brady1993

3 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Ah, yeah I see the angle. 

But in truth it's the best possible outcome but if it happened i wouldn't say it was nicely played by Mel.

I'd say what a mental gamble and now it's paid off you need to run for the hills before anyone can change their minds

It shouldn't but I think there is a chance that if it comes off that some of the fan base warm back up to him alongside he gets to reinforce that mental picture that he's built of always doing what's best for the club.

1 minute ago, Spanish said:

trouble is Morris history of gambling on our club's future is very poor

Never said it was a good bet. He's a pretty typical example of chasing losses.

32 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I mean in the interview to my ears he made it sound as if admin is a good thing for Derby since it will somehow force a buyer to move and then we can go again

That is literally the most positive way you could view going into admin and the knock on effect it has on people's jobs, businesses and lives. 

Going into admin doesn't help him sell the club to anyone decent. It puts the vultures on alert. 

What are we hoping here that Robin Hood thinks I need to pump tens of millions into that club because lifelong Derby fan doesn't want to? 

Sounds unlikely. 

What's the best outcome for us? That the EFL relax the fit and proper persons rules and allow Alonso and his shady mates in? Great. 

Or that out of all the people in the world that have tens and tens of millions in the bank one takes pity on us? 

It's possible I'm being thick in my conclusion but for a man who gambled a chunk of his personal wealth and lost it seems he's not learned and is now gambling again. But this time the club is on the line. 

Now I've helped ruin the positives thread ffs

That's pretty much my take with what is going off here and in his own way I think he might be doing because he thinks it the best for the club because the "reward" here is actually potentially pretty high in terms of our relative position. Theoretically it could force a buyer to the table ASAP to essentially get in ahead of going into adminstration, if that happens they could choose to wipe out the debts entirely solving the financial issues, with new owners at the helm it probably leads to an easing of tensions with the EFL with us perhaps getting off lighter than under MM and if that happens our position in the championship looks more stable.

I think that's the gamble; he's bet the club on an outcome where we become a financially stable club in the championship with issues with the EFL settled.

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The academy... at least for now

That's the irony of his situation; the thing that is arguably his biggest achievement, the thing he said he wanted to build around and the thing he always points to as a positive ...will be the first thing to go on the scrap heap when the adminstrators get their teeth in.

7 hours ago, CornwallRam said:

To be honest, if we get to January to have a fire sale, it will be a brilliant outcome. We shouldn't be worried about fielding a competitive team this season - that ship will have sailed as soon as we go into administration. The key is the survival of the club and selling players in January will make that far more likely.

I get your logic but honestly if this isn't sorted by January it will more likely be an asset strip to pay off creditors than selling players to keep the club afloat. I get that can be the same thing but I feel like if we are going to get a takeover it will before that window, there is a decent chance if we go into that window ownerless we cease trading.

4 minutes ago, Jourdan said:

Even I must admit that I am starting to feel sorry for Rooney.

When the points deductions are finalised, he will be left to do a job that is way beyond his current skillset and level of experience, and he has seemingly been left in the dark and the cold by the very people who brought him to the club.

Let’s see what he can produce moving forward and let’s see where he is 12 months from now. I don’t see that he has done anything out of the ordinary so far.

Staying at the club, and contributing to the costs of away travel and such things will surely reflect well on him and of course build goodwill.

However, let’s not forget - he probably will have been consulted by his agent or PR team on the best steps to take.

I think this is a tad cyncical as a slant given that the only awareness we have of him contributing to away costs is a forum insider passing it along. 

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

And this is interesting because, as I said in the Stoke thread, Shinnie was our first player all season to make it into the FotMob/72 Team of the Week. He does a lot of good work that goes unnoticed. If Rooney is still the manager and we still have all our first team squad, selection is gradually becoming harder. Which has to be a good thing.

