Sussex Ram

14 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

Have Derby County and the administrators been informed of what is happening?

I think if I just do this:

@Owen87ITK

then it might work it’s way to the attention of the right people at the club, fairly quickly? Although I suspect they might already be aware…

I know there are a lot of Derby fans living a long way from the city, myself included. It’s my opinion that those people could have a much greater impact in contacting their local MP, to get this message spread wide. If the sports minister is getting this message passed on from 20, 30, 40 MPs rather than the four MPs local to the city, surely that garners more attention?

I have read comments on other threads about the change.org petition, and how it should be on the government website to demand a government response. Those petitions get discussed in Parliament weeks, if not months, after they reach the required number of signatures. We don’t have that much time.

For those (like me) who feel angry, powerless, frustrated, scared of what’s to come next: do what you can. Contact your local MP. Sign the petition. Support this club, it’s players, it’s manager.

@David- echoing the call for this thread to be pinned alongside the petition thread, please.

Starting a petition on the government website would theoretically get this debated in Parliament (subject to enough signatures) but ultimately I am not sure that would help much. 

In my opinion, the key is to get the details of this situation into the mainstream media. As outraged as we Derby fans all are (rightly so) I am equally as astounded that this just doesn’t seem to register at all in the papers or on the main sports outlets. Why is no one talking about the claims from Boro and Wycombe? And the clear conflict of interest with Steve Gibson sat on the board of the EFL?

if this petition helps get that conversation started, we should all get bang behind it. Signed. Shared.

1 hour ago, TigerTedd said:

In your opinion. In the opinion of whoever votes for this, it’s always just about who topped the form table in that month. There’s almost no thought that goes into it. 

A but like when man of the match goes to the guy who scored the only goal in a 1-0 win, despite the fact he didn’t do anything else all game. It’s inevitable. 

This is absolutely true, from what I’ve seen in the past. Happy to be shown an instance where I’m wrong, but they just pick the manager of the team with the best monthly form. Hardly worth having a “panel” to decide.

I know I’m biased (and if you’re reading this, you are too) but surely Rooney has to win it in December? In terms of getting the most out of what he has to play with (which, at the risk of causing an argument, is surely the manager’s main job), Rooney cannot be beaten this month?

This is my kind of thread! To answer the question directly, I’d say a <5% chance now. If you’d have asked me before the Blackpool game, I’d have said <1%. These three wins have been massive for the club.

A lot of what the OP has said is exactly what I have said to myself.

It’s the hope that kills you. That is 100% true.

If we had beat Barnsley and P’Boro rather than lost, we’d now be third bottom and five points off Reading- which would have made Monday’s game even more massive than it is now. And in that hypothetical scenario, I would have our chance of survival at more like 25%- showing just how disappointing those two losses were, in hindsight.

Also, the % chance hangs heavily on the outcome of the administration process. My 5% is based on my opinion that a preferred bidder will be named early in January- generating a £5million non-refundable deposit, which removes the need for a “fire sale” to generate funds to keep us running for the rest of the season.

Also assuming we don’t add any players in January. Whilst reinforcements would be brilliant, my opinion is they would need to have the right attitude to be maximally effective. Knife between the teeth, backs against the wall, run themselves into the ground for the team etc.

Finally, I don’t think we can expect or rely upon any more points deductions for other teams this season. Surely there’s not enough time left for it to go through the EFL’s notoriously slow decision making process?

17 hours ago, Ramarena said:

Decent battling performance, plenty of hard work defensively but precious little on offer going forwards.

Stearmans done well considering his lack of game time, Knight and Bird have shown a few glimpses but they are clearly overrun and the ball keeps going over their heads.

Need to hang on 2nd half, they’ve created chances but haven’t had the cutting edge to take them. We can’t rely on them fluffing their lines!

