Ghost of Clough

Wildsmith

Nelson   Forsyth   Cashin

Ward   Smith   Thompson  Sibley

Adams

Mendez-Laing   Waghorn

Subs: Evans, Bradley, Wilson, Elder, Fornah, Hourihane, Blackett-Taylor

2 hours ago, ap04 said:

I only said that we were poor on Saturday (and fortunate with some results as a side note), why are you showing me this?

As for the points you made, "chances per game" are not "goals per game", they are goals + all missed chances; and yes the first team is more likely to be better, GD is a better predictor than points eg. see here or here.

Because you talk gobbledygook and that's how your post read 🤷‍♂️

Net chances per game against the league's average opponent on neutral ground. By xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

We play Wycombe on the back of games against Portsmouth, Blackpool, and Peterboroguh (Pizza Cup Final). You'd expect them to be a bit tired after than run, especially if the Peterborough game goes to extra time.
We will then have Leyton Orient, Cambridge and Carlisle, you'd expect all of them to have nothing to play for by then.

I think if we're top 2 after the Portsmouth game, we'll win automatic promotion.

I can't beleive "we only just got promoted" was part of their defence 😂

1 minute ago, ap04 said:

You mean because the ball sneaked past Waghorn's armpit the tactics and players were a small triumph, but had it not they would have been a mild letdown. Makes perfect sense.

17 minutes ago, Crewton said:

People keep referring to this still taken from a video as if it's conclusive evidence that Waghorn  handled the ball (maybe it also hit the hand of the Bolton defender that is 'obviously' immediately behind Waghorn and in the path of the ball 😄) but at full speed Waghorn lifts his arm to let the ball pass. Odd that no-one from Bolton has produced a slo-mo clip that would show frame-by-frame what actually happened, isn't it? 😏

I'm now more than ever convinced that the goal wouldn't have been disallowed even under VAR, because whatever faint touch the ball got on Waggy's arm (it certainly wasn't vice-versa) didn't affect the outcome.

Waghorn was claiming it as his goal in the changing room, which confirms some contact was made. That could be his arm or his torso 😉

5 wins from our final 7 will guarentee top 2 in my opinion. That would put us on 93 points, and means the teams behind us could only get away with drawing 1 game and winning the rest.

4 wins from our final 7 would be 90 points and would be touch and go. With each side only being able to lose 1 and draw 1.

2 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

Only 1,662 tickets left for Carlisle, around 500 sold today.

I think we need daily updates for all 3 games 

I think I see a change in pace and direction of the header as it gets close to the goal. Does this mean it'll be credited to Waggy? 😅

Fozzy is the perfect partner to Cashin. He knows Cashin won't win 100% of his duels, and is always ready to cover for the few he loses. Nelson also did it well when we were playing a back 4.

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

The question before us is, with Gayle presumably out, do we recall Dajaune from Gateshead for the Northampton game?

Or do we rely on Waghorn, or NML, or try to play without a recognized striker?

Leave him out on loan.

Waghorn will do the job for now, with Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen chipping in. Washington will return to the squad soon. Collins only a couple of weeks off too, hopefully around the time Gayle is back too.

3 minutes ago, ap04 said:

All I see is Wildsmith's hand 30cm to half a metre away from the bar with the ball virtually on the by-line, so unless his reflexes are something approaching the speed of light he ain't getting there.

Or, Wildsmith had full sight of the ball from when the corner was taken, and could see it was never going to go in...

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

Net chances per game against the league's average opponent on neutral ground. By xG, demonstrably the best metric to evaluate past performance in the public domain once you haven't followed a team's games.

'Net chances per game based on xG' has us above Bolton

Net chances per game based on actual goals has us top of the league (also known as goal difference).

Of course, total goals for/agaisnt over a season doesn't show how consistent a side is. They could win 5-0 one week, then loss 1-0 the next and have an average of 2.5vs0.5 and have 3 points.
Meanwhile, another side could win 2-1 one week and 1-0 the next resulting in 1.5vs0.5 but have 6 points.

Your method of judging sides says the first team is better, depsite having half the points.

@Carl Sagan and AmericanRam?

3 minutes ago, angieram said:

They must have some good centrebacks if he can't get in the adult team, the form he's in.

It's difficult to put a player from League 1 into the international side when others are playing regularly at a higher level. I expect him to break into their national side next season.

Is that @DarkFruitsRam7 in the bottom left?

No doubt our Bolton friend will be back to let us know we cheated and conned the ref for another goal this week.

Since Stevenage are the only other top 10 side in action next weekend. A win for us against Northampton will be a big psychological impact on the other sides around us. We would move to just 2 points off Portsmouth, 7 clear of Bolton, and a mighty 10 points ahead of Peterborough and Barnsley.

17 minutes ago, WystonRam said:

Me too but the screen did say 358, ESPN have it as 538. 358 would suit me better for our pub guess the gate competition though 😃

My guess was 32,500 😅

2 minutes ago, WystonRam said:

538 ?

Yes. 32,538 is what I heard the announcer say

5 yellows in quick succession and a penalty to Forest after 39 mins. 1-1. 2nd half underway.

9 minutes ago, O'hare is the goat said:

Who is the trialist?

No idea. But they're a winger.

Price

IGordon   Osayande   Cox   Gough

Eames   Hawkins

Trialist   McAndrew   Osong

Oguntolu

1 hour ago, angieram said:

Cox would be the one but he's not match-fit. Came on for about 10 minutes last night. 

That's right. He was out since November and only just came back. He made his return to action last Saturday, playing 77 minutes for the U18s. He's also starting in the game vs Forest which just kicked off.