I disagree with this part, I actually think a lot of his good work is very very noticeable and often the type of stuff that from a metric aggregator standpoint racks up points. Big thundering tackles, lung bursting runs and ratting around the pitch are all his strengths and all the stuff that fans are drawn to by in large. What tends to go unnoticed is the stuff such his positioning not being the best (more so from an in possesion stand point), his tendancy to shy away from getting on the ball, his first touch not being great and his tendancy to be overly deliberate on the ball.

Also for what it's worth I suspect a big reason why he made the team of the week there has a lot to do with picking up 2 assists on paper.

23 minutes ago, Gaspode said:

It was an edited interview so perhaps Mel had final say over what was broadcast? - there certainly seemed to be a few key question's that weren't asked (or weren't publicy answered) - I also suspect that whenever Mel said "that's a good question" he either meant that Dawes had asked one off his agreed list or else that Mel was expecting to be asked that and therefore had a pre-prepared answer ready...

For what it's worth I think Radio Derby did say it was unedited.

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

One of the points being made was selling one or both (or other) players would have helped keep us going a bit longer. perhaps long enough for a takeover to go through

This is the bit I'm still left scratching my head about. If we were so close to the wire why didn't we sell somebody; Lawrence being the most obvious because of the fee he would command, the wages we'd save and that we could likely cover him. 

The only thing I can think of is taking the viewpoint that I think you can view a lot of MM's decision through "What would a reckless fan do ?" In this case it's a gamble on not selling off players because a takeover looked immenint so no need to take precautions. TBH it's the one major impression that was reinforced by the interview to me, the premium example being about how we shifted the money we had payed for a manager to mostly pay the wages of the next one. 

Even now I somewhat think this is a last gasp roll of the dice. Whilst I think this is extremely unlikely to happen the following I believe is hypothetically possible; we get taken over before going into adminstration, the new owners clear the debt and with MM out of the picture and with some reassurances from the new owners the EFL ease off their approach towards us. The ultimate result being we get hit with a penalty ranging from a fine to a small points deduction, the embargo gets lifted and all before we are forced to asset strip.

Now I think the above scenario is a bit "magical christmas land" but as I've seen @jono mention a couple times MM just smacks of a gambler and I do think there is a logic of this being his last bet. 

18 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I wondered why we hadn't heard from @Derby bloodwho does wear his heart on his sleeve. Thanks for stepping in, Ruud.

It's a shame it's away as the administrators won't be getting any gate money in before the end of month payroll. 

A week to nurse tired limbs is probably a good thing, and we should be pleased they play Southampton in the League Cup on Tuesday. If we can hold on to the defiant spirit Rooney has crafted, we should be competitive. Two questions regarding team selection:

1. Whether to play Baldock, or Stretton, or a false number 9? Definitely option 2 or 3 for me.
2. With Knight having another week, who misses out from Shinnie, Bird, Knight, Ravel, Sibley? One of them won't start.

My expectation is that Rooney will actually pick an unchanged starting 11, as a reward to the team against Stoke for delivering on the win in such difficult circumstances. And that would be understandable.

 

I think our strongest 11 right now is probably

Roos

Byrne* Jagielka Davies Buchanan

Knight Bird

Sibley Morrison Jozwiak

Lawrence

*Think there is an argument we might be better off with Ebosele

But I think going unchanged is probably the right call as keeping up moral and team spirit right now is vitally important.

3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Over recent seasons, 3rd bottom has finished with between 40 points (15/16) and 51 points (16/17)
The average over 20 years being 45.5, but the general trend is that figure decreasing (44.4 over the last 10 years).

Using the 20 year average and adding 12 points on, means 57.5 points over the season... which is currently exactly what our ppg is currently.
Knight only just returning to the squad, Kazim and Bielik still to come back. A young squad improving and gaining confidence as the season progresses... I see no reason we we couldn't stay up.

16 points (as hinted at by Mel) would be moving into the realm of being tricky but not impossible. Anything more than that and it becomes a task of ensuring the admin points are applied to this one, rather than next season in L1.

