The Ukraine War

[BaaLocks]

10 hours ago, Highgate said:

Outside Crimea and Donbas is there any significant support for Russia?  Zelensky's approval ratings seems to be over 90% in the rest of Ukraine, so that doesn't seem to leave much room for many Ukrainians supporting the Russian invasion.  

Crimea is obviously a strange case as it is historically Russian, given to Ukraine as a gift by Khrushchev in the 50s. After the annexation in 2014 it seemed it was destined to remain under Russian control, whether the West or Ukraine acknowledged it or not.  Ironically the 2022 invasion of Ukraine  has now threatened Crimea's Russian status, with many Ukrainians now fully determined to win back Crimea too. 

War has been simmering in the Donbas since 2014, which it has to be said is probably as much Ukraine's fault as Russia's.  Plenty of blame to go around. There is has been significant movement of Russian people into the area of the last century so it seems natural that there is support for Russia there too, and clearly they weren't happy with the Maidan Revolution in 2014  

However when it comes to the Russia Invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there is no problem in deciding who is wrong and who is right.  Russia and Putin are wrong and the Ukrainian defenders are right.  That's not simply a Western 'narrative', that's a straight-forward interpretation of the Nuremburg Principles.  Invasion is the ultimate war crime, and people have the right to defend their country from invading armies..by lethal force if necessary.  

The general split is that everything east of the Dneiper is Russian Orthodox and looks towards the east, everything west is Catholic and looks to the west.

All I am saying is that it is great that we (generic :-)) seem to confidently know what every part of Ukraine wants when we drape our flags over the front porch, maybe ask some of these regions where they want to belong - especially Crimea.

If Zelensky wanted this over tomorrow all he would have to say would be that he would be open to a referendum in the three disputed regions, watched over by third parties to prevent fraud, and he would comply with the result. I can all but guarantee Putin would agree to that also. Of course Russia is every part of wrong in their invasion, both in undertaking it and the actions since, but it is a naive view to believe that just defeating the Russians will resolve the situation indefinitely.

To your last paragraph, not everyone views it as an invasion, some view it as a liberation. Russia has not invaded (and I do see it as an invasion btw) to expand (or, more correctly, create) an empire. They have done this to liberate those in Eastern Ukraine they see as their rightful citizens. You can disagree with that point, but you likely won't progress the discussion until you understand it.

[Crewton]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

I can all but guarantee Putin would agree to that also.

Well, he would, wouldn't he? He doesn't lose many elections...can't think why...

Russia is a huge country, geographically. They've had no problems demanding (and in some cases, forcing) that Ukrainians trapped in cities that they've been laying siege to escape to Russian held territory rather than into Ukraine. In the past, the USSR forcibly transported whole populations to Siberia and similarly remote regions as a deliberate policy (Ukraine in the 1930s, Chechens and Ingush during WW2), and they've done it again to Tatars in Crimea since the annexation. What is stopping them simply inviting any citizens of Ukraine who want to be under Moscow's rule to re-settle in Russia? If it's just about protecting 'their' people, why not do that rather than destroy Ukrainian cities, threaten Nuclear devastation and world food supplies (grain etc) AND kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians, including many thousands of Russian-speakers? It. Makes. No. Sense.

And it is an invasion - stop calling it anything else - when there's Russian troops, tanks, artillery on internationally recognised (by everyone but totalitarian and puppet/Client states) Ukrainian territory, even 'disputed' areas, it's a f'kin invasion, and it's illegal.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Crewton

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Crewton said:

And it is an invasion - stop calling it anything else - when there's Russian troops, tanks, artillery on internationally recognised (by everyone but totalitarian and puppet/Client states) Ukrainian territory, even 'disputed' areas, it's a f'kin invasion, and it's illegal.

 

2 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Russia has not invaded (and I do see it as an invasion btw) to expand (or, more correctly, create) an empire.

Helps if you actually read posts before replying to them. And yes, legal invasions are generally the way to go - to pick up on your tautological conclusion.

As for the rest, thx for the pocket lecture on Soviet history - Orlando Figes, Simon Sebeg Montefiore and others would be proud.

