Gotta love Extinction Rebellion

[Archied]

20 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

https://twitter.com/thatbloodyMikey/status/1681655153403867136

Nope ,, seen it like that in turkey before

[Carl Sagan]

The bizarre error of logic of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil and the other cultists is to imagine what we do in the UK can make any difference at all. For instance, coal power generation (the dirtiest carbon fuel) is 2% in the UK and will be fully phased out next year. By contrast, it's around 35% in Germany and projected to rise to 40% there by the end of the decade. UK emissions, because we have decarbonized so very successfully, are minuscule.

Really, the only countries that will make a difference to the global climate are America, China and India. But with a possible second tier of nations of Russia, Germany, Japan and I think Iran.

Anyone in Europe who wants to protest should hop on a train to Germany and chain themselves to German coal mines. Doing it here just exposes these people as professional protesters in search of a cause, who don't actually care what that cause is so long as it's antiestablishment.

[Archied]

42 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

The bizarre error of logic of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil and the other cultists is to imagine what we do in the UK can make any difference at all. For instance, coal power generation (the dirtiest carbon fuel) is 2% in the UK and will be fully phased out next year. By contrast, it's around 35% in Germany and projected to rise to 40% there by the end of the decade. UK emissions, because we have decarbonized so very successfully, are minuscule.

Really, the only countries that will make a difference to the global climate are America, China and India. But with a possible second tier of nations of Russia, Germany, Japan and I think Iran.

Anyone in Europe who wants to protest should hop on a train to Germany and chain themselves to German coal mines. Doing it here just exposes these people as professional protesters in search of a cause, who don't actually care what that cause is so long as it's antiestablishment.

Yep , who has the spare time and money to be out slow walking on roads round london of a Monday morning , heard one woman on the radio speaking on behalf of them the other day berate the presenter for stating he’s not fully up on facts and figures but happy to give air to they’re opinions then within 2 mins have no answer to questions posed as she’s just a mother of 2 and that’s the preserve of climatologists 😂, she stated her children would be fighting others children for food in they’re life times , like the extinction reb bloke hallam painting pictures of women being raped in they’re homes as society breaks down , it’s total utter hysterical garbage fear porn that some just love to wallow in , by all means have aims of changing to a cleaners better more sustainable world and hey I’m on board but this clap trap with blood red weather maps , floods that you can see just the same as and worse hundreds of years ago ect ect ect I have no time for and actually feel sorry for people who live in this kind of cleverly pushed and self induced anxiety 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited July 19, 2023 by Archied

[Highgate]

6 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

The bizarre error of logic of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil and the other cultists is to imagine what we do in the UK can make any difference at all. For instance, coal power generation (the dirtiest carbon fuel) is 2% in the UK and will be fully phased out next year. By contrast, it's around 35% in Germany and projected to rise to 40% there by the end of the decade. UK emissions, because we have decarbonized so very successfully, are minuscule.

Really, the only countries that will make a difference to the global climate are America, China and India. But with a possible second tier of nations of Russia, Germany, Japan and I think Iran.

Anyone in Europe who wants to protest should hop on a train to Germany and chain themselves to German coal mines. Doing it here just exposes these people as professional protesters in search of a cause, who don't actually care what that cause is so long as it's antiestablishment.

That's a particularly jaundiced and unhelpful take if you ask me. Ironically the actual Carl Sagan was on of the original climate change campaigners. 

Every country needs to concentrate on itself first when tackling climate change, so it's perfectly reasonable for citizens of the UK to protest in their country or target their own elected representatives.  We can also make it clear that we expect the politicians, of our respective countries, to put pressure on other countries to meet climate change standards at the relevant international gatherings such as COP.  

The UK's carbon footprint is not as low as some people might believe.  Yes, the GHG emissions from the UK's territory have dropped steadily over the years as coal was replaced by gas, manufacturing largely moved abroad and some renewables came online.  That's all true, but if you look at the carbon footprint of the products that are consumed in the UK, rather than the emissions actually produced on the landmass itself, then the picture is a far less rosy one.  Also the UK classifies much of it's imported biomass as carbon neutral.  In reality it's anything but, however the trick helps make the UK's carbon footprint look lower than it is in reality.  Although, I guess, other countries may be using similar dodgy accounting practices to massage their own CO2 figures. 

