ariotofmyown

To summarise - one death is a tragedy. 127,191 deaths is a statistic.

Probably worth remembering that 10s of 1000s of people have died through Covid and it's left lots of people in grief, including people on this thread. Of the 30 or so people I know who have had it, of them have been left with long term issues (asthma and quarter of lung usage instead). I know a few people who have lost people too.
I know you and others are not heartless by any means, but possibly worth watching your language when posting on this subject. Covid deaths are very real for some people and they could easily get hurt/emotional to read posts saying it's all hype, or profiteering by big companies.
I'm no lover of big business, but recognise that the logisitcs infrastructures built up by the likes of Amazon and the food industry have been pretty useful over the last year. I also appreciate that companies like Netflix have been able to keep us entertained. They aren't all bad.
 

Probably worth remembering that 10s of 1000s of people have died through Covid and it's left lots of people in grief, including people on this thread. Of the 30 or so people I know who have had it, of them have been left with long term issues (asthma and quarter of lung usage instead). I know a few people who have lost people too.
I know you and others are not heartless by any means, but possibly worth watching your language when posting on this subject. Covid deaths are very real for some people and they could easily get hurt/emotional to read posts saying it's all hype, or profiteering by big companies.
I'm no lover of big business, but recognise that the logisitcs infrastructures built up by the likes of Amazon and the food industry have been pretty useful over the last year. I also appreciate that companies like Netflix have been able to keep us entertained. They aren't all bad.
 

...
no.
 
Though the inference would be 8 points - wins against Brum and Wednesday, points against Rovers and Preston - if we went down with those results I'd eat everyone's hats.
 
In fact, realistically, 5 points from Rovers, Preston and Brum would be enough.

Alonso is Gary Teale? 
?

This has been my argument for a while now, as a consequence of the first lockdowns some big business and the media made substantial profits.  Since then we have seen the goalposts shift time and again and the arguments for remaining locked down grow steadily weaker.  
I hope in the fullness of time we get a proper inquiry into the various responses to the pandemic - and if, as the related CNN sting shows us, some big businesses have been putting pressure on Governments to prolong lockdowns for profit or promoting a certain narrative for selfish reasons, appropriate action is taken.

If people didn't watch these channels/visit their websites/buy their newspapers/follow their social media, then they would all stop being overblown, scare-mongering, frenzy-driven PR machines for the World's biggest corporate/political interests.
Unfortunately most people do at least one of these things. I, unfortunately, read the BBC website every day at work and it's just as bad as the rest. But you learn to sift out the 90% BS and take away the 10% of the story that is true/useful to know.
What's the old saying? Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see... unfortunately encouraging critical thinking and independent thought is not high on most Government's to do lists.
Last thing the Governments of the world want is the plebs getting ideas above their stations.
COVID is real and awful, however like most things, it has been weaponised by political parties on all sides, and perpetuated by the media to further divide society and help pit the general public against themselves - "Covidiots" vs "Snowflakes", rather than allowing a post-Brexit/post Trump media vacuum to be created which might be more dangerous to those at the top.
 
 

Nah, what we be peak Derby, and peak EFL would be something like...
This Alonso guy really is the real deal, his backers are genuine and have untold riches. The EFL though see some a small reason within their rules that they can disallow the takeover, it collapses & we go looking for another new buyer before ending up with an absolute walloper who despite passing all the tests (after all, the Sheikh did!)  buys us and over the next couple of years proceeds to ruin us, sending us down to League 2.
Meanwhile, 6 months after they refuse to sanction Alonso's takeover of Derby the EFL make some small adjustments to their rules and he finds another club to buy, the new rules mean his his ownership is approved and within 2 years they've blitzed the Championship, had a top 10 finish in the PL & qualified for Europe by winning a domestic cup.

I think 24 hour news has a lot to answer for. They can't exactly say, here is the news, nothing is happening. Every event has to be driven to the maximum to justify their existence. Every minor issue has to be whipped into a frenzy otherwise they have nothing to talk about. Minor uninteresting squabbles turn into massive debates, like whether or not Meghan should go to the funeral. I'm sure before 24 hour news it wouldn't have been such a controversial issue, or it might have been in the papers for a day or two before something more interesting came up and the press butterfly-like changed direction.

There’s a Leicestershire golfer who had a hole in one on the same par three at Hunstanton on 3 consecutive days. In a county match in 1974. So it should be a breeze for Alonzo to have us in the champions league in a season or two 

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.
Systematic approach.
Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).
If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).
Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...
(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 
Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.
So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 
If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:
15 Derby County 46 58
16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)
17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)
18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)
19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)
20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)
21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)
22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)
23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)
24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)
So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).
 
I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 
So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.
 
We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.
Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..
 
So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?
This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:
17 Derby County 46 55
18 Rotherham United 43 54
19 Coventry City 44 54
20 Birmingham City 44 54
21 Huddersfield Town 44 53
22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50
With 6 games to decide it:
Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.
Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.
 
SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!
But what if we draw with BIrmingham?
In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 
This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.
 
SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.
 
Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.
This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).
17 Derby County 46 55
18 Rotherham United 43 54
19 Coventry City 44 54
20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53
21 Huddersfield Town 44 53
22 Birmingham City 44 51
Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 
All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.
 
So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.
 
 
 
 
 

Llorente?

