Coronavirus

[i-Ram]

13 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Why are trying make me look like I am being like make my fault I was stood down by the goverment. And not my fault I have learing differcults and auriustim. Reason why my mum cooks for me. Is because walk off I forget about it so just safer not to do it.

It seems to me that now is a perfect time for you to learn to cook some basic meals with your mum (and to concentrate on not walking off).  Over the next week or two why don’t you let us know what you and your mum have made each day. Some day, hopefully a long time away, you will need to be able look after yourself.  

[i-Ram]

7 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

I know this won’t be popular but Governments were listening to WHO and they weren’t advising travel restrictions. This is where Trump is coming from.

WHO have a lot to answer for, but watching Trump’s daily briefings has become essential bedtime telly for me. He is currently trying his best/worst to deflect blame away from himself - WHO and China are his current targets, but there will soon be others (Democrats should certainly be readying themselves). It seems pretty clear that Trump was getting a lot of scientific and medical advice throughout February which he and his administration pushed back against as they did not want to harm their “beautiful economy”. They reacted far too late, which is true of the UK, France and Spain. What is less clear, certainly to me, is what scientific and medical advice these Countries received, and the timings, because it is clear that Italy’s predicament should have set the alarm bells ringing throughout Europe. It seems to me nobody really got to grips with it, until it was too late, other than Germany. 

[ramit]

19 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

I know this won’t be popular but Governments were listening to WHO and they weren’t advising travel restrictions. This is where Trump is coming from.

The people my countrymen relied on did that as well.  They did not seek out info by themselves, i was much better up to date than they were and it's their fault for not seeking out the information needed to protect the citizens.  Trump and his government made the same mistake.  WHO got it wrong repeatedly but no alarm bells rang with state institutions, while they were ringing loud and clear for citizens with ears to hear them.

[ariotofmyown]

4 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

If only half this thread is correct (click on it to see the full timeline) we should hang, draw and quarter the lot of them.

 

Surely it's time to get experienced decision makers into powerful positions. Been a journalist is not good preparation for leading a country when things are good, let alone during a disaster. Tough to think of a worse cabinet than this one. But compared to the US, our leaders are incredible.

[B4ev6is]

54 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

It seems to me that now is a perfect time for you to learn to cook some basic meals with your mum (and to concentrate on not walking off).  Over the next week or two why don’t you let us know what you and your mum have made each day. Some day, hopefully a long time away, you will need to be able look after yourself.  

You just dont understand I have walk off with oven I think hit lit and infact it has not. So she bannied me from going anywere near it.

[Gritstone Ram]

39 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

WHO have a lot to answer for, but watching Trump’s daily briefings has become essential bedtime telly for me. He is currently trying his best/worst to deflect blame away from himself - WHO and China are his current targets, but there will soon be others (Democrats should certainly be readying themselves). It seems pretty clear that Trump was getting a lot of scientific and medical advice throughout February which he and his administration pushed back against as they did not want to harm their “beautiful economy”. They reacted far too late, which is true of the UK, France and Spain. What is less clear, certainly to me, is what scientific and medical advice these Countries received, and the timings, because it is clear that Italy’s predicament should have set the alarm bells ringing throughout Europe. It seems to me nobody really got to grips with it, until it was too late, other than Germany. 

Germany is a strange one. Over a million test yet only 10% infection rate to tests. They may have found people early on and isolated them to prevent mass spread that’s the only answer I can find. However they still buck the trend of numbers of deaths to infections along with China, Iran and Russia.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

1 hour ago, ramit said:

This is one of the main ways that the virus spread here, people went on skiing trips to Austria.  In one group of 24, 20 became infected.  There comes a point when people have to take responsibility for their actions.  The world was already in a serious pandemic, saying that government should have put travel restrictions earlier is all well and good but doesn't excuse reckless behavior.

I believe the first, or one of, in the UK was from a holiday to an Italian ski resort.  A family in Devon.  Another one was from the same Austrian resort you mentioned.   Some fella picked it up at a very high end Apre's-ski, and reported him and his family had the virus on getting home. Apparantly, no-one paid attention so he had to insist. On contacting the Austrian authorities, turns out checks showed the resort  was rife and had been for a while.  The owners didn't tell anyone .  Seems to be a common theme.

 

 

 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

2 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

Germany is a strange one. Over a million test yet only 10% infection rate to tests. They may have found people early on and isolated them to prevent mass spread that’s the only answer I can find. However they still buck the trend of numbers of deaths to infections along with China, Iran and Russia.

I believe one of the things Germany did was quite practical.  Before this really reared it's head anywhere outside Greece and Italy, they did temperature checks on predominantly younger people coming into the country on the assumption they would have moved around more and been in closer proximity to more people.  They found loads of infection at source.  Such simple measures aren't rocket science, But not sure we are even doing that now.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

5 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I believe one of the things Germany did was quite practical.  Before this really reared it's head anywhere outside Greece and Italy, they did temperature checks on predominantly younger people coming into the country on the assumption they would have moved around more and been in closer proximity to more people.  They found loads of infection at source.  Such simple measures aren't rocket science, But not sure we are even doing that now.

That's Germany for you. efficient and prepared, some might say a little boring but they know what they are doing. I worked there late 90's and we were having lunch sat on a sturdy looking wall about 1m high which went all around the building hosting most of their servers.  I asked why it was put there as it clearly wasn't about decoration, someone told me it is in case somebody drove a lorry into the building. Back then there wasn't the terrorist threats there is now but they thought about it, business continuity is not a buzz word over there!

