Coronavirus

[Tamworthram]

44 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Can you direct me to, or highlight, some of the areas where it has omitted or over embellished? Genuinely, I would be interested in trying to understand how the argument is positioned from the other perspective coz (and I know I have probably created for myself a bit of an echo chamber) my Twitter feed seems to full of stories like this. Again, sure that doesn't surprise you but I would really like to understand it from the other side in a bit more detail than 'clap for Boris for he is risen'.

Just to chip in a little. The original report (easily found via a Google search) does indeed say that there is a high probability of a flu pandemic (not that this flu) occurring but it is impossible to predict when or exactly what it would be like.

It goes on to say consequences MAY include up to 50% of the UK population experiencing symptoms and POTENTIALLY leading to between 20k and 750k fatalities. However, it then goes on to say the most recent such pandemic flu outbreak (swine flu) "Only" resulted in 18500 deaths worldwide.

So, as I read it;

1) it will happen but we don't know when or what it will look like

2) it could result in significant loss of life but

3) the last time it happened fatalities were much lower from such an event than even this report was suggesting. 

4) this isn't flu and therefore isn't even covered by the above nightmare scenario (even though the outcomes may be the same). 

Not sure if that helps the argument either way. 

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Just a thought here.

In the ONS stats released on Monday, deaths were up 6000 on average of which only 3000 were Covid-19 related.

Is the lockdown causing as many non Covid-19 related deaths as the virus itself?

Or are the number of Covid-19 related deaths understated?

Is there an argument there for relaxing the lockdown asap?

 

An interesting point - I guess you ultimately have to look at the mortality rate on the whole. The point of the lockdown is to flatten the exponential curve of CoVid-19 deaths. If you relaxed lockdown now and the 3000 non-Covid19 related deaths halved (for the sake of argument) but the 3000 Covid-19 deaths doubled, you would still have more deaths, and the Covid19 related deaths would be spiralling up again

 

 

[GboroRam]

1 minute ago, SchtivePesley said:

An interesting point - I guess you ultimately have to look at the mortality rate on the whole. The point of the lockdown is to flatten the exponential curve of CoVid-19 deaths. If you relaxed lockdown now and the 3000 non-Covid19 related deaths halved (for the sake of argument) but the 3000 Covid-19 deaths doubled, you would still have more deaths, and the Covid19 related deaths would be spiralling up again

 

 

I think the argument is, if we'd carried on as normal, the 3000 extra deaths would disappear and the 3000 covid-19 deaths would appear, so the net effect would be no extra deaths. However the number of deaths is only a fraction of the number ill. If there's 3000 extra covid deaths, would that mean 30,000 more hospital admittances, flooding the capacity of the hospital and causing more fatalities?

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

Can you direct me to, or highlight, some of the areas where it has omitted or over embellished? Genuinely, I would be interested in trying to understand how the argument is positioned from the other perspective coz (and I know I have probably created for myself a bit of an echo chamber) my Twitter feed seems to full of stories like this. Again, sure that doesn't surprise you but I would really like to understand it from the other side in a bit more detail than 'clap for Boris for he is risen'.

I'm working to a deadline tomorrow, so can't spend a lot of time on this today, but here's a selection:

• He's only quoting one side of the debate throughout the item. How do we know that twice as many "experts" weren't giving the opposing view?.
• England Complex Systems Institute sounds impressive but doesn't seem to exist. There's a "New" England.... but that's American, obviously.
• UK did not decide not to join EU purchasing of PPE. It was an error, not a choice.
• What does it matter that the UK missed EU conference calls?. The EU crisis response has been rubbish. Again.
• Boris did float the idea of herd immunity....along with other options. Why just mention that one?.

 

Herd immunity has become a dirty phrase but the reality is that it is the only way we're going to beat this - either via controlled infection rates or mass immunisation.

Mistakes have definitely been made , such as letting mass spectator events to continue for too long but it grinds my gears when I see fake or misleading / unbalanced reports online.

[TramRam]

1 hour ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

 

These are "individual accountability" and "reasonable steps".

The first demands that it is clear WHO is accountable for the decision - ultimately in a cabinet system we can assume that it rolls up to the PM and they can point fingers in various directions if they so choose.

The second simply requires that, if you took a decision that is based on uncertainties, what was your thought process (ie what was the nature of your risk trade-offs) and what steps did you take to ensure that your decision was reasonable.

 

Something like this?

 

[GboroRam]

Interesting to read some of the early thoughts on this thread, but I think by end Feb we mostly were in agreement this was a big problem. I think we still all underestimated it though.

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Just to chip in a little. The original report (easily found via a Google search) does indeed say that there is a high probability of a flu pandemic (not that this flu) occurring but it is impossible to predict when or exactly what it would be like.

