The Ukraine War

[GboroRam]

It's a really interesting juxtaposition, the mentality of people from east and west. It feels like the distrust is almost equal. Without living in that culture it's impossible to fully see how the other group think. 

Western democracy is heralded as something to aspire to, yet I see plenty of problems caused by it. I still see it as a "better" system than Russia adopted, but if I'd lived 50 years in Russia/USSR I can imagine that I might have a different opinion. 

I can't accept Russian imperialism without feeling discomfort for the rights of the Ukrainian people. But I also can feel sympathy for the culturally Russian areas of Ukraine that feel more closely with the Russian state. 

I don't know what the best course of action is, but appeasement feels like a mistake. In the name of reducing casualties? Why did we not accept the Taliban in Afghanistan, that would have saved lives? 

I know the west is highly hypocritical in the way it deals with intervention into foreign affairs, and there's plenty of opposition amongst the people to invasions such as Iraq. I also see the double standards with regards to self determination for states when we can deny some groups autonomy but arm the population of others to defend theirs. It's not a defense to the actions of Russia to point out what the US have done in the past. 8

And the EU looks more and more appealing to me, as a solid safety net against Russian imperialism. Why wouldn't Ukraine apply now? Russia can't use the threat of invasion to prevent it. 

[BaaLocks]

8 hours ago, Cisse said:

There has never been a democracy in Russia or Soviet Union.

Excellent point, and you are 100% right in what you say. Yet, at least in modern Russia, there is no large scale clamouring for it - the people are happy to live under the trade in the same way they are in most of China.

There also hasn't been in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan yet Americans and the West push for it under the flag of 'manifest destiny'. Our belief that we have the say on how other countries rule themselves is at the heart of almost all conflicts in the last 50 years.

[Bob The Badger]

9 hours ago, Alpha said:

He's not killing for personal gain/beliefs. 

He's doing it for the Soviet Union (I know)

He's doing it for Russian security against NATO expansion and Ukraine is key strategically (again, I know)

He's doing it to free Donetsk and Luhansk

He's doing it to aid Crimea

Are you just presuming all that?

It seems to make sense to me, but I'm no expert.

I've heard a bunch of interviewed over the last few days though and they all seem to agree on two main factors, that a NFZ would lead to massive escalation and none of them have a clue what is driving Putin, or what his end game is.

 

 

[BaaLocks]

10 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

So what you’re saying is, the best option is for the west to adopt the most humane approach, end sanctions and negotiate a deal, at the expense no doubt of Ukraines sovereignty and right of self determination, because there is no way Russia will back down and avoid further blood shed or suffering for their own citizens as a result of the sanctions?

Is there not a fourth option whereby Ukraine reluctantly surrenders, in order to avoid further deaths but the sanctions remain in force unless Russia withdraws? I know from your earlier post that you doubt the sanctions would have sufficient impact to cause the Russians to withdraw but I really can’t imagine how long their reserves (those they’ll actually able to access and utilise) will be able to prop up the economy.

Yeah, Option Four could look like that I guess - I'm with @GboroRam that this isn't about appeasement, but Ukraine cannot win, or even withstand attack, without huge losses and the truly ridiculous suggestions of the likes of Liz Truss, plus some of the actions of Ukranian border police, does suggest there is a belief that the noblest thing you can do is die in battle. And, btw, we've not even touched the prospect of significant civilian casualties - Russians telling people in Kyiv they have 48 hours to get out, good luck and God's speed to those who can.

Sanctions will not affect much at all, this is a country that lived behind a curtain for 70 years and allowed itself to literally fall apart rather than ask for aid (until the Armenia earthquake). Cuba, Syria and other countries show that as well - they make for a less pleasant quality of life for most citizens but the seldom / never (maybe South Africa) result in change.

[BaaLocks]

8 hours ago, ramit said:

The US president can't string two sentences together and this is his VP.

 

And she's completely contradicted US foreign policy in four or five sentences.