Three points though:

1: You incorrectly conflate the U in USSR with Russia. Pretty basic error but you're not the first and won't be the last.

2: Russian actions against Crimean Tatars are deplorable and reprehensible, but even bodies supporting and documenting their discrimination do not suggest deportations are happening since annexation. I'm 99% sure you'll find some post suggesting they do, I'm just saying it's a stretch beyond even what those who are the voice in opposition are claiming.

3: Again, read the post before going into full bore "they are trying to blow the world up" maybe try to get to the section of your Wikpedia cut and paste to see that Russia has been claiming, consistently, that areas of Ukraine are their rightful territory and have been since before 1991, 1954 or whichever date you choose to reference. They have been trying to resolve this since before Feb 23rd, nobody woke up on that date and said "Anyone bored? I fancy invading Ukraine. Let's do it!". For Russians, this is their rightful land, stretching back to before Khruschev signed it away. 

And, again, I come back to the point - it doesn't matter one bit if I personally feel Crimea should be part of Russia, Ukraine or bongo-bongo land. The point is that many Russians (and many Crimeans and Ukranians) do in the same way many Brits believe Gibraltar, Falklands or Diego Garcia is theirs. In the way that many Chinese believe Taiwan is theirs. It. Makes. Sense. To. Them.

[Highgate]

2 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

The general split is that everything east of the Dneiper is Russian Orthodox and looks towards the east, everything west is Catholic and looks to the west.

All I am saying is that it is great that we (generic :-)) seem to confidently know what every part of Ukraine wants when we drape our flags over the front porch, maybe ask some of these regions where they want to belong - especially Crimea.

If Zelensky wanted this over tomorrow all he would have to say would be that he would be open to a referendum in the three disputed regions, watched over by third parties to prevent fraud, and he would comply with the result. I can all but guarantee Putin would agree to that also. Of course Russia is every part of wrong in their invasion, both in undertaking it and the actions since, but it is a naive view to believe that just defeating the Russians will resolve the situation indefinitely.

To your last paragraph, not everyone views it as an invasion, some view it as a liberation. Russia has not invaded (and I do see it as an invasion btw) to expand (or, more correctly, create) an empire. They have done this to liberate those in Eastern Ukraine they see as their rightful citizens. You can disagree with that point, but you likely won't progress the discussion until you understand it.

I'm aware that Russian separatists in the Donbas region, who have been fighting against the Ukrainian government since 2014, will consider the Russian army's actions in their area a liberation rather than an invasion.  That's fairly obvious I would have thought.  Before the invasion of Ukraine started about six months ago, most analysts though that if there was going to be an invasion it would be limited to the Donbas region.  Very few predicted the scale of the madness that Putin was set to unleash.  Shelling of Ukrainian cities, military columns heading towards Kiev, and since then a gradual occupation of most of the Ukrainian coastline, and an advance inland in areas far beyond the Donbas.  In other words, a full scale invasion of a sovereign state. 

It's true that Ukraine was a divided state in terms of whether it's people wanted to orientate themselves toward the West or towards Moscow, it seemed to be something approaching a 50/50 split.  That can be seen by the number of people who used to vote for the pro Russian Yanukovych about a decade ago.  But I think someone would be making a huge mistake if they were to equate a Ukrainian voter's previous support for leaning towards Moscow with their support for a Russian invasion or unification with Russia. Those are drastically different things.  The vast majority of those Ukrainians who were pro-Russian were still supportive of independent Ukraine separate from  Russia. 

One thing Putin will succeed in doing is turning Ukrainians towards the West.  Desire to join the EU and NATO has grown since the invasion began and animosity towards Russia will no doubt last for generations, including among those east of the Dnieper.  Putin is driving a wedge between the people of Russia and Ukraine. 

A referendum for the Donbas region and Crimea is not a bad idea in principal.  Provided it was fair. It's hard to imagine how it could be fair in a Russian controlled area, but let's just imagine that it was.  What would happen if the Donbas were to vote to remain in an independent Ukraine, which polls suggest it would do (provided those people who have been forced to flee the region would be allowed to return for the vote).  Do you think Putin would simply accept the result and agree that Donbas was then rightfully part of Ukraine?  If so, then I think we have vastly differing opinions of the man.  I also doubt that he would withdraw his troops from southern Ukraine in return for two referendums in the Donbas and Crimea, but that's another question. 

