The Politics Thread 2019

[maxjam]

2 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

Derby as ever the contrarian! Last year when Brexit seemed under control UKIP was wiped out in the local elections (as they no longer had a purpose) but somehow Derby was the only place were UKIP made gains!

If there's one thing I've learned in 40 years that will never change, its to always expect the unexpected with Derby ?

[BaaLocks]

57 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Difficult to say without all the facts, the Guardian was reporting low voter turnout affecting the Tories so maybe the Lib Dems are winning by default as angry Tory voters can't quite bring themselves to vote for UKIP/Brexit Party and just stayed away. 

The whole thing is a mess and local elections on ever muddy the waters, it wouldn't be the first time the Lib Dems have been given false hope by them!

I'm not sure - not saying you're wrong but I'm not sure.

Love the way Terry May is saying 'we had a bad night but so did Labour'. Labour lost around 7% of their councils (admittedly they had about half the amount of the Tories going in) whereas the Cons lost more than a quarter.

Lib Dems had only two things to offer going in - one being they have limited association to the disaster that has been the Brexit negotiations and the second is that they are the major vocal advocates of a second referendum. I don't say that this means everyone should now have a second referendum (fwiw - I don't think we should) but coupled with the poor showing for UKIP I would say it is a strong statement that this 'let's just get on with Brexit and get it done' schpeel that May keeps coming out with is clearly not a fair representation of the view of a large part of the nation.

[Stive Pesley]

4 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

 I would say it is a strong statement that this 'let's just get on with Brexit and get it done' schpeel that May keeps coming out with is clearly not a fair representation of the view of a large part of the nation.

It's as if the country is almost split 50/50 on the issue ?

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

Love the way Terry May is saying 'we had a bad night but so did Labour'. Labour lost around 7% of their councils (admittedly they had about half the amount of the Tories going in) whereas the Cons lost more than a quarter.

But most of the seats contested yesterday were ones held by the Tories (just the way election cycle has worked out), so they were always going to lose more. National share of the vote is 28% for both Tories and Labour.

Quote

Lib Dems had only two things to offer going in - one being they have limited association to the disaster that has been the Brexit negotiations and the second is that they are the major vocal advocates of a second referendum. I don't say that this means everyone should now have a second referendum (fwiw - I don't think we should) but coupled with the poor showing for UKIP I would say it is a strong statement that this 'let's just get on with Brexit and get it done' schpeel that May keeps coming out with is clearly not a fair representation of the view of a large part of the nation.

UKIP was a mainstream party back in 2015 when these seats were last up for election. Look what they are now & you can't draw conclusions from their poor showing yesterday.

Only 19% share for the LibDems is hardly a ringing endorsement for their second referendum policy either.

 

Always dangerous making national conclusions from local elections. Far too many issues come into play.

[Curtains]

2 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

I'm not sure - not saying you're wrong but I'm not sure.

Love the way Terry May is saying 'we had a bad night but so did Labour'. Labour lost around 7% of their councils (admittedly they had about half the amount of the Tories going in) whereas the Cons lost more than a quarter.

Lib Dems had only two things to offer going in - one being they have limited association to the disaster that has been the Brexit negotiations and the second is that they are the major vocal advocates of a second referendum. I don't say that this means everyone should now have a second referendum (fwiw - I don't think we should) but coupled with the poor showing for UKIP I would say it is a strong statement that this 'let's just get on with Brexit and get it done' schpeel that May keeps coming out with is clearly not a fair representation of the view of a large part of the nation.

You can’t dress it up .

Bad night for Labour and Tories 

Labour should be winning seats off the Tories as the Tories are in disarray over Brexit plus Tories had loads more Seats to lose. .

Tories still have the most seats of any party 

[Archied]

11 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

If the only party that is actively advocating a second referendum saw a 118% increase in the number of councils won in the local elections would that serve as an indicator that many are not just taking the view that Brexit means Brexit, that many are not feeling betrayed by the suggestion of being given the chance to restate their opinion now that more is know? Would that send a signal in any way? Coz that's what just happened to the Lib Dems.

Erm ,, that’s why I asked before any results ,, hindsight spin , ok so by that measure you feel that if the brexit advocating parties swamp the euro elections you will accept the referendum result?

[BaaLocks]

19 hours ago, Curtains said:

You can’t dress it up .

Bad night for Labour and Tories 

Labour should be winning seats off the Tories as the Tories are in disarray over Brexit plus Tories had loads more Seats to lose. .

Tories still have the most seats of any party 

That's my point - Terry May did try to dress it up. Two messages she took from it were 'Labour also had a bad night' and 'the message is get on with Brexit'. Maybe the message was something more different, something like a statement of being sick of old fashioned dualisitic politics or tired of the mess all sides have made of Brexit (both getting us into it and then not getting us out of it). I'm not saying this as a red good, blue bad rant but more as an observation of how entrenched and pathetic politicians are - even when the message is clear they can only choose to interpret it from their own perspective.

[maxjam]

3 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

That's my point - Terry May did try to dress it up. Two messages she took from it were 'Labour also had a bad night' and 'the message is get on with Brexit'. Maybe the message was something more different, something like a statement of being sick of old fashioned dualisitic politics or tired of the mess all sides have made of Brexit (both getting us into it and then not getting us out of it). I'm not saying this as a red good, blue bad rant but more as an observation of how entrenched and pathetic politicians are - even when the message is clear they can only choose to interpret it from their own perspective.

