The Politics Thread 2019

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Because the BoE's actions were what prevented the need for the emergency budget. They:

Reduced the forecast, cutting it by 2.5% - the biggest ever drop
Cut the bank rate to 0.25%
Restarted the quantitative easing asset purchase programme
Spent £60bn on bonds and £10bn on corporate bonds
Funded commercial banks at the new rates on condition they didn't cut back on lending
Gave a signal they may reduce interest rates and/or buy more bonds if required

The BoE made a prediction and fought to stop the fallout. It doesn't mean that the downsides weren't real - just it cost a lot to stop the bus careering off the road.

Good answer, thank you. 

Goes to show then that actions can be taken to overcome forecasts...

[GboroRam]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Good answer, thank you. 

Goes to show then that actions can be taken to overcome forecasts...

Actions that cost around £70bn. We don't have the luxury of throwing money at every problem. 

Unless maybe we start making people pay their taxes, but I can't see either the Tories or the Brexit party doing that.

[Stive Pesley]

21 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Until it starts entering the mainstream such as several recent high profile sporting controversies for example.

More importantly however, and for the benefit of @eddie its the free speech/censorship angle that concerns me the most.  There is a debate to be had but if one side can casually shout transphobic and shut down discussion its not going to end well.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/even-our-mps-are-afraid-of-the-transgender-mob/

On this particular issue - it's a very sensitive subject that deserves respectful and considered debate. It's 100% not suited to open un-censored discussion via strangers on social media. Anyone trying to discuss it in good faith via that medium is always going to get shouted down. But then when I look at the twitter feeds of Trans people I know - the abuse they are being subjected to is horrendous. It's a bad medium to stage that debate - from both angles, but its sad that the antagonists who seem to want to get involved in "having the debate" most often appear to be motivated by their will to deny the other individual's agency.

I don't think I've said anything too contentious there, but again we're heading away from politics..

[G STAR RAM]

16 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Actions that cost around £70bn. We don't have the luxury of throwing money at every problem. 

Unless maybe we start making people pay their taxes, but I can't see either the Tories or the Brexit party doing that.

Well eliminating our contributing to the EU will be a start. Maybe follow that up with reducing foreign aid. 

Maybe look to giving away handouts before going after the people that contribute a lot of money to the system already.

[maxjam]

18 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

I don't think I've said anything too contentious there, but again we're heading away from politics..

I specifically chose a political article about MPs being afraid to talk about the transgender issue to highlight media bias/censorship (which is also the case with racism etc) but yeah I'd agree its not really a topic for this forum nor one that can be debated in posts that are typically a couple of paragraphs long.

Its not even really the politics thread, its the Brexit thread and I've probably taken up far to much time of anyone thats still bothering to read these posts with my free speech crusade by now, so I'll bow out ?

[eddie]

53 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

There is no denial or decrying of the economic predictions or forecasts.

Give me some evidence that shows I should heavily rely on the government predictions and you never know, you may even persuade me to think otherwise.

The only recently predictions I am going on are the mass unemployment and required emergency budget if we voted Leave.

Such wildly incorrect predictions made just months before the vote. If they are so wildly wrong over a period of months why should I pay any attention to predictions made 15 years in advance?  Especially with so many unknowns variables.

This isn't me saying my ignorance is better than their 'expertise', this is me asking for evidence to back up their expertise.

Are the IMF forecasts of 3-4% over the next two years in a no-deal Brexit good enough for you, or is that 'politically motivated' too? After all, that's what some Brexit campaigners are saying.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-imf-worldbank-britain/uk-economy-to-lose-3-5-percent-of-gdp-in-no-deal-brexit-imf-idUKKCN1RL1JA

Actually, I should like you to produce evidence to the contrary, either short-term or long-term. I recall people talking about how great it was going to be, that the EU was 'dragging us back' ( @Curtains still seems to be saying that), but those arguments seem to be now replaced by statements such as "Well, nobody really knows what will happen" (best case scenario), "Short-term pain" (Curtains again) right the way through to "We survived the Blitz" (general comments from Brexit supporters passim).

I would also be keen to know, from anyone advocating a 'hard' Brexit, just two things:

1. How much pain is 'too much'

2. Why I should not look upon Brexit as a cult in the absence of any tangible benefits

 

[Norman]

5 hours ago, McRamFan said:

 

My parents where born in Ireland and came to the UK

'No Blacks, No Irish and No Dogs'.  

Sargon. You know it too.

[eddie]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

Until it starts entering the mainstream such as several recent high profile sporting controversies for example.

More importantly however, and for the benefit of @eddie its the free speech/censorship angle that concerns me the most.  There is a debate to be had but if one side can casually shout transphobic and shut down discussion its not going to end well.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/even-our-mps-are-afraid-of-the-transgender-mob/

Not sure why you have brought me into this with respect to 'free speech'. The only mention I made on the subject was to state that, in my opinion, putting Boris Johnson in the dock for lying is a dangerous precedent. I would advocate putting him in the stocks for being an idiot.

Anyway, on the lighter side...

