'8 more players' - what now?

[WhiteHorseRam]

23 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Why we're not out of embargo is the point!

You kind of get the feeling we are being waterboarded by the EFL until we are eventually relegated

[Gone]

13 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

I think that front 4 that played on Saturday will cause any team problems and Lawrence playing as a false 9 will score double figures.

Fair enough, hope you’re right. I don’t see it, I don’t see the other forward players getting more than 3 or 4 each which is the problem. Baldock maybe can get 10 if he stays fit. I guess time will tell and I look forward to some goals in the coming weeks  

[RoyMac5]

20 minutes ago, WhiteHorseRam said:

You kind of get the feeling we are being waterboarded by the EFL until we are eventually relegated

I think we Derby fans feel that 'they' are out to get us. To an extent that might be true but only in so far as the EFL can do us 'legally'. I think they are making sure they have got the maximum punishment allowable out of us. They know that if they look lenient towards us then other clubs will come back at them. But on the other hand if they try for more than they can 'legally' do, ie they only got £100k fine when they whinged about wanting more because their lawyers told them they had no likelihood of winning an appeal, then Mel will come back at them.

So I think they are checking what we might have done wrong in their eyes and what the maximum punishment is. Who knows maybe we passed P&S but they want to fine us for crappy accounting!  

Edited September 2, 2021 by RoyMac5

[May Contain Nuts]

36 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

I think that front 4 that played on Saturday will cause any team problems and Lawrence playing as a false 9 will score double figures.

Plus factor in Stretton already has 1 goal, an excellent finish, would have had 2 but for a world class block from a Forest defender and has had a couple more clear chances to score.

It's not a loan he needs it's continuing to be selected for us, building up his confidence and 'clinicity' (not a real word)

He's not a weakling being flattened by more experienced players, he's fighting for the ball well so we don't need to bulk him up particularly, he's reading the game well with good movement and anticipation to get himself himself in scoring positions at this level already.

I honestly think he looks no less a Championship capable player than Jack Marriott ever did.

If we keep playing the same in the same style I'm confident he'll get 6, 7 goals even mainly coming off the bench.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Coconut's Beard

[RoyMac5]

4 minutes ago, Coconut's Beard said:

Plus factor in Stretton already has 1 goal, an excellent finish, would have had 2 but for a world class block from a Forest defender and has had a couple more clear chances to score.

It's not a loan he needs it's continuing to be selected for us, building up his confidence and 'clinicity' (not a real word)

He's not a weakling being flattened by more experienced players, he's fighting for the ball well so we don't need to bulk him up particularly, he's reading the game well with good movement and anticipation to get himself himself in scoring positions at this level already.

I honestly think he looks no less a Championship capable player than Jack Marriott ever did.

If we keep playing the same in the same style I'm confident he'll get 6, 7 goals coming off the bench.

Fine. But that probably won't be enough to keep us out of the relegation fight. Most other clubs loan their youngsters out to make their mistakes and learn their trade with another club - we don't have that choice and some seem happy with what it will cost us.

[May Contain Nuts]

41 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Fine. But that probably won't be enough to keep us out of the relegation fight. Most other clubs loan their youngsters out to make their mistakes and learn their trade with another club - we don't have that choice and some seem happy with what it will cost us.

That depends entirely on how many goals you think are needed. It's not really avoiding a relegation fight I'm bothered about (which seems inevitable), it's avoiding an actual relegation.

I've had a look at teams who have avoided relegation (or better) despite scoring fewer than 50 goals in recent seasons (last season was a particularly low scoring affair all-round)

I came up with list of what I don't think are unrealistic expectations for goals scored by some of our players and came up with a very rough estimate of 43 - a little lower than I'd like in order to feel 'confident' of avoiding relegation, but it's doable, especially if its another low-scoring season all round.

(Lawrence - 8, Baldock - 7, Stretton - 6, Sibley - 6, CKR - 4, Morrison - 3, Jozwiak - 2, Bielik - 2, Shinnie - 2, Jagielka - 1, Bird - 1, Buchanan - 1)

That is of course assuming we don't lose half of them in January.

By the end of the season this estimate may look wildly ambitious, or maybe we'll exceed that amount (although it's rather unlikely we'll reach 50), but you really don't have top be a particularly high scoring team to stay up, or be comfortable, and sometimes it can be a surprise just how high a team with sub-50 goals scored can finish.

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Coconut's Beard

[Chris_Martin]

13 hours ago, DCFC Kicks said:

So what your basically saying is we don't score enough goals and we let in too many. What else is there we can do wrong??

we could also be poorly run off the field, make bad signings in the transfer market, break FFP rules and end up in some sort of embargo, possibly even end up on a dodgy dealings TV show.  Oh Wait a second.....

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, Coconut's Beard said:

That depends entirely on how many goals you think are needed. It's not really avoiding a relegation fight I'm bothered about (which seems inevitable), it's avoiding an actual relegation.

I've had a look at teams who have avoided relegation (or better) despite scoring fewer than 50 goals in recent seasons (last season was a particularly low scoring affair all-round)...

 

I think that for it to be a season with some hope we need to score goals and to do that we need a goal-scorer. That may eventually be Stretton, or maybe Baldock but his fitness is already a bit iffy.

If we get out of hard embargo we need a goal scorer - Gregory showed what a difference a striker who knew where to be makes. It doesn't have to be an expensive signing but we need cover at least.

[Tyler Durden]

1 hour ago, Coconut's Beard said:

That depends entirely on how many goals you think are needed. It's not really avoiding a relegation fight I'm bothered about (which seems inevitable), it's avoiding an actual relegation.