The only thing all Labour and Tories have done throughout the Brexit debacle is try to ensure the status quo continues ?

[BaaLocks]

12 hours ago, Archied said:

Erm ,, that’s why I asked before any results ,, hindsight spin , ok so by that measure you feel that if the brexit advocating parties swamp the euro elections you will accept the referendum result?

But that's a large part of the problem - with the exception of UKIP and the Lib Dems there are no 'Brexit Parties' (I don't count The Change Party and the rather obvious Brexit party). Tories are cleaved on it and Labour remain ambiguous - meaning it's hard to vote against or for their position on Brexit as you don't really have anything to vote against. I believe the swing in vote was more a reaction to old style politics than one of support or opposition of Brexit and I don't see how the Euro elections can be anything other. I certainly won't be advocating a second referendum based on Farage getting less than 52% of the vote.

[BaaLocks]

Just now, maxjam said:

The only thing all Labour and Tories have done throughout the Brexit debacle is try to ensure the status quo continues ?

Or see it as a opportunity for posturing and positioning. Sadly, most politicians have shown themselves to be dinosaurs entrenched in an archaic way of maneouvering - we have found ourselves unable to move forward in the same way as Northern Ireland and the States has found themselves mired and hamstrung by the very core of their 'constitutions'. I think they have a short time to fix it, otherwise they will get left behind - I do fear a little what might come along to replace them however.

[SillyBilly]

On 03/05/2019 at 12:19, BaaLocks said:

If the only party that is actively advocating a second referendum saw a 118% increase in the number of councils won in the local elections would that serve as an indicator that many are not just taking the view that Brexit means Brexit, that many are not feeling betrayed by the suggestion of being given the chance to restate their opinion now that more is know? Would that send a signal in any way? Coz that's what just happened to the Lib Dems.

Think you are getting a little bit too excited IMO.

72% turnout on a binary matter is not a definitive decision supposedly but on a turnout of 30% voting on issues including bin collection...well, proof positive that we must stay in the EU according to some! There is an EU election later this month, perhaps there is an elephant in room there when the party set to win that is barely a few weeks old. That will be absolutely extraordinary if it happens.

For most of my adult life I've voted Lib Dem in the locals and Tory at a general election. I was pretty irritated with Cable after the vote when he claimed every vote for the Lib Dems was a vote to cancel Brexit. For sure, while many will have voted for those reasons some of us were voting on the quality of our local councillors, mine here down South are excellent as are most Lib Dems at a grass roots level IMO and I see no reason to turf them out. And I will be voting the Brexit Party later in May. If there was a GE tomorrow there is no way in hell I'd vote Conservative and I think the locals show the mood of many like me. 

Given UKIP was standing in 1 in 6 wards and is a party that basically died when Farage left it, I daresay there was barely anything on the ballot paper in the locals for any Brexiteer to get behind if they even wanted to do. Fortunately there is later this month and I think the message will be pretty clear.

[eddie]

A couple of interesting statistics...

Actually, none are interesting. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[BaaLocks]

37 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

72% turnout on a binary matter is not a definitive decision supposedly but on a turnout of 30% voting on issues including bin collection...well, proof positive that we must stay in the EU according to some!

Who are these some you refer to?

[SillyBilly]

21 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Who are these some you refer to?

The people that work for me (all of whom are Remainers). I am the only Leaver in my business. Anecdotally that is representative enough for me, short of surveying the high street!

[GboroRam]

I don't think it shows anything, but if you want to read anything into the local elections, this is the only message I can see. Suggestions that the vote is a message to "get on with brexit" don't hold sway to me. 

[Archied]

3 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

But that's a large part of the problem - with the exception of UKIP and the Lib Dems there are no 'Brexit Parties' (I don't count The Change Party and the rather obvious Brexit party). Tories are cleaved on it and Labour remain ambiguous - meaning it's hard to vote against or for their position on Brexit as you don't really have anything to vote against. I believe the swing in vote was more a reaction to old style politics than one of support or opposition of Brexit and I don't see how the Euro elections can be anything other. I certainly won't be advocating a second referendum based on Farage getting less than 52% of the vote.

Fair play , I read your meaning wrongly , my big frustration is politicians and supporters on both sides twisting everything to suit their arguments  after any event ,the art of never giving a straight answer on anything has reached unbelievable heights 

[Officer]

On 03/05/2019 at 14:02, StivePesley said:

It's as if the country is almost split 50/50 on the issue ?

A sad state of affairs when one side lied with the help of dodgy and Russian money and now the gullible are so intransigent to even admit they made a mistake.

What did leavers actually vote for?

1. Curvy bananas

2. That despicable breaking point poster

3. Bendy buses

4. To take back sovereignty (never realised we lost it)

The list of stupid reasons is endless. But, keep reading the Mail, Sun and the Torygraph. Vote tory! Good old chaps.

[eddie]

The only good thing to come out of the entire fiasco is the complete and utter disintegration of the Tory party, probably for an entire generation.

[Rev]

55 minutes ago, eddie said:

The only good thing to come out of the entire fiasco is the complete and utter disintegration of the Tory party, probably for an entire generation.

People have thought the same ever since the creation of the Labour party, yet still they exist and somehow persuade working class people to vote for them, or at the least not vote against them.

 

[Day]

1 minute ago, reveldevil said:

People have thought the same ever since the creation of the Labour party, yet still they exist and somehow persuade working class people to vote for them, or at the least not vote against them.

Doing something right up here, bit odd for a town like this but there you go.