Ermmmm…

Lots of differing opinions on here, most of them fairly well balanced, which makes for a great read. One thing we can all agree on is that this process is tiresome, frustrating and (as @angieramsaid) pretty much blind to the fans.

I always try to come back to the facts, which admittedly are few. Quantuma publicly stated there were 3 bidders in the running. Now there are 2. In my mind, CK’s withdrawal is only a massive problem if he was “first in the queue” to be preferred bidder.

But if he was first in the queue, why would he pull out now? If he was first in the queue, why did he (allegedly) increase his bid twice? If he was first in the queue, why haven’t Quantuma (allegedly) spoken to him in a long time?

On balance, those questions make me believe that CK was unlikely to be named the preferred bidder- in which case we have lost very little. I say “very little” in the context of avoiding liquidation, which to me is the main (only?) goal at this stage. Long term we all obviously want a committed, savvy and rich (!) owner who brings the club success- and CK MIGHT have been that owner. But it is impossible to say right now who will be the best owner for DCFC in 3 years’ time.

Final note on my use of the word “allegedly”. Those who are desperate to know something are likely to believe anything. For those reading this thread and feeling despondent, remind yourself of the difference between opinion and fact, and keep the faith. COYR.

6 hours ago, Unlucky Alf said:

So, What ya sayin?

? With hindsight, what I posted didn’t make a huge amount of sense. If anyone can tell me how to delete a post after it’s been made, I’d appreciate it greatly ?

.

9 minutes ago, Crewton said:

It's a "deemed consent" decision, meaning that a meeting did not have to be held because less than 10% of the creditors in value objected to the proposed decision/Administrators proposals. 

It was made on 1st December. There's no other indication of what those proposals were. They could be a proposal for payment to the various class of creditors. They could be a decision to appoint a liquidator, although I'm doubtful that that would have passed under the deemed consent option this early in the process - but I stress it's not impossible, just unlikely IMHO. 

Thank you, Crewton. I have no idea who you are, but because you said it so confidently and clearly (and I know literally nothing about these processes myself!) I automatically believe what you’re saying is true ? 

Given the document is dated the 3rd Dec, and it became visible on the 15th, is it more likely that the “10 days to view this document” have already passed? And that means no further information will become available on 24th Dec?

If so, maybe we are slightly further on than we thought. If this document is confirmation that DCFC’s creditors agree to the administrators’ proposals, surely that is a huge hurdle overcome? Any company law experts on here able to confirm?

Maybe the meeting today between administrators and supporters groups might be a place where we find out more. Here’s hoping.

10 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Why doesn't Morris just pay the tax bill that he racked up and then all of this debate will be a total irrelevance

I believe he is legally prevented from doing so. When placing your company into liquidation, you hand over all control to the administrators- and the club is not your business any longer. As a result, I can’t see any way that Mel Morris could pay HMRC now and them accept that as settlement of the debt. For instance, if any of us called up HMRC today and offered to pay £10 towards Derby’s debt, I don’t think they could accept it (not that I’m about to try and test that!). Now Mel Morris has walked away from the club, he’s treated no differently to us in that regard.

The same goes for all the other creditors- we can’t clear the debts on behalf of Mel or the club. But the St Johns Ambulance fundraiser was outstanding, a touch of class from the fans.

Also, the basis for placing a business in administration is that you can’t pay your debts. So if Mel paid off his debts a couple of months after filing for administration, I suspect that Companies House/HMRC/other creditors/the fraud police (?!) might have some questions about that!

Finally, if Mel had cleared all or part of the HMRC debt before administration, surely we would have failed P&S by an eye-watering amount. To spend c.£28m without corresponding income makes it impossible to limit losses to £13m per year on average.

I am not defending Mel, really I’m not. He should have run this club much smarter, and he sanctioned costs that we’re unsustainable-putting us where we are now. I’m just pointing out that this is a web he spun over a matter of 5 or 6 years, and there’s no easy unravelling of the mess he made.

