Is expectation too high .

[Chris_Martin]

5 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

They haven't though. From February to the end of the season we averaged 1.37 points per game and are currently running at 1.5 - not great and probably nowhere near enough to make the playoffs. It's still early days and by the end of October we should probably get a better indication as to how the season will pan out.

What was the average ppg before February? I'm guessing a lot higher than 1.37, so therefore we have declined. 

[Walkley Ram]

7 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

What was the average ppg before February? I'm guessing a lot higher than 1.37, so therefore we have declined. 

50 points from 27 games, ppg of 1.85. 4th in the league, 9 points clear of 7th.

[lrm14]

1 hour ago, Archied said:

what stats do you mean consistently bad ?

Possession? often means bugger all 

xg stats ? Often means bugger all 

ect ect ect 

goals scored v goals conceded ? Means everything , in fact it’s the only thing that actually matters

points won? Means everything 

stats can only really tell you what you already know and can see with your own eyes 

Yup this is all true, stats are meaningless. This is why clubs that have adopted a data driven approach such as Brentford and Brighton have been struggling so much as of late.

Edited September 6, 2023 by lrm14

[Archied]

1 hour ago, Chris_Martin said:

Oh come on. Even you must realise that if we are consistently expected to concede more goals than we are expected to score, it is just not sustainable over a season.

by even you do you mean some poor silly old buffer that knows bugger all about football following derby for 50 odd years now the new wizzy stato s have come to town ,

oh come on even you must know that if I watch us play poorly going forward and in defence over a period we aren’t going to win many and any managers job is just not sustainable, enjoy your stats if that’s your thing but don’t think you’ve found some kind of holy grail that tells people what they can’t see with they’re own eyes 😂😂😂😂,

we’ve not made a great start , if it doesn’t improve then the manager goes , it really is that simple 

Plenty of people aren’t at that point with warne yet , some people think they can throw up this stat , that stat , this number , that number , scientific sounding letters like xg , gpgr, pddm xyzl ect ect , and we all go jeez these cats are experts , we better jump on that warne out bus pdq , jeez what were we thinking 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Archied]

1 hour ago, MadAmster said:

Here's some stats. We should have had 3, maybe 4 penalties. One given. They should have had 0 penalties but were given one for a foul that was outside the box. Their other goal took a lucky deflection. They couldn't have complained, despite all their possession, if we'd come away with a 3-0 or 3-1 win. Red card has since been rescinded. Ref was crap. Same bloke who gave Plymouth the penalty at theirs last season. 

Sorry the above doesn’t count if you’ve seen it with your own eyes , where your letters and numbers 😂

[Archied]

43 minutes ago, lrm14 said:

Yup this is all true, stats are meaningless. This is why clubs that have adopted a data driven approach such as Brentford and Brighton have been struggling so much as of late.

Stats arnt meaningless in my view , they play a small part but a part nonetheless, where your mixing me up is I’m replying to a few who think stats are EVERYTHING and tell you EVERYTHING you need to know  and if you follow them and spout a load of letters and numbers it somehow makes you a genius on some higher plain than the fans who turn up at games week after week , year after year , decade after decade 🤷🏻‍♂️,

when I feel it’s time for warne to go I will know and it won’t be stats that tell me , it will be goals for , goals against , points gained and lost and how I feel sitting in the ground

[Foreveram]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I enjoy many styles of play, not just what we had under Rosenior, including the more defensive style of play we have under Rowett. What we sometimes get under Warne can hardly be described as football.

Stats are the reason Brighton are now in Europe and Brentford are a top half Championship team. Arguably the two clubs the majority of our fanbase would like to emulate. Some people enjoy talking about stats,  others don't. As you're someone who doesn't, the simple solution is to ignore the posts from those who do because I won't stop posting them.

The biggest statistical reason why Brighton are where they are is the £500, million that Tony Bloom has put into the club, mostly in loans.

[Chris_Martin]

9 minutes ago, Archied said:

by even you do you mean some poor silly old buffer that knows bugger all about football following derby for 50 odd years now the new wizzy stato s have come to town ,

oh come on even you must know that if I watch us play poorly going forward and in defence over a period we aren’t going to win many and any managers job is just not sustainable, enjoy your stats if that’s your thing but don’t think you’ve found some kind of holy grail that tells people what they can’t see with they’re own eyes 😂😂😂😂,

we’ve not made a great start , if it doesn’t improve then the manager goes , it really is that simple 

Plenty of people aren’t at that point with warne yet , some people think they can throw up this stat , that stat , this number , that number , scientific sounding letters like xg , gpgr, pddm xyzl ect ect , and we all go jeez these cats are experts , we better jump on that warne out bus pdq , jeez what were we thinking 🤷🏻‍♂️

I really don't know what else to tell you, you seem set in your ways and don't really want to listen to other points. 

I know that stats aren't the be all and end all. I was using them to prove my points. I think it was ghost of clough that put the stats up of a lot of our things this season and they all suggested we were a mid table side. Surprise surprise that's where we are in the table. Amazing that. 

I am sure if the stats were available 30/40/50 years ago, they would have been used too.

[Archied]

Would anyone agree that even the simple shots on target stat can give a totally misleading slant on a game you havnt seen , 3 screamers that hit the post v v 3 never in a million years , keeper throws his hat on scuffs come to mind

[RadioactiveWaste]

A statistic is just a number.

