Coronavirus

[GboroRam]

Just now, Norman said:

China qurantines a city of 10 million and Beijing is shutting gyms and bras apparently. 

Nothing to see. Move on people. Just 7 new cases from People who have visited Russia reported..

I'd heard most women haven’t bothered since the lockdown. 

[maxjam]

30 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I think the image shows that the response worked. Because coronavirus spreads exponentially, if you lose control of it, it grows at a huge rate. The lockdown has ensured we didn't get flooded with critically ill patients. 

How successful was it? Impossible to say with the limited data we have. 

Oh yeah don't get me wrong I fully support the lockdown but perhaps now is the time to start thinking about opening everything back up and a putting a plan in place going forwards.

My concern is something that @Norman alluded to... I don't actually know anyone thats been ill and my wife is on the local facebook group and as far as she can tell no one has been ill locally which means herd immunity around us is pretty much zero.  We can't stay locked away forever and by the time next winter comes around my parents (both mid 70s) will be out and about in potentially greater danger than they have ever been in currently.

[Uptherams]

20 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Oh yeah don't get me wrong I fully support the lockdown but perhaps now is the time to start thinking about opening everything back up and a putting a plan in place going forwards.

My concern is something that @Norman alluded to... I don't actually know anyone thats been ill and my wife is on the local facebook group and as far as she can tell no one has been ill locally which means herd immunity around us is pretty much zero.  We can't stay locked away forever and by the time next winter comes around my parents (both mid 70s) will be out and about in potentially greater danger than they have ever been in currently.

Because most people are asymptomatic. The greater the number of people in a study, the lower the mortality rate is and a higher proportion have got antibodies. 60-70% figures are being quoted for herd immunity. Estimations of around half that figure already. 

The government originally advised those that are high risk, having to isolate for 12 weeks. It's looking like herd immunity may be reached around that timeframe. 

Many doctors coming forward now, highlighting how they are being pressured into citing Covid-19 as the reason for death, yet they wouldn't do the same for seasonal flu, in typical circumstances. Therefore suggesting the mortality rate is significantly lower than baseline statistics are reflecting. They themselves making the comparisons with the flu. 

[Comrade 86]

14 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Many doctors coming forward now, highlighting how they are being pressured into citing Covid-19 as the reason for death, yet they wouldn't do the same for seasonal flu, in typical circumstances.

From The Daily Mail

NHS doctors are being told they DON'T need to list Covid-19 on death certificates of coronavirus patients, leaked documents reveal

Hospital guidance was obtained by not-for-profit organisation Good Law Project

Tells medics 'pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia are acceptable'

Says Covid-19 may be mentioned in other areas of form 'should the doctor wish'

 

The leaked hospital guidance, obtained by not-for-profit organisation Good Law Project, tells medics filling in death certificates that 'pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia are acceptable' to put as the direct cause of death.

The guidance, which is titled 'guidance for death certification of proven Covid-19 patients during the current pandemic', says proven coronavirus deaths must be reported to the hospital site manager.

But under the header 'general principles' it adds: 'There is no requirement to write Covid-19 as part of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD).'

Full story here... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8227035/NHS-doctors-told-DONT-need-list-Covid-19-death-certificates-coronavirus-patients.html

Can you provide evidence of the 'many doctors' who are being pressured please - ta! No Twatter bots this time or obscure right wing blogs, something vaguely credible.

[Chester40]

3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Where is she based.

Friend of mine from Stoke cannot believe how quiet her hospital has been.

They've been preparing and preparing for a avalanche that just hasn't happened.

She said that there are obviously quite a few coronavirus cases but alot leas general admissions.

Just checked, in Derby and Burton there have been 320 deaths. Over a 8 week period that equates to 40 a week, or between 5 and 6 a day.

Split between 2 hospitals it really doesnt sound much and surely much more than the staff are used to seeing?

 

I have a friend in Cheshire who is a respiratory specialist who said much the same. Was expecting a deluge but is actually seeing very few people and is slightly embarrassed about what to say when he asked. 

