2023/24 Player Ratings: Running Averages

[sage]

56 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Is there an easy way for you to see how the figures look if say the 3 highest and 3 lowest rating were removed each game (or even just the 3 lowest after a defeat!) as some players averages are falsely low due to people awarding 0s and 1s to players that they just don't rate (such as Collins)?

I used to ignore 0s and take off the highest and lowest outliers.

 

[Carnero]

2 hours ago, sage said:

I used to ignore 0s and take off the highest and lowest outliers.

 

At times I've been tempted to give a 9 or 10 to a player just to cancel out a 1 or 0, when they were actually worth a 5!

[Ellafella]

Player Ratings after 8 League Games

A big thanks to those dedicated Rams fans who provide player ratings. You are fantastic examples of knowledgable and dedicated supporters and I bow to you all <bows head in reverance>

I have now analysed the first 8 league games & compared player ratings with the first 4 league games and the data is presented in Table 2, Figures 2 and 3 below. It's difficult to make the visualisation clear hence I've experimented a little but arguably Table 1 is the simplest (and clearest).

Table 1 shows Player Name, Average Rating after 8 games and average rating after 4 games. It also shows the whole team average (6.14). There are a few things to mention: 

• Players have played a different number of games; some have played all 8, other just 2 games (eg Nyambe).
• Some players (eg Fornah) didn't feature in the first 4 games - so don't have a 4-game average (No, honestly!)
• The comparison will become more robust as the number of games increase; although some players may disappear forever (eg Embleton)

The Analysis

Nyambe & Thompson are joint top of the ratings after 8 games on 6.73; obviously they haven't played all of the games, so there may be a "restriction of range" effect in play (ie they have had less opportunity to have a bad game) but credit where credit is due. Thompson was earning some consistently impressive ratings in the couple of games just prior to getting injured - evidencing what a hugely impressive character he has given that he drifted right out of favour last season. I predict he will storm back again. We fans need to recognise the heart he has put into Derby County in his as yet short career. 

Nyambe - 2 games in and looking solid and a very good acquisition. Early days yes but he threaded a couple of "eye of the needle" type attacking passes V Camb Utd showing he has a brain for the game.

If you study the visualizations, you'll start to get a feel for what the data says - there won't be any surprises - and start to see how some players have "drifted out" (ie worse average after 8 games - eg NML) and others have "driven upwards". Some players are just bang average and consistent (eg Smith). 

I'll add regularly to this "running average". It will be mostly confirmatory and descriptive. I'm also about to show some SPC charts which will show trends / and form (ie when a player's scores improve / decrease significantly) - I'll focus on Nelson, Waghorn and Forsyth to begin with because they are the players who have shown significant change thus far.

For those of you who have asked specific questions, I will get around to answer them soon. It's just that after a 9 hour working day, I have spent the entire evening doing this (another 5 hours!). Although it's all simple stuff, it is time-consuming. 

  Once again, thanks for your ratings and comments. I love reading them. My favourite so far was a rating of 5 given to a player with the comment "Lost at sea!". It made me laugh out loud.   

 If you click on each image, you'll get a clearer "pop-out" to look at. Note Fig 2 and Fig 3 present the same data but I am unhappy with Fig 2 so I also provided Fig 3 to see if that was easier to read.  

     

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Ellafella

[sage]

Based on the ratings our best side is

                              Wildsmith

Nyambe        Rooney     Nelson     Fozzy

Wilson          Fornah       Tommo     Barkhuizen

                John-Jules    Waghorn

         

[Ellafella]

7 minutes ago, sage said:

Based on the ratings our best side is

                              Wildsmith

Nyambe        Rooney     Nelson     Fozzy

Wilson          Fornah       Tommo     Barkhuizen

                John-Jules    Waghorn

         

Interesting. It is noticeable how NML's average rating is one of those that has declined over the 8 games (ie was better 4 games in than 8 games in). Also, Cashin has started to show an improving rate, after a fairly dramatic "bomb" probably all caused by Brighton's alleged interest. He did have a couple of poor games (by his high standard) which he is now recovering from so it would probably be harsh to leave him out. But, if the numbers were given the job of selecting the team, this indeed is what it would be.   

Edited October 2, 2023 by Ellafella

[sage]

Our worst side on these stats is....

                    Wildsmith

Ward     Bradley     Cashin    Elder

NML   Embleton  Hourihane  Sibley

              Collins      Washington

 

Some artistic licence to put a balanced side out. Smith mentioned in dispatches.

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by sage

[Miggins]

Thanks for doing this, @Ellafella. It makes very interesting reading. Your efforts are much appreciated.🐏

[Ellafella]

6 minutes ago, Miggins said:

Thanks for doing this, @Ellafella. It makes very interesting reading. Your efforts are much appreciated.🐏

Thanks @Miggins , for your kind words. 

[angieram]

Brilliant,  as usual, Ellafella. I love this stuff! 

Firstly, it's all quite close, isn't it, with no single player taking the lead in consistently high scoring performances? We are where we are so far on the pitch this season, clustered around the average. 

My take is that Nelson will probably continue his upward projectory to become player of the season, unless one of the forwards goes on a scoring streak of didzy-like magnitude.

I have got to give a shout out to Fozzy, who continues to be deemed surplus to requirements by successive managers and ends up proving them all wrong. It really bugs me that he still hasn't got a song!

[RoyMac5]

6 minutes ago, angieram said:

I have got to give a shout out to Fozzy, who continues to be deemed surplus to requirements by successive managers and ends up proving them all wrong. It really bugs me that he still hasn't got a song!

