The Ukraine War

[BaaLocks]

4 minutes ago, sage said:

How do we know there isn't a want for democracy. Maybe people are just scared to clamour?

We don't, you are right. I can tell you that in all my time of living and working in Russia I never really heard it raised as the most pressing need - and people do speak freely, it's not 1936 any more. The clamour is for an apartment, a car, a job, travel and general betterment in their lives.

I guess I was just trying to make the point that Western democracy is not always the answer and wherever we seem to have tried to implement it then it has pretty much always failed, or come at huge human cost.

[Stive Pesley]

20 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

I guess I was just trying to make the point that Western democracy is not always the answer and wherever we seem to have tried to implement it then it has pretty much always failed

As an aside, I've spent quite a lot of time in the former Yugoslavian countries - and their "Yugonostalgia" is very real. They know they were freed from a dictatorship but there are *some* parts of that way of life they now realise were much better than what they have now. For example the comment I always remember was "everyone had a house, and a job, and food to eat. No one was allowed two houses, because why would one person need two houses? Apart from Tito (laughter)"

Same with friends I have who grew up in East Germany - for every horrendous tale of the authoritarianism if you stepped out of line, they also miss the feeling of not being in some squid game type rat race

Probably humanities greatest failing that we've never been able to get this right one way or the other

[Tamworthram]

52 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Russia, or rather Putin, needs expansion to justify their military investment. Their population is in terminal decline so the only option for them to grow as an economy is to expand. If sanctions do force them to withdraw, which is a possibility, I fear it would only cause them to look elsewhere or regroup. I don't have the answer to what it the alternative because sanctions are almost step one in what is needed, but the chances of them having a positive impact is almost zero in my eyes. Russia could survive for decades under sanctions if needed, indeed they have been doing for years now which is why they have been seen to most Russians as a bit 'm'eh, what's new?'.

Just out of interest, how do you know most Russians are reacting as “meh, what’s new” and how are you so certain they could survive for decades? As I say, current sanctions are far greater than ever seen before. If the sanctions don’t cause sufficient hardship (sadly for the general population but surely also the economy as well) to force Russia to step back then I agree the positive impact will be zero. However, I suspect they will have an impact.

IMO (as I said, I’m no economist) the sanctions will have an important impact on their economy and restrict its expansion. If they were to look elsewhere then their options are limited. NATO members are obviously out of the question as are China, Pakistan and India. So that only leaves the likes of Finland, (any attack on which would surely result in at least a strong response as seen for Ukraine) or the remaining former republics outside of their current sphere of control/influence. Would there really be sufficient to be gained from invading those? He’d also have to be insane to consider returning to Afghanistan or taking on Iran.

Again, just out of interest, and you may have answered this already or prefer not to answer now (which I totally respect. I have found our debates informative, interesting and mature), but is there a reason you’re far more knowledgeable about this subject, and Russian history in general, than the rest of us put together and, forgive me for suggesting it, you seem to be the strongest voice for putting forward the Russian point I view? 

[BaaLocks]

26 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

As an aside, I've spent quite a lot of time in the former Yugoslavian countries - and their "Yugonostalgia" is very real. They know they were freed from a dictatorship but there are *some* parts of that way of life they now realise were much better than what they have now. For example the comment I always remember was "everyone had a house, and a job, and food to eat. No one was allowed two houses, because why would one person need two houses? Apart from Tito (laughter)"

Same with friends I have who grew up in East Germany - for every horrendous tale of the authoritarianism if you stepped out of line, they also miss the feeling of not being in some squid game type rat race

Probably humanities greatest failing that we've never been able to get this right one way or the other

To tie this together with @sage's comments on why they are not clamouring for democracy, here are a few examples of things in place in Russia at the moment. Compare this with the support we (and others less fortunate than ourselves) get from our government and maybe the trade they are prepared to sign with their leaders isn't so far off after all.

• Last New Year every child got the equivalent of £50 as a New Year's gift. You didn't have to apply for it, it was paid automatically on the digital card that they all have. Imagine how the Daily Mail would react to that one!
• In Moscow there is a programme called Active Citizen, where the public are allowed to vote and suggest on infrastructure improvements
• Puhskin's card, that allows students £30 of pre-payment to be spent on theatre, museums and concerts
• Last year, sunflower oil prices suffered inflation. The government capped prices, paying suppliers any losses to ensure it wasn't passed on to consumers
• During the pandemic, all hospital workers and medics working on C-19 had their salaries doubled
• All pensioners are automatically enrolled into a programmed called Long Life. Nothing to do with milk, it offers free classes of all sorts, inc. exercise, education etc

Alongside this, many, many Russians have prospered in the past 20 years. For many, why would they want to throw this away for 'democracy'?

