ARE WE THAT BAD OR UNLUCKY

[plymouthram]

As most teams have now reached or just gone past the halfway stage of the season, I've looked at some stats.

The Rams have coceded 25 goals so far this season, 15 teams have conceded more. That leaves 8 teams who have conceded less and 2 of them are not that far behind and have played less games than the Rams. We have kept 8 clean sheets, Norwich at the top have only kept 9 clean sheets.  We have dropped 10 points in matches by conceding a goal in the last 9 minutes of a match and some of them against teams who we were the better team on the day. Our bad figure is goals scored, a measely 16, which obviously means we lack a goalscorer.

I do believe with a striker found, no key players leaving in this transfer window, no going into administration we will climb the table into safety. The icing on the cake would be a takeover and some cash put in to the club, or are we going to be unlucky.

[Jram]

I definitely think we’re getting some luck but were owed it from earlier in the season where we had some atrocious luck

Hopefully we’ll finish where many on here predicted 14thish 

[europia]

Quite bad. The league table doesn't lie.....well not to that extent, anyhow. 

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

Think potency wise in attack we have been poor. That puts too much pressure on the defence when you can’t score. I believe our starting 11 is quite strong but our major problem is competition for places and squad depth; injuries affect us a lot and we don’t have many substitute options who can come and change games. Other teams seem to bring on effective players. 

[G-Ram]

First 6 or 7 games under Cocu we deserved to lose. We were lucky at Norwich with the pukki slip. But the games we lost we deserved to lose. That's what worried me at the time. Performances were poor. I never came away from them games thinking 'we've played well & unlucky to lose' we were really that rubbish. 

Rooney is turning it around & done well but you can't change things over night when you've been on the run we were on under cocu. 

Its no coincidence that were playing better & having a bit better luck. Usually what happens when youre a bit more positive 

 

[Ghost of Clough]

We also had 18 penalty shouts turned down in our first 18 games, a number of which were obvious. The Jozwiak 'offside' goal ruled out...

[Millenniumram]

I mean, it’s quite simple. We’re actually not that bad defensively, in fact, we’ve been extremely good defensively recently. Far better than our position shows. But we’re not where we are because of bad luck. We’re battling relegation because we’re entirely impotent up front. The worst attacking Derby side I’ve ever seen, in fact, arguably the worst attacking side I’ve ever seen. It’s a good job we have a good defence or we’d be dead already.

Improve our attack with some new signings, and we won’t have that bad a team. Leave things as they are, and we’ll still be very lucky to escape relegation.

[Tyler Durden]

If you believe that we've been unlucky over the course of half a season then you're a rampant delusionist.

We're where we are on merit.

[Parsnip]

Nothing unlucky about our league position. Dress it up how you like - we've been crap. 

Rooney's doing well though and I'm sure he'll have us mid table-ish at the close.

But "lack a goalscorer" makes it sound like buying a striker will solve all our problems - it won't. To properly progress I reckon Rooney needs 4 new forwards. 2 stikers and 2 wingers. Preferably in the next week or so.

[RadioactiveWaste]

We did have a bucket load of bad luck early in the season, but we've been crap as well.

The defense is better now, sort the attack out and we'll be OK in terms of staying up.

[RamNut]

21 games to go would yield 33 points at the current rate

The final total would therefore be @58 points and 13th 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

8 hours ago, Beetroot said:

Nothing unlucky about our league position. Dress it up how you like - we've been crap. 

Rooney's doing well though and I'm sure he'll have us mid table-ish at the close.

But "lack a goalscorer" makes it sound like buying a striker will solve all our problems - it won't. To properly progress I reckon Rooney needs 4 new forwards. 2 stikers and 2 wingers. Preferably in the next week or so.

The chances of us signing two strikers and two wingers in the next week are absolutely zero I'd say. We might get one striker in, if we are lucky. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

As for our league position, we are where we are because under Cocu we were absolute dross. Some bad luck along the way, but we've also had some luck go our way. QPR and Norwich away for example. 