[RamNut]

18 minutes ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

From The Daily Mail

NHS doctors are being told they DON'T need to list Covid-19 on death certificates of coronavirus patients, leaked documents reveal

Hospital guidance was obtained by not-for-profit organisation Good Law Project

Tells medics 'pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia are acceptable'

Says Covid-19 may be mentioned in other areas of form 'should the doctor wish'

 

The leaked hospital guidance, obtained by not-for-profit organisation Good Law Project, tells medics filling in death certificates that 'pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia are acceptable' to put as the direct cause of death.

The guidance, which is titled 'guidance for death certification of proven Covid-19 patients during the current pandemic', says proven coronavirus deaths must be reported to the hospital site manager.

But under the header 'general principles' it adds: 'There is no requirement to write Covid-19 as part of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD).'

Full story here... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8227035/NHS-doctors-told-DONT-need-list-Covid-19-death-certificates-coronavirus-patients.html

Can you provide evidence of the 'many doctors' who are being pressured please - ta! No Twatter bots this time or obscure right wing blogs, something vaguely credible.

I am beginning to suspect some politics at work behind the scenes

i know that hospitals have declined to take elderly patients with suspected covid19 from care homes

This would potentially reduce the stats of coved 19 related deaths in hospital

Outbreaks in care homes seem to be kept hush hush.

there is talk of preparations for an end to lockdown and “business as usual”

reducing the stats of deaths would be a good starting tactic. 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, RamNut said:

I am beginning to suspect some politics at work behind the scenes

i know that hospitals have declined to take elderly patients with suspected covid19 from care homes

This would potentially reduce the stats of coved 19 related deaths in hospital

Outbreaks in care homes seem to be kept hush hush.

there is talk of preparations for an end to lockdown and “business as usual”

reducing the stats of deaths would be a good starting tactic. 

 

The ONS death stats are obviously the best to use get a feel of how many deaths this is causing either directly or indirectly.

The public health England graph seems to give a good indication on what is happening on a daily basis.

There is definitely a downward trend and appears to have been for over a week now.

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, RamNut said:

I am beginning to suspect some politics at work behind the scenes

i know that hospitals have declined to take elderly patients with suspected covid19 from care homes

This would potentially reduce the stats of coved 19 related deaths in hospital

Outbreaks in care homes seem to be kept hush hush.

there is talk of preparations for an end to lockdown and “business as usual”

reducing the stats of deaths would be a good starting tactic. 

 

Is there a link with evidence of this?

If anything, I suspect the opposite behind the scenes politics. It seems the new deaths per day (excluding nursing homes which I know is a real crisis but probably always has been) is lower than the figures (new deaths registered - which may include deaths over a number of days) they focus more on. If so, it may be because they want to prevent a groundswell lobby for relaxing the lock down too soon.

[Angry Ram]

I expect some slight lifting of restrictions next month.. Small family and friends gatherings, some sports, golf etc. Some opening of business where social distances can be kept etc. 
What I can’t see is anything happening with major events (including football B4). They will be last to return to normal.

I am planning returns for staff now. Technically we are key workers in logistics, it was just I didn’t see fashion as a worthy enough vertical.. We will rotate staff through the office and warehouse, those who can will still work from home. PPE for drivers will be difficult to get hold of but I managed to but masks through Amazon quite easily. Just looking at gloves now. We will just keep it as sensible as possible and reduce risk. 

[Archied]

Was beginning to think I was alone when banging on about reporting of death numbers for ages now ,,, sorry but it’s so obtuse that you start to wonder wtf is going on , how hard is it to do a simple graph where deaths are logged by the day they happened which updates every time a death is logged ,? That way you have a constant running graph that shows true daily death tolls as they are recorded 

[alexxxxx]

Would love to get back to normalish soon. 

I'm really not looking forward to the huge recession that will follow this and the millions unemployed. My job could be at risk which is a worry. 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

The ONS death stats are obviously the best to use get a feel of how many deaths this is causing either directly or indirectly.

The public health England graph seems to give a good indication on what is happening on a daily basis.

There is definitely a downward trend and appears to have been for over a week now.

What is indisputable is that, between two and 3 weeks ago (w/e 10/04/2020), we had the highest single weekly death toll in the UK since the ONS started maintaining that particular statistic. Until that weekly figure reverts back to the norm, or at least starts to trend in that direction, everything else is cosmetic cherry-picking.

