Coronavirus

[maxjam]

15 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

What is the YLL due to Covid? Dismiss the figure I quoted based on your limited research fine, you drew your conclusions perhaps before even reading the revised research allowing for all of the points you have raised to be taken into consideration. 

Do you think it is impossible to extract a reliable YLL from all the data we have. Would you even believe it?

Where is the study please?

You said the following;

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”

Its common knowledge that 95% of all covid victims had one or more underlying factors, by 'adjusting for long-term health conditions' you ultimately end up finding a news story about a single 20yo physically fit student that died - a bit of an exaggeration I'll admit but you do end up artificially boosting the potential years of life lost by covid victims.

[jimmyp]

39 minutes ago, Spanish said:

I am talking about a common sense approach rather than a stat that is manipulated to create a fear that is not a true threat.  Until someone is able to prove realistically how many years life expectancy A Covid victim lost then the calculation against a standard calculation is spurious.  I don’t believe for a second that the average Covid victim had 14 years left to live if they had not had the virus.

 

28 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Where is the study please?

You said the following;

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”

Its common knowledge that 95% of all covid victims had one or more underlying factors, by 'adjusting for long-term health conditions' you ultimately end up finding a news story about a single 20yo physically fit student that died - a bit of an exaggeration I'll admit but you do end up artificially boosting the potential years of life lost by covid victims.

 

2 hours ago, Norman said:

I thought the average age in this country was 82 point something that had died from Covid. No way the average person therefore has another 12 years life expectancy. Especially as most of the dead had underlying medical conditions too. 

Where's the stats for that? 

Edit: it's 82.4, which is higher than the UK average life expectancy. 

My bad, I didn’t fully read Marius Rubos interpretation of the revised edition of the original research. 

I also apologise if you were under the impression I was doing it as a scare tactic, that is certainly not something I was trying to achieve. 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

Its sad if you or someone you know suffers a bad or fatal reaction to covid, but young people that do suffer with it are in a tiny, tiny minority - thats not zero and given a population of nearly 70m it will be a lot of people.

If you're under 40 covid has a 0.06 fatality rate;

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/13/covid-risk

We are still learning about 'long Covid', which is my daughter's problem. It affects different people in different ways. Her son had 3 or 4 days of being 'a bit poorly', her partner (who is very overweight and grossly unfit) had no symptoms at all, whereas she had 28 days of being really ill and 5 months of slow recovery to the point where she is now.

[Spanish]

14 minutes ago, Eddie said:

We are still learning about 'long Covid', which is my daughter's problem. It affects different people in different ways. Her son had 3 or 4 days of being 'a bit poorly', her partner (who is very overweight and grossly unfit) had no symptoms at all, whereas she had 28 days of being really ill and 5 months of slow recovery to the point where she is now.

Too right.  Humans have survived plagues in family groups.  Whether susceptibility is due to blood groups or something else Is unknown but there is a defence mechanism.  The concern is if this is man made does our normal defence work.  SHe has done well to un a marathon that’s for sure

[Spanish]

18 minutes ago, Eddie said:

We are still learning about 'long Covid', which is my daughter's problem. It affects different people in different ways. Her son had 3 or 4 days of being 'a bit poorly', her partner (who is very overweight and grossly unfit) had no symptoms at all, whereas she had 28 days of being really ill and 5 months of slow recovery to the point where she is now.

Sorry forgot to say with your personal experience you must have been very worried about her

[Eddie]

3 minutes ago, Spanish said:

Sorry forgot to say with your personal experience you must have been very worried about her

Yes, and that may go some way to why I have no time for covidiots.

[Eddie]

5 minutes ago, Spanish said:

Too right.  Humans have survived plagues in family groups.  Whether susceptibility is due to blood groups or something else Is unknown but there is a defence mechanism.  The concern is if this is man made does our normal defence work.  SHe has done well to un a marathon that’s for sure

I don't think for a minute that this virus is 'man-made', despite the rubbish spouted by Li-Meng Yan, which seems to have propagated on the interwebs over the last month or two. 

[Spanish]

6 minutes ago, Eddie said:

I don't think for a minute that this virus is 'man-made', despite the rubbish spouted by Li-Meng Yan, which seems to have propagated on the interwebs over the last month or two. 

I don’t know but hope not,  sure there was something about this in March not just the recent past though

[Stive Pesley]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

Its sad if you or someone you know suffers a bad or fatal reaction to covid, but young people that do suffer with it are in a tiny, tiny minority - thats not zero and given a population of nearly 70m it will be a lot of people.

If you're under 40 covid has a 0.06 fatality rate;

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/13/covid-risk

Can't quite work that out - its a 0.06 "hazard rate" - whatever the eff that is???!

[Eddie]

4 minutes ago, Spanish said:

I don’t know but hope not,  sure there was something about this in March not just the recent past though

Despite what was suggested earlier today by one  poster, I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories, but I am a subscriber to 'Occam's Razor' - which states that the theory with the fewest assumptions is the one most likely to be correct.

[ramsbottom]

Yet more confusion and BS being spouted by the Fridge Magnet tonight. Nottingham has the same infection rate as Liverpool yet remains on ‘Teir 2’ while Liverpool moves to Teir 3... Plus Mansfield has the lowest rate in the entire county yet is also on Teir 2, with the rest of Nottinghamshire. And that’s on top of the supposed experts claiming that the sharp rise in cases within the city is due to the influx of students?!?!?? So why tar the rest of the county with the same brush??

