Curtains Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, jono said: I think that is what happens in a liberal society. We will almost certainly get a second wave. Given how we’ve seen people behave, short of draconian police measures you have to rely of the majority of sensible people to offset the damage caused by the idiots but that in itself is amelioration rather than a guaranteed fix. I think they are getting quite confident about a vaccine mate https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53061288 Even without a vaccine straight away I think we know more about controlling Covid 19 now if we get a 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Kevin Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, jono said: I think that is what happens in a liberal society. We will almost certainly get a second wave. Given how we’ve seen people behave, short of draconian police measures you have to rely of the majority of sensible people to offset the damage caused by the idiots but that in itself is amelioration rather than a guaranteed fix. It's what's happening in Germany people confined to their homes with police guards ,Many want to return home but they won't let them, most relying on charity food parcels to feed their families . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 I've not really looked at the figures, but how 'big' are these second waves. Are big second waves really probable if lockdown measures are managed properly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: I've not really looked at the figures, but how 'big' are these second waves. Are big second waves really probable if lockdown measures are managed properly? If you assume that the virus is no more or less contagious (not seen any scientific evidence to say it's changed either way) - then it will still become prevalent again very quickly. The measures we're looking at now (facemasks on transport, 1m social distance rule) will only be partially effective in slowing the spread of a second wave - because they aren't guaranteed to stop the virus spreading AND the idiot factor of those who choose not to bother with them 11 hours ago, bcnram said: Isn't that what guidelines are? "This is what we want you to work round, you sort out how your individual business can do it". Every pub / business is different, surely the government can't be expected to instruct every individual business? Of course not but it's the difference between "strict guidelines" and "vague guidelines". A strict guideline will be easy to understand. The terms being clear and unambiguous. So far the government guidelines on everything have been vague and ambiguous. Deliberately so in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: I've not really looked at the figures, but how 'big' are these second waves. Are big second waves really probable if lockdown measures are managed properly? It very much depends on how you define 'second wave'. In the UK, it's difficult to justify saying that the 'first wave' is over because we are still reporting over 1000 deaths per week. Countries which have successfully suppressed the virus overall are still recording localised outbreaks and are clamping down very much at a local level in order to contain the outbreaks using 'test, trace and isolate' whereas we are not in such an enviable position. At the end of the day, any response has to be politically driven (they are the people paid to make the decisions, based upon science to a greater or lesser degree) and it appears that 1000 deaths a week seems now to be the acceptable one, seeing as how the rules are being relaxed at this point. Other countries have been much more successful, applying measures which could be described as 'Draconian' (when I discussed this with my wife a few days ago, she was adamant that those measures could and would never be applied in the UK because we are 'too bolshy' to accept them), but they have worked to the point that any marked increase in cases could be described as a 'second wave'. On the other hand, there are a handful of countries who have been even more spectacularly less successful, but that would be a subject for discussion in another thread in another time on another website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrisoner Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Curtains said: I think they are getting quite confident about a vaccine mate https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53061288 Even without a vaccine straight away I think we know more about controlling Covid 19 now if we get a 2nd wave. The problem is how effective the vaccine is down the line. It'd be great to have a vaccine of course, it'd be less great if in 3 years time everyone who had the vaccine's legs started dropping off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curtains Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 minute ago, ThePrisoner said: The problem is how effective the vaccine is down the line. It'd be great to have a vaccine of course, it'd be less great if in 3 years time everyone who had the vaccine's legs started dropping off. Of course you are right and they will have to be certain before they use it but I’m sure they realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, ThePrisoner said: The problem is how effective the vaccine is down the line. It'd be great to have a vaccine of course, it'd be less great if in 3 years time everyone who had the vaccine's legs started dropping off. Look on the bright side - we could base our entire economy on wheelchair manufacture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Ram for All Seasons Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, King Kevin said: It's what's happening in Germany people confined to their homes with police guards ,Many want to return home but they won't let them, most relying on charity food parcels to feed their families . Not true, in fact nowhere near the truth. Apparently only 24 people out of the 1700 or so who contracted it didn't actually work at the meat processing plant. It is a very localised event. All food shops are still open , provided you wear a mask, and there are no police guards to stop you going out. Of course, if you are infected you have to stay in. Schools and non-essential shops have been closed, buses have stopped running, and no more than 2 people from different households are allowed to meet in public. All hospital and supermarket staff are being tested because they are the people most likely to have come into contact with the workers from the meat plant. These measures only apply locally in the Gütersloh and Warendorf districts. They don't apply anywhere else. They are strict, but hardly draconian, and they have to be to stop the disease from spreading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, A Ram for All Seasons said: Not true, in fact nowhere near the truth. Apparently only 24 people out of the 1700 or so who contracted it didn't actually work at the meat processing plant. It is a very localised event. All food shops are still open , provided you wear a mask, and there are no police guards to stop you going out. Of course, if you are infected you have to stay in. Schools and non-essential shops have been closed, buses have stopped running, and no more than 2 people of different households are allowed to meet in public. All hospital and supermarket staff are being tested because they are the people most likely to have come into contact with the workers from the meat plant. These measures only apply locally in the Gütersloh and Warendorf districts. They don't apply anywhere else. They are strict, but hardly draconian, and they have to be to stop