[TuffLuff]

3 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

The general split is that everything east of the Dneiper is Russian Orthodox and looks towards the east, everything west is Catholic and looks to the west.

All I am saying is that it is great that we (generic :-)) seem to confidently know what every part of Ukraine wants when we drape our flags over the front porch, maybe ask some of these regions where they want to belong - especially Crimea.

If Zelensky wanted this over tomorrow all he would have to say would be that he would be open to a referendum in the three disputed regions, watched over by third parties to prevent fraud, and he would comply with the result. I can all but guarantee Putin would agree to that also. Of course Russia is every part of wrong in their invasion, both in undertaking it and the actions since, but it is a naive view to believe that just defeating the Russians will resolve the situation indefinitely.

To your last paragraph, not everyone views it as an invasion, some view it as a liberation. Russia has not invaded (and I do see it as an invasion btw) to expand (or, more correctly, create) an empire. They have done this to liberate those in Eastern Ukraine they see as their rightful citizens. You can disagree with that point, but you likely won't progress the discussion until you understand it.

You say Russia have gone to liberate Eastern Ukrainians, but that doesn’t work with Russia’s strategy at the start of the war. They tried to take Kyiv, flew rockets into Odessa in the South West, rockets into Lyiv in the east. They’ve hit civilian targets, mass graves found in Bucha, civilian corridors being attacked. What does any of that have to do with liberating Eastern Ukrainians?

[Crewton]

27 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

 

Helps if you actually read posts before replying to them. And yes, legal invasions are generally the way to go - to pick up on your tautological conclusion.

As for the rest, thx for the pocket lecture on Soviet history - Orlando Figes, Simon Sebeg Montefiore and others would be proud.

Three points though:

1: You incorrectly conflate the U in USSR with Russia. Pretty basic error but you're not the first and won't be the last.

2: Russian actions against Crimean Tatars are deplorable and reprehensible, but even bodies supporting and documenting their discrimination do not suggest deportations are happening since annexation. I'm 99% sure you'll find some post suggesting they do, I'm just saying it's a stretch beyond even what those who are the voice in opposition are claiming.

3: Again, read the post before going into full bore "they are trying to blow the world up" maybe try to get to the section of your Wikpedia cut and paste to see that Russia has been claiming, consistently, that areas of Ukraine are their rightful territory and have been since before 1991, 1954 or whichever date you choose to reference. They have been trying to resolve this since before Feb 23rd, nobody woke up on that date and said "Anyone bored? I fancy invading Ukraine. Let's do it!". For Russians, this is their rightful land, stretching back to before Khruschev signed it away. 

And, again, I come back to the point - it doesn't matter one bit if I personally feel Crimea should be part of Russia, Ukraine or bongo-bongo land. The point is that many Russians (and many Crimeans and Ukranians) do in the same way many Brits believe Gibraltar, Falklands or Diego Garcia is theirs. In the way that many Chinese believe Taiwan is theirs. It. Makes. Sense. To. Them.

OK, hands up, I'll apologise for inferring that you didn't consider it an invasion - my error. 

Well done though for fitting in yet another sneery reference to Wikipedia, as if I haven't already read reasonably widely on both Russian and Ukrainian history. Is that really the best you can do? GTF

FYI, I conflate the USSR with current day Russia, because Putin is trying to make it so, or at least neuter the states around him to the extent that they do as he says or else, just like good old Uncle Joe and his successors used to. And, of course, allot of Russians regard parts of Ukraine (or indeed the whole of Ukraine) as Russian territory : it's what is drummed into them from an early age, unrelentingly. The cruel irony is that they talk of Ukrainians being their 'brothers and sisters' whilst calling them Nazis at the same time, even the Jewish bloke who leads them. It's very sad.