I think many climate protests can actually be counter productive and I agree with some of the criticism levelled at them, but I don't believe that climate protests are in principle a mistake, they just need to be properly targeted.  And I wouldn't presume to know the intentions of all those protesters concerned. Perhaps some of them are professional protesters, but it's seems highly likely that a great many of them are motivated principally by the obvious climate crisis that is unfolding all around us.  

As for other countries, let them worry about themselves internally, and our governments can put pressure on them (or incentivise them) internationally. Now that China has recorded at temperature of 52.2 C, I think that might encourage it to redouble it's efforts to hasten it's conversion to renewables. This recurring and recalcitrant notion that we shouldn't bother doing anything because bigger countries aren't doing enough, is a hopeless cop out in my opinion and a complete abdication of our own responsibilities. 

 

[Stive Pesley]

9 minutes ago, Highgate said:

That's a particularly jaundiced and unhelpful take if you ask me

Agreed

And totally illogical for someone who claims to be some sort of scientist

Pressure the UK government to get our own house in order, and then our government  can quite rightly pressure fellow governments to follow suit. That's the only logical path

Every other path leads to absolutely nothing meaningful happening to halt man-made climate change

Unless we're literally just resigned to it being an unsolveable problem and therefore we should just enjoy the warm weather while we can and welcome the extinction of the human race as a blessed relief?

[PistoldPete]

50 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Agreed

And totally illogical for someone who claims to be some sort of scientist

Pressure the UK government to get our own house in order, and then our government  can quite rightly pressure fellow governments to follow suit. That's the only logical path

Every other path leads to absolutely nothing meaningful happening to halt man-made climate change

Unless we're literally just resigned to it being an unsolveable problem and therefore we should just enjoy the warm weather while we can and welcome the extinction of the human race as a blessed relief?

How many scientists really believe the extinction of the human race is a likely outcome of manmade climate change? The minority I believe. Only fringe groups like ER and Just Stop Oil believe that really. 

[Archied]

45 minutes ago, Highgate said:

That's a particularly jaundiced and unhelpful take if you ask me. Ironically the actual Carl Sagan was on of the original climate change campaigners. 

Every country needs to concentrate on itself first when tackling climate change, so it's perfectly reasonable for citizens of the UK to protest in their country or target their own elected representatives.  We can also make it clear that we expect the politicians, of our respective countries, to put pressure on other countries to meet climate change standards at the relevant international gatherings such as COP.  

The UK's carbon footprint is not as low as some people might believe.  Yes, the GHG emissions from the UK's territory have dropped steadily over the years as coal was replaced by gas, manufacturing largely moved abroad and some renewables came online.  That's all true, but if you look at the carbon footprint of the products that are consumed in the UK, rather than the emissions actually produced on the landmass itself, then the picture is a far less rosy one.  Also the UK classifies much of it's imported biomass as carbon neutral.  In reality it's anything but, however the trick helps make the UK's carbon footprint look lower than it is in reality.  Although, I guess, other countries may be using similar dodgy accounting practices to massage their own CO2 figures. 

I think many climate protests can actually be counter productive and I agree with some of the criticism levelled at them, but I don't believe that climate protests are in principle a mistake, they just need to be properly targeted.  And I wouldn't presume to know the intentions of all those protesters concerned. Perhaps some of them are professional protesters, but it's seems highly likely that a great many of them are motivated principally by the obvious climate crisis that is unfolding all around us.  

As for other countries, let them worry about themselves internally, and our governments can put pressure on them (or incentivise them) internationally. Now that China has recorded at temperature of 52.2 C, I think that might encourage it to redouble it's efforts to hasten it's conversion to renewables. This recurring and recalcitrant notion that we shouldn't bother doing anything because bigger countries aren't doing enough, is a hopeless cop out in my opinion and a complete abdication of our own responsibilities. 