And there is no excuse for not clearing the St John Ambulance debt and some other amounts owed to local businesses before he left. What damage would £50k or so have done to the DCFC balance sheet? Nothing, relatively speaking. But it might have been crucial income for the charities and local businesses who now stand to receive very little.

12 hours ago, angieram said:

Our goal difference certainly stands out from others around us. It implies that we’ve lost games narrowly, and hence our league position doesn’t reflect how competitive we’ve been this year? Those that actually watch the games (and not just the highlights, like me!) will probably be able to say if that’s true.

Naturally, there is a lot of speculation about the identity of the parties who are serious contenders to buy the club. There’s also been a LOT of speculation about the net worth of some of those parties- Chris Kirchner being the main one, as he is the only publicly known bidder (I think?)

My question is- how much does their net worth really matter? Obviously if they have £10k in the bank then it’s a problem (!), but if P&S limits losses to £39m over three years, or roughly £1m a month, then that puts a limit on how much the owner can put in. Right? Can someone who knows about this stuff confirm?

So an owner can be worth $7bn, or $1.5bn, or whatever- but if they can’t pump more than £13m into the club per year, what’s the difference? I’d rather have an owner who is “worth” a fraction of the above amounts, but is a shrewd businessman or woman; delegates transfer activity to a top recruitment team; puts trust in the academy; and doesn’t ever leave Derby at risk of liquidation.

Can anyone recommend a pub near the ground that might have some friendly DCFC faces around? My first Derby game in nearly 3 and a half years, so excited to experience a bit of the great atmosphere that’s been much discussed on here. 

2 hours ago, Owen87ITK said:

I think it was 71 games ago, the 3-2 victory at Millwall in the first game after LockDown I.

Haven’t done it at home since Frank was manager. 

A truly incredible stat. And to do it against a team who have only conceded a single goal away from home in the league all season. Even that was their first away game.

There seems to be a lot of demand on this forum for Cashin to break into the first team. I can see why- we haven’t got a great record of bringing through young centre backs, and Cashin seems to be strong and decent enough with the ball at his feet to match our style of play.

But watching the U23s highlights back, I question whether he has the pace to compete at championship level. Can anyone who attends the games regularly give a view on that?

Not sure where to post this, but it looks like David Marshall is no longer listed in the squad on the DCFC app. That section of the app is notoriously bad for accuracy (it lists Buchanan as a CM and Ebosele as a striker!), and I also have no idea if this is a recent change- but all the signs point towards Marshall never playing first team football for us ever again (except in the case of a freak double injury to Roos and Allsop).

2 minutes ago, Pearl Ram said:

Ay up, no Stretton, maybe see him Sunday ? ?

Out with a minor knee injury, expected to resume training next week.

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The incentive is to prepare for next season

That’s a fair point. But how do we best prepare? That’s the golden question. In my opinion, the best preparation is actually to move people out rather than in. I can’t see too many scenarios where we bring in players in during January in preparation for playing League 1 football next year. It would have to work for Derby, the player, the EFL and the player’s existing club (if they have one) to get over the line. Can you think of any such scenarios where that might lead to someone new coming in?

Does anyone know the year by year breakdown of our P&S losses? The Agreed Decision from the EFL states losses over various 3 or 4 year rolling periods, as per their guidelines, but it’s hard to decipher what loss we made in what year. It would be useful to know what loss we made in the most recent season, so we have an idea of how tight the purse strings need to be this year and next, to remain within P&S limits in future- and avoid yet more points deductions.

That being said, our budget in League 1 will naturally be lower. Does anyone know if the P&S spending limits are lower in League 1? I believe it’s a limit of £39m losses over three years in the Championship.

Not that it changes the outcome, but I tried to do an example calculation of what the losses might have been over all seven seasons referenced in the EFL agreed decision. There is a yo-yo nature to the numbers I have, but if you take the average loss over 7 years, I get £12.53m per season. That is below the effective threshold of £13m loss per year (i.e £39m over three consecutive years).

