ap04

As opposed to us peppering their goal with one chance every 45 minutes.

Well known football argot for "not deserved" (along with "hard fought" "gritty" "professional" "great fight/resilience/character/defending" "winning when not at one's best" etc.)

Since when is 'on target' a good measure of how close the attempt is to a goal? The bulk of these are comfortable saves and not a threat at all, whereas more than half of near moments are narrow misses not covered by the keeper. In fact yesterday all of the big chances for either side other than the goal were off target ones.

That would be fine if you and some of those liking your post hadn't also thought Peterborough away was thoroughly deserved or a demolition job following this
 

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.
A more accurate assessment would be:
2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)
Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg
Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8
2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)
Chances net: +1.72 pg
Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4
Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

They are net zero on xG, probably just very lucky.

They are net zero on xG, probably just very lucky.

This is because we have had 2 fortunate wins -Fleetwood at home and Peterborough away-, and have not missed out on any we deserved to win. 10 points is about where we should be.
And same goes for the goals, we have created about 40 chances which equate to 10 or 11 goals. Last season, first 8 games we had created similar (38) but conceded fewer (31 to this year's 40, skewed somewhat by red cards).
Also 8 games is a decent sample so there is nothing to suggest we will play better and this is not our actual level (other than injuries perhaps?)

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

You can safely ignore results, they are just noise.
 
                  chances 22/23    chances 23/24
Burton a              -0.5            +4.5
Oxford h             +1.5              0
Fleetwood h       -1.5             -0.5
Peterborough a  -1.5            -1.5
Bolton a              +2.5           ~-0.5 without red    
Portsmouth h     +2.5           -2
Total                   +3                0
Entire season     +2.05pg     +0.31pg

This is because we have had 2 fortunate wins -Fleetwood at home and Peterborough away-, and have not missed out on any we deserved to win. 10 points is about where we should be.
And same goes for the goals, we have created about 40 chances which equate to 10 or 11 goals. Last season, first 8 games we had created similar (38) but conceded fewer (31 to this year's 40, skewed somewhat by red cards).
Also 8 games is a decent sample so there is nothing to suggest we will play better and this is not our actual level (other than injuries perhaps?)

This is because we have had 2 fortunate wins -Fleetwood at home and Peterborough away-, and have not missed out on any we deserved to win. 10 points is about where we should be.
And same goes for the goals, we have created about 40 chances which equate to 10 or 11 goals. Last season, first 8 games we had created similar (38) but conceded fewer (31 to this year's 40, skewed somewhat by red cards).
Also 8 games is a decent sample so there is nothing to suggest we will play better and this is not our actual level (other than injuries perhaps?)

This is because we have had 2 fortunate wins -Fleetwood at home and Peterborough away-, and have not missed out on any we deserved to win. 10 points is about where we should be.
And same goes for the goals, we have created about 40 chances which equate to 10 or 11 goals. Last season, first 8 games we had created similar (38) but conceded fewer (31 to this year's 40, skewed somewhat by red cards).
Also 8 games is a decent sample so there is nothing to suggest we will play better and this is not our actual level (other than injuries perhaps?)

I have worked on this sort of thing (not with xG but a more accurate model) and this is what you are looking for
 

 

 
As you can see goals scored are only correct 39% and goal margins only 28% of the time.

I have worked on this sort of thing (not with xG but a more accurate model) and this is what you are looking for
 

 

 
As you can see goals scored are only correct 39% and goal margins only 28% of the time.

I have worked on this sort of thing (not with xG but a more accurate model) and this is what you are looking for
 

 

 
As you can see goals scored are only correct 39% and goal margins only 28% of the time.

As Kokosnuss mentioned above it 100% comes off the defender, and I am yet to see one like this being given.
However the above is just a recommendation to Uefa from a panel, no guideline has been issued. From the little I read the official Ifab/fa rules here still mention nothing on deflections just unnatural position, or the 2nd case here for example, so maybe penalty was correct after all.

She got them both wrong (penalty we were awarded and hand ball for the equaliser).
 
It was not, it as miles onside.

 

She got them both wrong (penalty we were awarded and hand ball for the equaliser).
 
It was not, it as miles onside.