[BaaLocks]

7 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Russia doesn’t need Ukraine. It doesn’t. But Putin wants Ukraine.

You are evil if you are content to kill innocent people to get what you want. I’m sorry but I just can’t see it any other way.

Invading Ukraine won’t make the average Russian better. The current sanctions are leaving them worse.

Throw in dictatorship, state media propaganda, outright lies and a lack of democracy. Putin needs putting down.

Just as for your questions, I guess I’m a fan of democracy and it should have been left up to the people of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to decide.

Russia does need Ukraine, and need expansion to justify the colossal spend they have invested in their military. Buying tanks to rust in a warehouse is not a good economic decision. Invading Ukraine will make the average Russian better, their reserves and capacity in industry and agriculture are of great benefit to Russia - plus they covet access to the Black Sea for naval and merchant reasons.

I get the bit on killing your opponents and favouring democracy but if we put down every leader in the world based on that we'd never stop (and never win). Sadly, there are leaders in many other countries that are the equal or worse of Putin and, up to now, the best stance was to tolerate. His actions over the last few weeks have changed everything, and Putin isn't doing this for a ego trip, he is doing this because he needs Ukraine.

[Old Spalding Ram]

16 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Reports from some countries that Russian citizens are being abused and harrassed in the street, similar reports coming in from around the world.

I agree, interesting times.

I can assure you that I and hopefully millions of Ukrainians  who are being being terrorised, bombed, traumatised, separated from their families and are prepared to stand in front of Russian tanks to save their country from a madman whilst they’re burying their dead would hardly call these “interesting times”!

 

What an absolute crass remark!

[BaaLocks]

2 hours ago, GboroRam said:

Why did we not accept the Taliban in Afghanistan, that would have saved lives? 

Great post btw - and I'm not just saying that coz you're a mod so I might need a favour if I step out of line :-)

Because there was a belief that it was our lives that were being threatened. Had 9/11 never happened we would never have gone into Afghanistan. To date, the Russians have killed one poor lady who thought Novichok was perfume and one or two Russian opponents (Litvenenko / Berezhovsky) on British soil. There was the Dutch plane as well, but somehow we didn't seem really that worried about that one.

2 hours ago, GboroRam said:

And the EU looks more and more appealing to me, as a solid safety net against Russian imperialism. Why wouldn't Ukraine apply now? Russia can't use the threat of invasion to prevent it. 

It's an irrelevance now, if Russia wins they will make Ukraine agree to not enter as a part of any peace treaty. If Ukraine wins the first thing they will do is enter. Can't see too many Ukranians being fussed about duty free at the moment. Also, remember Ukraine entering the EU was a huge part of the Brexit debate - not sure all EU members would want to have a country with ill defined borders to Russia and Belarus as a member. Just check out the idiotic comments from that piece of boiled ham that is the MP in Lincolnshire yesterday, saying we've had enough of Eastern Europeans in our country.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BaaLocks

[BaaLocks]

1 minute ago, Old Spalding Ram said:

I can assure you that I and hopefully millions of Ukrainians  who are being being terrorised, bombed, traumatised, separated from their families and are prepared to stand in front of Russian tanks to save their country from a madman whilst they’re burying their dead would hardly call these “interesting times”!

 

What an absolute crass remark!

It was an echo of a previous post to reiterate a point made previously. I apologise if it upset you.

[Tamworthram]

46 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Yeah, Option Four could look like that I guess - I'm with @GboroRam that this isn't about appeasement, but Ukraine cannot win, or even withstand attack, without huge losses and the truly ridiculous suggestions of the likes of Liz Truss, plus some of the actions of Ukranian border police, does suggest there is a belief that the noblest thing you can do is die in battle. And, btw, we've not even touched the prospect of significant civilian casualties - Russians telling people in Kyiv they have 48 hours to get out, good luck and God's speed to those who can.