My numbers might be wrong, and I know the EFL guidelines take a three year average- not seven!- but my point is that 9 points feels quite harsh. We seem to have been walloped because of a timing issue. On the other hand, might these numbers be to-yo in nature due to the sale of the stadium making one year look particular good? It’s so hard to decipher- and like I say, it changes nothing.

With the various points deductions now confirmed, and those deductions in turn all but confirming relegation, the ins and outs of the squad and back room staff becomes the main (only?) “interesting” conversation to be had for the remainder of the season. What a sad situation to be in, that we’ve effectively lost over half a season of competitive football. 

Don’t get me wrong- I am sure all the fans will be in full voice at the games, and we’ll still want to see good football and positive results in the face of adversity. But ultimately it all becomes a bit futile. Is this a sneak peek into what the Super League would have been like, or American sports? Once you’re out the running to win the league/make the playoffs/avoid relegation, you’re coasting into the end of the season.

Playing devils advocate, what incentive do Derby have to bring anyone in during January? I wonder if they will do so to make it seem outwardly like we haven’t yet given up on turning around the points deficit? Although surely every rational person must know it’s practically impossible.

If we admit to ourselves that relegation is unavoidable, why spend the additional money on wages for players that can’t save us? Remember that we still have the P&S rules to adhere to, and minimising costs now will help us in years to come.

I suppose that we might let some players go (those that wouldn’t stay to play in League 1, or on substantial wages, or both) and depending on how many leave, we might strike some short term deals to maintain a large enough squad. But I question how many will leave- what club would pay for e.g. Lawrence/Jozwiak in January, when they can wait and get them for free/cheaper in summer? Derby have no bargaining power in those negotiations.

Even if we did sell players, would we be happy promoting academy players to become part of the 25?

It will be very interesting to see how the club play it- particularly if we do get a new owner in before January. If we don’t get the new owner, then I presume the administrators will rely on existing staff to make those shouts. Does anyone know who within the club make those decisions, with no owner or CEO?

This is why supporting Derby is so frustrating at times. Looking at it objectively (which I can more easily do, as I didn’t see the game last night) you can’t help but be impressed with the season so far. Only two teams have lost fewer games than us. Before last night, we’d conceded the joint fewest goals in the league. With a young squad, thrown together at short notice, with short term deals and massively reduced wages, our form places us mid table (ignoring the points deduction). That points towards significant overachievement in the circumstances, albeit underachievement when compared with where this club should be.

But- and here comes the frustration- I think we all agree that it could have been even better. Last night, it sounds like by rights we should have taken three points. I look at the collapse against Peterborough. The dominance against Preston without a win. Those disappointments make it easy to forget that, at one stage, everyone in the game was writing us off as relegated by a long, long way. We’re already getting within striking distance of safety, and it’s not even November. 

Long may it continue (and don’t mention the points deduction yet to come…)

I’m relatively new to this forum, so hopefully my attempt to add a couple of photos works!

Can’t be 100% confident in the numbers on this particular website, but there’s obvious no reason to doubt them. This season, we have the 27th highest average attendance in the country. 6th best in the Championship; higher than 2 Prem clubs; but lower than 3 League One clubs (a bonus point for anyone who can name them).

Yesterday’s attendance was close to 3,000 higher than the average before the game- an increase of about 15%. My opinion is that an increase like that is a big success, and hopefully stands out to potential buyers. What’s more interesting, is how many of those new fans come back again, as fuel becomes more available (!), the weather gets colder, and the results get better/worse (TBC).

Sounds like we would have taken a point at half time, if offered. It’s games like this that we were throwing away last season, so we can’t be too disappointed. Chalk up another point and move on.

If we could have held on throughout added time at Peterborough, we’d be off the bottom of the table today. What a morale boost that would have been going into the break!