StantonRam

Rick Wakeman joins The Rams on keyboards, only to quit 5 minutes later citing "musical differences".  He later admits "I thought it was a band, I didn't know it was a football team, I still offered my services, but they said that I've had so many heart operations that they couldn't find anyone who would insure me...I think I need to lie down..."

Prog lives!

Daaaaaa da da da da daaaaaaaa    daaaaaa daaaaaa daaaaa

Daaaaaa da da da da daaaaaaaa    daaaaaa daaaaaa daaaaa

Ram's hoof Irn Bru

Bieliek's surgeon's got the glue

At paranoia's deja vu

21st century schizoid Rams

Prog lives!

Oops I (we) did it again

OK here's my 2p worth.

If they are in the squad then they must be, in the opinion of the management, capable of doing some kind of job on the pitch this season, otherwise why pay them?

In a league where fitness, physicality and commitment count for more than skill, surely that's what needs to be prioritised now when training/signing/loaning players, based on the theory that this will be another relegation dogfight unless events prove otherwise.

If we can get Davies, Wisdom, Waghorn* back that's a bonus, all 3 can do a job for us still.  Ditto Matt Clarke.

Bielik still out?  That's a real blow, I thought he'd be back by now.

Let's keep faith with the home grown players who give their all every time (Buchanan, Sibley, Bird, Knight) and hope that they are now stronger after last season's battles.

On paper this is still a squad that should be able to achieve a mid table finish in this league.  

The players who have gone are mostly those who didn't feature much anyway (with the exception of the 3 mentioned above).  If Marriott prefers to play for Peterborough rather than be managed by Wazza (and maybe learn something) then that's his loss, good riddance.  'Big fish, small pond' mentality.  Trouble is now that, following the rule that every ex player scores against us, guess who'll be the next one to do so?

Roos, Byrne, Davies (hopefully), Wisdom (hopefully), Buchanan, Shinnie, Bird, Bielik, Knight, Sibley, Waghorn* plus CKR, Lawrence etc on the bench, that's still a competitive lineup if the collective attitude and organisation is right.  The experienced 'spine' of Roos/Davies (hopefully)/Shinnie/Waghorn*, together with younger 'runners' (Byrne, Buchanan, Sibley) would surely be capable of holding their own in this league, wouldn't they, provided that they were managed/organised/motivated properly?

It's now clear that this season will be another holding operation, underwritten by MM and awaiting final resolution of the ongoing EFL & ownership sagas, with the aim of achieving 21st place again.  The longer this goes on however, the more likely Wazza is to jump ship &/or be tempted elsewhere.  If anything his stock will have actually risen having kept us up last season.

*am talking about the Waghorn who played v Sheff Wed in the last game rather than the doppelganger** who turned up for most of the other games LOL

** I think that's probably the first time the word 'doppelganger' has appeared on here***

*** A 'doppelganger' in German is a 'ghostly double' or shadow apparition of a real person...

Quote

 

"What Derby did with amortisation was not against the rules at the time, it was not against established accounting practice.

The efl did not like that Derby did it, but just because you don't like something that someone does does not make it illegal.

The rule book was established by the efl and their own rules at the time did not make amortisation accounting policy wrong at the time when Derby did something that the efl did not like

 

That sums it up nicely.  Nothing illegal, a loophole exploited at the most, up to the EFL to tighten the rules if they don't like it, it's completely unacceptable to punish a club just because they failed to close their own loophole before!

Sack the EFL!

Sign 'em up!

As things stand I voted for 15th-20th on the basis that everyone currently on the books is fit and available and that they stay that way until Xmas at least (e.g. Bielik).  We should be able to accumulate enough points to be at around 10th at the turn of the year, then we'll probably drop like a stone once key people get injured or go missing in action, dip into the drop zone in March, and then stage another spectacular escape on the last day to finish 19th.

The takeover will be completed during the season, Wazza will then get funds to strengthen, and 2022-23 will see a top 6 finish and possibly even top 2 due to the new investment and some astute loan signings from the PL.

A few thoughts on this.

I always enjoy seeing a new player from the Academy break into the first team, and in recent years some of them have been excellent - Bogle, Lowe, Sibley, the list goes on.

If we are headed for a short term future in which we are strapped for cash, it's the only way to survive in the Championship as far as I can see, because it seems that big money purchases are out of the question for now.