Sanctions will not affect much at all, this is a country that lived behind a curtain for 70 years and allowed itself to literally fall apart rather than ask for aid (until the Armenia earthquake). Cuba, Syria and other countries show that as well - they make for a less pleasant quality of life for most citizens but the seldom / never (maybe South Africa) result in change.

But if Russia decides to retreat behind its curtain again and fall apart how long is that sustainable? Also, the current and potential new sanctions are, I believe, far greater than have ever been seen before.

Cuba and Syria are interesting comparison but they of course have little global influence or power. Whilst Russia may be able to retain Ukraine (albeit under constant harassment possibly) and survive (I think the phrase “less pleasant is possibly and understatement) but would they be content with remaining in isolation and with very limited access to western markets?
 

The market place is far more global than it was 70 years ago so I’m not sure it would quite so easy for them to return to an increased state of isolation. I know they would still have the Chinese market and even the Chinese equivalent of SWIFT but China and Russia are not natural allies and I’m not sure either would want to become too over reliant on the other.

[Anon]

39 minutes ago, Old Spalding Ram said:

I can assure you that I and hopefully millions of Ukrainians  who are being being terrorised, bombed, traumatised, separated from their families and are prepared to stand in front of Russian tanks to save their country from a madman whilst they’re burying their dead would hardly call these “interesting times”!

 

What an absolute crass remark!

Did interesting become a synonym for good when I wasn't paying attention? It's a massive stretch to claim that merely saying something is interesting is crass.

[Stive Pesley]

10 hours ago, Alpha said:

What do you make of the right to freedom of the Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk? 

What do you think about the annexation of Crimea?

These might seem throwaway questions - but they are probably key points

I don't see the western media talking about areas of Ukraine where the majority might actually favour Russian rule - but they must surely exist?

Ukraine is a big old country, and I bet life in Kyev is a lot different to a village in the Donbass

Self-determination is the key, but recognising that is easier said that done given Russia's propensity for fixing/influencing elections and referendums

Do you think Putin would be happy to split Ukraine, or is he now hellbent on punishing Kyev for stoking resistance and wants all or nothing?

Pinko peacemongers like me have to accept that a "diplomatic solution" does not mean Putin gets out and stays out. The compromise means that Putin gets the bits of Ukraine that want to be Russian

 

[Eddie]

13 minutes ago, Anon said:

Did interesting become a synonym for good when I wasn't paying attention? It's a massive stretch to claim that merely saying something is interesting is crass.

The phrase "May you live in interesting times" was supposed to be an 'ancient Chinese curse' (which nobody was ever able to source). 

[GboroRam]

55 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

It was an echo of a previous post to reiterate a point made previously. I apologise if it upset you.

The old Chinese proverb was "may you live in interesting times" so I don't read it as crass or insensitive. It certainly isn't meant that way from the proverb. 

[BaaLocks]

12 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

These might seem throwaway questions - but they are probably key points

I don't see the western media talking about areas of Ukraine where the majority might actually favour Russian rule - but they must surely exist?

Ukraine is a big old country, and I bet life in Kyev is a lot different to a village in the Donbass

Self-determination is the key, but recognising that is easier said that done given Russia's propensity for fixing/influencing elections and referendums

Do you think Putin would be happy to split Ukraine, or is he now hellbent on punishing Kyev for stoking resistance and wants all or nothing?

Pinko peacemongers like me have to accept that a "diplomatic solution" does not mean Putin gets out and stays out. The compromise means that Putin gets the bits of Ukraine that want to be Russian

You can assume / conclude with some degree of certainty that the majority of the population east of Dneiper would choose to be part of Russia given the option - not all, it is somewhat akin to Northern Ireland in that you have divided desires but 18% of the population is considered Russian in all of Ukraine, large parts of the East are Orthodox, Russian passport holders and Eastward looking. Zelensky speaks for the majority but he does not speak for all of his country, unfortunately.

