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Odds on the next Derby County manager


Ambitious

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If we want to settle the debate around whether or not we need someone 'experienced' or not should McClaren leave, I have just received word from @TrueLou asking me to post this, cos she can't be arsed. Her research on the topic:

Watford- Jokanovic
8 years manager- 46 years old- 0 yrs Champ exp

Bournemouth - Howe
7 years manager- 37 years old- 5 yrs Champ exp

Middlesbrough - Karanka
1 year manager- 41 years old- 0 yr Champ exp

Norwich - Neil
2 years manager- 33 years old- 0 yr Champ exp

Ipswich - McCarthy
23 years manager- 56 years old- shitloads of Champ exp (direct quote, she got lazy here I think?)

Brentford - Warburton
2 years manage- 52 years old- 2 yr Champ exp

Wolves - Jackett
19 years manager- 53 years old- 2 yr Champ exp

Blackburn - Bowyer
2 years manager- 43 years old- 2 yr Champ exp

Charlton - Luzon
14 years manager- 39 years old- 0 yr Champ exp

Birmingham - Rowett
3 years manager- 41 years old- 0 yr Champ exp

Forest - Freedman
4 years manager- 40 years old- 4 years Champ exp

Cardiff - Slade
21 years manager - 54 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Wednesday - Gray
12 years manager - 55 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Leeds - Redfearn
2 years manager - 49 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Hudderfield - Powell
4 years manager - 45 years old - 2 yrs Champ exp

Fulham - Symons
6 months manager - 44 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Bolton - Lennon
5 years manager - 43 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Reading - Clarke
3 yrs manager - 51 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Brighton - Hughton
6 yrs manager - 56 years old - 1 yr Champ exp

Rotherham - Evans
21 years manager - 52 years old - 0 yr Champ exp

Millwall - no permanent manager

Wigan - Caldwell
0 yrs manager - 33 years old - 0 yrs Champ exp

Blackpool - Clark
7 yrs manager - 42 years old - 2 yrs Champ exp 

 

So experienced managers sorta don't get a look in here. Young and talented coaches are the ones doing well. Top 4 especially.

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I'm querying Truelou's data. Warburton has only managed this season. Jackett has managed at Swansea (?) and definitely Millwall in the Championship. Hughton managed Newcastle, Birmingham and maybe Norwich, Powell was at Charlton and Howe has about 2 or 3 years combined.

lol

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I'm querying Truelou's data. Warburton has only managed this season. Jackett has managed at Swansea (?) and definitely Millwall in the Championship. Hughton managed Newcastle, Birmingham and maybe Norwich, Powell was at Charlton and Howe has about 2 or 3 years combined.

lol

I didn't bother checking it, that's the data I was given. The point remains roughly the same regardless.

To be fair, it depends how you count it. Warburton has 2 years when he took the majority of the season last year and has been in charge for a full year this year. A year and a half maybe but I'd be inclined to say 2 years is fair.

Double edit: I now realise what you mean, 2 years Champ experience. I should have checked before I posted it really. I can't imagine her research was extensive. Probably just a quick look.

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If the point is that you don't have to have experience to be coaching a team at the top then fair enough, but those stats also suggest that you don't have to have a lot of experience to be at the bottom either.  Or in the middle come to that.

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If the point is that you don't have to have experience to be coaching a team at the top then fair enough, but those stats also suggest that you don't have to have a lot of experience to be at the bottom either.  Or in the middle come to that.

​Her point is that you don't have to have experience in this league full stop. It's something of a cliche to get a manager that is "proven at this level" (as satirised in my member title) but this shows that it really makes no difference. What makes the difference is having a guy that is a good fit for your club. Hughton is the oldest manager in the league, and an experienced coach. But he isn't the right fit for Brighton's players at all. Russell Slade at Cardiff also. But in the same breath, the experience of Jackett works well because he's a good fit. 