I'm just waiting on the reveal that it's actually a consortium of football villains............Ken Bates, Adam Pearson, Billy Davies, Matt Southall, The Oystons, SiSU, the ghost of 1970s Leeds utd, all formed together to create a hub of evil power....but it turned out neither Wednesday or Cardiff could handle the evil....

Nah, you have this wrong Hoax are the Indonesian branch of Vox. They are attempting to repatriate Catholics living in Bali back to their own country.
So nothing to worry about!

Ha, that would be an absolutely ace stat for him to know 

Nah, you have this wrong Hoax are the Indonesian branch of Vox. They are attempting to repatriate Catholics living in Bali back to their own country.
So nothing to worry about!

Great post.
As @GboroRam mentioned though, is it worse than before?
In the past, media sensationalism taught us to despise those who are different. Now that is mostly no longer acceptable, we are taught to despise those with different opinions. It's progress of sorts as at least people can change their minds!
Maybe people have to stand up and reject sensationalism, but I'm not sure that's possible. Social Media has just amplified this massively as it's full of nobodies looking to earn money from extreme views. There is even less of a filter these days.  This also drowns out moderate voices looking for compromise.
Heard an interesting radio programme a few months back about gerrymandering in the US, where election boundaries were kept being redrawn to sure up either sides support.
So originally, you may have two election areas, both mixed between rich and poor, black and white etc. To win an election, a candidate had to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.
Over time, boundaries were redrawn to end up with one party's voters in one area and vice versa. This then meant the winning party was a given and the only challenge came from within the own party, attempting to push further from the centre ground towards the extreme.
This seems to be how the media also seems to operate these days, perhaps as the are so driven by commercial need to sensationalise. Think we need the BBC more than ever, but one that can always provide an unbiased factual account of what us going on. Maybe the news could be replaced with More or Less?

I was tempted to give you the angry emoji, something I have never done. As @Van der MoodHoover states Birmingham or Derby can not win every game they have to play because they play each other. If we win ALL of our games, something that IS in our hands (however unlikely) we will finish above three teams.

Next year? Not necessarily; there's some tough teams in League One

Can we still make the playoffs?

I have misjudged this season from minute 1 with my over-confidence. I’m going to continue doing so- we’ll win Friday and end on 53 points 
 

Worse, definitely worse.  Driven in part by 24/7 news outlets that have to turn a profit and social media. 
I agree with a lot of what you said and would like to expand upon others but this isn't the thread for that and I'd only be putting the effort in to write an off topic post that may end up being removed. 
I think regarding covid however, as we emerge from the pandemic we really need to start pushing back against the Government, big business and the media now.  In an ideal world we'd be given the truth, get our freedoms restored, learn lessons for the future and have those that profited from the crisis or exploited it in some way pay their dues.

Shame there isn’t an academy thread.?
Getting back to the potential takeover,
Fact : No limits sports ltd have agreed terms to buy DCFC.
Fact: Due diligence has been completed and the SPA signed.
Fact : A deposit has been paid and proof of funds has been seen by Mel’s lawyers.
Fact: We are waiting on EFL approval for the takeover.
Have I missed anything ?
 

Where do the purchases of Evans, Holmes, Bielik and Jozwiak fit into this? 
I'd argue that at least two of them didn't turn out as we'd hoped, proving that it is a recruitment problem rather than an academy problem.

15/16 - instead of Hanson filling in at CM/AM, we either go 442 with Bent up top, or push Baird to CM/AM instead. A few injuries later in the season so we're forced to play Bryson at DM. We continue with an out of form Christie or play Keogh at RB. Injuries to Forsyth and Olsson means that Shackell or Johnson have to play LB. This was all in the season when we had 30+ players on senior wages. Maybe we should have doubled down and signed another LB (on top of Forsyth and Olsson), another RB (on top of Christie and Baird) and another DM/CM/AM (on top of Hendrick, Hughes, Butterfield, Johnson, Bryson and Thorne, with Baird also capable of filling in)
16/17 - Injuries to Olsson and Forsyth gave Lowe a chance. Perhaps we needed that 3rd senior LB afterall
18/19 - Let's sign another RB when we already have Wisdom. Bogle may be good enough but that doesn't matter. We've already got Lawrence, just got Wilson on loan, bought Jozefzoon and Waghorn. But let's sign another winger because we don't want an academy graduate to be 5th choice on the wing, or 4th choice CF!
19/20 - Bogle may have established himself as an excellent RB in this league, and Wisdom is capable backup, but let's sign another anyway? That 3rd choice LB on senior wages we signed back in 15/16 can play a few games again now that Malone and Forsyth are both unavailable. Plus that DM we signed in the same season and hasn't played since can now fill in for the first time since that season because 5 first team options in that position are all injured. We don't want an academy graduate to fill in as 6th choice for 2 positions. Let's continue to play the rubbish Jozefzoon and Anya rather than give a reliable player such as Knight a go. Dowell's doing poorly, but let's not cut his loan short as we don't want Sibley playing.
20/21 - Well with no income from Lowe and Bogle, we can't recruit that exciting young winger from Poland. Anya and Jozefzoon can stick around. We also need to cave in to Huddlestone's demands and give him a 2 year deal on £20k pw just t o prevent Bird playing. Good job we've kept Malone at the club otherwise we'd be forced to include Lowe or Buchanan in the matchday squad.