I mostly agree althought I think even 12 points will be tricky to overcome, doable but tricky. A lot depends on that front about how the players are affected by it mentally.

The other caveat to this is it assumes that we get taken over quickly i.e before January because if we aren't then we get asset stripped in January and from there all hope probably goes.

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

We all want people with the best ability at the club but it's the ones with character that are inspirational. 

Take Lampard's team vs Rowett. Rowett was better statistically. But something about the character of the Lampard team made that season more enjoyable for most

Rooney may not be the coach many wanted or the best we could have had. But the guy is a winner and has bounced back more times in his long successful career than you could count. I actually don't think he's been a bad manager. More of a "meh" than bad considering the circus Derby have been for some time

I think he's the best thing we could ask for right now. Always been a Rooney fanboy though. 

In a weird way the harder the job has become the better he seems to have done. The way he's gone about his business is truly commendable and he deserves a hell of a lot of respect for it.

52 minutes ago, curb said:

Losing our ‘young talent’ is the least of our worries, there’s a real danger that there won’t be a club for them to play for.

I get your point and you are right but isn't there something utterly demoralising at the same time with that ? How selling of the likes Bird, Sibley, Knight and Buchanan on the cheap and taking a hatchet to the academy probably occurs in a lot of the "better" scenarios? 

One of the main reasons I've found myself more engaged again this last couple of years is seeing these players come through the academy with the promise of more to follow and if that gets dismantled it will feel like such a waste and I'll find it harder to care. Might be that I'm viewing this all wrong and it might be I'm lying to myself about how my interest will wax and wane. There are certainly more important things right now like you allude to but it will represent something of a dream dying to me and a part of what makes football interesting tome will just crumble. Felt the same way when we sold Hughes.

It won't matter if it comes down to it but I do think if there is a chance we bounce back relatively quickly from all this then I do think it relies on the academy mostly being intact. Spending is going to be tight for a good while and we are going to be under an embargo for a lot of it, what the academy provides is arguably talent that we wouldn't otherwise be able to acquire as well as (down the road) assets that can command a good fee to fuel further progress. 

16 minutes ago, Norman said:

I think some people literally think someone will buy us in the next few weeks and pay all the debts off, whilst financing a rebuild for League 1 in the summer

Not going to happen. 

Right now I'd snap your hand off at the first two. 

The sooner we get taken over and the debt cleared the sooner we can actually rebuild in some way even if the new owner doesnt want to throw money around. 

20 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

because then he was in good discussions with buyers and he underestimated the ability of the EFL to drag things out to spoil a sale

I understand that but surely even in that case you'd give yourself some wiggle room? Especially considering the on going nonsense with the EFL and we've already had several takeovers fallen through. 

It just seems needlessly reckless.

1 hour ago, sage said:

Yes. Turns down £2m for Buchanan and goes into administration less than 3 weeks later.

 

Just makes no sense. Even if we were confident of getting a takeover over the line, a judicious sale to give us more breathing room is just the smart thing to do given how apparently close we were to the edge.

27 minutes ago, jono said:

Whatever happens .. I don’t trust the EFL.

There is a nasty streak They could hit us time and again 12 now, another 9 later plus 3 for some other suspended punishment and anything else this vindictive self serving pompous excuse for representatives of all clubs can dream up. 

My only hope on that front is with us in admin, likely to go down and with MM out they feel like they've got their pound of flesh.

The thing I don't get is if we were so close to the wire why didn't we sell at all in the summer ? It feels like we've had repeated assurances that the finances at the club were fine but we needed to adjust because of FFP and yet..... It certainly feels like MM is cutting and running with no takeover immenint. The only other scenario I can think of is this all to force the EFL's hand in some way but it seems unlikely.

To think of all the garbage owners and crap times it's the self professed fan that sinks into administration. The thing that I find galling alongside the sheer amount of non playing staff who are going to get shafted by this is I think there is a serious chance the academy gets torn up.

Not only are we likely to lose some of the most talented young players we've had to come through the academy, the academy itself is likely going to be seen as a way of reducing costs. If that happens then we probably don't recover for a seriously long time.