It goes on to say consequences MAY include up to 50% of the UK population experiencing symptoms and POTENTIALLY leading to between 20k and 750k fatalities. However, it then goes on to say the most recent such pandemic flu outbreak (swine flu) "Only" resulted in 18500 deaths worldwide.

So, as I read it;

1) it will happen but we don't know when or what it will look like

2) it could result in significant loss of life but

3) the last time it happened fatalities were much lower from such an event than even this report was suggesting. 

4) this isn't flu and therefore isn't even covered by the above nightmare scenario (even though the outcomes may be the same). 

Not sure if that helps the argument either way. 

Yeah, I get the point on that - thx for the note. I guess that is why people in the US would be saying that the dissolution of the pandemic committee was such a bad thing. It wasn't that they knew to prepare for coronavirus but an avian / swine flu of some description was clearly the most likely to occur. But, as we all see in our working lives, we only tend to find the reason to fix the roof when the rain starts coming in. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

57 minutes ago, TramRam said:

Something like this?

 

There are indeed similarities - we are very circumspect when answering questions from regulators and scenario test in preparation for any interaction, which is carefully managed.

The PM in this sketch failed to take "reasonable steps" in our language.....great humour which has a serious undercurrent!

[Stive Pesley]

50 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Interesting to read some of the early thoughts on this thread, but I think by end Feb we mostly were in agreement this was a big problem. I think we still all underestimated it though.

For me it's interesting to see how people took different lengths of time to appreciate the seriousness. I was the first one in our house. My missus was about a week behind me and was mocking my concern as OTT at one point. A week later she was getting cross with our eldest lad who was still coming and going as he pleased, bringing friends round the house etc. A week after that the penny finally dropped with him

 

 

[rammieib]

If we had started the lock down 3-4 weeks earlier, we'd be going stir crazy right now.

I'm off the opinion that somehow we need to loosen the shackles a little bit for the economy to start returning. Loosening the shackles needs to be done such at the NHS capacity remains in place.

It already is but treatments followed by Vaccine are the true answer. I fear all these solutions for treatments we read about (Drugs, blood etc) are being done when its too late. Somehow we need to identify people earlier and give them a better chance of recovery by utilising treatments when the body can still work better. 

 

[BaaLocks]

48 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I'm working to a deadline tomorrow, so can't spend a lot of time on this today, but here's a selection:

• He's only quoting one side of the debate throughout the item. How do we know that twice as many "experts" weren't giving the opposing view?.
• England Complex Systems Institute sounds impressive but doesn't seem to exist. There's a "New" England.... but that's American, obviously.
• UK did not decide not to join EU purchasing of PPE. It was an error, not a choice.
• What does it matter that the UK missed EU conference calls?. The EU crisis response has been rubbish. Again.
• Boris did float the idea of herd immunity....along with other options. Why just mention that one?.

 

Herd immunity has become a dirty phrase but the reality is that it is the only way we're going to beat this - either via controlled infection rates or mass immunisation.

Mistakes have definitely been made , such as letting mass spectator events to continue for too long but it grinds my gears when I see fake or misleading / unbalanced reports online.

Which is kind of my point in the original post, if only half of this is correct. Our preparation and immediate action was blinded by the political impact that it would bring. Participating in the EU PPE scheme, date of the lockdown, herd immunity, is where I do tend to believe we wouldn't have acted in the same way had we not been ruled by a bunch of right wing charlatans and chancers intent on protecting their Brexit biased position. They were hugely influenced in how they would act, driven by factors other than the protection of broader society. And no, I'm not suggesting Corbyn was the right person but I am saying a more compassionate, transparent, listening, government who had something more than irrational disdain for experts would have given us a better reponse. We didn't have it, from either side, and it is strange to me that many choose not to see that (not saying you @Van Wolfie, just generally).

Boris nearly paid the ultimate price for that, I argue that others do every day by sheer dint of the fact that more died than should. But I also recognise that the right wing media will spin the story, Cummings will ensure any enquiry or investigation is blocked just as they did with the Russia report and us rampant Trotskyists out here on the communist fringes of the left wing will keep feeling we've been utterly let down while some at the other end will think we've been gloriously served by our wonderful leaders. 

[Tamworthram]

3 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Which is kind of my point in the original post, if only half of this is correct. Our preparation and immediate action was blinded by the political impact that it would bring. Participating in the EU PPE scheme, date of the lockdown, herd immunity, is where I do tend to believe we wouldn't have acted in the same way had we not been ruled by a bunch of right wing charlatans and chancers intent on protecting their Brexit biased position. They were hugely influenced in how they would act, driven by factors other than the protection of broader society. And no, I'm not suggesting Corbyn was the right person but I am saying a more compassionate, transparent, listening, government who had something more than irrational disdain for experts would have given us a better reponse. We didn't have it, from either side, and it is strange to me that many choose not to see that (not saying you @Van Wolfie, just generally).