Slightly off topic of the thread but thought it would help. I guess my point is that it is so predictable that within a few days this is no longer just about Ukraine but the narrative now turns to somehow freeing Russia and offering them the democracy that actually many of them are not even asking for. It's just so arrogant for us to believe we have the best model and everyone else has to do it our way.

[BaaLocks]

9 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Just out of interest, how do you know most Russians are reacting as “meh, what’s new” and how are you so certain they could survive for decades? As I say, current sanctions are far greater than ever seen before. If the sanctions don’t cause sufficient hardship (sadly for the general population but surely also the economy as well) to force Russia to step back then I agree the positive impact will be zero. However, I suspect they will have an impact.

IMO (as I said, I’m no economist) the sanctions will have an important impact on their economy and restrict its expansion. If they were to look elsewhere then their options are limited. NATO members are obviously out of the question as are China, Pakistan and India. So that only leaves the likes of Finland, (any attack on which would surely result in at least a strong response as seen for Ukraine) or the remaining former republics outside of their current sphere of control/influence. Would there really be sufficient to be gained from invading those? He’d also have to be insane to consider returning to Afghanistan or taking on Iran.

Again, just out of interest, and you may have answered this already or prefer not to answer now (which I totally respect. I have found our debates informative, interesting and mature), but is there a reason you’re far more knowledgeable about this subject, and Russian history in general, than the rest of us put together and, forgive me for suggesting it, you seem to be the strongest voice for putting forward the Russian point I view? 

1: Fair enough, I can't say 'most Russians' but I have spoken to my wife's family over the past few days, plus friends, and that is very much their view.

2: Reason I have some insight? See point one! I've lived and worked in Russia as well. It makes me one voice, I do just want to try to point out that there is a lovely country, lovely people and a working system behind all of this (one that in many ways works better than our own or that of countries like the US). Even up until last week I would have described myself as something of a sympathiser of the way Putin ran the country, though that has obviously changed in the past week.

What I abhore is the way the politicians and media seem to now want to use this for opportunity. Even the silliness of the Tube strike message posted earlier in this thread shows how that happens, how we now see opportunity to not just end the Ukraine situation but to topple Putin, demonise Russia and impose yet more sanctions and restrictions on a country that many of us still view through the same lens as we did when they were in the Soviet Union. Isabel Oakenshott, posting that our fast response has been due to Brexit, also shows just how quickly people can be to take such horrible activities and reframe there for their own advantage.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BaaLocks

[Malagaram]

On 27/02/2022 at 15:43, ketteringram said:

Anybody think he's not mad enough to use it?

The last time a similar situation to this arose,1944,Hitler was found with a bullet through his head in Berlin,whose to say a Russian Dictator will not be found like a rat in a sewer in Moscow,with the same ending as Hitler,there will come a time he will become so unpopular,this is how it will finish.

[Norman]

Putin is a Bamford. I couldn't give a duck if he capped sunflower oil prices or gave kids some money for New Year. 

He is currently invading a country, sending young lads to their death on a lie. He's killing civilians, he's killing economies, he's killing a democracy. 

The bloke doesn't like the West. He doesn't like democracy, he doesn't like freedom of speech, he doesn't like opposing views and he certainly doesn't recognise he is currently committing War Crimes. He poisons and imprisons dissenters. 

Going on about the hypocrisy of the West does not excuse the invasion of another country. Going on about how the average Russian is better off than they were 20 years a go, when they have enormous oil and gas reserves does not paint the whole picture. Dianne Abbott could probably run up a reserve even with her Maths skills.

Zelensky is going to die. He knows that. It's the only way he has a chance of saving his country. Its the choice he took. If he fled, we would already be seeing Russian flags high above buildings in Kyiv. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Norman

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

Alongside this, many, many Russians have prospered in the past 20 years. 

Indeed - if you look at the wealth inequality figures for 2022 - Russia is in the same ballpark as the US and the UK. Yes it's only one measure, but a pretty telling one. Given the number of oligarchs we hear about, I was expecting their rating to be far worse than ours

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/wealth-inequality-by-country

13 minutes ago, Norman said:

Putin is a Bamford. I couldn't give a duck if he capped sunflower oil prices or gave kids some money for New Year. 

