Is expectation too high .

[alram]

1 minute ago, Foreveram said:

Yeah, three points off the playoffs and a whopping four points off the top two and only 40 more games to play, looks like we’ve blown it😂.

yes all is hunky dory, not like we have been playing like crap even when we have been getting points

[Tamworthram]

43 minutes ago, alram said:

have you lot seen the division this year? It is completely pants summed up by Stevenage topping it & two of the relegated teams having big points deductions

 

It won’t be an easier year to challenge that top 2 and it’s pretty poor we are not looking like putting up a fight to do so

 

i don’t think that’s high expectations I think it should be a basic requirement with a club like Derby at this level. Look at the clubs in the current top 10 position 

Who said we’re not looking like putting up a fight? Which relegated clubs have “big” points deductions?

Regarding the current top 10, you do realise that last season, after 6 games, Cambridge were 7th (even Accrington were just outside the top 10 at 11th) and Barnsley were 16th? So you can’t read too much into the league table at the moment. Stevenage may be top now but, if I was a betting man, I’d wager they will not be in the top 6 come the end of the season.

It’s not been a great start but there’s a long way to go.

[Foreveram]

6 minutes ago, alram said:

yes all is hunky dory, not like we have been playing like crap even when we have been getting points

So seriously, what do you want done.

[Foreveram]

13 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Who said we’re not looking like putting up a fight? Which relegated clubs have “big” points deductions?

Regarding the current top 10, you do realise that last season, after 6 games, Cambridge were 7th (even Accrington were just outside the top 10 at 11th) and Barnsley were 16th? So you can’t read too much into the league table at the moment. Stevenage may be top now but, if I was a betting man, I’d wager they will not be in the top 6 come the end of the season.

It’s not been a great start but there’s a long way to go.

[alram]

2 hours ago, Foreveram said:

So seriously, what do you want done.

for us to look like we might challenge for promotion would be a start

[Foreveram]

3 minutes ago, alram said:

for us to look like we might challenge for promotion would be a start

Have you ever watched a horse race, it’s not necessarily the horse that jumps the first fence that wins the race.

[alram]

Just now, Foreveram said:

Have you ever watched a horse race, it’s not necessarily the horse that jumps the first fence that wins the race.

i totally agree, i am not saying we wont. i am just saying we should be challenging this year because the league is so weak

 

but if we continue how we are doing we wont even challenge the playoffs

[Foreveram]

2 minutes ago, alram said:

i totally agree, i am not saying we wont. i am just saying we should be challenging this year because the league is so weak

 

but if we continue how we are doing we wont even challenge the playoffs

Well for all our sakes I hope everyone at the club is working hard to get us to where we want to be, and as a supporter our job should be to encourage this in a positive manner and not just be negative about the past, but that’s just my opinion.🙂

[Tyler Durden]

3 hours ago, alram said:

i totally agree, i am not saying we wont. i am just saying we should be challenging this year because the league is so weak

 

but if we continue how we are doing we wont even challenge the playoffs

I'm just waiting for someone to trot out the line we should be beating teams like (put any L1 club here) at home then my misery will be complete 

[Van der MoodHoover]

On 08/09/2023 at 10:19, Archied said:

I’m with you on that but for me my biggest bug bear is trying to use it as a reliable prediction tool , yes it can be an indicator but an indicator at best , things change so fast in football, players click and un click in the blink of an eye , we see this regularly from half to half let alone game to game , they are interesting but people put far to much store in them

I think what you want to see is the distribution of the differences between xG and actual goals.

What I would expect that to look like is a normal (gaussian) curve, with a expected value close to 0. The dispersion of the curve will tell you something about how frequent "freak" results are, like our one v Peterborough where we scored 4 but expected less than 1.

[Archied]

2 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

I think what you want to see is the distribution of the differences between xG and actual goals.

What I would expect that to look like is a normal (gaussian) curve, with an expected value close to 0. The dispersion of the curve will tell you something about how frequent "freak" results are, like our one v Peterborough where we scored 4 but expected less than 1.

now your cooking 👍😀

[ap04]

On 15/09/2023 at 17:01, Van der MoodHoover said:

I think what you want to see is the distribution of the differences between xG and actual goals.

What I would expect that to look like is a normal (gaussian) curve, with a expected value close to 0. The dispersion of the curve will tell you something about how frequent "freak" results are, like our one v Peterborough where we scored 4 but expected less than 1.

I have worked on this sort of thing (not with xG but a more accurate model) and this is what you are looking for

 

 

 

As you can see goals scored are only correct 39% and goal margins only 28% of the time.

[Van der MoodHoover]

6 hours ago, ap04 said:

I have worked on this sort of thing (not with xG but a more accurate model) and this is what you are looking for

 

 

 

As you can see goals scored are only correct 39% and goal margins only 28% of the time.

But it also shows how unlikely our result against Peterborough was - it was a sort of "once in a blue moon" type of outcome. It shouldn't be tegarded as a new dawn.

Great analysis BTW.....I was quite surprised how symmetrical the distribution is 👍

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

But it also shows how unlikely our result against Peterborough was - it was a sort of "once in a blue moon" type of outcome. It shouldn't be tegarded as a new dawn.

Great analysis BTW.....I was quite surprised how symmetrical the distribution is 👍

Over a season, I think the majority of clubs are within 10% of their xG, and 99% are within 30%.

[Van der MoodHoover]

57 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Over a season, I think the majority of clubs are within 10% of their xG, and 99% are within 30%.

It was the volatility of that statistic at an individual game level that I found interesting.

I interpret the chart as simply saying that in the majority of games xG is a reasonable proxy for actual goals, but there is a low chance of an outlier in either direction. We've had a positive outlier in Peterborough, but we really shouldn't expect more results like.

Smoothing out results over the season gets you to the statistic you quoted... equally valid.