I remain hopeful that Putin's endgame is to invade all of Ukraine and then sue for a peace in which he retreats but takes Donbass and Lugansk. Sadly I am told by many it's all moved far beyond that now.

[BaaLocks]

6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

The old Chinese proverb was "may you live in interesting times" so I don't read it as crass or insensitive. It certainly isn't meant that way from the proverb. 

Thank you, that was how it was intended and also as response to the previous post about the Russian ambassador in Iceland. But i do appreciate that many are acutely sensitive - with very good reason - so I do reiterate I apologise if I caused offence in any way.

[BaaLocks]

26 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

But if Russia decides to retreat behind its curtain again and fall apart how long is that sustainable? Also, the current and potential new sanctions are, I believe, far greater than have ever been seen before.

Cuba and Syria are interesting comparison but they of course have little global influence or power. Whilst Russia may be able to retain Ukraine (albeit under constant harassment possibly) and survive (I think the phrase “less pleasant is possibly and understatement) but would they be content with remaining in isolation and with very limited access to western markets?

The market place is far more global than it was 70 years ago so I’m not sure it would quite so easy for them to return to an increased state of isolation. I know they would still have the Chinese market and even the Chinese equivalent of SWIFT but China and Russia are not natural allies and I’m not sure either would want to become too over reliant on the other.

Russia, or rather Putin, needs expansion to justify their military investment. Their population is in terminal decline so the only option for them to grow as an economy is to expand. If sanctions do force them to withdraw, which is a possibility, I fear it would only cause them to look elsewhere or regroup. I don't have the answer to what it the alternative because sanctions are almost step one in what is needed, but the chances of them having a positive impact is almost zero in my eyes. Russia could survive for decades under sanctions if needed, indeed they have been doing for years now which is why they have been seen to most Russians as a bit 'm'eh, what's new?'.

[Stive Pesley]

Another thing that I'm struggling to make sense of, is Putin's fear of Ukraine joining NATO

On the one level I get it - as it brings NATO to the Russian border

But then on the other hand - Russia already borders Latvia and Estonia (NATO members for nearly 20 years now)

And if he annexes Ukraine back into Mother Russia - then he gains Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania as NATO members on his border

 

 

[sage]

2 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Excellent point, and you are 100% right in what you say. Yet, at least in modern Russia, there is no large scale clamouring for it - the people are happy to live under the trade in the same way they are in most of China.

There also hasn't been in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan yet Americans and the West push for it under the flag of 'manifest destiny'. Our belief that we have the say on how other countries rule themselves is at the heart of almost all conflicts in the last 50 years.

How do we know there isn't a want for democracy. Maybe people are just scared to clamour?

[BaaLocks]

3 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Another thing that I'm struggling to make sense of, is Putin's fear of Ukraine joining NATO

On the one level I get it - as it brings NATO to the Russian border

But then on the other hand - Russia already borders Latvia and Estonia (NATO members for nearly 20 years now)

And if he annexes Ukraine back into Mother Russia - then he gains Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania as NATO members on his border

You're absolutely right, but I think it is all interconnected. Latvia and Estonia are not seen as Mother Russia, nor Poland etc. The one thing that any Russian will tell you, and has been echoed time and again in the past months, is that they will never again tolerate foreign boots on their land so if you appreciate they believe Ukraine is intrinsically part of 'Malorossiya' / Little Russia then it all connects. And yes, there is a walloping paradox in there about not tolerating foreign boots on their land but no less than Kamala Harris stating that big countries invading small ones is wrong.

BTW - if you have time to see it Lavrov's speech to the UN yesterday was a very good way to understand their perspective. Which is why it was so disappointing to see the co-ordinated walk out as soon as he started. The key point Russia has been making is that they are judged before action (not wrt Ukraine but wrt the last 30 years) so that action simply reinforced (and demonstrated) that belief.

Probably if I could distill my seventeen pages of banging on here into one statement it would be "seek to understand before you seek to be understood" and nobody has taken the time to do that to Russia in the years of build up to these events.