The table doesn't lie. 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

Since Rooney took over we are 6th in the division. 

[Tyler Durden]

48 minutes ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Since Rooney took over we are 6th in the division. 

Just serves to highlight the absolutely scandalous start to the season under Cocu that we are still only out of the relegation zone due to a club beneath us incurring a points deduction.

[Malty]

To me this is so much about fitness. Under Rooney he emphasises again and again working hard. He had ten years under Ferguson, whose teams worked harder and were fitter than anyone. Hence the phrase fergie time.

that’s also why knight is the captain. He never stops running. Neither did Rooney as a player.

What that means is that we can look forward to a time when we will be the one scoring last minute equalisers and winners.

Under cocu, the emphasis was on ball control and skill and retaining possession. I’m fine with this, but it didn’t work and frequently never does. The main reason for this is simply that the players weren’t good enough. Tbh, they still aren’t. Our best route forward is to work our nuts off and get better in other ways. Better at set pieces at both ends for example.

COYR!!

[BondJovi]

I think it is only fair to look at our line up for the first game and what formed the nucleus for the first few games.

 

Marshall

Wisdom 

Forsyth

Clarke

te Wierik

Bird

Shinnie

Whittaker 

Sibley

Knight

Marriott

 

I remember Wisdom seeming to be distinctly off pace, took him a while to get back to it. Mike had a poor start.

Sibley and Whittaker are now bit part players, if that. Marriott binned off to Wednesday, not even worried about him scoring the goals to keep them up!

You would probably say only 5 of those are now regular starters. Moving on.

I think we were unlucky against Forest.  Deserved something from the Watford game, last min goal line clearance from beating Bournemouth. We played well enough first half and should have scored (more) against Huddersfield and Cardiff. But once we conceded in those games that was that. 

We still haven't solved our scoring problems enough, but we have sorted our defence, not that it was ever that bad but it is surprisingly good currently.

You put CKR in instead of Marriott for those first few games and that alone would see a big difference.

Sure we have had more bad luck than good. But I choose to hold those above the manager accountable for the awful start.

[RadioactiveWaste]

2 minutes ago, Malty said:

To me this is so much about fitness. Under Rooney he emphasises again and again working hard. He had ten years under Ferguson, whose teams worked harder and were fitter than anyone. Hence the phrase fergie time.

that’s also why knight is the captain. He never stops running. Neither did Rooney as a player.

What that means is that we can look forward to a time when we will be the one scoring last minute equalisers and winners.

Under cocu, the emphasis was on ball control and skill and retaining possession. I’m fine with this, but it didn’t work and frequently never does. The main reason for this is simply that the players weren’t good enough. Tbh, they still aren’t. Our best route forward is to work our nuts off and get better in other ways. Better at set pieces at both ends for example.

COYR!!

The phrase "Fergie time" was the habit of refs adding time above the indicated injury time if Man U were behind and chasing a goal. I think someone did analyse it at one point and found it was a real effect (and to a lesser extent, also happened with other top teams), but it was less that everyone thought at the time.

Agree with everything else in you post ?

[Spanish]

I think the recovery of fitness is easy to overlook.  Given the compressed season means it is difficult to do fitness training between games and build sufficient recovery time to ensure the starting 11 are sparking  on match day.  I guess that’s why the boss doesn’t do many subs seeing the match as effective fitness workout.  I guess those who don’t play get a tough fitness session the day after a game and the first 11 more focused on the technical elements.  Whatever is being done is being done well.

[RamNut]

1 hour ago, Malty said:

Under cocu, the emphasis was on ball control and skill and retaining possession. I’m fine with this, but it didn’t work and frequently never does. The main reason for this is simply that the players weren’t good enough. Tbh, they still aren’t. Our best route forward is to work our nuts off and get better in other ways. Better at set pieces at both ends for example.

COYR!!

I was impressed by Alan Durban’s analysis in his biography, when he argued that in England the game was all about running. Bielsa seems to get it.