Around 4M Ukrainians died in the Holodomor, possibly up to 2M in other parts of the USSR. Small wonder that a majority of Ukrainians today want to be protected from policies dictated from Moscow by another tyrant.

Meanwhile, on the issue of the Crimean Tatars, here's a link to those perennial friends of the West, Human Rights Watch, reporting in 2017 on significant intimidation and effectively ethnic cleansing of a people who've been there far longer than the Viking hordes from Moscow. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/14/crimea-persecution-crimean-tatars-intensifies

 

[BaaLocks]

58 minutes ago, Crewton said:

And, of course, allot of Russians regard parts of Ukraine (or indeed the whole of Ukraine) as Russian territory : it's what is drummed into them from an early age, unrelentingly.

Thank you - that's my point. No more, no less.

58 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Around 4M Ukrainians died in the Holodomor, possibly up to 2M in other parts of the USSR. Small wonder that a majority of Ukrainians today want to be protected from policies dictated from Moscow by another tyrant.

No debate, no challenge, no suggestion they should relent. But see above. And a section - I won't even claim it a majority / minority or other wish to be part of of Russia. Which is why Ukraine just saying "ah but this is our land now, and we are going to restrict use of your language, ban Russian males from coming here, not prosecute those who burn Russian citizens alive" is far from welcome by those people. Imagine - and try and cast your mind back to Feb 22nd before the invasion - living in a country where you are not able to talk to a policeman in the language you have grown up with and has been spoken in your part of Ukraine for centuries.

58 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Meanwhile, on the issue of the Crimean Tatars, here's a link to those perennial friends of the West, Human Rights Watch, reporting in 2017 on significant intimidation and effectively ethnic cleansing of a people who've been there far longer than the Viking hordes from Moscow. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/14/crimea-persecution-crimean-tatars-intensifies

Which doesn't mention deportation - I agree with you that this is abhorrent and I don't try to defend it for one second. But you said that they had resumed deportations, that is not the case. 

58 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Is that really the best you can do? GTF

Check page one of this thread, post one by David. He's pretty clear on refraining from personal insults, them's the rules my lover.

[BaaLocks]

2 hours ago, TuffLuff said:

You say Russia have gone to liberate Eastern Ukrainians, but that doesn’t work with Russia’s strategy at the start of the war. They tried to take Kyiv, flew rockets into Odessa in the South West, rockets into Lyiv in the east. They’ve hit civilian targets, mass graves found in Bucha, civilian corridors being attacked. What does any of that have to do with liberating Eastern Ukrainians?

Depends what your tactics are - taking the battle to Kyiv doesn't suggest they ever wanted to take Kyiv. And while I don't agree with the atrocities you highlight (or dispute them) this is war, both sides are guilty on many levels, but it doesn't detract from the reason behind the action - to liberate what they believe is rightfully theirs.

[BaaLocks]

2 hours ago, Highgate said:

Putin is driving a wedge between the people of Russia and Ukraine.

Agree with all that post, would suggest also one of Putin's main aims is not just to drive a wedge between Russia and Ukraine but also straight down the middle of Ukraine, to effectively cleave the country into those that he perceives as wanting to be part of Russia and those that don't - that has been clear in many of his early speeches, the "you are either with us or against us" approach.

[Ram-Alf]

Fit Everest...Fit the best.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

Russian businessman who criticised Ukraine war dies - reports

The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia's biggest privately held oil producer, has reportedly died after falling out of a hospital window. 

Russian news agency Interfax said Ravil Maganov fell out of the window of the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow. 

It quoted a source as saying law enforcement officials were on the scene. 

Lukoil is one of the few Russian companies to openly criticise the invasion of Ukraine.

In March, the board had called for the "soonest termination of the armed conflict" and expressed "sincere empathy for all victims".

"We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy," it said.

[Reggie Greenwood]

14 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Fit Everest...Fit the best.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

Russian businessman who criticised Ukraine war dies - reports

The chairman of the board of Lukoil, Russia's biggest privately held oil producer, has reportedly died after falling out of a hospital window. 

Russian news agency Interfax said Ravil Maganov fell out of the window of the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow. 

