2023/24 Player Ratings: Running Averages

[Ellafella]

Thanks to those of you who take the trouble of providing your player ratings. Figure 1 and Table 1 gives the running average after the first 4 league games of this season {Wigan, Burton Albion, Oxford Utd and Fleetwood}. I will in due course update to show all of the games but it is good to see how the ratings change over time. A brief summary:

See Figure 1 & Table 1 above. After 4 games, Rooney topped the average rating table with 7.13 {he of course only played in 2 games before his knee injury}. The first column in Table 1 and the chart is sorted in descending order so as you can see Forsyth is second best, followed by Thompson, Wilson and so on. The "average rating" is the average score out of 10 that forum members have given to players after each game. Some players have played fewer games; the average score is a 6.0 so those players with a score above 6.0 (Bird upwards in Column 1, Table 1) are "above average" after 4 games. The other columns in Table 1 show variations around the average. Ratings are of course essentially subjective and what is notable even within games is that the same player can receive quite a range of scores depending upon the poster. The Standard Deviation (SD)  is one form of average deviation from the mean of ratings received by the player. So, it's notable that Rooney has the smallest SD (0.51) suggesting there has been a better consensus amongst posters of his average rating than say for Collins, who has attracted the largest SD. In part, that's because Collins was awarded a score of 1/10 by one poster for 1 game. The maximum & minimum show the highest and lowest ratings that the player has attracted {and hence the Range}. I will resist analyzing this to death; it's not a pure measure of performance; player favourites, and the confounding effect of match result along with other "noise" will detract from it being anyway near perfect, but the logic is also that some kind of consensus should emerge the more ratings are provided as the season unfolds. 

The next analysis that I'll post should be interesting because of course some players have attracted significantly higher ratings in the later games (eg Nelson, Waghorn).

If you click on the images, you should see a clearer pop-out. Any additional analyses requests, just let me know. I will get into greater detail as the ratings build. 

@Boycie or @David - please can this be pinned near the top so that I can add to it to build the picture as the season progresses.     

 

 

[inter politics]

Where are the running averages?! Warne will be disappointed 

[Ellafella]

20 minutes ago, inter politics said:

Where are the running averages?! Warne will be disappointed 

I think he keeps his own spreadsheet on those 😲

[Guest]

Very interesting @Ellafella - whether a labour of love or not, thanks for all the effort you’ve gone to.

Maybe as a side project in future years we could have a prediction competition on which players will end the season with the highest standard deviation! (Collins seems an obvious candidate… I would have expected Bird too as one who divides opinion)

[Ellafella]

6 minutes ago, jameso said:

Very interesting @Ellafella - whether a labour of love or not, thanks for all the effort you’ve gone to.

Maybe as a side project in future years we could have a prediction competition on which players will end the season with the highest standard deviation! (Collins seems an obvious candidate… I would have expected Bird too as one who divides opinion)

That’s a good idea @jameso; I’m looking forward to when we are 18 games in and I can start to incorporate SPC analysis into the ratings because they will flag up statistically significant changes in ratings and illustrate player form. Before then of course we will see changes with regard to Nelson and Collins, as well as Waghorn. 
 

In the current analysis, it’s clear that Rooney and Thompson were set for impressive seasons potentially until injury intervened. Cruel luck on both of them but especially Thompson who lost his way last season but who started the season like a man possessed and determined to hit the heights again. 

[sage]

35 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

That’s a good idea @jameso; I’m looking forward to when we are 18 games in and I can start to incorporate SPC analysis into the ratings because they will flag up statistically significant changes in ratings and illustrate player form. Before then of course we will see changes with regard to Nelson and Collins, as well as Waghorn. 
 

In the current analysis, it’s clear that Rooney and Thompson were set for impressive seasons potentially until injury intervened. Cruel luck on both of them but especially Thompson who lost his way last season but who started the season like a man possessed and determined to hit the heights again. 