The backup/failover servers were hosted in another town...

[Gritstone Ram]

37 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I believe one of the things Germany did was quite practical.  Before this really reared it's head anywhere outside Greece and Italy, they did temperature checks on predominantly younger people coming into the country on the assumption they would have moved around more and been in closer proximity to more people.  They found loads of infection at source.  Such simple measures aren't rocket science, But not sure we are even doing that now.

Hopefully that is something we can learn from.

[G STAR RAM]

12 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

If only half this thread is correct (click on it to see the full timeline) we should hang, draw and quarter the lot of them.

 

Who are you referring to as the lot of them?

[G STAR RAM]

8 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Surely it's time to get experienced decision makers into powerful positions. Been a journalist is not good preparation for leading a country when things are good, let alone during a disaster. Tough to think of a worse cabinet than this one. But compared to the US, our leaders are incredible.

Can you give an example of any experienced decision makers that you want in powerful positions.

Also how you know they would have reacted any different based on the evidence that has been provided from the scientific/medical experts.

I'm assuming from this that you want 99% of world leaders replaced, along with the EU and WHO leaders?

[angieram]

8 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I believe the first, or one of, in the UK was from a holiday to an Italian ski resort.  A family in Devon.  Another one was from the same Austrian resort you mentioned.   Some fella picked it up at a very high end Apre's-ski, and reported him and his family had the virus on getting home. Apparantly, no-one paid attention so he had to insist. On contacting the Austrian authorities, turns out checks showed the resort  was rife and had been for a while.  The owners didn't tell anyone .  Seems to be a common theme.

 

 

 

And the first reported Derbyshire case was someone returning from a half term skiing trip to Italy. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

12 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

If only half this thread is correct (click on it to see the full timeline) we should hang, draw and quarter the lot of them.

 

Google "cygnus 2016" and there's plenty of material. 

Cygnus was the code name of the exercise. Theres a big piece in the day telegraph from a couple of weeks back about it.

Problem is that we're trying to deal with models, that in the last couple of potential pandemic scenarios completely overestimated things, so the data credibility started from a low base.

Then we refuse to have any grown up debate about how much the public think is reasonable for our government to spend in having spare capacity ready for the extreme scenario that sits idle for the majority of the time.

Youd think that compared to the alternative of shutting down the economy the answer would be "quite a lot".

[Gaspode]

7 hours ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

That's Germany for you. efficient and prepared, some might say a little boring but they know what they are doing. I worked there late 90's and we were having lunch sat on a sturdy looking wall about 1m high which went all around the building hosting most of their servers.  I asked why it was put there as it clearly wasn't about decoration, someone told me it is in case somebody drove a lorry into the building. Back then there wasn't the terrorist threats there is now but they thought about it, business continuity is not a buzz word over there!

The backup/failover servers were hosted in another town...

That’s pretty standard amongst larger organisations in this country as well and has been in the 30+ years I’ve worked in IT - please  don’t assume that all UK businesses are incompetent and don’t have disaster recovery/business continuity in place - it’s simply not true.

[Wolfie]

13 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

If only half this thread is correct (click on it to see the full timeline) we should hang, draw and quarter the lot of them.

 

Not really. He does deserve an A* though, for oustanding selective memory and clipping of quotes, to put across one side of an argument with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[G STAR RAM]

36 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Not really. He does deserve an A* though, for oustanding selective memory and clipping of quotes, to put across one side of an argument with the benefit of hindsight.

Are you suggesting that there is no balance to this and that this is a virus that has caught the whole world off guard?

That's outrageous.

[Van der MoodHoover]

31 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Not really. He does deserve an A* though, for outstanding selective memory and clipping of quotes, to put across one side of an argument with the benefit of hindsight.

 

Personally, i tend to mentally apply the same standards that I am under as a "Significant Management Function" being regulated by the Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority.

These are "individual accountability" and "reasonable steps".

The first demands that it is clear WHO is accountable for the decision - ultimately in a cabinet system we can assume that it rolls up to the PM and they can point fingers in various directions if they so choose.

The second simply requires that, if you took a decision that is based on uncertainties, what was your thought process (ie what was the nature of your risk trade-offs) and what steps did you take to ensure that your decision was reasonable.

In this case, it might be that the decision NOT to take action on the results of the simulation was balancing the risk of a pandemic against the risk of wider economic harm caused by not reducing the budget deficit. But there should be a documented thought process to that effect with the various supporting analyses so it was clear that the pandemic risk was being actively accepted.

Whether it needs a public inquiry to establish all of this I don't know - you'd like to think our government was a bit more organised than that and could simply pull a file off the shelf.

[G STAR RAM]

Just a thought here.

In the ONS stats released on Monday, deaths were up 6000 on average of which only 3000 were Covid-19 related.

Is the lockdown causing as many non Covid-19 related deaths as the virus itself?

Or are the number of Covid-19 related deaths understated?

Is there an argument there for relaxing the lockdown asap?

 

[BaaLocks]

38 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Not really. He does deserve an A* though, for oustanding selective memory and clipping of quotes, to put across one side of an argument with the benefit of hindsight.

 

Can you direct me to, or highlight, some of the areas where it has omitted or over embellished? Genuinely, I would be interested in trying to understand how the argument is positioned from the other perspective coz (and I know I have probably created for myself a bit of an echo chamber) my Twitter feed seems to full of stories like this. Again, sure that doesn't surprise you but I would really like to understand it from the other side in a bit more detail than 'clap for Boris for he is risen'.