Coronavirus

[TimRam]

[Guest]

12 hours ago, reverendo de duivel said:

I think the explanation is even simpler.

The government wanted the Cheltenham Festival held. 

Having attended many times, it's as much a networking opportunity for traditional Conservatives and their backers as it is a working class sporting event.

I'd imagine if they were adamant that the festival would go ahead it was more based on the economical benefits rather than it just being an opportunity for networking.

[Wolfie]

12 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

If true that would put the mortality rate at 0.4% and then you would have to be left questioning is then any more deadly than influenza.

Isn't it the rate of transmission with Covid that's the issue?. It may not be more deadly than flu but if each infected person goes on to transmit it to 6 other people (where as it's something like 1.5-3, for flu), then it quickly becomes a dangerous peak & health systems buckle.

H1N1 Swine flu in 2009 was 1.4-1.6 R number, so was much more easy to contain

Numbers from here: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

[alexxxxx]

1 hour ago, SIXTEEN AGAIN said:

Don't agree with you the social distancing in London was and still is worse. I have to travel a few times between various places for the job in the last few weeks and with the possible exception of a one place London still seems to be the most difficult. I have found the worst place is the one on the doorstep 

Interesting! I was more talking about people breaking the rules in terms of going on walks ages away from home, seeing friends etc but guess everyone's experience is different... 

[Guest]

Not sure if it has been asked in any of the daily briefings, or elsewhere, but assuming that the R rate is now say 0.5, how long would it take for the virus to completely disappear?

[GboroRam]

9 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure if it has been asked in any of the daily briefings, or elsewhere, but assuming that the R rate is now say 0.5, how long would it take for the virus to completely disappear?

Depends how many laboratories it's in.

[King Kevin]

40 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Isn't it the rate of transmission with Covid that's the issue?. It may not be more deadly than flu but if each infected person goes on to transmit it to 6 other people (where as it's something like 1.5-3, for flu), then it quickly becomes a dangerous peak & health systems buckle.

H1N1 Swine flu in 2009 was 1.4-1.6 R number, so was much more easy to contain

Numbers from here: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

The other thing is if you have normal flu then you naturally stay out of circulation as you feel so bad [so I'm told] .You can have Covid 19 with just about no symptoms so it's bound to spread as these people are not aware of having it and are still in circulation .

[Wolfie]

10 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure if it has been asked in any of the daily briefings, or elsewhere, but assuming that the R rate is now say 0.5, how long would it take for the virus to completely disappear?

Depends how long people are infectious for, I would imagine. Then it's maths.

If it's 2 weeks, then the number of new cases would halve after 2 weeks, halve again 2 weeks later etc. It'd still be around for a while but in easier to manage and isolate type numbers.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Depends how long people are infectious for, I would imagine. Then it's maths.

If it's 2 weeks, then the number of new cases would halve after 2 weeks, halve again 2 weeks later etc. It'd still be around for a while but in easier to manage and isolate type numbers.

165k active cases but of course we have still only tested a very small proportion of the country.

Doesnt look like it will just fizzle out anytime soon then.

[Eddie]

16 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure if it has been asked in any of the daily briefings, or elsewhere, but assuming that the R rate is now say 0.5, how long would it take for the virus to completely disappear?

That depends upon 

• The number of people currently infected and transmittable
• The length of time that the virus is transmittable

Assuming a start point of 194990 (the number of currently confirmed cases in the UK), and taking a worst-case scenario that all are still alive and all still have the virus (they aren't and they haven't) then is would take 18 iterations to reduce the figure below 1. Making a further assumption that the virus is transmittable for a period of 30 days, and assuming that R0 is constant (the only way that happens is if social distancing and lockdowns remain as current), then my quick fag-packet calculation gives a result of 540 days - or a year and a half.

[FindernRam]

12 hours ago, King Kevin said:

,I would go to Pride Park but would think twice about going on the tube in London

According to the stats on TV yesterday Derby has one of the largest Virus rates outside the major cities. PP is going to be high risk for a while

[FindernRam]

15 minutes ago, Eddie said:

That depends upon 

• The number of people currently infected and transmittable
• The length of time that the virus is transmittable

Assuming a start point of 194990 (the number of currently confirmed cases in the UK), and taking a worst-case scenario that all are still alive and all still have the virus (they aren't and they haven't) then is would take 18 iterations to reduce the figure below 1. Making a further assumption that the virus is transmittable for a period of 30 days, and assuming that R0 is constant (the only way that happens is if social distancing and lockdowns remain as current), then my quick fag-packet calculation gives a result of 540 days - or a year and a half.