I'm not sure you can say it's clear then we're going to have impressive seasons based in such a small sample size, particularly Rooney.

When young players come in and do well they tend to get overworked initially and as young players are more prone to inconsistenty 

[RoyMac5]

Is there a 'known effect' for marking goal-scorers more highly, given that goals win games. Or is there a similar 'bias' for clean sheets and keepers and, is that how it works? I'm not a stats type person tbh.

 

[Ellafella]

1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

Is there a 'known effect' for marking goal-scorers more highly, given that goals win games. Or is there a similar 'bias' for clean sheets and keepers and, is that how it works? I'm not a stats type person tbh.

 

Very good question @RoyMac5. I will look into this and get back soon. We may need to see more games yet before this emerges in the data but I do suspect we will see the goal scorer effect - may also see the GK effect too. Thanks for this question @RoyMac5.

[hintonsboots]

Excellent work.

Can you explain the rules of Go Johnny Go Go ?

[Srg]

I'm surprised Ward is so low, but guess when he was fit, we were particularly bad those first few games of the season.

Beyond that, I think it's pretty representative to how everyone has played.

[Ellafella]

37 minutes ago, hintonsboots said:

Excellent work.

Can you explain the rules of Go Johnny Go Go ?

Start on a pair. Declare any ace. Unless you have a King. Then lead with the 3 of Clubs…otherwise hold the 9…

[Ellafella]

43 minutes ago, hintonsboots said:

Excellent work.

Can you explain the rules of Go Johnny Go Go ?

 

[Jimbo Ram]

11 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Thanks to those of you who take the trouble of providing your player ratings. Figure 1 and Table 1 gives the running average after the first 4 league games of this season {Wigan, Burton Albion, Oxford Utd and Fleetwood}. I will in due course update to show all of the games but it is good to see how the ratings change over time. A brief summary:

See Figure 1 & Table 1 above. After 4 games, Rooney topped the average rating table with 7.13 {he of course only played in 2 games before his knee injury}. The first column in Table 1 and the chart is sorted in descending order so as you can see Forsyth is second best, followed by Thompson, Wilson and so on. The "average rating" is the average score out of 10 that forum members have given to players after each game. Some players have played fewer games; the average score is a 6.0 so those players with a score above 6.0 (Bird upwards in Column 1, Table 1) are "above average" after 4 games. The other columns in Table 1 show variations around the average. Ratings are of course essentially subjective and what is notable even within games is that the same player can receive quite a range of scores depending upon the poster. The Standard Deviation (SD)  is one form of average deviation from the mean of ratings received by the player. So, it's notable that Rooney has the smallest SD (0.51) suggesting there has been a better consensus amongst posters of his average rating than say for Collins, who has attracted the largest SD. In part, that's because Collins was awarded a score of 1/10 by one poster for 1 game. The maximum & minimum show the highest and lowest ratings that the player has attracted {and hence the Range}. I will resist analyzing this to death; it's not a pure measure of performance; player favourites, and the confounding effect of match result along with other "noise" will detract from it being anyway near perfect, but the logic is also that some kind of consensus should emerge the more ratings are provided as the season unfolds. 

The next analysis that I'll post should be interesting because of course some players have attracted significantly higher ratings in the later games (eg Nelson, Waghorn).

If you click on the images, you should see a clearer pop-out. Any additional analyses requests, just let me know. I will get into greater detail as the ratings build. 

@Boycie or @David - please can this be pinned near the top so that I can add to it to build the picture as the season progresses.     

 

 

Interesting that Cashin scores are so low 🤔

[Ellafella]

1 minute ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Interesting that Cashin scores are so low 🤔

After the first four games in the league - LWLW. 

[Ambitious]

Brilliant work - would love to see these for years past because I think you usually get a fantastic representation of true picture. Standard deviation is a great factor to highlight as it does highlight how some players are negatively viewed whereby bias could creep in. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Is there a 'known effect' for marking goal-scorers more highly, given that goals win games. Or is there a similar 'bias' for clean sheets and keepers and, is that how it works? I'm not a stats type person tbh.