Boris nearly paid the ultimate price for that, I argue that others do every day by sheer dint of the fact that more died than should. But I also recognise that the right wing media will spin the story, Cummings will ensure any enquiry or investigation is blocked just as they did with the Russia report and us rampant Trotskyists out here on the communist fringes of the left wing will keep feeling we've been utterly let down while some at the other end will think we've been gloriously served by our wonderful leaders. 

I love it when you get a nice balanced view expressed on this forum.

[maxjam]

11 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

For me it's interesting to see how people took different lengths of time to appreciate the seriousness. I was the first one in our house. My missus was about a week behind me and was mocking my concern as OTT at one point. A week later she was getting cross with our eldest lad who was still coming and going as he pleased, bringing friends round the house etc. A week after that the penny finally dropped with him

Similar situation here.  We we're getting mixed messages at first from the government (who inturn got their warnings  (or lack of)  from the WHO and China before I lay the blame soley at their feet!) about it only effecting the elderly and people with existing underlying problems so I didn't take it to seriously - just another media scare story.  Aaarrgghh, an asteroid might hit us in 50 years time!

Then daily society grinded to a halt as people of all ages and health started dying.

I've gone from meh, the sooner I get it the sooner I get over it to having a 3 day quarantine area in the house for non-essential deliveries, wiping down food deliveries before putting away in cupboards and generally putting as much distance between myself and others as possible.  And my wife is even more paranoid than me ?

I think my whole extended family has become more cautious at different times as the weeks have gone on and people I used to stop and chat to whilst out walking my dog leave increasing wide distances between others and just wave as they scour the surroundings plotting their route through the park!

 

[Ghost of Clough]

14 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Similar situation here.  We we're getting mixed messages at first from the government (who inturn got their warnings  (or lack of)  from the WHO and China before I lay the blame soley at their feet!) about it only effecting the elderly and people with existing underlying problems so I didn't take it to seriously - just another media scare story.  Aaarrgghh, an asteroid might hit us in 50 years time!

Then daily society grinded to a halt as people of all ages and health started dying.

I've gone from meh, the sooner I get it the sooner I get over it to having a 3 day quarantine area in the house for non-essential deliveries, wiping down food deliveries before putting away in cupboards and generally putting as much distance between myself and others as possible.  And my wife is even more paranoid than me ?

I think my whole extended family has become more cautious at different times as the weeks have gone on and people I used to stop and chat to whilst out walking my dog leave increasing wide distances between others and just wave as they scour the surroundings plotting their route through the park!

 

I think the worst thing the government have said is "herd immunity". It was like actively asking people to go out to catch it to get it out of the way. The message seemed to be that most people in the country will catch it, so why not get it early and if the worst happens, then at least the demand on the NHS is at it's lowest.

[GboroRam]

13 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Similar situation here.  We we're getting mixed messages at first from the government (who inturn got their warnings  (or lack of)  from the WHO and China before I lay the blame soley at their feet!) about it only effecting the elderly and people with existing underlying problems so I didn't take it to seriously - just another media scare story.  Aaarrgghh, an asteroid might hit us in 50 years time!

Then daily society grinded to a halt as people of all ages and health started dying.

I've gone from meh, the sooner I get it the sooner I get over it to having a 3 day quarantine area in the house for non-essential deliveries, wiping down food deliveries before putting away in cupboards and generally putting as much distance between myself and others as possible.  And my wife is even more paranoid than me ?

I think my whole extended family has become more cautious at different times as the weeks have gone on and people I used to stop and chat to whilst out walking my dog leave increasing wide distances between others and just wave as they scour the surroundings plotting their route through the park!

 

The WHO obviously didn't get off to the best start, presumably from a reluctance to call out China for understating the death count. But to say that it wasn't clearly a major disaster in the making I think is a little underplaying the response. To say that the WHO didn't announce it as a pandemic is true, however they did say at the time that it was purely down to how it's classified, and in no way should that not mean it isn't an international emergency.  China was clear that they were locking down parts of the country and people are dying in serious volumes.

January we were learning about this disease. February we knew all we needed to know but for some reason didn't or couldn't respond with the kinds of actions that we needed. Other countries were increasing their testing capacity, and we're still far behind on that scale. We failed to lock down some major sporting events until it was too late. We found we were short of PPE, but didn't or couldn't order what we should have. We missed opportunities to be involved in EU procurement of ventilators, which in hindsight seems to have not come to much anyway. We didn't block travellers entering the country if they were showing signs of a raised temperature.  We didn't carry out routine testing in the streets - even if it was just checking for elevated temperature and signs of fever.

