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Where would we finish in the Premier League?


Kernow

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At the moment you'd probably finish bottom (or second bottom the way this season is panning out) on about 26-28 points. It sounds pessimistic, but the last two seasons Boro beat Man City, Man U and drew but ultimately lost on about half an hour of penalties to Liverpool, getting beat  by Everton and Arsenal. We also beat Sunderland, but that was only a friendly. However sides from the championship usually raise their game against Prem opposition and if we had just thrust that side we had then into the Prem for a 38 game season then we'd have probably finished with much the same as I predict you would.

However this answer can't be taken as the likely eventuality if you were to be promoted this year, because if you did you would undoubtably strengthen in the summer and would be able to attract decent players with the lure of Prem footy and more money. In which case who knows? 17th is still a success, but it would certainly be possible to finish above that if you were canny enough.

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10 hours ago, Kernow said:

If you've been a reader of this forum for a considerable length of time, you've probably seen all kinds of comments about our Premier League credentials. Comments such as we're nowhere near good enough, is there any point in winning promotion as we'd just come back down, I'd rather win the majority of games but stay in the Championship rather than lose most weeks in the PL... blah blah blah.

Luckily for you, o faithful readers, I am here with proof of where exactly we would finish if we were a PL side. I have collected a sample of data, which are the results from the PL teams we have played this season. There is a team from each 'third' of the PL. We have Liverpool in the top third, West Brom in the second third and Leicester from the bottom third. A win, a draw and a loss means the equivalent of 4 points from three games. You don't need to do any maths because fortunately my phone has a calculator and I can tell you that it equates to 1.33 recurring points per game - over a 38 game season that's 50 points.

So there we have it. We would finish with 50 points in the PL, meaning we would finish either 10th or 11th depending on our goal difference compared to Chelsea. The scientific process of this study makes the results undisputed and it is quite clear that we would not only survive in the PL, but thrive. What's all the moaning about?

I know you're not really being serious but, where would your calculator put Lincoln if they were in the championship? 

Football has very little to do with science.

I'd say bottom 6. 

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10 hours ago, Kernow said:

If you've been a reader of this forum for a considerable length of time, you've probably seen all kinds of comments about our Premier League credentials. Comments such as we're nowhere near good enough, is there any point in winning promotion as we'd just come back down, I'd rather win the majority of games but stay in the Championship rather than lose most weeks in the PL... blah blah blah.

Luckily for you, o faithful readers, I am here with proof of where exactly we would finish if we were a PL side. I have collected a sample of data, which are the results from the PL teams we have played this season. There is a team from each 'third' of the PL. We have Liverpool in the top third, West Brom in the second third and Leicester from the bottom third. A win, a draw and a loss means the equivalent of 4 points from three games. You don't need to do any maths because fortunately my phone has a calculator and I can tell you that it equates to 1.33 recurring points per game - over a 38 game season that's 50 points.

So there we have it. We would finish with 50 points in the PL, meaning we would finish either 10th or 11th depending on our goal difference compared to Chelsea. The scientific process of this study makes the results undisputed and it is quite clear that we would not only survive in the PL, but thrive. What's all the moaning about?

Can't fault the science. I think if you also add the 'manager worth talking about' factor in McClaren (I believe he got more onscreen minutes than most of our players last night) then we are absolute box office certainties for a great season in the Prem. 

We've just got to get there!

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14 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

With our current XI as it is? Bottom, with about nine points.

Haha!

seriously tho I think we would finish in the bottom 3 with our current squad. We were short of options from the bench on Friday, and the squad would certainly need strengthening if we were to get into the prem.

altho we have already far more quality than we had in that dreadful 2007/8 season

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18 hours ago, Millenniumram said:

With Hughes and Thorne 14th

Without Hughes or Thorne last with 5 points

Stop it that's too honest ... But you did leave Tom Ince out and he cuts it big time. .. I would beg to differ therefore. With Hughes, Thorne AND Ince .... 10th and thinking of Europe the next season. ... Dare to dream 

then you think of those dire games where we stand off teams and pass sideways across the back and you wonder if we'd even get a point. Football bloody hell.

 

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We won't be able to survive in the Premier without either a fast goalscorer up front or a combative midfield. 

Currently we have neither.

Even the likes of Bournemouth, Middlesborough and Burnley would make mincemeat of us 

Maybe we could find these in the close season if we got promoted.  Given that the play offs look our best chance I'm not sure that sounds realistic.

How many of the current squad do we believe are capable of playing at the Premier level ?

Carson, Baird (for a season or so) , possibly Keogh , Will, possibly Johnson, Thorne (if he comes back), Ince,  possibly Martin (but not mobile enough ?). Not sure I could say any of the others are Premier players in the making. For me thats a definite 3 of our current squad who will not look out of place. But thats all.

So I can't see many of the current team making the transition, and yet we need at least two thirds of them to be able to do so. And its not as if we have some junior players knocking on the door.

We have a really good team in the championship, and I enjoy watching them. In my view we are still a very long way away from having a team capable of surviving in the Premier, and I am pretty sure I would not enjoy watching that unfold if we happened to get promotion.

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4 hours ago, BobbyD said:

We won't be able to survive in the Premier without either a fast goalscorer up front or a combative midfield. 