 

You are so right with a lot of your post in terms counting carbon footprint numbers even to the extent of fraud where we import fuels and goods at a higher carbon cost and pretend it’s us being right on it , it’s a joke and let’s be honest we see time and time again with the protesters preaching and disrupting others live, soo anxious and fear filled yet living the same as every bugger else , driving fossil fuel cars , jetting off round the world , using oil based products ect ect ect and as I say time and time again the answer given to them and swallowed by them is more more more take make throw away ,

climate CRISIS,,, nope our biggest threat is a growth growth growth , consume consume consume crisis and it’s been with us for years , the better we get at building cars that will run for hundreds of thousands of miles on cleaner and cleaner fossil fuels and not rust to nothing in 5 years the more the money people need to put a stop to that kind of thing , same with gas boilers v heat pumps , every person in the building trade knows the pushing of heat pumps is a joke ,

there is no climate CRISIS,, there is a VITAL need to change the world to authentic green policies that surfaced 35 years ago but there’s no way that’s going to be allowed to happen , the gravy train / hamster wheel model dies with that kind of sensible thinking 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Highgate]

21 minutes ago, Archied said:

You are so right with a lot of your post in terms counting carbon footprint numbers even to the extent of fraud where we import fuels and goods at a higher carbon cost and pretend it’s us being right on it , it’s a joke and let’s be honest we see time and time again with the protesters preaching and disrupting others live, soo anxious and fear filled yet living the same as every bugger else , driving fossil fuel cars , jetting off round the world , using oil based products ect ect ect and as I say time and time again the answer given to them and swallowed by them is more more more take make throw away ,

climate CRISIS,,, nope our biggest threat is a growth growth growth , consume consume consume crisis and it’s been with us for years , the better we get at building cars that will run for hundreds of thousands of miles on cleaner and cleaner fossil fuels and not rust to nothing in 5 years the more the money people need to put a stop to that kind of thing , same with gas boilers v heat pumps , every person in the building trade knows the pushing of heat pumps is a joke ,

there is no climate CRISIS,, there is a VITAL need to change the world to authentic green policies that surfaced 35 years ago but there’s no way that’s going to be allowed to happen , the gravy train / hamster wheel model dies with that kind of sensible thinking 🤷🏻‍♂️

Well we've disagreed about whether there is a climate crisis or not several times now.  I'm firmly in the camp that think there is, you obviously disagree. That's fair enough

I do agree with you that our constant need to increase consumption levels and the desire for perennial economic growth has caused a lot of the problems that we see today.  Raising living standards around the world doesn't have to mean increased consumption of natural resources everywhere in my opinion, those two things can be decoupled. 

[Archied]

4 minutes ago, Highgate said:

Well we've disagreed about whether there is a climate crisis or not several times now.  I'm firmly in the camp that think there is, you obviously disagree. That's fair enough

I do agree with you that our constant need to increase consumption levels and the desire for perennial economic growth has caused a lot of the problems that we see today.  Raising living standards around the world doesn't have to mean increased consumption of natural resources everywhere in my opinion, those two things can be decoupled. 

Yep we do disagree on climate CRISIS but we obviously agree or at least have an understanding of where the other is coming from🤷‍♂️

for me the level of all this I very much a ,,, hey look over there tactic to keep the masses divided whilst power ,money, privilege, and quality of life passes to the few having more and the more having less,, it’s just what I see , in the words of a great tune , same as it ever was🤷‍♂️

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

How many scientists really believe the extinction of the human race is a likely outcome of manmade climate change? The minority I believe. 

You're on a roll tonight, quoting "facts" that are so obviously falsifiable by google

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change

 

[PistoldPete]

39 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

You're on a roll tonight, quoting "facts" that are so obviously falsifiable by google

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change

 

And the scientific consensus is...according to wiki...

 

"The current scientific consensus is that:

Earth's climate has warmed significantly since the late 1800s.[a]

Human activities (primarily greenhouse gas emissions) are the primary cause.

Continuing emissions will increase the likelihood and severity of global effects.