 

Interesting question. For those of us who can't resist a good waffle when only the match ratings are required (🤣) I typically mention that I've added a 0.5 for a goal, that kind of thing. So yes, in my case, goalscorers do benefit, even though one could argue they're only doing their job. (Seems a bit unfair if I'm not adding 0.5 for consistently taking up good positions despite not being passed the ball while in those positions). Either way, unless and until @Ellafella prohibits such marking behaviour, I shall continue!

Edited September 29, 2023 by jameso

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Interesting that Cashin scores are so low 🤔

I can't remember exactly but I think I marked Cashin down a bit in some of the earlier games - his passing was a bit off but generally defensively sound. (He has been back to some of his best form in recent matches.) Maybe others saw it similarly for the first 4 matches of the season.

[Srg]

3 minutes ago, jameso said:

I can't remember exactly but I think I marked Cashin down a bit in some of the earlier games - his passing was a bit off but generally defensively sound. (He has been back to some of his best form in recent matches.) Maybe others saw it similarly for the first 4 matches of the season.

He has definitely not been his normal self this season, especially early as you say. Both he and Nelson's ratings must have been much better in the recent games.

[Carnero]

16 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Thanks to those of you who take the trouble of providing your player ratings. Figure 1 and Table 1 gives the running average after the first 4 league games of this season {Wigan, Burton Albion, Oxford Utd and Fleetwood}. I will in due course update to show all of the games but it is good to see how the ratings change over time. A brief summary:

See Figure 1 & Table 1 above. After 4 games, Rooney topped the average rating table with 7.13 {he of course only played in 2 games before his knee injury}. The first column in Table 1 and the chart is sorted in descending order so as you can see Forsyth is second best, followed by Thompson, Wilson and so on. The "average rating" is the average score out of 10 that forum members have given to players after each game. Some players have played fewer games; the average score is a 6.0 so those players with a score above 6.0 (Bird upwards in Column 1, Table 1) are "above average" after 4 games. The other columns in Table 1 show variations around the average. Ratings are of course essentially subjective and what is notable even within games is that the same player can receive quite a range of scores depending upon the poster. The Standard Deviation (SD)  is one form of average deviation from the mean of ratings received by the player. So, it's notable that Rooney has the smallest SD (0.51) suggesting there has been a better consensus amongst posters of his average rating than say for Collins, who has attracted the largest SD. In part, that's because Collins was awarded a score of 1/10 by one poster for 1 game. The maximum & minimum show the highest and lowest ratings that the player has attracted {and hence the Range}. I will resist analyzing this to death; it's not a pure measure of performance; player favourites, and the confounding effect of match result along with other "noise" will detract from it being anyway near perfect, but the logic is also that some kind of consensus should emerge the more ratings are provided as the season unfolds. 

The next analysis that I'll post should be interesting because of course some players have attracted significantly higher ratings in the later games (eg Nelson, Waghorn).

If you click on the images, you should see a clearer pop-out. Any additional analyses requests, just let me know. I will get into greater detail as the ratings build. 

@Boycie or @David - please can this be pinned near the top so that I can add to it to build the picture as the season progresses.     

 

 

Is there an easy way for you to see how the figures look if say the 3 highest and 3 lowest rating were removed each game (or even just the 3 lowest after a defeat!) as some players averages are falsely low due to people awarding 0s and 1s to players that they just don't rate (such as Collins)?

[Ellafella]

45 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Is there an easy way for you to see how the figures look if say the 3 highest and 3 lowest rating were removed each game (or even just the 3 lowest after a defeat!) as some players averages are falsely low due to people awarding 0s and 1s to players that they just don't rate (such as Collins)?

Thanks @Carnero; I’ll look at this and get back to you soon-ish.