The other side of the coin is this however.  Running an Academy takes money, and most of the players we produce won't make the Rams first team.  To some extent we are developing players who then get sold before we have seen them at their best, and for less money than they will soon be worth (unless we insert valuation or sell on clauses in the contract when they are sold).  Therefore, in order to produce a Bogle or a Lowe we are spending probably more money than it would cost to sign an established 25-30 year old journeyman.

One more thing that I've noticed.  All the players that have emerged from the Academy in recent years seem to be the same type of player - skilful, quick, exciting going forward BUT also defensively fragile and liable to not be in position when we are under the cosh and about to concede from yet another set piece.  (To be fair, Max Bird has proved the exception to this rule I admit).

Where are the goalkeepers, centre backs, big #9s etc coming up from the Academy?  Or do we preselect, when they are young, boys who might become the next Will Hughes but not the next Curtis Davies or Scott Carson or CKR?  Or is it that only the quick, skilful players show up for trials?  If so, what are we doing to try to find other types of young players?   We need those kind of 'solid' players coming through as well as the skilful midfielders, of which we seem to have an abundance. 

For example, would we sign up a very young version of Akinfenwa to the Academy?  People may scoff at this example, but the fact is that the guy has had a 15 year professional career and scored a lot of goals, albeit at a lower level.  Would we sign a very young version of Peter Crouch either?  Or even Gazza?

The ability to spot talent that is housed within a non-standard individual (non-standard mentally &/or physically) was surely part of the genius of Peter Taylor.  Teams used to be full of characters, eccentrics and strange looking people - Nobby Stiles, anyone?  Archie Gemmill?  Would those types get signed now, or do we always go for the slim, athletic, average to tall height, skilful rather than solid or gutsy type of youngster, and thereby miss potential in other positions in the early stages?  Are we at risk of producing an assembly line of Hughes/Bogle type clones because they are easier to spot at a young age than a potentially great GK or CB or big #9?

I don't know the answer I admit, but I have worked in education and I do know enough to know that guts, character, resilience and a determination to improve often count for more in the end than natural talent.  How then does one judge guts, character, resilience and determination in an 11 year old?  If the next Jamie Vardy turned up at the Academy would we be able to spot him?  I hope so!

So now it is clear.

Roth won't win on Sat but they might draw, still not enough points even if we lose.

Wycombe won't pull off a miracle because even if they win and we lose GD would save us.

Therefore in my mind they are both down, and it really is Rams v Sheff Wed for the prize of staying up.

It's down to us, a point will be enough.

However, in order to secure the point we need to go forward, as we know we can on a good day, as often as possible, either to score or to keep the ball away from our net or both.

Sheff Wed will know that they have a task ahead, but they will also know how vulnerable we are at the back.  The fewer set pieces we concede in our half the better.  Another reason to keep it in their half as much as possible.

Therefore, we need a McClaren style performance, a 5-4 win is still a win and a 3-3 draw is still a draw.

I'm sticking to my previous prediction - a dazzling first half, 2-0 ahead at half time, then a rubbish 2nd half, Sheff Wed will score on about 70 mins, and then it's backs to the wall, a few scary moments but ultimately WE WILL STAY UP!

Keep the faith, brothers and sisters!

When I said "all we WILL need is a point", I'm assuming that Rotherham will get nothing against Luton, which I think is reasonable.

We will therefore end up in a kind of 'reverse playoff' situation in which 4 equally dreadful teams compete for the right to the 1 available place in next season's Championship.

Our 90 minute plus stoppage time mission on that day is simple...DO NOT LOSE and, more importantly, pray to every available deity that none of the other 3 teams win.

We have the advantage. 

Wycombe are essentially down even if they win, unless the scores on the day are more like those in Rugby.

I can see Rotherham drawing with Cardiff, but I can't see a Rotherham win.

The pressure is on Sheff Wed rather than us because they have to beat us to stay up whereas we just need a point.  I think we will win, I really do, and we will finish on 46 points.

All the pent up frustration of the last few weeks will be focused at Moor Farm during this week, and we will get a performance of two halves (as usual).  We will be quick out of the blocks and 2-0 up at half time but we will also squander chances to go further ahead.

SW will mount a comeback 2nd half and probably score on about 70 minutes.

The last 20 minutes will seem like 20 years, and SW will come close to scoring several more times, but in the end THE RAMS WILL STAY UP!

Keep the faith, brothers and sisters!

As I predicted.

Final day showdown, all we will need is a point, how hard can it be?

Erm...

Rotherham losing again is a big bonus for us.  They now only have one game in hand and are 4 points behind us, although their GD is still better than ours.  They can only catch us if they get 4 points out of 9 and we don't get any more points.