People and nations can act individually and collectively to slow the pace of global warming, while also preparing for unavoidable climate change and its consequences."

Where does it say that the scientific consensus is that the human race will become extinct as a result? 

 

 

 

 

[Comrade 86]

On 19/07/2023 at 10:44, Anon said:

Yes, it's never been hot in the northern hemisphere in the summer ever before. Why don't you glue yourself to something?

Awww, do you feel better now petal, having got that off your chest?

The glue gag is hilarious by the way. Did you come up with that by yourself? Did it take long?

 

[Archied]

Quick update , Spain is cloudy and warm ish today 

[Ghost of Clough]

Some alarming graphs:

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some alarming graphs:

Alarming indeed, it makes you wonder what it will actually take before some people will stop peddling the 'natural variability' or 'it's been hot before', nonsense. 

One of the most alarming predictions of all is that the Arctic may become ice free in summer during the 2030s. Seems to be heading in that direction unfortunately.

[Carl Sagan]

On 19/07/2023 at 17:13, Highgate said:

That's a particularly jaundiced and unhelpful take if you ask me. Ironically the actual Carl Sagan was on of the original climate change campaigners. 

Every country needs to concentrate on itself first when tackling climate change, so it's perfectly reasonable for citizens of the UK to protest in their country or target their own elected representatives.  We can also make it clear that we expect the politicians, of our respective countries, to put pressure on other countries to meet climate change standards at the relevant international gatherings such as COP.  

The UK's carbon footprint is not as low as some people might believe.  Yes, the GHG emissions from the UK's territory have dropped steadily over the years as coal was replaced by gas, manufacturing largely moved abroad and some renewables came online.  That's all true, but if you look at the carbon footprint of the products that are consumed in the UK, rather than the emissions actually produced on the landmass itself, then the picture is a far less rosy one.  Also the UK classifies much of it's imported biomass as carbon neutral.  In reality it's anything but, however the trick helps make the UK's carbon footprint look lower than it is in reality.  Although, I guess, other countries may be using similar dodgy accounting practices to massage their own CO2 figures. 

I think many climate protests can actually be counter productive and I agree with some of the criticism levelled at them, but I don't believe that climate protests are in principle a mistake, they just need to be properly targeted.  And I wouldn't presume to know the intentions of all those protesters concerned. Perhaps some of them are professional protesters, but it's seems highly likely that a great many of them are motivated principally by the obvious climate crisis that is unfolding all around us.  

As for other countries, let them worry about themselves internally, and our governments can put pressure on them (or incentivise them) internationally. Now that China has recorded at temperature of 52.2 C, I think that might encourage it to redouble it's efforts to hasten it's conversion to renewables. This recurring and recalcitrant notion that we shouldn't bother doing anything because bigger countries aren't doing enough, is a hopeless cop out in my opinion and a complete abdication of our own responsibilities. 

I understand what you say, but you have ignored the logic that nothing we do in the UK will have any impact on the global picture. 

And I disagree that the UK picture doesn't remain rosy when you add in outsourced manufacturing. Here is the data and the fantastic progress we have made: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR#consumption-based-accounting-how-do-emissions-compare-when-we-adjust-for-trade

[Archied]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Some alarming graphs:

Yep alarming graphs, charts and models are the go to fear tactic , remember covid , amazing the panic you can create with a few crayons and selected juggled numbers 🤷🏻‍♂️, 

if it’s some people’s thing then great ,let them crack on , personally I just don’t buy into the constant fear and doom we are all going to die ,we’re going to be extinct stuff , it’s no way to live , no wonder mental health , stress , unhappiness and suicide rates are through the roof🤷🏻‍♂️

im happy to take any stick for posting an opposing view to this stuff , yes we have issues that would be right to work at improving but jeez  has everything got to be a CRISIS of epic proportions aimed at overwhelming people and stopping the living fairly happy lives 

[Ghost of Clough]

2 hours ago, Highgate said:

Alarming indeed, it makes you wonder what it will actually take before some people will stop peddling the 'natural variability' or 'it's been hot before', nonsense. 