Worth pointing out that I didn't read the stuff about price caps etc as a defence of Putin in any way. It was in response to a questions about what sort of life the average Russian citizen experienced, and whether that would make them favour "western democracy" over what they have now. 

 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Stive Pesley

[Norman]

1 minute ago, Stive Pesley said:

Indeed - if you look at the wealth inequality figures for 2022 - Russia is in the same ballpark as the US and the UK. Yes it's only one measure, but a pretty telling one. Given the number of oligarchs we hear about, I was expecting their rating to be far worse than ours

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/wealth-inequality-by-country

Worth pointing out that I didn't read the stuff about price caps etc as a defence of Putin in any way. It was in response to a questions about what sort of life the average Russian citizen experienced, and whether that would make them favour "western democracy" over what they have now. 

 

 

 

I don't see it as a defence. I said I couldn't give a duck. It's like the Saudi regime. 

It really doesn't take the brightest leader to make the average person better off when you have huge natural resources that are high in demand. 

I don't see caps on prices and a few classes for old people as a something that should be applauded. It should be the minimum expected. As is not going to war. 

The most incompetent leader could do what Putin offers his population, unless someone can help me convince me otherwise. 

[BaaLocks]

5 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Worth pointing out that I didn't read the stuff about price caps etc as a defence of Putin in any way. It was in response to a questions about what sort of life the average Russian citizen experienced, and whether that would make them favour "western democracy" over what they have now. 

Yup, I can't reply directly to Norman's quotes as I have them on block. Some people are just not worth engaging with and, for me, he/she falls in that category. The reply you quoted reassured me I have made the right decision.

[Stive Pesley]

16 minutes ago, Norman said:

I don't see caps on prices and a few classes for old people as a something that should be applauded. It should be the minimum expected. As is not going to war. 

The most incompetent leader could do what Putin offers his population, unless someone can help me convince me otherwise. 

No argument from me - I have direct experience of living under a succession of incompetent leaders who have not even achieved that bare minimum

 

[Norman]

1 minute ago, Stive Pesley said:

No argument from me - I have direct experience of living under a succession of incompetent leaders who have not even achieved that bare minimum

 

But that's exactly how I feel about World leaders. We would be hypocrites not to realise this. Tony Blair and Iraq, for example. 

That, however, does not excuse or become an answer for what is going on right now.

I get why Russian people may want life to carry on under Putin. But in my opinion, any incompetent leader could do a similar job. 

The Saudi regime are doing a fantastic job if we're going down this route. 

[Guest]

21 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Why would Russia invade Finland? Despite a catastrophic war with them in 1939 there has been no interest since they gained independence in 1917.

To your point on sanctions, Russia has an estimated €600bn of currency reserves, plus significant natural reserves. As an earlier poster said, their GDP is actually small so that will go a long way. Cuba has shown that sanctions impact but don't destroy those who are resilient enough to carry on. The only people who will suffer are the Russian people, just received notification that first friend has lost her job with BP on their exit from Russia.

I know, simple answer, retreat back into Russia then Mr Putin and this will all be solved. I'll tell her to give him a call and make that point.

Have you visited Cuba?

[Highgate]

If anything good could come from this horror story....it would be that Putin might actually destabilize his own position in Russia. His popularity among younger Russians was already quite lukewarm at best (and that with an unrelenting barrage of propaganda in his favour).  If this becomes an unpopular war/occupation in Russia ...then surely his popularity will tumble even further. Not sure how the Russians would get rid of him even if they wanted to...but no leader, even the dictatorial kind, is invulnerable.  What a great benefit it would be Eastern European countries, the rest of the world and indeed Russia if he were to resign or be removed (assuming he wasn't replaced with more of the same).  Incidentally Putin is also the greatest single obstacle to a global consensus on Climate Change.....just another reason why everyone would be better off if he were to disappear.

[BaaLocks]

30 minutes ago, Monty said:

Have you visited Cuba?

Yes, but 25 years ago. I absolutely loved the place but I guess they make sure the tourists only see the bits they want you to. Probably a bit off topic to go further on that one.

[BaaLocks]

28 minutes ago, Highgate said:

If anything good could come from this horror story....it would be that Putin might actually destabilize his own position in Russia. His popularity among younger Russians was already quite lukewarm at best (and that with an unrelenting barrage of propaganda in his favour).  If this becomes an unpopular war/occupation in Russia ...then surely his popularity will tumble even further. Not sure how the Russians would get rid of him even if they wanted to...but no leader, even the dictatorial kind, is invulnerable.  What a great benefit it would be Eastern European countries, the rest of the world and indeed Russia if he were to resign or be removed (assuming he wasn't replaced with more of the same).  Incidentally Putin is also the greatest single obstacle to a global consensus on Climate Change.....just another reason why everyone would be better off if he were to disappear.