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I'm querying Truelou's data. Warburton has only managed this season. Jackett has managed at Swansea (?) and definitely Millwall in the Championship. Hughton managed Newcastle, Birmingham and maybe Norwich, Powell was at Charlton and Howe has about 2 or 3 years combined.

lol

​You've made me look now Mostyn :(

It was a quick anaysis, I was interested to know just how many 'established' managers we've had in the Championship this year, I was a bit astounded by the number of managers who had no experience of this league at all, I thought 3 or 4 at the most off the top of my head.

I was looking at Championship experience only, Hughton has managed higher but not exactly had much success up there, same with Jackett, I woulnd't call either 'established' PL managers.

I just wanted to know, where an appointment is made of a manager with little or no experience in this league, is that an oddity or becoming the norm? I think it's becoming more accepted to put a less established manager in at this level. And I like this trend, I hope it continues.

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​You've made me look now Mostyn :(

It was a quick anaysis, I was interested to know just how many 'established' managers we've had in the Championship this year, I was a bit astounded by the number of managers who had no experience of this league at all, I thought 3 or 4 at the most off the top of my head.

I was looking at Championship experience only, Hughton has managed higher but not exactly had much success up there, same with Jackett, I woulnd't call either 'established' PL managers.

I just wanted to know, where an appointment is made of a manager with little or no experience in this league, is that an oddity or becoming the norm? I think it's becoming more accepted to put a less established manager in at this level. And I like this trend, I hope it continues.

​you're right, it is interesting that so many are at this level for the first time at the same time. Logic would say that all managers at some point have to become the new guy at whatever level, but it does show that nowadays there are no hard and fast rules. The old guard / establishment, if it existed once, is no longer. There were times when the same old managers would get job after job. But by the same token, there appear to be managers losing their jobs and dropping out of the game completely. It'd be an interesting read to see how many of the managers that have been in this league over the last 5 seasons are actually now unemployed. I'd guess it'd be an astonishing number.

As for recruiting, I'm not sure what it highlights. Is it chairmen/CEOs trying something different to get success? Is it financially driven? (ie recruiting/promoting from within cheaper?) Or, is football moving on?

I've always thought lots of football decisions are based on myth. One team has success with something, then everyone else tries to follow. Years ago it was Makelele and the DM role, in management it's copying the Swansea method etc.

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​you're right, it is interesting that so many are at this level for the first time at the same time. Logic would say that all managers at some point have to become the new guy at whatever level, but it does show that nowadays there are no hard and fast rules. The old guard / establishment, if it existed once, is no longer. There were times when the same old managers would get job after job. But by the same token, there appear to be managers losing their jobs and dropping out of the game completely. It'd be an interesting read to see how many of the managers that have been in this league over the last 5 seasons are actually now unemployed. I'd guess it'd be an astonishing number.

As for recruiting, I'm not sure what it highlights. Is it chairmen/CEOs trying something different to get success? Is it financially driven? (ie recruiting/promoting from within cheaper?) Or, is football moving on?

I've always thought lots of football decisions are based on myth. One team has success with something, then everyone else tries to follow. Years ago it was Makelele and the DM role, in management it's copying the Swansea method etc.

​Agreed on the desicions based on myth Mostyn. Some clubs try to emulate without thinking through whether that idea/model will fit within their own club. It appears to be deemed that if it works there it'll work here. Silliness. 

I would like to think that we're moving on, the managerial merry go round gets ridiculous at times. It takes a few brave souls to break the mould before attitudes begin to shift. I do have a lot of respect for clubs that have tried out an unproven manager and gained success with that, as it must be a huge decision to take the plunge. Out of interest how would you feel if Derby did that? I hope I would exercise the benefit of the doubt, I'd like to think I would, bit scary though.