The best hope I've got right now is we get taken over quick enough that that structure stays in place and we can retain some of "senior" lads that came through that system. If that happens, even if we lose most of the the senior playing staff that didn't come through the academy I think there will be a foundation from which we can recover even in league 1.

I haven't watched the game yet but there is something poetic in the goalscorers today. An academy lad and an old pro sticking by us when he didn't have to vs a player from an era that led to the current mess. 

13 minutes ago, Spanish said:

the EFL don't sign off on accounts or summaries, read DC2

Ok change what I said to something along the lines of "We had reasonable cause to believe that what we were doing with ammortisation was acceptable"

9 minutes ago, Rambam said:

Are you forgetting we’ve won two in twenty two? Draws won’t keep us up. Neither will the inability to score, you know, GOALS.

I'm not sure what you are arguing against here most of the post is saying we will be down with anything like a substantial penalty. Is it the off the cuff comment about being capable of 56 points all things being equal ? Because I think with everyone back fit, the style of play becoming more cohesive and a transfer window where we could actually operate that wouldn't be that far fetched.

14 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

Am I missing something here? If we'd really broken the rules and fallen foul of FFP, then surely it's an automatic points deduction. If that's the case then yes we deserve to be punished.

But if not, then why should we accept a big points penalty? It seems to me like we have an accounting policy they don't like, but they said it was fine years ago and have changed their mind.

Not saying the club are completely innocent, because we're not, but have we actually broken any rules? Have we gone over the limit? 

I say we keep fighting, 9 points or more and we've had it.

I think it's something along the lines of with the change to ammortisation we would have perhaps gone over a few years ago but the EFL signed off on at the time and so the club were acting under the impression they were ok. If the club thought they were going to fall foul of it at the time they would have time and options to react to it and bring us back in line. Perhaps mixed in with the club proposing a different ammortisation policy than the one we've used previously and the EFL insisting on straight line.

1 minute ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

If the reports are accurate I see one of two reasons why the club have caved in;

1. They just want to get some form of resolution in place so it can be appealed, and the club think that we have sufficient grounds to do so.

2. The situation is far worse than any of the fans have been led to believe and the club are bang to rights, in which case everything we have been told by people from the club over the last 4/5 years is total nonsense. 

Alternatively the EFL is leaking it to appear strong to the wider league and perhaps appease some of the more vocal complainers, maybe with a dash of trying to pressure us.

9 points or more, quite likely sinks us. It would mean needing around 56 points, which perhaps controversially I think all things being even we are potentially capable of. The issue is it will be a big lead weight around our neck affecting moral and the ability to bring anyone in.

6 points would be tough and a big effort to overcome. 

3 points we can likely stomach and still survive especially if it means we are free to operate in the transfer window (might end up being better for us than an embargo all season).

2 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Good points well made ?

Would agree that we don't want Morrison rigid at 10 but like you say, he has been too deep at times (because of Shinnie's presence). Ravel does have that ability to create/hurt teams in that final third & my concern is it'd be all too easy for Stoke to sit in if we have too many numbers deep playing in front of them. Our biggest problem is scoring goals & to be honest, creating clear cut chances. This is something that needs sorting quickly as defensively the 'psychological pressure' will intensify if we know we're unlikely to score - I think this started to seep into the team the last 10/15 games of last season.

Knight's presence should help though & further on the horizon we have the prospect of Bielik alongside Bird in midfield which should release Ravel even more to make meaningful final 3rd contributions (without losing control of midfield/possession)

I mostly agree. My hope is the goals start to come once the build up properly clicks into place consistently because the times that it has done we've looked like creating chances (hull, first half Middlesbrough, first half forest), we've just not taken them.

Most of the time when we've not created chances this season we are struggling to get things going at all. The best example of this is the second half against forest when we get penned in and our build up broke down, we stopped creating at the same frequency but the few times we did break through we cut them open.