 

[Albert]

6 hours ago, Spanish said:

just picked this out of a BBC article

Back in January 2020, at the end of the Australian summer, the country had 6,962 cases of the flu confirmed via a laboratory test. At this time, Covid-19 was still known only as “the novel coronavirus” and mostly confined to China. Ordinarily, you would have expected to see more and more cases of the flu as the days became shorter and winter descended.

Instead, something unexpected happened. By April there were just 229 cases of the flu – down from 18,705 at the same time the previous year. Covid-19 had already ripped across the world, collectively infecting more than a million people, including the British prime minister, and spreading to every continent except Antarctica. Lockdowns had been imposed, hand-washing had been popularised and mask-wearing had become commonplace – though the latter was still much more widely practiced in Asia than elsewhere.

By August, it was clear that Australia’s flu season had been the mildest on record. In all, there were fewer than a 10th of the infections seen in 2019 – and the vast majority of these occurred before the pandemic hit. This is all against a backdrop of more testing than had ever been conducted before.

The same pattern also occurred elsewhere. The co-head of South Africa’s National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) recently told CBS News that the country “just didn't have a flu season this year”, while in New Zealand, doctors didn’t detect a single flu case during their annual screening drive, though last year 57% of the swabs they took were positive.  

 

full article here https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201009-could-social-distancing-make-the-flu-extinct

 

suppose the story could be spun the other way around in that CV19 dealt with those that would have been susceptible to flu in another time

 

Flu deaths are never this high. The flu doesn't kill 40k+ a year after infecting only a fraction of the population. While it's true that similar risk factors can come into play, the risks are on an entirely different level here. 

5 hours ago, Spanish said:

I really think that is pushing it a bit.  I certainly believe that CV19 is ending peoples lives earlier than it would otherwise be.  Whether you accept that it is only if the person only had 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to go I still find it objectionable that any early death should be seen as acceptable.  At the heart of this is whether the economy is worth more than the lives lost early due to the impact of the virus.  To be fair to both sides of the argument that is a difficult decision to make.

I find it quite odd that some in the media have successfully convinced people that it's 'lives or the economy'. The fact that this has worked to even generated a 'debate' is grotesque on its own, but as shown, there really is no dichotomy. The countries that are recovering economically are the ones that are prevented the deaths. 

Death and illness reduce productivity, and spook the market, as consumers are less likely to go out and spend. Both fall with each other. Lockdowns can have harsh, short term effects, if used effectively, but then allow life to go back to normal. Half measures, on the other hand, have profound long term effects, as they just generate uncertainty, aren't preventing the deaths, and ultimately get the worst of both World's. Unfortunately, this is what's happened in the UK, and other parts of Europe. 

[Bob The Badger]

Is it a coincidence that 4 out of the 5 countries that have the highest death count (US, India, Brazil and UK) have right wing populist governments?

Mexico is the other country in the top 5 and I have no clue what their government is because I think it's always coalitions and I'm too lazy to look it up.

Of course, that's all presumning China and Russia aren't lying about their numbers, which would hardly be surprising. 

[Uptherams]

 

 

 

[Rev]

2 hours ago, Eddie said:

We are still learning about 'long Covid', which is my daughter's problem. It affects different people in different ways. Her son had 3 or 4 days of being 'a bit poorly', her partner (who is very overweight and grossly unfit) had no symptoms at all, whereas she had 28 days of being really ill and 5 months of slow recovery to the point where she is now.

Is he a smoker by any chance?

[jono]

I sill maintain it isn’t about deaths unless as an individual you lose a loved one, which is tragic and deserving of all the emotions we can gather. For society it’s about the effects of hundreds of thousands of sick people that don’t cause the light economy to die - there is always a light economy - but those sick people would fill hospital beds, prevent normal medicine and treatment happening. Then the next societal tier the heavy economy .. the sewage works, the bins, the power plant, the food production and delivery and the police. ... it’s the non functioning of those that is the real danger and the real reasons we aren’t just letting it roll. 

[Rev]

24 minutes ago, ramsbottom said:

Yet more confusion and BS being spouted by the Fridge Magnet tonight. Nottingham has the same infection rate as Liverpool yet remains on ‘Teir 2’ while Liverpool moves to Teir 3... Plus Mansfield has the lowest rate in the entire county yet is also on Teir 2, with the rest of Nottinghamshire. And that’s on top of the supposed experts claiming that the sharp rise in cases within the city is due to the influx of students?!?!?? So why tar the rest of the county with the same brush??

 

Any measure that keeps Woodentop's at home should be applauded. 

[i-Ram]

[Rev]

7 hours ago, i-Ram said:

North/South divide at play with this Second Wave. The steady drain of talent from the North to the South over the last 20/30 years has greatly depleted the gene pool of those who remain. 

@Angry RamDo you have big keepnet I can borrow ?

I appreciate the honesty that your tiny southern talent pool, mostly based in the Windsor area, wasn't enough to see the country prosper, and you needed northern thinking to make Britain great again, especially for deprived areas like the south west.

I think mushy peas are a small price to pay for dragging you southern softies upto average, on a worldwide scale.

Make room in that net @Angry Ram, I'm landed.

[Eddie]

48 minutes ago, reverendo de duivel said:

Is he a smoker by any chance?

No.