taffyram

I’m looking forward to this, it’s “local” for me. Have been a few times in recent years with my bluebird mates and had to sit on my hands in the home end, secured a ticket in the away end this time to soak up the atmosphere of our excellent Away following….and to join in ? ? 

After that we are almost there. 

He was there to heckle keogh.

white beard? Red outfit? Saw him as well

Hell no
We cant keep freaking shutting down every single second
 

You hire a faded out of work manager, bring in a load of mercenary loans so as to protect the kids. 
Then you hope for investment in the summer so you can assemble an over large squad of mainly hopeless players. 
Leastways that's how I remember 2008.....?

I don’t think preparation for league 1 can begin until post January, when we’ll have a better idea of who’s left. You only need to look at how Wigan’s young talent was snapped up to get an idea of what could happen 

Paul Cook sacked by Ipswich.
Johnson getting grief and in altercations with fans at Sunderland.
Next year is going to be very tough. We will not be in a healthy situation when we go down. It’s going to be very hard to bounce back. First things first is to ensure we’re in League 1. 

Can we change our name to Chelsea and get a home tie every round against the dross every year until the Semi Finals?

If they had used my numbers, we would have got Millwall away!

Just the sort of draw we didn't want.

But, just two games earlier, the expected points target was 43 points!  COYR. Now, in addition to the games that we have been winning, all we need to do is convert 58% of the games that we have been drawing into wins, and only 40%  of the losses into draws. (Sadly, it does not seem as achievable as converting 1-in-3 of our draws into wins ...) 

We all know this. Thing is I start each game hoping for a win. 

It seems that we have a chance of surviving if we can win 1-in-3 of the games that we have been drawing, and turn 1-in-4 of our losses into draws. I expected the conversion rate I be higher!
If you think we could have won 3 of those 9 draws (1-in-3) - and that we can maintain that level of performance until the end of the season - then we may have a good chance of surviving. 
I quite liked the idea of working out what conversion rates (draws into wins, and losses into draws) would have been needed from the first part of the season in order for us to achieve the form that we will need for the rest of the season. I think that it makes it easier to see the scope of the current squad to achieve the necessary uplift by considering the 9 draws and what would have been needed to be uplifted to lead to 3 of them being converted into victories - and what might be needed to sustain this uplift for the rest of the season.
I was also surprised that we may only need to convert 1-in-3 of the draws into wins! That surprised me. 
Anyway, let me know if you found it interesting! The tables with the points calculations follow below! 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Table - if current form continues
If our current form continued, then on average, we would expect to win 6, draw 14, and lose 8 more games.
P     W     D      L      Pts
18    4      9       5      21
28    6     14      8      32               .
46   10    23    13      53 - 21 = 32
 
Conversions (Uplift)
1-in-3 draws into wins (5 out of 14)
1-in-4 losses into draws (2 out of 8)
P     W     D      L   
28    6    14      8    
            /  \     /   \
28   6+5   9+2    6   
 
Final Table - with Uplift
P     W     D      L      Pts
18    4      9       5      21
28   11    11      6      44               .
46   15    20    11      65 - 21 = 44
 
 
44 points
The target of 44 points may be low, but it has been enough in 3 of the past 4 seasons (although this is also 3 out of the past 7 seasons). From 2014/15, survivors have secured the following points: 46, 49, 51, 43, 44, 49 & 44 points.
If we are going to survive, I think that we have to assume that it will be one of those 44-point seasons?
It would be too much pressure to aim for 51 points.
Maybe it is possible to look at historical league table standings in November, and correlate them to how many points were needed to survive, to indicate what might be a realistic points target for survival?
If we are on track, teams around us may bottle it! They will see a 65-point team chasing down a 44-point team! (As we know, teams can get the wobbles towards the end of the season!)
Important note: I cannot believe that you have read down to the end! All of these comments assume that we will not have our post-Christmas slump! Come to think of it, isn't it nice to know that it is impossible for us to slip down the table after Christmas this year!

Nice one, Melvyn.

Probably and it’s probably for the best now, both have probably reached what they can do here and now and we have players behind them who need game time.
Part of our problem was not letting players go at the right time, stunting their development and their market value. 

Not as of present. I think we're pretty lightweight for league one, we lack pace and power. And the obvious in a few strikers. 

Not without a goal-scoring striker or two.

Crikey, a Saturday ko @ 3pm!! It’ll never catch on.

Prepared or not i just hope we've got a club and team to support. Just play the kids so they experience grown up fotball ready for next year

Blood the youth as much as possible and rest the ones we’re moving on, even the most optimistic Rams fan surely knows deep down we have zero chance of staying up. 

How would a team prepare for the Championship in the Prem? How does a team prepare for League 1?

Not a doom and gloom thread, not a Rooney bashing thread, but a realist thread. Should we now be preparing for League 1 and stop the “we’ll fight till the end talk”? 
 
The task was neigh on impossible with the -21 points, even adding them back on we’d still be heading into a relegation battle, so for me we should start the preparations now. Any saleable asset that will save our club and reduce the hmrc debt we should be looking to move on for a fee in Jan, if this means resting them and “playing the kids” to avoid injuries then so be it, and if that makes us a lot less competitive that’s on the EFL’s head not ours. We should be giving as many minutes as possible to the ones that will be staying for the rebuild. 

5 stages of grief.
1. Denial - All paper talk Mel has the EFL on strings, books where already signed off.
2. Anger - My god it was Mel all time time, what a massive cu..
3. Bargaining - We have a good case to get admin overturned - Mel said it’ll only be 4 points for 1 year. How much will HMRC take to duck off?
4. Depression - Duck me, this reality is dawning on me -will we have a club.
5. Acceptance - Were going down despite it being mathematically possible to stay up.
Yesterday’s result pushed me to the acceptance stage. I don’t think we’ll be liquidated but I’m sure we’re going down.
Getting out of this mess with DCFC still in existence will do me.