The Politics Thread 2019

[eddie]

26 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Is the future rosey for the EU. In my opinion it isn’t.  

We will never get the opportunity to leave again. 

This is it. 

Stay in because we are frightened of short term pain .

No leave and build a better future. 

If the 'short-term pain' is 'for the rest of my life', you are damned sure I am going to fight against it with everything I have. Even the government's own figures have GDP declining by more than 10% in fifteen years time compared to staying in the EU.

In 15 years time, I shall be in my 80s, and I'm supposed to accept that as 'short-term pain'?

[GboroRam]

2 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Improving summers is that down to pollution and global warming maybe the EU can sort it out then. 

Like they have started with the Paris agreement? Whether or not it's enough is a matter of opinion, but clearly there's some efforts being made.

[Wolfie]

4 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Corby by thinks the country is in a right mess.

Just listen to PMQs

Improving summers is that down to pollution and global warming maybe the EU can sort it out then. 

He's the leader of the opposition. He's not going to stand there, applaud and say everything's rosy, is he?!

[GboroRam]

5 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Corby by thinks the country is in a right mess.

Do you agree, therefore siding with Jeremy Corbyn?
Or do you disagree, therefore agreeing that the EU isn't the cause of the country being "in a right mess"?

[Wolfie]

13 minutes ago, Curtains said:

We are not prosperous according to Jeremy 

I don't care what Jeremy says. YOU said we haven't had prosperity for decades & I'm curious to know when you think we were better off than we are now.

[G STAR RAM]

6 minutes ago, eddie said:

If the 'short-term pain' is 'for the rest of my life', you are damned sure I am going to fight against it with everything I have. Even the government's own figures have GDP declining by more than 10% in fifteen years time compared to staying in the EU.

In 15 years time, I shall be in my 80s, and I'm supposed to accept that as 'short-term pain'?

GDP predictions for 15 years time are going to be about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

They struggle to get predictions right for 6 months time when all variables are known so how can they possibly predict 15 years in advance with so many unknowns?

[McRamFan]

16 minutes ago, Needless said:

Fair point. 

Is that all there is to it though? Do you think there is any reason at all for the muslim communities in this country to have look at themselves?

All societies have extremists.  All societies are responsible for the actions of that society, in context to how they portray themselves to the rest of society.

If we are expecting Muslims to look at their communities actions, then the other communities should look at themselves as well.

[eddie]

21 minutes ago, maxjam said:

 

Thanks @G STAR RAM there is indeed a huge difference between hate and concern.  However as @eddie demonstrates confusing the two leads to insinuations of racism which does prevent some people from speaking up.

Like I said, a blatantly untrue false dichotomy makes understanding your motives or what you seem at first glance to be advocating open to misinterpretation. I can only conclude that you delight in obfuscation - or have a very specific reason for taking that particular direction in your argument.

[eddie]

10 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

GDP predictions for 15 years time are going to be about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

They struggle to get predictions right for 6 months time when all variables are known so how can they possibly predict 15 years in advance with so many unknowns?

I cannot fault your faith - especially when it's all you have left.

Everyone join me in offering thoughts and prayers for our post-Brexit economy.

[MaltRam]

1 minute ago, McRamFan said:

All societies have extremists.  All societies are responsible for the actions of that society, in context to how they portray themselves to the rest of society.

If we are expecting Muslims to look at their communities actions, then the other communities should look at themselves as well.

Whataboutery and a cop out.

[Wolfie]

27 minutes ago, eddie said:

If the 'short-term pain' is 'for the rest of my life', you are damned sure I am going to fight against it with everything I have. Even the government's own figures have GDP declining by more than 10% in fifteen years time compared to staying in the EU.

In 15 years time, I shall be in my 80s, and I'm supposed to accept that as 'short-term pain'?

If we can leave with a deal, the forecast is 3.9% smaller economy than inside the EU.

Which is why I want to leave with a deal. I'd definitely go for cancelling Brexit over no-deal.

[McRamFan]

4 minutes ago, Needless said:

Whataboutery and a cop out.

So what is your answer?? You asked a question, you got an answer, get over the fact you didn't like it.  As for it being hypocrisy, you don't know me.

[maxjam]

12 minutes ago, eddie said:

Like I said, a blatantly untrue false dichotomy makes understanding your motives or what you seem at first glance to be advocating open to misinterpretation. I can only conclude that you delight in obfuscation - or have a very specific reason for taking that particular direction in your argument.

I think I've been pretty clear with my arguments that the left is moving further to the left which is negatively affecting free speech and censorship.  There is nothing racist or hateful in anything I've said - anything else you read into it is of your own making.

A big study was done in America on the political divide by the Pew Research Center, it shows that whilst the right has moved slightly to the right, the left has shifted significantly to the left.  IIRC I posted a Tim Pool video earlier in this thread who also interprets the research data;

https://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/the-partisan-divide-on-political-values-grows-even-wider/

Admittedly the data is American, but social media is worldwide and there are parallels with UK politics.

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

No I'm saying the debate is biased one way.  People can demand you respect their chosen pronoun or belief that they are and elf or a reincarnated dragon which is fair enough but if you err on the side of science and suggest its all nonsense you'll get shouted down and silenced.