Wycombe can't catch us unless they win both games with big scores and we lose both ours, also with big scores.

Sheff Wed have the same GD as us and can only catch us if they win both their 2 games and we don't get any more points.

This weekend could therefore see all this resolved, but I wouldn't be surprised if we do end up in a last day shoot out with Sheff Wed or Rotherham or even both for the prize of staying up.

A point against Swansea would really help to make the last day shoot out less likely, so come Saturday that's what I'll be praying for, along with Sheff Wed & Rotherham not getting 3 points.  If that's the outcome then we're safe unless Rotherham win their last 2 games.

Unbelievably gutted today.  2 more soft goals to add to our huge collection this season.

The only saving grace is the equally bad performances by the teams below us, so despite this debacle things are essentially unchanged with only 2 games to go, and in fact, bizarrely, it could actually be argued that we are in a slightly better position than we were at 3pm.

Rams 43/44, Roth 39/42

Let's assume for a moment that they will lose to Brentford and Brum as we will to Swansea.

Rams 43/45, Roth 39/44

However, they could sneak a point against Luton.

Rams 43/45, Roth 40/45

Which would bring us, as I said before, to a final day showdown in which (fortunately) any permutation except a Rotherham win plus a Rams loss would see us staying up.  The tension mounts...

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

Pathetic display on Tues by all accounts, some chickens I highlighted earlier (loan players lack of commitment, lack of commitment of players who suspect that they'll be shown the door in the summer, the academy lads are great but unused to the rigours of this league) have come home to roost.

All of this is pointing inexorably towards a final day showdown with us needing at least a point from Sheff Wed to stay up.

How low has this once mighty club fallen that we pray for Rotherham of all people to mess up, because we wonder where our own goals and wins will come from in the last 3 games.

Here's my revised suggestion of how the run in may pan out.

Currently we have 43 from 43, Roth have 39 from 41.  They have a much better GD now.

Say we get a point on Sat and they lose to Barnsley then

Rams 44 from 44, Roth 39 from 42. 

They will probably lose to Brentford as well:

Rams 44/44, Roth 39/43

We might get a point v Swansea but they are capable of beating Brum:

Rams 45/45, Roth 42/44

Still not mathematically safe, the tension mounts...

They might get a point v Luton...

Rams 45/45, Roth 43/45

Which leaves us on the last day needing a point to be mathematically safe and hoping that Roth lose or draw.

If we lose and they win, we go down.

If we lose and they draw, we stay up.

If we lose and they lose, we stay up.

If we draw and they win, GD will decide and we go down.

If we draw and they draw, we stay up.

If we draw and they lose, we stay up.

If we win, we stay up no matter what they do.

So out of 9 possible combinations of results only 2 see us go down.  Do we feel lucky?

What I take from today's results is that as someone just said above it's now us v Rotherham for who finishes 21st & 22nd.

Let's take a look at the run in.

Currently we are 4 points ahead but they have a better GD and 2 games in hand.

We play Preston on the 20th - a win would see us pull away but a draw is more likely IMO, Rams 44 pts Roth 39

They play Boro on the 21st - I think they will lose, Rams 44pts Roth 39

We play Brum on the 24th - another draw probably, Rams 45pts Roth 39

They play Barnsley also - they may well get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 40

They play Brentford on the 27th - I think they will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 40

They play Blackburn on 1st May, they may well win this as Blackburn will be safe by then and probably half asleep, Rams 45pts Roth 43

We play Swansea the same day, I think we will lose, Rams 45pts Roth 43, still not mathematically safe

They play Luton on the 4th May, they could get a point, Rams 45pts Roth 44

So it will as I suspected come down to the LAST DAY!

They play Cardiff, they may get a point, that will put them level on points with us BUT their GD will probably still be better, which means...

All we will need is a point against an already relegated Sheffield Wednesday...

Wazza will come in for some criticism because he will opt to play an attack minded team in a 3-4-3 or similar, but it will come up trumps because we will WIN and finish with 48 points!

After which thousands of Rams fans will consult their doctors with bleeding finger ends, no fingernails left and needing urgent surgery...

Oh dear.

So now we need 2 wins and a draw from the last 4 to reach the magic 50.

We now have to hope that:

(a) 46 or 47 points will be enough (1 win and 1 draw from 4 games is still possible I think)

(b) Rotherham fail to capitalise on the games in hand

(c) the other teams around us all draw with each other and all lose to the higher placed sides

Let's also console ourselves by reflecting on the fact that in recent years quite a few big clubs have dropped into L1, come storming back, and are now in the PL or Championship.  If that were to happen then we wouldn't be the first 'big' club to do that and probably not the last.