[MaltRam]

1 hour ago, McRamFan said:

So what is your answer?? You asked a question, you got an answer, get over the fact you didn't like it.  As for it being hypocrisy, you don't know me.

I got a politicians answer. I agreed as an opener to my question that you have a fair point about latent racism in the Anglo culture in the UK.

I simply asked whether or not you think there is an issue for the muslim community in the UK to address too.

I never accused you of hypocrisy, and I do not believe you are one. I said your reply was 'whataboutery and a cop out'. It was, and I think that this reluctance to broach any such topic without hand-wringing about it is exactly why Tommy Robinson has owned the public space on this topic for so long. If moderate voices do not address a problem directly, more radical voices will.

 

I'll give you a straight answer.

There are several reasons for the muslim population of the UK to have a look at their community. Terrorism, FGM, sexual abuse...you know the list.

Why was it you couldn't say that without deflecting? 

[G STAR RAM]

25 minutes ago, eddie said:

Are the IMF forecasts of 3-4% over the next two years in a no-deal Brexit good enough for you, or is that 'politically motivated' too? After all, that's what some Brexit campaigners are saying.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-imf-worldbank-britain/uk-economy-to-lose-3-5-percent-of-gdp-in-no-deal-brexit-imf-idUKKCN1RL1JA

Actually, I should like you to produce evidence to the contrary, either short-term or long-term. I recall people talking about how great it was going to be, that the EU was 'dragging us back' ( @Curtains still seems to be saying that), but those arguments seem to be now replaced by statements such as "Well, nobody really knows what will happen" (best case scenario), "Short-term pain" (Curtains again) right the way through to "We survived the Blitz" (general comments from Brexit supporters passim).

I would also be keen to know, from anyone advocating a 'hard' Brexit, just two things:

1. How much pain is 'too much'

2. Why I should not look upon Brexit as a cult in the absence of any tangible benefits

I cannot provide any evidence to the contrary I'm afraid.

As you will be aware a lot of the losses/benefits will not be known until after Brexit has occurred, due to the way the EU operates.

The thing is I've seen a lot of Brexiteers admit that they do not know what the outcomes will be and that there will be at least some short term, it is Remainers that don't seem prepared to admit or accept that they are in exactly the same position. 

I'm willing to read through every piece of evidence put in front of me but admit I will be sceptical about it. I don't think Remainers are prepared to do the same. 

I'm literally at the stage now, where I don't care if there is a second referendum and I no longer really care if we leave the EU. 

[Norman]

33 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Well eliminating our contributing to the EU will be a start. Maybe follow that up with reducing foreign aid. 

Maybe look to giving away handouts before going after the people that contribute a lot of money to the system already.

I have a forecast.

40 years from now, we live in an undemocratic superstate.

It has its own army.

It's decided to take on China. In the name of trade and economics.

It has a superiority and moral complex.

It is unaccountable. 

The economics are controlled by an appointed board. One that has been pro-austerity for 50 years. It has crippled many countries.

We have been forced or 'manipulated' into taking the Euro. Our finances are therefore controlled by an appointed board. We can't control our own economy.

We can't leave, we don't have a say, we can't stop it.

No thanks.

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, Norman said:

I have a forecast.

40 years from now, we live in an undemocratic superstate.

It has its own army.

It's decided to take on China. In the name of trade and economics.

It has a superiority and moral complex.

It is unaccountable. 

The economics are controlled by an appointed board. One that has been pro-austerity for 50 years. It has crippled many countries.

We have been forced or 'manipulated' into taking the Euro. Our finances are therefore controlled by an appointed board. We can't control our own economy.

We can't leave, we don't have a say, we can't stop it.

No thanks.

That's not a forecast, you're just describing the EU...oh I see what you did there ?

[Stive Pesley]

41 minutes ago, Needless said:

I'll give you a straight answer.

There are several reasons for the muslim population of the UK to have a look at their community. Terrorism, FGM, sexual abuse...you know the list.

None of those things are in any way exclusive to muslims. FGM in particular is more cultural than religious.

You should definitely stop making ignorant generalisations about religion as you'll just get posts removed under the rules

Instead try reading this interview. He's a muslim and more than happy to criticise their community where criticism is valid, rather than born through prejudice. As he says - the extremist muslims and the far right both hate him - so he must be doing something right

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/03/nazir-afzal-there-is-no-religious-basis-for-the-abuse-in-rotherham

[eddie]

33 minutes ago, Norman said:

I have a forecast.

40 years from now, we live in an undemocratic superstate.

It has its own army.

It's decided to take on China. In the name of trade and economics.

It has a superiority and moral complex.

It is unaccountable. 

The economics are controlled by an appointed board. One that has been pro-austerity for 50 years. It has crippled many countries.

We have been forced or 'manipulated' into taking the Euro. Our finances are therefore controlled by an appointed board. We can't control our own economy.

We can't leave, we don't have a say, we can't stop it.

No thanks.

I have a forecast, assuming we leave the EU without a deal..