I've had a look at teams who have avoided relegation (or better) despite scoring fewer than 50 goals in recent seasons (last season was a particularly low scoring affair all-round)

I came up with list of what I don't think are unrealistic expectations for goals scored by some of our players and came up with a very rough estimate of 43 - a little lower than I'd like in order to feel 'confident' of avoiding relegation, but it's doable, especially if its another low-scoring season all round.

(Lawrence - 8, Baldock - 7, Stretton - 6, Sibley - 6, CKR - 4, Morrison - 3, Jozwiak - 2, Bielik - 2, Shinnie - 2, Jagielka - 1, Bird - 1, Buchanan - 1)

That is of course assuming we don't lose half of them in January.

By the end of the season this estimate may look wildly ambitious, or maybe we'll exceed that amount (although it's rather unlikely we'll reach 50), but you really don't have top be a particularly high scoring team to stay up, or be comfortable, and sometimes it can be a surprise just how high a team with sub-50 goals scored can finish.

 

Great piece of work ?

What the table doesn't show though is the importance of the distribution of goals against clean sheets which was so vital for us last season - when we scored first in a game we invariably went on to win the game whereas conversely our Achilles Heel was when we went behind in a game we then invariably failed to get anything from it.

So really the goals for can't be considered in isolation without considering the goals against on a match by match basis, a piece of work I believe you've also conducted a few days ago. 

This season we've already chucked away points from winning positions in 3 games (Huddersfield, Posh and Forest) but at least protected that lead to go onto win against Hull, so the discipline from last season has been lost somewhat which was the cornerstone of us staying up last season.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Tyler Durden

[MuespachRam]

I honestly don’t think the goals scored is going to be the main thing we have to worry about, the defence is my biggest worry. 
we have an ok at best starting defence, but if anyone thinks that 863 year old Davies and 943 year old Jagielka are going to stay fit and be able to play every Saturday and Tuesday from August until May then they are living in a dream land - and without those two, we have a big problem. 

[Blondest Goat]

Even if they stay injury free they will be knackered and that will cost us points as well.   If we stay up with a squad this thin it will be an amazing job by all concerned. 

[BramcoteRam84]

On 02/09/2021 at 09:23, Coconut's Beard said:

Plus factor in Stretton already has 1 goal, an excellent finish, would have had 2 but for a world class block from a Forest defender and has had a couple more clear chances to score.

It's not a loan he needs it's continuing to be selected for us, building up his confidence and 'clinicity' (not a real word)

He's not a weakling being flattened by more experienced players, he's fighting for the ball well so we don't need to bulk him up particularly, he's reading the game well with good movement and anticipation to get himself himself in scoring positions at this level already.

I honestly think he looks no less a Championship capable player than Jack Marriott ever did.

If we keep playing the same in the same style I'm confident he'll get 6, 7 goals even mainly coming off the bench.

I really like Stretton, in time he could be a good well rounded centre forward able to hold ball and run channels, you’re probably right with the Marriott comparison, would certainly rather have stretton over Marriott and his £19k per week wages.

[MickD]

On 01/09/2021 at 04:34, TexasRam said:

We’ve kept 2 clean sheets in 7 games this season. If we don’t score more than the other team we won’t win many games this season I’m afraid.

 

If we don’t score more than the other team we (won’t) can't win (m)any games this season I’m afraid.  ☺️

[MickD]

19 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

I really like Stretton, in time he could be a good well rounded centre forward able to hold ball and run channels, you’re probably right with the Marriott comparison, would certainly rather have stretton over Marriott and his £19k per week wages.

The last "well rounded" centre forward we had was Frannie Lee

[Bianoic]

On 02/09/2021 at 09:21, RoyMac5 said:

I think we Derby fans feel that 'they' are out to get us. To an extent that might be true but only in so far as the EFL can do us 'legally'. I think they are making sure they have got the maximum punishment allowable out of us. They know that if they look lenient towards us then other clubs will come back at them. But on the other hand if they try for more than they can 'legally' do, ie they only got £100k fine when they whinged about wanting more because their lawyers told them they had no likelihood of winning an appeal, then Mel will come back at them.

So I think they are checking what we might have done wrong in their eyes and what the maximum punishment is. Who knows maybe we passed P&S but they want to fine us for crappy accounting!  

"I think we Derby fans feel that 'they' are out to get us"

Total paranoia in my view

These people have far more bigger issues on their plate than to be harbouring a grudge against us or anyone else. And they simply don't have the time. 

They are acutely aware that they have to be doing the right thing for the EFL as a whole, and rightly so

Its such a little man attitude to complain that you are always being picked on

[RoyMac5]

3 minutes ago, Bianoic said:

"I think we Derby fans feel that 'they' are out to get us"

Total paranoia in my view

These people have far more bigger issues on their plate than to be harbouring a grudge against us or anyone else. And they simply don't have the time. 

They are acutely aware that they have to be doing the right thing for the EFL as a whole, and rightly so

Its such a little man attitude to complain that you are always being picked on

And so when Nixon says that other Championship teams have missed transfer payments but aren't on the embargo list? ? 

If you don't complain they'll stomp on you! 

[Bianoic]

12 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

And so when Nixon says that other Championship teams have missed transfer payments but aren't on the embargo list? ? 

If you don't complain they'll stomp on you! 

Who is Nixon ?

Genuine question - thats a baffling response Roy

[RoyMac5]

Just now, Bianoic said:

Who is Nixon ?

Genuine question - thats a baffling response Roy

Journalist.

[Bianoic]

Just now, RoyMac5 said:

Journalist.

Journalist 

Is that it ? So you take this stuff as fact ?

Hmmmm

[atherstoneram]

2 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Journalist.

You are picking a tweet to suit your agenda @RoyMac5 , in a later tweet he said he understands we are owed money by other clubs. That's a big difference from saying we are owed money