Maybe there'd also be a healing effect to be had from a season of (hopefully) mostly winning rather than mostly losing, with a new line up of hungry, fit, ambitious players (and a proper pre season) looking to make their mark or prove themselves, talent that we could really get behind, explore some unfamiliar places (anyone here ever been to Accrington? me neither LOL) and in some cases outnumber the home supporters.  A successful L1 campaign might then provide the springboard for a subsequent Championship to PL promotion push, in the style of Bournemouth & Sheff Utd for example.

Mel tried to buy us promotion and we got very close but in the end it didn't work.  Whatever league we end up in come August, maybe it's time to try a different way based mostly on home grown talent, of which we have an abundance, plus Wazza using his contacts to find us another Mount & another Tomori on loan, plus a few shrewd purchases.  Too often in recent years we have spent £10 million buying 5 journeymen when we should have instead spent that money on 2 proven match winners.

Adam Bolder made an interesting point last night on the radio.  Even in L1, there must be many young players out there who would jump at the chance to work with Wazza, we would just need to find them.

Footie to me is about roots and identity and loyalty.  Any fool can 'support' a team that's rich &/or successful.  We're all here because that kind of fickleness is not for us.  Once a Ram always a Ram, simple as that.

Roll on next season, and wherever we end up let's sell out all the home games and out-sing the home fans wherever we go away from home.  

Having said all that I still believe we can avoid the drop.

da da     da daaaaaaaa da da da          da daaaaaaaaa da da daaaaaaa da daaaaaaaa (Great Escape tune)...

So, to summarise:

Every game between the bottom 8 teams is now a massive 'cup final' & a '6 pointer'.

Ours especially.

So, poo or bust, death or glory, we shall fight them on the beaches etc etc etc.

Almost all of this squad have things to play for - loan extension, academy player catching the eye, possible purchase, a contract here, a contract elsewhere.

No one wants a relegation on their CV!

I stick by my previous prediction that we will be kept sweating until the last day because our lot will probably find a way to draw 3 of the remaining games, possibly from winning positions, but then pull it out of the bag with 2 wins, one of which will be Sheff Wed.  However, we still won't be mathematically safe on goal difference until the 95th minute on the 8th May.

Time to buy an extra set of underwear.

COYR!

1 hour ago, FindernRam said:

I ran a makeshift monte carlo simulation for bottom 7 clubs. Over 20 runs (excel based)  using last 10 games as form guide for the odds, and lot of manual updating the commonest result was Brum Derby Roth on 50 points. Hudd Cov 49, Sheff 42 Wycombe 36.

Man that is really down to the wire. In those 20 passes we were relegated 6 times! 

The one thing I couldn't factor in is injuries and Rotherham's horrendous schedule.

My favourite prediction site has us to get 51 points and be clear by 1 point. Last Day squeaky bum time! They say 14% chance of relegation. But also a pretty flat spread between 21st and 15th.

 

If it really is that tight then goal difference will be a huge factor, and in that scenario would presumably decide which of those 2 teams went down.

Had another look at the table just now.

Let's assume for a moment that Rotherham will go above us once they have played the same number of games but that Coventry will still be below us having failed to capitalise on their game in hand.

Our task then is to ensure that either Brum, Hudd or Cov take Rotherham's place in the bottom 3 and not us, with Cov being the most vulnerable I think.

Here's how we do it.

WIN 2 out of the 4 games against our rival teams in the same zone - Blackburn, Preston, Brum, Sheff Wed, I think that is doable.

DRAW one of those 4 games, also reasonable I think.

That gives us 50 points, which I think will be enough, and with 2 wins and 1 draw then even if we lose the other 2 of the 5 remaining games we still stay up.

We also need to maintain the better goal difference that we currently have relative to Brum/Hudd/Cov whatever happens just in case.

A 1-0 loss to Swansea would not see us going down, but a heavy loss might if it leaves our goal difference worse than that of those 3 other teams.

If we win only 1 of the 5 remaining games then the other 4 will need to be draws to be sure of getting the magic 50 points.  Difficult but not impossible.

I think that the Rams will pull their usual trick of putting us through hell and then pulling it out of the bag right at the end by not beating Blackburn or Preston (although draws are quite possible), not beating Swansea (although again a draw is probably on the cards), but then thumping both Brum and Sheff Wed, each by a 2 or 3 goal margin, to end the season in 18th or 19th place on goal difference with 52 points.