It quoted a source as saying law enforcement officials were on the scene. 

Lukoil is one of the few Russian companies to openly criticise the invasion of Ukraine.

In March, the board had called for the "soonest termination of the armed conflict" and expressed "sincere empathy for all victims".

"We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy," it said.

A bit like the witnesses testifying against Marinikas in Greece. He is innocent but they still get shot by someone 

[GenBr]

On 31/08/2022 at 10:16, BaaLocks said:

The general split is that everything east of the Dneiper is Russian Orthodox and looks towards the east, everything west is Catholic and looks to the west.

All I am saying is that it is great that we (generic :-)) seem to confidently know what every part of Ukraine wants when we drape our flags over the front porch, maybe ask some of these regions where they want to belong - especially Crimea.

If Zelensky wanted this over tomorrow all he would have to say would be that he would be open to a referendum in the three disputed regions, watched over by third parties to prevent fraud, and he would comply with the result. I can all but guarantee Putin would agree to that also. Of course Russia is every part of wrong in their invasion, both in undertaking it and the actions since, but it is a naive view to believe that just defeating the Russians will resolve the situation indefinitely.

To your last paragraph, not everyone views it as an invasion, some view it as a liberation. Russia has not invaded (and I do see it as an invasion btw) to expand (or, more correctly, create) an empire. They have done this to liberate those in Eastern Ukraine they see as their rightful citizens. You can disagree with that point, but you likely won't progress the discussion until you understand it.

Everything west of the Dnieper is not catholic - not even close. You are correct that that region of Ukraine looks more towards the west, but the vast majority of Ukraines population are Orthodox Christians and even the minority of Catholics that exist in the country still use a lot of Orthodox rights.

Areas such as the Crimea may very well vote to join Russia if a referendum was held, but Ukraine should not be expected to lop off parts of its country because somebody decided to launch an unsuccessful military invasion of their country. If Russia loses this war it will be a very long time, if ever, before they would be in a position to try it again. Putin will not survive a defeat and the Russian nation will have far greater problems to deal with if they are pushed out of Ukraine. Yes Russia may eventually try again, but with a collapsing population and miniscule economic power they are likely going to face the same result. 

Your last paragraph is not entirely correct. Russian foreign policy is entirely based on securing more defensible borders for themselves. The Soviet Union controlled virtually all of the necessary gates into the Russian sphere. Modern Russia only controls a handful. Securing Ukraine is not enough for them - they would need to push into Moldova as well to anchor the border on the Carpathians. They control the Crimea for now, but they also want to push back into central Asia to secure the central asian corridor and ideally into Poland to secure the polish gap. Most of the Russian elite base their foreign policy goals on the works of Dugin, which is frankly stupid, but thats the world we live in.

[Crewton]

Yes, it always sounds a bit whiny when Putin or one of his cheerleaders claim that the Russians fear "being surrounded" and "threatened" by NATO when their only land border with NATO is shorter than the one they have with their new friends China, and they've consistently boasted about the terrible power of their latest weapons systems and their willingness to nuke the f'k out of us. Shouldn't it be us that are fearful? 

[alexxxxx]

On 31/08/2022 at 14:05, TuffLuff said:

You say Russia have gone to liberate Eastern Ukrainians, but that doesn’t work with Russia’s strategy at the start of the war. They tried to take Kyiv, flew rockets into Odessa in the South West, rockets into Lyiv in the east. They’ve hit civilian targets, mass graves found in Bucha, civilian corridors being attacked. What does any of that have to do with liberating Eastern Ukrainians?

Tbh when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 they did the same.. got to the suburbs of tblisi. Eventually withdrew to South Ossetia.

[Crewton]

Something strange going on in Moscow right now according to reports on twitter. 

 

[Van der MoodHoover]

1 hour ago, Crewton said:

Something strange going on in Moscow right now according to reports on twitter. 

 

I don't follow that platform. What are the rumours? 

[BaaLocks]

On 01/09/2022 at 12:55, GenBr said:

Everything west of the Dnieper is not catholic - not even close. You are correct that that region of Ukraine looks more towards the west, but the vast majority of Ukraines population are Orthodox Christians and even the minority of Catholics that exist in the country still use a lot of Orthodox rights.

