Coronavirus

[CWC1983]

She was strong enough to put Glasgow and surrounding areas into a strict lockdown in early October when cases began to rise. 

Hence the current numbers look favourable compared to the other home nations. 

Compare with London and the surrounding areas where there seemed to be an unwillingness to close pubs and restaurants until the numbers became severe. 

I honestly don't get the Sturgeon baiting in here especially relating covid. She's been head and shoulders above her Westminster peers. Do people actually watch her daily conferences? 

 

 

 

[Albert]

7 hours ago, Archied said:

Wow how bizarre is this thread becoming ,,, far right ,     yes far right if you question anything ,,wow just wow

To be fair, if the shoe fits. There have been a number of posters by certain users from that kind of publication. Equally, as noted, the 'dying with Covid' line is just so silly that it's surprising that anyone would go back to it. It might as well be claiming that Covid was created by lizard people at this point. 

[Albert]

Honestly @G STAR RAM, at this point you've outed yourself as being an evidence denier with your responses to that point. That's your choice, but I'm surprised that's how you respond when you don't like the evidence. 

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, Albert said:

Honestly @G STAR RAM, at this point you've outed yourself as being an evidence denier with your responses to that point. That's your choice, but I'm surprised that's how you respond when you don't like the evidence. 

And you've FINALLY outed yourself as the typical leftie that has to resort to calling people right wing and conspiracy theorists if they dare to question your 'evidence'.

The 8.2m deaths comment was where your previous good performance started to unravel.

Enjoy the rest of your day ?

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

And you've FINALLY outed yourself as the typical leftie that has to resort to calling people right wing and conspiracy theorists if they dare to question your 'evidence'.

I find it interesting that you label me as a leftie. 

I don't need to 'resort' to calling people right wing or conspiracy theorists. People have been posting literal right wing conspiracy theories, in some cases directly from alt right websites. 

Also, you've not actually questioned any evidence, you've just flat out denied what's put in front of your without any reasoning given, that is, when the evidence isn't what you like, rather than discuss it, you've just denied it, ie acted as an evidence denier. 

2 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The 8.2m deaths comment was where your previous good performance started to unravel.

I'm not sure if you're struggling with basic numeracy, but the 8.2m figure is a direct consequence of following the assumption that such a large fraction of the deaths (still less than a third) could be caused by anything other than Covid. The point of the figure is that it is silly, because such a claim is silly. 

2 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Enjoy the rest of your day ?

Cheers mate. 

[G STAR RAM]

11 minutes ago, Albert said:

I find it interesting that you label me as a leftie. 

I don't need to 'resort' to calling people right wing or conspiracy theorists. People have been posting literal right wing conspiracy theories, in some cases directly from alt right websites. 

Also, you've not actually questioned any evidence, you've just flat out denied what's put in front of your without any reasoning given, that is, when the evidence isn't what you like, rather than discuss it, you've just denied it, ie acted as an evidence denier. 

I'm not sure if you're struggling with basic numeracy, but the 8.2m figure is a direct consequence of following the assumption that such a large fraction of the deaths (still less than a third) could be caused by anything other than Covid. The point of the figure is that it is silly, because such a claim is silly. 

Cheers mate. 

Just thinking if you are in a position to call claims about other deaths arising from the Covid pandemic silly, then you must be in possession of the actual number, can you please inform us what it is and the breakdown too if you have it, cheers.

[Albert]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Just thinking if you are in a position to call claims about other deaths arising from the Covid pandemic silly, then you must be in possession of the actual number, can you please inform us what it is and the breakdown too if you have it, cheers.

I gave you the two official figures, and explained in detail how we know claims that these figures are exaggerated, particularly the 28 days figure, just isn't plausible. You've failed to respond to any of that. 

[G STAR RAM]

2 minutes ago, Albert said:

I gave you the two official figures, and explained in detail how we know claims that these figures are exaggerated, particularly the 28 days figure, just isn't plausible. You've failed to respond to any of that. 

Sorry didnt see it.

Dont bury it in a long post this time, can I just have the figure of other, non covid related deaths that have arisen from this pandemic?

[Albert]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

Sorry didnt see it.

Dont bury it in a long post this time, can I just have the figure of other, non covid related deaths that have arisen from this pandemic?

Non-Covid related deaths are hard to quantify at this stage of a pandemic, and are something that is more for research once this is all over. Excess death figures suggest that Covid is responsible for the majority of excess deaths above the 5 year mean though. 

[G STAR RAM]

Just now, Albert said:

Non-Covid related deaths are hard to quantify at this stage of a pandemic, and are something that is more for research once this is all over. Excess death figures suggest that Covid is responsible for the majority of excess deaths above the 5 year mean though. 

So why are you calling people silly, right wing and conspiracy theorists for questioning something that is hard to quantify?

Dont think anybody has question Covid being responsible for the majority of excess deaths have they?

[Albert]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So why are you calling people silly, right wing and conspiracy theorists for questioning something that is hard to quantify?

Dont think anybody has question Covid being responsible for the majority of excess deaths have they?

What I'm calling silly is questioning the number of Covid related deaths. 

The number of other deaths is hard to quanify. If you're not questioning the number of Covid related deaths, then my mistake, that's what those posts were discussing. It seems we've had a misunderstanding. 

[Norman]

39 minutes ago, Albert said:

I find it interesting that you label me as a leftie. 

I don't need to 'resort' to calling people right wing or conspiracy theorists. People have been posting literal right wing* conspiracy theories, in some cases directly from alt right websites. 

