ground for him to go, because i actually still think hes a decent bloke, but I think that if we can afford it we have to take plunge. If we we don't the financial implications could be far greater than taking a hit now.

Agree and or see most of your take on where we are apart from ive not moved to the dark side just yet though as stated before I wouldn’t be surprised or too disappointed to see warne replaced , I do worry about who we replace him with and some of the suggestions on here are beyond me in terms of being a worse long or midterm fit and managers those calling for change suggest are ones they would have screamed blue murder about appointing before 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Archied]

1 hour ago, lrm14 said:

Ah yes, the statistical metric xG is subjective yet your 'eyes' and opinion on football are not. That makes perfect sense.

I’m not selling my viewed experience as evidence to make others believe I know better than them and I don’t need somebody else’s subjective view on the chances I’ve seen with my own eyes to tell me how I should rate them😂