40 years from now, I will have been dead for something like 20 years.

For the previous 20 years (the last 20 years of my life), I will have seen my standard of living fall further and further behind what it would have been if we had remained in the EU.

I will have had to sell my house to pay for my and my wife's health care following the abolition of the NHS.

The United Kingdom now consists of the North of England and Wales.

Scotland has merged with Norway and Iceland.

Ireland is united.

London is an independent city state.

The ruling party in NEW Britannia is Ingsoc.

Chocolate Rations have been increased to 20 graps per person per week.

Victory Gin will be a best-seller.

We will have always been at war with Eurasia.

When the archivists uncover DCFCFans' server and decode this thread, they will decide that my reply is more accurate than your original post.

[Norman]

16 minutes ago, eddie said:

When the archivists uncover DCFCFans' server and decode this thread, they will decide that my reply is more accurate than your original post.

Of course, Edward. It will be the Federal EU Internet Police rewriting history.

From the Superstate Beer Thread to Things That Annoy Me thread, including posts never made about national sovereignty and decentralised governments.

Things That Make Me Happy thread includes posts by @StivePesley and @GboroRam only. They include how much they love the EU army and the austerity measures currently in place. 

[maxjam]

39 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

None of those things are in any way exclusive to muslims. FGM in particular is more cultural than religious.

You should definitely stop making ignorant generalisations about religion as you'll just get posts removed under the rules

Instead try reading this interview. He's a muslim and more than happy to criticise their community where criticism is valid, rather than born through prejudice. As he says - the extremist muslims and the far right both hate him - so he must be doing something right

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/03/nazir-afzal-there-is-no-religious-basis-for-the-abuse-in-rotherham

Thats an old Guardian article and dammit, I said I was going to leave this conversation but I have to counter with these;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/21/observer-view-child-grooming-gangs-huddersfield

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/rotherham-grooming-gang-sexual-abuse-muslim-islamist-racism-white-girls-religious-extremism-a8261831.html

There is a discussion to be had that isn't taking place, as one of the articles states, 'grooming gangs are not like paedophile rings' and shouldn't be treated as such.  Until we start admitting that there is an underlying factor and educating potential perpetrators and victims the likes of Tommy Robinson will never go away.

[MaltRam]

47 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

None of those things are in any way exclusive to muslims. FGM in particular is more cultural than religious.

You should definitely stop making ignorant generalisations about religion as you'll just get posts removed under the rules

Instead try reading this interview. He's a muslim and more than happy to criticise their community where criticism is valid, rather than born through prejudice. As he says - the extremist muslims and the far right both hate him - so he must be doing something right

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/03/nazir-afzal-there-is-no-religious-basis-for-the-abuse-in-rotherham

It's like talking to a wall. I'm out.

[eddie]

18 minutes ago, Norman said:

Of course, Edward. It will be the Federal EU Internet Police rewriting history.

From the Superstate Beer Thread to Things That Annoy Me thread, including posts never made about national sovereignty and decentralised governments.

Things That Make Me Happy thread includes posts by @StivePesley and @GboroRam only. They include how much they love the EU army and the austerity measures currently in place. 

You keep forecasting the demise of the EU, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Similarly, some keep suggesting that the 'far right' will rise in Europe. The recent election seems to indicate that the only place the 'far right' has done well is in England.

The ongoing Brexit tripe seems to have done pretty well - for Europe.

[GboroRam]

1 hour ago, Norman said:

I have a forecast.

40 years from now, we live in an undemocratic superstate.

It has its own army.

It's decided to take on China. In the name of trade and economics.

It has a superiority and moral complex.

It is unaccountable. 

The economics are controlled by an appointed board. One that has been pro-austerity for 50 years. It has crippled many countries.

We have been forced or 'manipulated' into taking the Euro. Our finances are therefore controlled by an appointed board. We can't control our own economy.

We can't leave, we don't have a say, we can't stop it.

No thanks.

The only way we do that is if we don't have a veto. We'd have to leave, crash, and rejoin without the option of a veto for any possibility of that happening. 

Oh. Maybe it's not as far fetched as I imagined. 

[Highgate]

19 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

One thing I think it's incredibly important to stress is that polls are not elections. Petitions are not elections. Marches are not elections. We live in unusual times with silent majorities who despair of the liberal media leading to the polls frequently being found out (eg Aussie elections, Brexit, Trump, Italy). I think if you have a referendum where you tell the people that it's our choice and MPs will implement what we decide, then that has to be implemented. Call me old-fashioned. It's what pretty much every MP said after the vote, but unfortunately most of them have changed their tune. Either Brexiteers won't bother voting ever again or there'll be a massive restructuring in British politics. I hope it's the latter.

Yes, is absolutely true that polls aren't elections and should be treated with suspicion. But that doesn't alter my point that if you did somehow know that public opinion had changed (or that the design of the referendum itself was flawed) would you then be correct in insisting on implementing the results of the referendum?  Hypothetically speaking.  If public opinion is unaltered then it will be expressed in the second referendum too....and the outcome will be the same.