Taking a slightly more pessimistic start but more optimistic outlook than your figures

Starting at 250000 (assuming more people have it than we know) R -0.7 which is apparently where we are

We get 17 iterations before less than 600 people are infected. i.e a risk of 1 in 10000 per person. 

Assuming 2 weeks per iteration that's 34 weeks

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

That depends upon 

• The number of people currently infected and transmittable
• The length of time that the virus is transmittable

Assuming a start point of 194990 (the number of currently confirmed cases in the UK), and taking a worst-case scenario that all are still alive and all still have the virus (they aren't and they haven't) then is would take 18 iterations to reduce the figure below 1. Making a further assumption that the virus is transmittable for a period of 30 days, and assuming that R0 is constant (the only way that happens is if social distancing and lockdowns remain as current), then my quick fag-packet calculation gives a result of 540 days - or a year and a half.

Thanks Eddie

[ramsbottom]

2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure if it has been asked in any of the daily briefings, or elsewhere, but assuming that the R rate is now say 0.5, how long would it take for the virus to completely disappear?

 

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

That depends upon 

• The number of people currently infected and transmittable
• The length of time that the virus is transmittable

Assuming a start point of 194990 (the number of currently confirmed cases in the UK), and taking a worst-case scenario that all are still alive and all still have the virus (they aren't and they haven't) then is would take 18 iterations to reduce the figure below 1. Making a further assumption that the virus is transmittable for a period of 30 days, and assuming that R0 is constant (the only way that happens is if social distancing and lockdowns remain as current), then my quick fag-packet calculation gives a result of 540 days - or a year and a half.

And that's if people obey the rules, which they won't.  Let's face it, until there's a vaccine life will be far from normal...

[RandomAccessMemory]

Might be a silly question but wouldn't the number of people able to be infected change everything?

So IF theres immunity for any length of time then the people that have already had it within that time can't get it again wouldn't that limit the possible spread?

[Ghost of Clough]

I'm expecting our exit strategy to be released later this week. At least partially anyway.

[JoetheRam]

Anyone else had symptoms that repeatedly appear?

I first had a fever, combined with shortness of breath 5 weeks ago. Since then I've got better and then the fever has returned on several occasions with tiredness persistent throughout. The last 3 or 4 days I've felt back to normal only for the fever to return with a vengeance last night. I'm currently resting up which seems to have been my default position for most of the Spring.

I did a home test a week or so ago only for that to mysteriously not make it to a testing facility within the 72 hours they need it to for the sample to remain test-worthy (bet it still got counted as a completed test though). I'm scheduled in at Edgbaston tomorrow (was either there or Notts and both are about 30 miles from me which is not good enough really) for another test which I strongly suspect should confirm I've got it. 

Having had repeated rises and falls over the last 5 weeks, along with my age and usual health, I'm not overly concerned that I'll end up dead but slightly concerned my body isn't able to fully kill the virus off.

I've been out twice since I first got symptoms (7 days after I stopped showing signs of it) and haven't been particularly close to anyone so can't think that I've caught it more than once.

[Rev]

3 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Anyone else had symptoms that repeatedly appear

BBC News - The patients who just can't shake off Covid-19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52548843

Seems you're not alone.

[Gone]

4 hours ago, TimRam said:

I would love to use “sweep the leg” to numerous people. Now due to health and safety I believe I can ?

[ramit]

30 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Anyone else had symptoms that repeatedly appear?

I first had a fever, combined with shortness of breath 5 weeks ago. Since then I've got better and then the fever has returned on several occasions with tiredness persistent throughout. The last 3 or 4 days I've felt back to normal only for the fever to return with a vengeance last night. I'm currently resting up which seems to have been my default position for most of the Spring.

I did a home test a week or so ago only for that to mysteriously not make it to a testing facility within the 72 hours they need it to for the sample to remain test-worthy (bet it still got counted as a completed test though). I'm scheduled in at Edgbaston tomorrow (was either there or Notts and both are about 30 miles from me which is not good enough really) for another test which I strongly suspect should confirm I've got it. 

Having had repeated rises and falls over the last 5 weeks, along with my age and usual health, I'm not overly concerned that I'll end up dead but slightly concerned my body isn't able to fully kill the virus off.

I've been out twice since I first got symptoms (7 days after I stopped showing signs of it) and haven't been particularly close to anyone so can't think that I've caught it more than once.

i became very ill about 2 months ago.  The fever and congestion subsided within days, but the sinusitis, causing eye ache and headache have persisted, along with feelings of being lightheaded, especially after any exertion.  The crystals in both ears became loose at the same time, but am alright with that now after doing exercises.  i am now on penicillin.  Tested twice, negative.  i don't know what i have, but it's not a common flu.