the disease from spreading. That sounds eminently sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, Eddie said: It very much depends on how you define 'second wave'. In the UK, it's difficult to justify saying that the 'first wave' is over because we are still reporting over 1000 deaths per week. Countries which have successfully suppressed the virus overall are still recording localised outbreaks and are clamping down very much at a local level in order to contain the outbreaks using 'test, trace and isolate' whereas we are not in such an enviable position. At the end of the day, any response has to be politically driven (they are the people paid to make the decisions, based upon science to a greater or lesser degree) and it appears that 1000 deaths a week seems now to be the acceptable one, seeing as how the rules are being relaxed at this point. Other countries have been much more successful, applying measures which could be described as 'Draconian' (when I discussed this with my wife a few days ago, she was adamant that those measures could and would never be applied in the UK because we are 'too bolshy' to accept them), but they have worked to the point that any marked increase in cases could be described as a 'second wave'. On the other hand, there are a handful of countries who have been even more spectacularly less successful, but that would be a subject for discussion in another thread in another time on another website. We may still be reporting 1000 deaths a week (I think the actual figure is 800), but we're now down to just 300 deaths with COVID in English hospitals per week. I can't imagine the total number of deaths in the UK is that much higher. For comparison, at it's peak, we were had 900 English hospital deaths in a single day (5500 within a 7 day period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: We may still be reporting 1000 deaths a week (I think the actual figure is 800), but we're now down to just 300 deaths with COVID in English hospitals per week. I can't imagine the total number of deaths in the UK is that much higher. For comparison, at it's peak, we were had 900 English hospital deaths in a single day (5500 within a 7 day period). Once they had filtered through the system, we had in excess of 1000 deaths 'with COVID-19' per day for 22 consecutive days, so it is definitely progressing in the right direction. As far as the most recent four weeks are concerned, the total number of deaths occurring 'with COVID-19' in England and Wales were as follows: Week 21 - 2231 Week 22 - 1744 Week 23 - 1276 Week 24 - 865 The number 'registered with COVID-19' (some of these deaths will relate to earlier weeks) in England and Wales were as follows: Week 21 - 2589 Week 22 - 1822 Week 23 - 1588 Week 24 - 1114 Source: ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/filter-outputs/732ad954-d824-4a07-8c89-bc9b84f55c26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 13 hours ago, SchtivePesley said: The guidelines are bound to be vague and put all the onus on the pubs to interpret them as they see fit. That seems to be the tactic with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Kevin Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, A Ram for All Seasons said: Not true, in fact nowhere near the truth. Apparently only 24 people out of the 1700 or so who contracted it didn't actually work at the meat processing plant. It is a very localised event. All food shops are still open , provided you wear a mask, and there are no police guards to stop you going out. Of course, if you are infected you have to stay in. Schools and non-essential shops have been closed, buses have stopped running, and no more than 2 people from different households are allowed to meet in public. All hospital and supermarket staff are being tested because they are the people most likely to have come into contact with the workers from the meat plant. These measures only apply locally in the Gütersloh and Warendorf districts. They don't apply anywhere else. They are strict, but hardly draconian, and they have to be to stop the disease from spreading. I suggest you listen to the BBC report because that's exactly what was reported .Sorry if it doesn't fit your they're right we're wrong agenda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, King Kevin said: I suggest you listen to the BBC report because that's exactly what was reported .Sorry if it doesn't fit your they're right we're wrong agenda https://www.france24.com/en/20200623-germany-reimposes-local-lockdown-after-coronavirus-outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Ram for All Seasons Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, King Kevin said: I suggest you listen to the BBC report because that's exactly what was reported .Sorry if it doesn't fit your they're right we're wrong agenda This is where I got my information from, not the BBC. There's no agenda. https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/landespolitik/laschet-statement-corona-pandemie-100.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, A Ram for All Seasons said: This is where I got my information from, not the BBC. There's no agenda. https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/landespolitik/laschet-statement-corona-pandemie-100.html He'll not read that - it's in foreign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Eddie said: Once they had filtered through the system, we had in excess of 1000 deaths 'with COVID-19' per day for 22 consecutive days, so it is definitely progressing in the right direction. As far as the most recent four weeks are concerned, the total number of deaths occurring 'with COVID-19' in England and Wales were as follows: Week 21 - 2231 Week 22 - 1744 Week 23 - 1276 Week 24 - 865 The number 'registered with COVID-19' (some of these deaths will relate to earlier weeks) in England and Wales were as follows: Week 21 - 2589 Week 22 - 1822 Week 23 - 1588 Week 24 - 1114 Source: ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/filter-outputs/732ad954-d824-4a07-8c89-bc9b84f55c26 wasn't 'week 24' 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 37 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: wasn't 'week 24' 2 weeks ago? Those are the latest verified results that are available for download from the ONS website, which is widely acclaimed to be the most accurate and reliable. Where life gets extremely uncomfortable indeed is when we look at excess deaths. Further information here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public And here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/latest What was the source that related to the figures that you quoted? After all, you seem to be very keen to discredit mine, which are supposedly non-political. Yours might be more accurate or more up-to-date, either of which might make them more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Eddie said: Those are the latest verified results that are available for download from the ONS website, which is widely acclaimed to be the most accurate and reliable. Where life gets extremely uncomfortable indeed is when we look at excess deaths. Further information here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public And here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/latest What was the source that related to the figures that you quoted? After all, you seem to be very keen to discredit mine, which are supposedly non-political. Yours might be more accurate or more up-to-date, either of which might make them more reliable. NHS England data, updated daily. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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