I used to sell crystal balls for a living, but I couldn't see any future in it...

Goal difference suddenly becomes of great importance.

Therefore against Norwich a 5 - 4 - 1 formation and either a point or a respectable losing scoreline (1-0 or 2-0) is a more sensible strategy than trying too hard for the win and getting stuffed and ending up with a -20 GD.

Wins against Brum and Sheff Wed plus one draw somewhere gets us well over the line at 50 points.

Therefore, tomorrow we need to be scrapping and hard to score against above anything else, and if we get a lucky break as we did at Carrow Road then so much the better.

Mathematically no one below 15th is safe, but the 3 for the drop will probably come from the current bottom 6 including us.  I'd suggest that the odds of going down are pretty much the same as the current positions, with us being the least likely and Wycombe the most likely.  Haven't checked the odds at the bookies but wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.  Rotherham probably have better odds of survival than their position suggests due to the games in hand.

My figure of 50 points was aimed at absolute mathematical safety at the final whistle on the last day.  Like all of us I really hope that 47/48/49 will be enough, but then again it might not be.

The extent to which we now depend on others below losing is a bit scary TBH, it's got to the stage where I cheer louder when one of the other bottom 6 teams loses or concedes a goal than when we score, not that this happens often at the moment LOL.

Yesterday was a very significant result for the maths.  Now Rotherham, with 4 games in hand, know that they can overtake us with 2 wins for them and 2 defeats for us in the next 2 games.  And their goal difference is better than ours, much better in fact.  Therefore their players will really be up for a scrap in the next few weeks, let's hope that our lot are as well!

3 other teams around us have one game in hand - Hudd, Cov, Sheff W.

I do hope that Wazza and the staff have a plan to get us to the 50 points somehow, even if it involves some dubious "game management" tactics......

Squeaky bum time now, chaps & chapesses!

We need 10 more points from the last 8 games, my money is on us sneaking a couple of 1-0 wins and a couple of 0-0 draws from the next 6 games and then having to sweat it out on 48 points with 2 games left and with the 'relegation fodder' teams breathing down our necks until the end of the season as we cling on by our fingertips and park the bus for the last 2 games to try to squeeze out the 2 remaining points. 

Psychologically this squad looks almost broken.  Why?

The loanees have no real incentive to bust a gut as they'll be back on the bench at their parent clubs next season.

Most of the experienced players already know or suspect that their contracts won't be renewed, so why huff and puff for a club that doesn't think they're good enough?

The young home grown players show ability, guts and energy but also naivete and fragility.

Everyone knows that come August only half of these people will be here, so where is the loyalty/solidarity/teamwork going to come from for the next 6 weeks?

I think Wazza & Mac do have the vision and experience to turn things around next season but the immediate task is formidable.  All they can offer players right now is 'jam tomorrow' - "stick with us kid, and next season we'll be back in the playoffs".  That will work for the youngsters, it has worked for CKR, and hopefully it will work for Matt Clarke, but the rest?

No one wants a relegation on their CV, but if I were a loan player I wouldn't care really, and right now we are very dependent on the loan players. 

Millwall did a job on us with 3 players on the pitch that were deemed surplus to requirements here and let go.  Players leave us and then start scoring, Malone for example.  Remember Jeff Hendrick?  A bit part player with us in the Championship, by no means assured of a start, often brought on as a sub.  Now he has been a permanent fixture for two PL clubs for several seasons.  Are Dyche and Bruce stupid managers or did we not realise just what we had?

Is it that we have changed manager too often or is it that sometimes we don't maximise the potential of players while they are here?  Or both? 

I think we will get over the line, but in mathematical terms probably not until the last day of the season.

(and cue the 'Great Escape' tune...da da......da daaaaaaa da da da...........da daaaa da da daaaa da daaaaaaaaa)

Very impressed with CKR, love his commitment, he could easily choose to just coast along, do the bare minimum and distance himself from the disaster that is our season so far, but instead he made his presence felt both on and off the pitch (Radio Derby described him as looking like "the Angel of the North" after he was brought off and offered loud encouragement from the stand).  If he goes on like this he'll be a Rams legend by the end of this season, especially if we stay up.

You can see why his goal tally isn't huge - he's a Heskey style target man, but what a relief to have him on board!  Someone yesterday dubbed him "the sideboard", I'll second that!  The wardrobe is gone, long live the sideboard!