You know that most people don't feel the need to get outraged about this stuff, and don't have any compulsion to get into an argument about what is essentially another person's personal choice. If you can't see the cause and effect here then I can't help you.

If people want to self-identify as *insert humorous example here* then good luck to them. They aren't bothering me

If other people want to inexplicably start an argument about it and then complain they are "being silenced" when someone calls them a berk for it then good luck to them too. They are wasting their lives

[eddie]

1 minute ago, Wolfie said:

If we can leave with a deal, the forecast is 3.9% smaller economy than inside the EU.

Which is why I want to leave with a deal. I'd definitely go for cancelling Brexit over no-deal.

I've said from day 1 that I would have accepted the referendum result under the terms which the Brexit-favouring politicians were advocating (the reasonable ones, not the pie-in-the-sky 'have your cake and eat it' advocates like the idiotic Boris Johnson) - i.e. a mutually-negotiated and accepted deal. The fact that 'the deal' wasn't acceptable to the DUP is no concern of mine - the fact that the hard right hedge-fund owners of the Tory party then used that as the excuse to advocate a 'no deal' policy as their principal aim, basically just walking away does concern me somewhat, because that approach would be disastrous for a large proportion of our population. The fact that it would be an absolute boon for the financiers and hedge-fund operatives seems to indicate to me that their motives are selfish as opposed to altruistic.

Another big concern I now have is that something like 30 % of the population are seemingly convinced that, despite all the forecasts and the warnings, leaving without a deal at any cost is preferable to remaining in the EU. The automatic denial and decrying of any economic warnings or forecasts, as @G STAR RAM has done earlier on within this thread, fits with the misinformation and outright tripe uttered by the likes of Gove in 2016 ("We have heard enough from experts"). I suspect, for precisely the same reasons, that he is a climate change denier - and if not, why not?

My biggest concern, though, is that I am genuinely worried that the cry of the internet revolution is "My ignorance is just as valid as your expertise".

I seem to have digressed a bit.

[FindernRam]

Just curious has this debate some of it thoughtful, some vitriolic, nearly 1800 posts caused anyone to actually change their mind about anything?

I suspect not.

As a race we are incredibly entrenched in our views, which is why a second referendum or even a general election is unlikely to change anything!

I'm off for a digestive sandwich and rue the hours lost forever by reading this thread. 

[maxjam]

12 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

You know that most people don't feel the need to get outraged about this stuff, and don't have any compulsion to get into an argument about what is essentially another person's personal choice. If you can't see the cause and effect here then I can't help you.

If people want to self-identify as *insert humorous example here* then good luck to them. They aren't bothering me

If other people want to inexplicably start an argument about it and then complain they are "being silenced" when someone calls them a berk for it then good luck to them too. They are wasting their lives

Until it starts entering the mainstream such as several recent high profile sporting controversies for example.

More importantly however, and for the benefit of @eddie its the free speech/censorship angle that concerns me the most.  There is a debate to be had but if one side can casually shout transphobic and shut down discussion its not going to end well.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/even-our-mps-are-afraid-of-the-transgender-mob/

[G STAR RAM]

8 minutes ago, eddie said:

Another big concern I now have is that something like 30 % of the population are seemingly convinced that, despite all the forecasts and the warnings, leaving without a deal at any cost is preferable to remaining in the EU. The automatic denial and decrying of any economic warnings or forecasts, as @G STAR RAM has done earlier on within this thread, fits with the misinformation and outright tripe uttered by the likes of Gove in 2016 ("We have heard enough from experts"). I suspect, for precisely the same reasons, that he is a climate change denier - and if not, why not?

There is no denial or decrying of the economic predictions or forecasts.

Give me some evidence that shows I should heavily rely on the government predictions and you never know, you may even persuade me to think otherwise.

The only recently predictions I am going on are the mass unemployment and required emergency budget if we voted Leave.

Such wildly incorrect predictions made just months before the vote. If they are so wildly wrong over a period of months why should I pay any attention to predictions made 15 years in advance?  Especially with so many unknowns variables.

This isn't me saying my ignorance is better than their 'expertise', this is me asking for evidence to back up their expertise.

[Curtains]

1 hour ago, Wolfie said:

I don't care what Jeremy says. YOU said we haven't had prosperity for decades & I'm curious to know when you think we were better off than we are now.

Blair before the crash 

[GboroRam]

4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Such wildly incorrect predictions made just months before the vote. If they are so wildly wrong over a period of months why should I pay any attention to predictions made 15 years in advance?  Especially with so many unknowns variables.

Because the BoE's actions were what prevented the need for the emergency budget. They:

Reduced the forecast, cutting it by 2.5% - the biggest ever drop
Cut the bank rate to 0.25%
Restarted the quantitative easing asset purchase programme
Spent £60bn on bonds and £10bn on corporate bonds
Funded commercial banks at the new rates on condition they didn't cut back on lending
Gave a signal they may reduce interest rates and/or buy more bonds if required

The BoE made a prediction and fought to stop the fallout. It doesn't mean that the downsides weren't real - just it cost a lot to stop the bus careering off the road.