Also, you've not actually questioned any evidence, you've just flat out denied what's put in front of your without any reasoning given, that is, when the evidence isn't what you like, rather than discuss it, you've just denied it, ie acted as an evidence denier. 

I'm not sure if you're struggling with basic numeracy, but the 8.2m figure is a direct consequence of following the assumption that such a large fraction of the deaths (still less than a third) could be caused by anything other than Covid. The point of the figure is that it is silly, because such a claim is silly. 

Cheers mate. 

*Far-left. 

[Eddie]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Dont think anybody has question Covid being responsible for the majority of excess deaths have they?

There are a few on here who continually try to deflect from the official figures, even to the point of accusing posters of lying when the official figures are posted.

[Norman]

2 minutes ago, Eddie said:

There are a few on here who continually try to deflect from the official figures, even to the point of accusing posters of lying when the official figures are posted.

Who? 

[Wolfie]

2 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

People can’t visit the grandkids but can go to work in a school with 30+ kids of similar age in one class.

Someone is having a laugh.

There is no sense whatsoever to Tier 4 rules while schools are open.

 

There is little evidence of primary school kids transmitting the virus. Secondary kids are all going to be tested before going back.

As the father of a year 3 child, I'd much rather she was at school. I know the effect of the first school shut down on her and classmates and I want to avoid that this time.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

4 minutes ago, Norman said:

Who? 

Goes by the name Boris

[G STAR RAM]

4 minutes ago, Albert said:

What I'm calling silly is questioning the number of Covid related deaths. 

The number of other deaths is hard to quanify. If you're not questioning the number of Covid related deaths, then my mistake, that's what those posts were discussing. It seems we've had a misunderstanding. 

I don't even necessarily disagree with you.

I'm just wondering how you can conclude other peoples are theories are silly if you can't prove them wrong due to figures being hard to quantify.

Personally I think there will be areas where deaths are down on the average year, mainly due to the amount of time people are spending in the home. But think there may also be areas above the average year due to lack of diagnosis.

I certainly think the latter will kick in the longer the pandemic goes on.

Whether they above has affected the excess death figures I dont know, and I don't think I've read anything from you that definitely proves they haven't. 

As I said anecdotal evidence from people claiming relatives are being recorded as Covid deaths, when they are not,  leaves me with an open mind on the matter.

Lets be honest though, even if the figures are 10 or 20 thousand over stated it doesn't make much of a dent in the figures.

[Albert]

Speaking of data, the occupation of mechanical ventilator beds is looking worrisome right now. 

It's been on the rise again since 5 December, and the trend appears more exponential than linear. Peak occupation was 3,301, and on current trend we're set to see that again within 20 days. Action now by the government to lockdown properly should be able to avert that though. 

[Albert]

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

I don't even necessarily disagree with you.

I'm just wondering how you can conclude other peoples are theories are silly if you can't prove them wrong due to figures being hard to quantify.

The issue here, again, seems to be a misunderstanding of what each were trying to discuss. For me, I was trying to discuss that the idea that a significant fraction of deaths listed as Covid could be something else, ie the 'dying with Covid, not of Covid' that the far right likes so much. You're discussing an entirely different point about the number of other deaths that are occurring due to the pandemic, which is sadly a figure that we won't know properly until this is all over.  

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

Personally I think there will be areas where deaths are down on the average year, mainly due to the amount of time people are spending in the home. But think there may also be areas above the average year due to lack of diagnosis.

I don't disagree, there are likely excess deaths that are hard to quantify. Given the lockdowns, there are a number of causes that you'd expect to be down. That said, as noted the excess deaths figures still do track well mostly with Covid deaths, so you'd not expect non-Covid deaths to outstrip those. That said, we won't know the true figure until this is over, as noted. 

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

I certainly think the latter will kick in the longer the pandemic goes on.

Whether they above has affected the excess death figures I dont know, and I don't think I've read anything from you that definitely proves they haven't. 

Well no, because that's not what I was discussing. Again, my figures were regarding the idea that a significant fraction of deaths listed as Covid could be something else. I misunderstood the point you were trying to make, as you misunderstood mine. 

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

As I said anecdotal evidence from people claiming relatives are being recorded as Covid deaths, when they are not,  leaves me with an open mind on the matter.

You can have an 'open mind', but the 28 days figure cannot be explained by any other cause, as noted, unless there is some massive unknown extra driver of deaths, which if not actually being caused by infection, would imply an astonishing number of other deaths across the UK, which hasn't been observed (ie the 8.2m figure). 

Just now, G STAR RAM said:

Lets be honest though, even if the figures are 10 or 20 thousand over stated it doesn't make much of a dent in the figures.

As noted, the extent of overestimate it of the order of ~1-2k, and the extent of underestimate from the same figure is likely an order of magnitude more than that. Like most epidemics, it's likely that the Covid death figure will be revised up when all is said and done. 

[sonofmidnight]

12 minutes ago, Wolfie said:

There is little evidence of primary school kids transmitting the virus. Secondary kids are all going to be tested before going back.

As the father of a year 3 child, I'd much rather she was at school. I know the effect of the first school shut down on her and classmates and I want to avoid that this 

I don't believe this because my daughter in law who is a GP in Sheffield said all the cases she saw before Christmas had caught it from their children in primary school. In any case my sons are teachers. They have no protection. They are physically and mentally exhausted, have to cover for colleagues who are sick and and are being used as a political football.