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, Eddie said:

What is indisputable is that, between two and 3 weeks ago (w/e 10/04/2020), we had the highest single weekly death toll in the UK since the ONS started maintaining that particular statistic. Until that weekly figure reverts back to the norm, or at least starts to trend in that direction, everything else is cosmetic cherry-picking.

Not necessarily.

Potentially, and I am not saying this is what I think is the current situation, Covid 19 deaths could fall to zero and deaths could still remain higher than normal due to deaths caused by causes indirectly linked to it.

I read a stat this morning from a doctor that said something along the lines that the fall in cancer diagnosis at the current time could lead to 50,000 additional deaths in the near future.

[RamNut]

3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

The ONS death stats are obviously the best to use get a feel of how many deaths this is causing either directly or indirectly.

The public health England graph seems to give a good indication on what is happening on a daily basis.

There is definitely a downward trend and appears to have been for over a week now.

I would assume so. That was indicated by the graphs I posted.

however, I think there is a good chance of political pressures being applied to affect the stats in order to engineer a return to work.

[RamNut]

7 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Well 7 weeks and 3 days since the first recorded death

But 4 weeks since the numbers became significant.

[Gritstone Ram]

3 minutes ago, RamNut said:

But 4 weeks since the numbers became significant.

When do you think we should have locked down? When the numbers became significant?

[RamNut]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Is there a link with evidence of this?

If anything, I suspect the opposite behind the scenes politics. It seems the new deaths per day (excluding nursing homes which I know is a real crisis but probably always has been) is lower than the figures (new deaths registered - which may include deaths over a number of days) they focus more on. If so, it may be because they want to prevent a groundswell lobby for relaxing the lock down too soon.

Hard to tell you how I know without disclosing too much. But I know for a fact that no coronavirus cases were reported at a certain grouping of care homes in Derbyshire. I then learned from someone who works in one home that there had been one confirmed death, one suspected case - that the hospital refused to take -  and that the manager had been ill and recovered and gone back to work in that home. i some made enquiries and discovered that there were further outbreaks in other homes that had not been reported and the person who told me told me that was clearly worried about disclosing too much, and admitted that they shouldn’t be telling me. 
 

you’ll have to take my word for it.

[Ghost of Clough]

2 hours ago, Archied said:

Was beginning to think I was alone when banging on about reporting of death numbers for ages now ,,, sorry but it’s so obtuse that you start to wonder wtf is going on , how hard is it to do a simple graph where deaths are logged by the day they happened which updates every time a death is logged ,? That way you have a constant running graph that shows true daily death tolls as they are recorded 

Very easy. So easy, they’ve already done it. 
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

[B4ev6is]

Well this is way before all of this kicked off but grandma was treated like third class certain when fell broke her hip in a care I feel sorry for care home staff to many resendients but not enough staff take care of them.

One day me and my mum went pay her a vist little old lady tried follow us out she wanted go home but I  had too take her back just say to her you havd to stay here even if took another half an hour before staff could settle her down. Later found out I looked like her dead son bless she forgotten he was dead.

[GB SPORTS]

3 hours ago, Archied said:

Was beginning to think I was alone when banging on about reporting of death numbers for ages now ,,, sorry but it’s so obtuse that you start to wonder wtf is going on , how hard is it to do a simple graph where deaths are logged by the day they happened which updates every time a death is logged ,? That way you have a constant running graph that shows true daily death tolls as they are recorded 

There are good statistical reasons why only hospital deaths are recorded and used for planning/reporting, the main one being the certainty that the patient died after being tested for Covid-19, recording deaths in community and care homes despite what GP's have put on the death certificate is very dangerous.

For example i was present at a old person's sad demise and also had opportunity to view the death certificate .

Their death was recorded as myocardial infarction(heart attack) which did actually kill them, however this was because the heart wasn't able to cope with an operation for a condition unconnected to the cardiovascular system. There was no mention of the operation or condition on the death certificate (ie the root cause). The person would have survived without the original condition as the heart would have been strong enough to support normal function.

In the absence of any post mortem, this would not be challenged hence not recorded. Recording on death certs are hit and miss at the best of times.

It is quite possible that some deaths are/were being recorded as Covid when they were actually viral pneumonia and also being recorded as viral pneumonia when they were Covid, if no specific Covid test is done.