Something to the tune of 3 Wheels on my wagon song?

"Ten years playing for Derby

And he's still leading the side

Craig Forsyth, Craig Forsyth

He's Derby and he's la la la la ..."

Nope I can't do these! 😄 

[Carnero]

3 hours ago, angieram said:

I have got to give a shout out to Fozzy, who continues to be deemed surplus to requirements by successive managers and ends up proving them all wrong. It really bugs me that he still hasn't got a song!

I'm sure I've heard one at some point:

🎶

He's been here for so long

He's never had a song

Craig Forsyth

Woah-oh-oh

Craig Forsyth

Woah-oh-oh

🎶

[Ellafella]

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

I'm sure I've heard one at some point:

🎶

He's been here for so long

He's never had a song

Craig Forsyth

Woah-oh-oh

Craig Forsyth

Woah-oh-oh

🎶

“…he’s got no song but he’s got a big dong! Oh Craig Forsyth…just ask his wife”

would be entirely inappropriate and unacceptable and would merely proliferate the number of chants that seem to fixate on the sexual anatomy of Derby players. 😲

Edited October 3, 2023 by Ellafella

[Anag Ram]

4 hours ago, Ellafella said:

“…he’s got no song but he’s got a big dong! Oh Craig Forsyth…just ask his wife”

would be entirely inappropriate and unacceptable and would merely proliferate the number of chants that seem to fixate on the sexual anatomy of Derby players. 😲

I remember little Willy Hughes 👌

[RoyMac5]

Has anyone made the joke about 'running' averages yet?

[Ellafella]

 

 

Once again thanks to those of you who take the trouble to post your player ratings each week - you're brilliant. I've caught up with the punching of all the data from the first 15 League games and Fig 1 and Table 1 give the numbers of the average aggregate team ratings for those 15 League games *. Fig 1 is an SPC chart (statistical process control). SPC charts show "common cause" and "special cause" variation in data - basically if there are significant differences in trend data. You can see from Fig 1 how the average aggregate ratings vary over the weeks - from 2 lowest scores of 86.7 (Oxford home and Stevenage away) up to 113.27 (Blackpool Away). What does that tell you? Probably just that ratings tend to be highest when we have won well and lowest when we have been roundly beaten (Oxford and Stevenage). In Fig 1, the heavy dark line is the overall average - so you can see when the Team has been rated "below average" (dots appear below the line) and "above average" (dots appear above the line). The dotted lines are the "control limits" (in an SPC x-bar chart, these lines are the average moving range of scores between the games. Any dots that appear "beyond" these limits, either above or below, show statistically significant differences. We will probably only see those if the Team's form shows a sustained improvement or a big reduction in performance. I've also calculated SD, Minimum, Maximum and Range so you can see how scores vary. So, when we won handsomly at Blackpool, there was still a difference of 12 between the highest and lowest aggregated rating.        

1. * Definition: The sum of ratings for all players given by each rater, divided by the number of ratings.

I'll post some more analysis during this week - including the average ratings for each player over the 15 games thus far from which we can see the ("statistically") best Team, based on DCFC Fans' Forum ratings. @sage noted this based on the 8 game point. 

Those of who who posted specific questions, I will look at those later this week, and post some answers.  

 

 

[Magicman]

On 02/10/2023 at 23:12, sage said:

Based on the ratings our best side is

                              Wildsmith

Nyambe        Rooney     Nelson     Fozzy

Wilson          Fornah       Tommo     Barkhuizen

                John-Jules    Waghorn

         

Based on other facts 1) Nelson is not left footed 2) JJ has not been fit yet 3) Prefer Bird over JJ as a no 10.

[Ellafella]

Apologies for the quality of the visual but they don't copy and paste very well. If you click on it you get a clearer version. 

Table 2 shows average ranks by players after 15 league games. The table gives Rank after 15 games and compares with rank after 8 games so you can see the "movers & shakers". I'll let you absorb the detail at your own will - apart from Nyambe who stays at #1; Bird 🐦has started to fly up the table and has elevated 11 places; Nelson has advanced 2 places; Waghorn has dropped 8 places...and so on.

The ranks/scores do seem to have "face validity" ie they fit in with my perceptions of players over recent games. The potential surprise is Hourihane who have advanced 3 ranks but still overall attracts a "below average" score - although by a very tiny amount.      

Edited November 6, 2023 by Ellafella

[Srg]

11 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Apologies for the quality of the visual but they don't copy and paste very well. If you click on it you get a clearer version. 

Table 2 shows average ranks by players after 15 league games. The table gives Rank after 15 games and compares with rank after 8 games so you can see the "movers & shakers". I'll let you absorb the detail at your own will - apart from Nyambe who stays at #1; Bird 🐦has started to fly up the table and has elevated 11 places; Nelson has advanced 2 places; Waghorn has dropped 8 places...and so on.

The ranks/scores do seem to have "face validity" ie they fit in with my perceptions of players over recent games. The potential surprise is Hourihane who have advanced 3 ranks but still overall attracts a "below average" score - although by a very tiny amount.      

This is actually pretty wild how accurate in general to reality (in my opinion) it's turning out. 

[Comrade 86]

Nice one @Ellafella Not too far off how I see it to be honest. A few above the median, a few under. Just need to get the unders to join the overs and we'll be ok 🙏

[sage]

So the current best side (with an attempt at a formation) is...

                                                Wildsmith

Nyambe                Nelson                            Cashin                  Fozzy

                                                    Rooney

                       Bird                                                     Tommo

NML                                         Waghorn                             Barkhuizen