I can't disagree with you as I don't have a crystal ball but power vacuums are nearly always bad. I don't disagree that Putin has over stepped the mark, but we didn't oust Saddam after the first gulf war (debate freely whether that was a long term good move or not) or Syria with Bashar al-Assad - to name but two. Where we have - e.g. Afghanistan - it's hard to write it down as a success story.

So the question really is 'what is being fought for here'? The repulsion of Russian forces in Ukraine or the disposal of a leader that the West doesn't approve of? They are completely different agendas, the latter requires way, way, way more risk and investment than the first - I'd be amazed if we have the appetite for it (and the economic ability given the dent C-19 has had on countries like the USA).

if we're doing it for climate change we'd better get ready to take out at least China, India, Australia and the US as well then.

But, if you suggest that this might lead to the Russian people turning on Putin (not through civl war but through unrest and - yeah right - voting him out at the next election) then maybe. But surely then we are simply moving the death count from one country to another.

[Leeds Ram]

6 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

Excellent point, and you are 100% right in what you say. Yet, at least in modern Russia, there is no large scale clamouring for it - the people are happy to live under the trade in the same way they are in most of China.

There also hasn't been in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan yet Americans and the West push for it under the flag of 'manifest destiny'. Our belief that we have the say on how other countries rule themselves is at the heart of almost all conflicts in the last 50 years.

That's really not true about Syria or Iraq. In Afghanistan the situation has always been more complex but the vast majority were more than happy to see the back of the Taliban. The problem of course with measuring what people really want in Russia or China is the fear of saying the wrong thing means it's hard to measure the reality of public opinion. 

[Highgate]

10 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

I can't disagree with you as I don't have a crystal ball but power vacuums are nearly always bad. I don't disagree that Putin has over stepped the mark, but we didn't oust Saddam after the first gulf war (debate freely whether that was a long term good move or not) or Syria with Bashar al-Assad - to name but two. Where we have - e.g. Afghanistan - it's hard to write it down as a success story.

So the question really is 'what is being fought for here'? The repulsion of Russian forces in Ukraine or the disposal of a leader that the West doesn't approve of? They are completely different agendas, the latter requires way, way, way more risk and investment than the first - I'd be amazed if we have the appetite for it (and the economic ability given the dent C-19 has had on countries like the USA).

if we're doing it for climate change we'd better get ready to take out at least China, India, Australia and the US as well then.

But, if you suggest that this might lead to the Russian people turning on Putin (not through civl war but through unrest and - yeah right - voting him out at the next election) then maybe. But surely then we are simply moving the death count from one country to another.

Yeah...you are right power vacuums are potentially very dangerous.  Definitely not talking about the West attempting to remove him....just wondering whether his position within Russia may weaken as a direct result of this war. 

Again not suggesting taking out anyone...but as for climate change, Putin is the worst. China and India at least have plans for the future, that would, if actually implemented, make a big difference.  Putin is a climate change denier, has an economy based on fossil fuels...and he'd quite like Siberia to warm up a bit (the catastrophic amounts of methane that would release doesn't seem to bother him).

[BaaLocks]

11 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

That's really not true about Syria or Iraq. In Afghanistan the situation has always been more complex but the vast majority were more than happy to see the back of the Taliban. The problem of course with measuring what people really want in Russia or China is the fear of saying the wrong thing means it's hard to measure the reality of public opinion. 

OK, if you say so. One comment re: power vacuums - see the back of the Taliban you say?

As for Russia, the gulags shut down long ago. I don't say that political opponents are dealt with most seriously but they have a thing called social media there, public opinion is absolutely out there and we have seen that the last few days. Public opinion is absolutely possible, maybe not via state media but that is known and recognised. It's not a police state but, hey, keep piling on those KGB / FSB driven perceptions if it fits the agenda.

[Alph]

I just wish America and allies came under such intense scrutiny and one sided media reports. 

That's nothing to do with Putin or Ukraine or Russia. It's good to see the world unite against unjustified wars. Hopefully this can apply to other aggressive nations.

"Freedom and Democracy!" my backside. 

Freedom to choose America. Or be killed directly by them or by whoever they arm to fight you.