Currently we have neither.

Even the likes of Bournemouth, Middlesborough and Burnley would make mincemeat of us 

Maybe we could find these in the close season if we got promoted.  Given that the play offs look our best chance I'm not sure that sounds realistic.

How many of the current squad do we believe are capable of playing at the Premier level ?

Carson, Baird (for a season or so) , possibly Keogh , Will, possibly Johnson, Thorne (if he comes back), Ince,  possibly Martin (but not mobile enough ?). Not sure I could say any of the others are Premier players in the making. For me thats a definite 3 of our current squad who will not look out of place. But thats all.

So I can't see many of the current team making the transition, and yet we need at least two thirds of them to be able to do so. And its not as if we have some junior players knocking on the door.

We have a really good team in the championship, and I enjoy watching them. In my view we are still a very long way away from having a team capable of surviving in the Premier, and I am pretty sure I would not enjoy watching that unfold if we happened to get promotion.

Think your not too far off the mark,not sure Ince would be effective in top flight football ,Carson ,Hughes,Thorne definitely good enough.Keogh prob good enouth,and Olson on last nights performance.Would have to do a southampton and spend big and buy wisely to secure top flight status.Enjoying the footie at the moment but should we go up i agree a clear out would be needed.

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I really really really really hate the myth that everyone needs someone who can run fast up front.

Vydra can run fast. Vydra can score goals at this level. Murray and Wood are in the top 5 top scorers in the Championship.

In the Premier League Harry Kane and Diego Costa and Zlatan

Our best strikers recently? Hulse, Howard, Martin.

Kuqi was better than Moore.

It's football not racing.

On the list of players good/not good enough for the PL where would you have Hendrick and Grant last year? Lingard the year before? 

Diego Forlan scored 37 in 80 and 54 in 106 either side of his time in the Premier League. He then scored 74 more La Liga goals in 134 games. Surely that would indicate he's good enough for the PL. But Danny Graham has scored nearly twice as many Premier League goals. Danny Graham.

There's no player requirement for the Premier League. It's has Charlie Adam and David Silva, Lee Catermole and Juan Mata. Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe. 

Just worry what works and what's good enough for Derby. First we need to get out this league. 

At the end of day we just played Wes Morgan and Robert Huth. Premier League champions who just qualified from the group stage of the Champions League. 

Teams win games not players. 

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Hard to compare so shouldn't even be done...

I'm not sure are Hull or Sunderland (or pointwise Crystal Palace) really better than us or any of the top Championship teams. Current Newcastle wouldn't get relegated, they are much better team than last season.

Small differences and we see concrete results of it in these FA cup rounds.

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14 hours ago, Alpha said:

I really really really really hate the myth that everyone needs someone who can run fast up front.

Tell me a successful premier team which recently got promoted and stayed up without any pace up front  ? Nobody has said that running fast is what is required - its speed allied to footballing ability, including finishing. It would be illogical to put GBs 100 metre runners in a football  team as you well know. If you think that pace is not important then I'm afraid you are in a very small minority.

Vydra can run fast. Vydra can score goals at this level. Murray and Wood are in the top 5 top scorers in the Championship.

We are talking about success in the Premier, not the championship. Vydra and Murray have been unable to succeed in the Premier. Jurys out on Wood .

In the Premier League Harry Kane and Diego Costa and Zlatan

All with fast footballers around them. And we are talking about Derby County - we cannot afford or attract £70m footballers to PP. 

Our best strikers recently? Hulse, Howard, Martin.

How many goals did Howard or Hulse score in the Premier ? 

Kuqi was better than Moore.

No logic at all to that comment

It's football not racing.

Agreed

On the list of players good/not good enough for the PL where would you have Hendrick and Grant last year? Lingard the year before? 

We are talking about the current Rams squad

Diego Forlan scored 37 in 80 and 54 in 106 either side of his time in the Premier League. He then scored 74 more La Liga goals in 134 games. Surely that would indicate he's good enough for the PL. But Danny Graham has scored nearly twice as many Premier League goals. Danny Graham.

Don't understand the relevance of this. Thought we were talking about the Rams squad ? 

There's no player requirement for the Premier League. It's has Charlie Adam and David Silva, Lee Catermole and Juan Mata. Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe. 

Once more, which of Derby's current players could cut it in the Premier, in your opinion ?

Just worry what works and what's good enough for Derby. First we need to get out this league. 

Not for me. We need to know we have a fighting chance of staying up when we get there. I suspect the club owner feels the same way too, from what I have heard, plus the vast majority of Rams fans I talk to and sit with every other week. Its about sustainability, not short term glory. 

At the end of day we just played Wes Morgan and Robert Huth. Premier League champions who just qualified from the group stage of the Champions League. 

Yes, the same team with two of the fastest footballers in the Premier  in Vardy and Mahrez who got them there

Teams win games not players. 

Of course they do. And ideally teams that have been built over some time, not overnight, which you are advocating

So the question is, if we got promoted with our current team, would we stay up ? 

And which players do you think, out of the current squad, are capable of keeping us up ?

Come on Alpha, generally respect your views but how about putting your response to the question on the block instead of just responding to and disagreeing with others ?

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