Hindsight? Some of it possibly. But I'm sure if it was Corbyn failing to adopt these measures the usual suspects would be calling out the failures. And maybe I'd be downplaying them, saying how hindsight is great - but I'd like to think I'd be a bit more reflective.

Surely we should expect some leadership from those in positions of power? 

[Dimmu]

Looks comfy! 

[maxjam]

36 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

The WHO obviously didn't get off to the best start, presumably from a reluctance to call out China for understating the death count. But to say that it wasn't clearly a major disaster in the making I think is a little underplaying the response. To say that the WHO didn't announce it as a pandemic is true, however they did say at the time that it was purely down to how it's classified, and in no way should that not mean it isn't an international emergency.  China was clear that they were locking down parts of the country and people are dying in serious volumes.

January we were learning about this disease. February we knew all we needed to know but for some reason didn't or couldn't respond with the kinds of actions that we needed. Other countries were increasing their testing capacity, and we're still far behind on that scale. We failed to lock down some major sporting events until it was too late. We found we were short of PPE, but didn't or couldn't order what we should have. We missed opportunities to be involved in EU procurement of ventilators, which in hindsight seems to have not come to much anyway. We didn't block travellers entering the country if they were showing signs of a raised temperature.  We didn't carry out routine testing in the streets - even if it was just checking for elevated temperature and signs of fever.

Hindsight? Some of it possibly. But I'm sure if it was Corbyn failing to adopt these measures the usual suspects would be calling out the failures. And maybe I'd be downplaying them, saying how hindsight is great - but I'd like to think I'd be a bit more reflective.

Surely we should expect some leadership from those in positions of power? 

We need a proper independent review once this is all over.   

From what I can gather, China and the WHO downplayed things up to begin with.  Furthermore they said it didn't transmit human to human and discouraged travel bans.  Thats misinformation at worst, flawed information at best.  Either way, if we had recieved proper early warnings the worldwide death toll could have apparently been anything from 50%-90% less.

Our government changed its approach from herd immunity to social distancing, all the time saying they were taking advice from experts.  Did the experts get it wrong?  Did the experts not have enough data or was data just wrong (see previous paragraph) which meant the initial strategy was flawed?  Or did the government take advice, think they knew better and did what they thought was best anyway?

Given that everyone is gonna try to deflect blame, I can see China/the WHO coming under some serious pressure from the rest of the world.  And probably rightly so from what little bit I know about things - but as I said to begin with, lets start with a proper independent review before we start calling for heads to roll.

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

I love it when you get a nice balanced view expressed on this forum.

Go for it, balance away - put something on the table that shows the other side. Go for it, really.....

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

If we had started the lock down 3-4 weeks earlier, we'd be going stir crazy right now.

I'm off the opinion that somehow we need to loosen the shackles a little bit for the economy to start returning. Loosening the shackles needs to be done such at the NHS capacity remains in place.

It already is but treatments followed by Vaccine are the true answer. I fear all these solutions for treatments we read about (Drugs, blood etc) are being done when its too late. Somehow we need to identify people earlier and give them a better chance of recovery by utilising treatments when the body can still work better. 

 

Think about those on the 'vulnerable' list. We have 12 weeks of this, and my guess is that any relaxation of the confinement conditions won't apply to us. In fact, my guess is that I will be 'confined to barracks' for 26 weeks at least, and perhaps as much as a year. The problem there is that will apply to the Memsahib as well.

[Uptherams]

32 minutes ago, maxjam said:

We need a proper independent review once this is all over.   

From what I can gather, China and the WHO downplayed things up to begin with.  Furthermore they said it didn't transmit human to human and discouraged travel bans.  Thats misinformation at worst, flawed information at best.  Either way, if we had recieved proper early warnings the worldwide death toll could have apparently been anything from 50%-90% less.

Our government changed its approach from herd immunity to social distancing, all the time saying they were taking advice from experts.  Did the experts get it wrong?  Did the experts not have enough data or was data just wrong (see previous paragraph) which meant the initial strategy was flawed?  Or did the government take advice, think they knew better and did what they thought was best anyway?

Given that everyone is gonna try to deflect blame, I can see China/the WHO coming under some serious pressure from the rest of the world.  And probably rightly so from what little bit I know about things - but as I said to begin with, lets start with a proper independent review before we start calling for heads to roll.

Especially because the Pentagon are now investigating it's origin. I've seen multiple videos that have conducted research into where the origin is as the wet market is where it spread and not began. As the researchers have highlighted, the CCP are not very good at covering their tracks. Cached publicly available of people who gave researched Bats and virology, for over a decade, working in this lab, 280 metres from the wet market, who have been removed from existance essentially.