Areas such as the Crimea may very well vote to join Russia if a referendum was held, but Ukraine should not be expected to lop off parts of its country because somebody decided to launch an unsuccessful military invasion of their country. If Russia loses this war it will be a very long time, if ever, before they would be in a position to try it again. Putin will not survive a defeat and the Russian nation will have far greater problems to deal with if they are pushed out of Ukraine. Yes Russia may eventually try again, but with a collapsing population and miniscule economic power they are likely going to face the same result. 

Your last paragraph is not entirely correct. Russian foreign policy is entirely based on securing more defensible borders for themselves. The Soviet Union controlled virtually all of the necessary gates into the Russian sphere. Modern Russia only controls a handful. Securing Ukraine is not enough for them - they would need to push into Moldova as well to anchor the border on the Carpathians. They control the Crimea for now, but they also want to push back into central Asia to secure the central asian corridor and ideally into Poland to secure the polish gap. Most of the Russian elite base their foreign policy goals on the works of Dugin, which is frankly stupid, but thats the world we live in.

Fair point on the first paragraph - correction accepted.

Last paragraph is conjecture, no challenge on you feeling my version is not as you see it but your conclusions drawn are really quite extreme in your analysis of Russian foreign policy - way, way beyond what most political analysts (inside and outside Russia) are concluding.

[BaaLocks]

On 01/09/2022 at 16:36, Crewton said:

Yes, it always sounds a bit whiny when Putin or one of his cheerleaders claim that the Russians fear "being surrounded" and "threatened" by NATO when their only land border with NATO is shorter than the one they have with their new friends China, and they've consistently boasted about the terrible power of their latest weapons systems and their willingness to nuke the f'k out of us. Shouldn't it be us that are fearful? 

Depends if you actually read / listen to what they have said. The Kremlin confirmed, as late as March of this year on CNN, that the nuclear option is one they possess but is strictly reserved for when their very existence is threatened. And there is nothing new in the relationship between China and Russia, far from it. The Russian border with NATO has got a lot bigger as a result of this conflict, with Finland joining. It is what it is, as we write the whole invasion seems to be backfiring on them. Many will rejoice in that, but you can be sure it will not lead us to a more peaceful and stable global position.

Putin spoke recently in Vladivostok about how the West is all being played by USA - I don't think it is an understatement to say all his anger and bile is towards America rather than any European power. He is right to feel angry on that point, it doesn't justify his actions but the 'Leaders OF The Free World' have been playing power games in and around his back garden since 1991 and I do appreciate why that is so infuriating. Zelensky was empowered in a "we've got your back son" way in the breakdown of the Minsk protocol - maybe nobody expected Russia would react in the way they have but you don't go and just invade your neighbour (and spiritual cousin of a thousand years standing - at least in the East) without good reason.

But just look at the dollar today, and see how Franklin D played Churchill and others in WWII ad you will see who is the real winner of this conflict as we stand. Uncle Sam!

Edited September 11, 2022 by BaaLocks

[BaaLocks]

10 hours ago, Crewton said:

Something strange going on in Moscow right now according to reports on twitter. 

 

Don't believe the hype, it's preparations for Moscow City Day.......

Seems all those parades, magicians and bands are going to party us into submission.......

[GenBr]

3 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Fair point on the first paragraph - correction accepted.

Last paragraph is conjecture, no challenge on you feeling my version is not as you see it but your conclusions drawn are really quite extreme in your analysis of Russian foreign policy - way, way beyond what most political analysts (inside and outside Russia) are concluding.

Sorry the last paragraph is not conjecture at all. Nor is beyond what most political analysts are concluding - certainly not inside Russia and not for most outside either.

Russian foreign policy goals are pretty universally accepted. Not sure why you think otherwise or what you actually think their goals are, but defensible borders has been the driving force behind Russian expansionism for the past 300 years. It was the goal under the tsars, it was the goal under Stalin and now it is the goal for Putin. I would love to hear your counter thpugh as to why Russua likes to attack all of its neighbours.