What that number means and why is the question.

Statistics by themselves mean very little. The interpretation of statistics can be very powerful. It can also cause all sorts of confusion, wrong or flawed decisions, mis-understanding of the true situation.

You can generate a statistical correlation of number of pints sold in pride park to points per game. Would that be a useful statistic? Probably not for transfer decisions, possibly for the person who orders the beer, but the person who orders the beer probably has other far more useful statistics to help them order the right amount.

 

 

[Blondest Goat]

6 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

How we rank for a few stats:
Goals conceded - 15th
Expected goals against - 10th
Tackles - 7th
Interceptions - 13th
Clearances - 9th
Dribbles - 13th
Passes - 16th
Key passes - 10th
Shots - 13th
Expected goals for - 12th

The one shining light so far, mostly thanks to a bit of Waggy magic:
Goals scored - 3rd

Aimless hoofs - 1st??

[Tyler Durden]

8 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

I really don't know what else to tell you, you seem set in your ways and don't really want to listen to other points. 

I know that stats aren't the be all and end all. I was using them to prove my points. I think it was ghost of clough that put the stats up of a lot of our things this season and they all suggested we were a mid table side. Surprise surprise that's where we are in the table. Amazing that. 

I am sure if the stats were available 30/40/50 years ago, they would have been used too.

If we are a midtable side at the moment why would you need a raft of stats to prove that point?

Am sure everyone on here is capable of interpreting a league table without the need for stats to aid their understanding.

[Chris_Martin]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

If we are a midtable side at the moment why would you need a raft of stats to prove that point?

Am sure everyone on here is capable of interpreting a league table without the need for stats to aid their understanding.

I didn't. it was to show others how bad we are at the moment. The stats prove we are where we deserve to be. 

[Tyler Durden]

2 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

I didn't. it was to show others how bad we are at the moment. The stats prove we are where we deserve to be. 

I don't know the answer to this......but did the stats show from last season that we were the 7th "best" team in the league.

Also am sure others are able to decide how good or bad we are without the use of a raft of stats to do this. 

Not sure if the stats prove anything.

[Carl Sagan]

The question asked is if expectation is too high? I just wanted to remind the forum that before the start of the season, the forum "minimum expectation" for this season was:

promotion: 53%

playoffs: 44%

other: 3%

I suggest expectations are where they should be, but performances and results are well below. 

[Archied]

17 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

I really don't know what else to tell you, you seem set in your ways and don't really want to listen to other points. 

I know that stats aren't the be all and end all. I was using them to prove my points. I think it was ghost of clough that put the stats up of a lot of our things this season and they all suggested we were a mid table side. Surprise surprise that's where we are in the table. Amazing that. 

I am sure if the stats were available 30/40/50 years ago, they would have been used too.

Honestly I’m happy to listen to other points , where I argue is as you clearly state is you using stats to prove your points as they don’t paint the whole picture and can often be really misleading , I can’t tell you the amount of time I’ve seen match stats for games I’ve been at and they do not represent the game I’ve watched and feel sorry for fans who can’t get to see games and only have stats to go by ,

if you want warne gone , if you want derby to play a certain way then fine let’s all debate , it’s opinions but throwing these numbers out to show your right just doesn’t cut it for me 🤷🏻‍♂️,

you say your worried about how warne wants to play , me I’m more worried that warne says he wants us to play a certain way ( not what you say how he wants to play ) but at this point he’s not getting the team playing that way,

[Archied]

14 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

I didn't. it was to show others how bad we are at the moment. The stats prove we are where we deserve to be. 

Honestly , read that back and if you can’t figure why any season ticket holders , away followers , rtv watcher s might not think too highly of it then I’m at a loss😂😂😂

[FlyBritishMidland]

42 minutes ago, Archied said:

Stats arnt meaningless in my view , they play a small part but a part nonetheless, where your mixing me up is I’m replying to a few who think stats are EVERYTHING and tell you EVERYTHING you need to know  and if you follow them and spout a load of letters and numbers it somehow makes you a genius on some higher plain than the fans who turn up at games week after week , year after year , decade after decade 🤷🏻‍♂️,

when I feel it’s time for warne to go I will know and it won’t be stats that tell me , it will be goals for , goals against , points gained and lost and how I feel sitting in the ground

Lies, damn lies and statistics.  There’s a place for stats but you need the context.  You can have loads of possession, loads of passes and high pass completion rate but what does it mean?  Under previous managers we could have passed the ball between the GK and CB’s quite easily - statistically it looks great but where has it got you?

Goals, shots at goal, shots on target, tackles, possession are fair enough although I don’t think many Leicester fans complained about winning the league with roughly 30% possession on average.  But some of the stuff they come up with now like number of turnovers - what does that even mean?  And xG is the most complicated and pointless thing ever in my opinion.

[Blondest Goat]

49 minutes ago, Archied said:

Would anyone agree that even the simple shots on target stat can give a totally misleading slant on a game you havnt seen , 3 screamers that hit the post v v 3 never in a million years , keeper throws his hat on scuffs come to mind

Totally agree.  One of my pet hates is how this stat is rolled out to paint a false picture of how a team is performing.  Think it was used last year against Everton after they had had a couple of games where they had hit posts, crossbars and done everything but score.  

[DCFC Kicks]

4 hours ago, Curtains said:

 

Oh really 

Brilliant response.