And you've given me a new project, I love a project. So I did a bit of research on the Championship 10/11. A kind of 'where are they now' to see how many are on the dole. Shocked me to see only two out of the lot are managing at PL level this season, the rest lower, out of work or still in Champ, Boothroyd and Keane the exception to this. Proves how crazily difficult and fickle football management is:

10/11

Warnock - QPR - unemployed
Lambert - Norwich - unemployed
Rodgers - Swansea - now Liverpool
Jones - Cardiff - unemployed
McDermott - Leeds - unemployed
Davies - Forest - unemployed
Grayson - Leeds - now PNE
Laws/Howe - Laws unemployed/Howe now Bournemouth
Jackett - Millwall - now Wolves
Eriksson - Leicester - Shanghai
Pearson - Hull - Leicester
Mowbray - Boro - Coventry
Keane - Ipswich - Ireland
McKay - Watford - unemployed
Millen - Bristol City - assistant at Palace
Cotterill/Appleton - Portsmouth - Cotterill now Bristol City/Appleton now Oxford City
Robins - Barnsley - Ssausagehorpe
Boothroyd - Coventry - England U20s
Clough - Derby - Sheff Utd
Burley/Freedman - Palace - Burley now Apollon Limassol/Freedman at the dogs
Saunders - Doncaster - Crawley
Ferguson/Brown - PNE - Ferguson unemployed/Brown now Southend
Speed/Adams - Sheff Utd - Speed deceased/Adams unemployed
Baraclough/Knill - Ssausagehorpe - Baraclough now Motherwell/Knill unemployed

 

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​Agreed on the desicions based on myth Mostyn. Some clubs try to emulate without thinking through whether that idea/model will fit within their own club. It appears to be deemed that if it works there it'll work here. Silliness. 

I would like to think that we're moving on, the managerial merry go round gets ridiculous at times. It takes a few brave souls to break the mould before attitudes begin to shift. I do have a lot of respect for clubs that have tried out an unproven manager and gained success with that, as it must be a huge decision to take the plunge. Out of interest how would you feel if Derby did that? I hope I would exercise the benefit of the doubt, I'd like to think I would, bit scary though.

And you've given me a new project, I love a project. So I did a bit of research on the Championship 10/11. A kind of 'where are they now' to see how many are on the dole. Shocked me to see only two out of the lot are managing at PL level this season, the rest lower, out of work or still in Champ, Boothroyd and Keane the exception to this. Proves how crazily difficult and fickle football management is:

10/11

Warnock - QPR - unemployed
Lambert - Norwich - unemployed
Rodgers - Swansea - now Liverpool
Jones - Cardiff - unemployed
McDermott - Leeds - unemployed
Davies - Forest - unemployed
Grayson - Leeds - now PNE
Laws/Howe - Laws unemployed/Howe now Bournemouth
Jackett - Millwall - now Wolves
Eriksson - Leicester - Shanghai
Pearson - Hull - Leicester
Mowbray - Boro - Coventry
Keane - Ipswich - Ireland
McKay - Watford - unemployed
Millen - Bristol City - assistant at Palace
Cotterill/Appleton - Portsmouth - Cotterill now Bristol City/Appleton now Oxford City
Robins - Barnsley - Ssausagehorpe
Boothroyd - Coventry - England U20s
Clough - Derby - Sheff Utd
Burley/Freedman - Palace - Burley now Apollon Limassol/Freedman at the dogs
Saunders - Doncaster - Crawley
Ferguson/Brown - PNE - Ferguson unemployed/Brown now Southend
Speed/Adams - Sheff Utd - Speed deceased/Adams unemployed
Baraclough/Knill - Ssausagehorpe - Baraclough now Motherwell/Knill unemployed

 

Think you may have a typo there next to Davies- should it not read unemployABLE?

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Odds update:

Paul Clement in pole position now - 7/4 
Sean Dyche in second - 3/1
Mark Warburton in third - 5/1
A new name in Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink in fourth - 8/1
Eddie Howe, :huh:, completes the top 5 at 16/1 

Mean fk all. 

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Off lou's list, Mcdermott is now Arsenal chief scout, Knill is assistant at Northampton, and Laws is Radio Nottinghams version of Craig Ramage, so still in football, just not managing.

On a positive note, there has been an 200% increase in the amount of BME managers compared with before, so that's progress.

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Is the fact that Ancellotti is likely to move from Madrid this summer the reason why Clement is being linked with us?

Or people guess anything. Odds mean fk all though. 

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