One of the most alarming predictions of all is that the Arctic may become ice free in summer during the 2030s. Seems to be heading in that direction unfortunately.

The natural variation  is still there, and has played a big part in the change in global climate. As you can see from this graph, there's a periodic increase in CO2 on average every 100k years, so you could argue we were about due for another sharp increase. This has a clear impact on global temperature and sea level as a result.

The general argument I see is along the lines if, since there's a natural variation, it doesn't matter what we do, it'll still happen and naturally reset.

The scary part you can see in this graph is the CO2 levels continuing to increase, with us now reaching a variation double that of anything seen in over 400k years - a period which stretches back further than humans on earth.

It really is a "what next scenario". CO2 levels currently match those from 3 million years ago, with only a small increase required to match levels from 15 million years ago 

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The natural variation  is still there, and has played a big part in the change in global climate. As you can see from this graph, there's a periodic increase in CO2 on average every 100k years, so you could argue we were about due for another sharp increase. This has a clear impact on global temperature and sea level as a result.

The general argument I see is along the lines if, since there's a natural variation, it doesn't matter what we do, it'll still happen and naturally reset.

The scary part you can see in this graph is the CO2 levels continuing to increase, with us now reaching a variation double that of anything seen in over 400k years - a period which stretches back further than humans on earth.

It really is a "what next scenario". CO2 levels currently match those from 3 million years ago, with only a small increase required to match levels from 15 million years ago 

Yes, of course natural variations are present and always will be. My point is that their presence shouldn't be used to explain away our current predominantly human induced global warming, and yet they frequently are. 

Overlapping natural cycles influence our climate, over short and long scales. For example the current El-Nino warming episode will be partially responsible for 2023 being the record breaking year that it's going to be. However, it's flip side La Nina, which generally cools the atmosphere, and which ended in 2022 wasn't able to prevent 2021 and 2022 from also being exceptionally warm. These short-term factors, along with all the other longer natural cycles will continue to to play their part, but they will be overwhelmed by anthropogenic global warming. The 100k cycles are a very broad lens to be looking at climate changes and those gradual cycles are likely to have had minimal impact over the last few decades. The startling reality is, current carbon dioxide levels are increasing at a rate more than 100 times faster than anything seen in the last 800,000 years. So basically our recent global warming is largely a human created phenomenon.

[Highgate]

2 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I understand what you say, but you have ignored the logic that nothing we do in the UK will have any impact on the global picture. 

And I disagree that the UK picture doesn't remain rosy when you add in outsourced manufacturing. Here is the data and the fantastic progress we have made: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR#consumption-based-accounting-how-do-emissions-compare-when-we-adjust-for-trade

I don't think I'm ignoring the logic, it's just I don't really think that it's logic at all. If we followed your reasoning then all countries, bar the 7 largest emitters, may as well do nothing until the major players gave gone green. That's ignoring nearly 40% of global CO2 emissions, more if you calculate by consumption. 

Why? What possible benefit would there be in that strategy? Especially when you consider all the other health, political and economic benefits there are for countries to go green. Why not just get everyone to do their bit? 

The UK's population is less than 1% of the world's population, a medium sized country and therefore relatively insignificant on a global scale. Of course the international impact of the UK further reducing it's GHG emissions will be small on the world stage (small  but not zero as you imply), that's just a given, nobody would reasonably expect anything different. But where does does the illogical notion come from that because the UK's positive actions would only have a minimal impact that it therefore may as well do nothing at all? I can't get my head around that assertion. Is it some sort of Imperial Hangover Syndrome, because the UK's impact is now relatively minor, when faced with a worldwide climate crisis, it may as well just sit back and do nothing at all? Apologies if that is wide of the mark, but I just find it bizarre that anyone would suggest the 'may as well do nothing' viewpoint at this stage.

As for your other point, it depends on your definition of rosy I suppose. Progress has been made certainly, although not as much as often claimed. A lot more remains to be done, and their remain please of avenues for well targeted effective protest for those who care enough to undertake it.