Transfer rumours

[Rich3478]

27 minutes ago, one_chop said:

Can someone explain this FFP fiddle ?.

Why would a buying club pay over the odds on purpose?

The basic fiddle is that all the value of a sale goes to ffp instantly, where as a purchase is spilt over the length of a contract (up to five years).

so kellyman for £18m, costs Chelsea £3.6m per season. Villa get £18m of pure profit.

[MACKWORTHRAM]

19 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

Darren Witcoop done a Q&A on X, a few things ref Derby -

- Zetterstrom isnt our first choice, was looking at someone else (not Iversen)

- We are front runners for Dembele but says ultimately money talks

- The winger he was on about the other day was Poveda who has gone to Sunderland

- Also there was a free agent we were after but he looks to be going elsewhere now

Wonder who the free agent was?

[Eoghan1884]

23 minutes ago, Eoghan1884 said:

I did think the winger he suggested was Poveda. Also I wonder if warnes zoom call is with Dembele. Sheffield Wednesday and ourselves seem to be the front runners for Dembele but it seems Sheffield Wednesday are putting all funds and effort into getting Ugbo back first. 

Why would he zoom JWZ if he’s going to be in Derby 😉. Must be Dembele or another foreign target.

[JfR]

46 minutes ago, one_chop said:

Can someone explain this FFP fiddle ?.

Why would a buying club pay over the odds on purpose?

It's to do with how profits and losses on players are recorded in accounts. It only works because the two clubs are buying and selling between each other, so they're both paying over the odds. It can give both clubs higher profits in the short term, albeit with the risk of bigger losses in the future, though there's every possibility that we see the cost of sales rise exponentially over the coming years as a way to try to cover these, which is the danger of it.

[Ambitious]

Poveda is apparently a talented footballer who struggles to stay fit and doesn’t have much end product. I’m really not sure how he would’ve been on our radar considering that we seem to be going heavily on analytics. I’m surprised that Sunderland are paying him so well too. 

A 24 year old attacking winger with three career goals is terrible, regardless of talent that’s the body of work he’s achieved in 5/6 years of professional football. 

[MackworthRamIsGod]

29 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

Poveda is apparently a talented footballer who struggles to stay fit and doesn’t have much end product. I’m really not sure how he would’ve been on our radar considering that we seem to be going heavily on analytics. I’m surprised that Sunderland are paying him so well too. 

A 24 year old attacking winger with three career goals is terrible, regardless of talent that’s the body of work he’s achieved in 5/6 years of professional football. 

I would love to spend a day with our recruitment team to see what our strategy is to signing players.

Are we methodical in our approach, do have we have targets in mind and are happily pursuing them, or are we like a dog running at a pack of pigeons 

[Ghost of Clough]

18 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

Poveda is apparently a talented footballer who struggles to stay fit and doesn’t have much end product. I’m really not sure how he would’ve been on our radar considering that we seem to be going heavily on analytics. I’m surprised that Sunderland are paying him so well too. 

A 24 year old attacking winger with three career goals is terrible, regardless of talent that’s the body of work he’s achieved in 5/6 years of professional football. 

These are his stats for the last 2 seasons (limited game time in both). I've also highlighted what I would consider to be the key stats to look at for our wide forwards.

In both seasons, he showed a very good defensive work ethic, plenty of forward/penetrative passes, a good dribbling ability, and a tendency to get on the ball in the box. At relegated Blackpool (with Yates as the main CF), hisshot creation was below average, and shooting average. Last season in a better Sheff Weds side, his showed himself to be one of the most crata8ve players in the league, but took on very few shots. This latter point can be explained by a very clear instruction to get the ball to their CFs for them to shoot instead.

I understand he was fit for most of last season, Leeds just chose to use other players, woth him being a regualr at Sheff Weds until they started planning for this season. Blackpool just saw him as a rotation option. Perhaps due to being inconsistent?

[Ambitious]

2 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

I would love to spend a day with our recruitment team to see what our strategy is to signing players. 

Are we methodical in our approach, do have we have targets in mind and are happily pursuing them, or are we like a dog running at a pack of pigeons 

I think this time we're definitely putting an emphasis on technical scouting (statistics) and it's allowing us to see a bigger picture. Albeit I assume every professional side in the country are doing the same, so you have to play around with the metrics. 

For example, I could tell right away when it came to Kenzo there had been a particular emphasis on dribbling and mid/long-range passing. It was obviously important to bring in someone who could carry the ball up the pitch and play a counter-attacking football, i.e. hit a winger/striker in stride running behind the lines. 

This is data available to everyone, obviously the club have access to much more high resolution data and can probably filter out as much as they need to in order to create a shortlist and then it would be down to the recruitment/scouts to go watch the players - unfortunately this is where human error takes hold of the process. 

Everyone's also looking for the perfect player, which doesn't exist, so there's naturally going to be compromises in the process that can result in something being missed that later becomes problematic. I think we signed a lot of injury-susceptible players last summer which showed up as a collective in their minutes played. It looks like we are placing a greater emphasis on that now, with the players coming in having extremely good availability in the past 2-3 years. 

[Foreveram]

21 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

I would love to spend a day with our recruitment team to see what our strategy is to signing players.

Are we methodical in our approach, do have we have targets in mind and are happily pursuing them, or are we like a dog running at a pack of pigeons 

Or even a flock of pigeons ☺️

[Sparkle]

1 hour ago, Ambitious said:

Poveda is apparently a talented footballer who struggles to stay fit and doesn’t have much end product. I’m really not sure how he would’ve been on our radar considering that we seem to be going heavily on analytics. I’m surprised that Sunderland are paying him so well too. 

A 24 year old attacking winger with three career goals is terrible, regardless of talent that’s the body of work he’s achieved in 5/6 years of professional football. 

That lad Sibley has a reasonable goal scoring record considering he hardly played in a more forward role 

[Anag Ram]

4 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

That lad Sibley has a reasonable goal scoring record considering he hardly played in a more forward role 

 

[MackworthRamIsGod]

39 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

Or even a flock of pigeons ☺️

[Ambitious]

3 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

That lad Sibley has a reasonable goal scoring record considering he hardly played in a more forward role 

Sibley has an excellent record when played centrally, at all levels he's been at. 

29 goals and 17 assists in 112 games in AM/CM which includes academy level in there too.

When you consider that all clubs are probably looking at the same datasets, finding a gem isn't always that easy to do because everyone's trying to do the same thing. Premier League clubs are hoovering up talent at such a young age now as well.

[kevinhectoring]

On 27/07/2024 at 09:13, WorcestershireRam said:

West Ham bought him from Wolves for £40m. Maidenhead who are in the non leagues had a 20% sell on clause so were due 8m. However Wolves said they wouldn’t sell Kilman if Maidenhead claimed the full 20% they were due. So they renegotiated for 10% to get 4m which is season changing money at that level.

Saw this. It’s a knotty one. You said ‘WH bought him from Wolves for £40m.” Dont think that’s what happened. I think WH offered 40 and then Wolves went to Maidenhead and said : ‘we’ll only accept the offer if you agree 5 not 10’. Clubs spend all their lives negotiating like this. Maidenhead could have called their bluff. But they didn’t. 
Welcome to capitalism.  The big guy usually crushes the small guy. We might have done the same … 

[Ambitious]

1 minute ago, kevinhectoring said:

Saw this. It’s a knotty one. You said ‘WH bought him from Wolves for £40m.” Dont think that’s what happened. I think WH offered 40 and then Wolves went to Maidenhead and said : ‘we’ll only accept the offer if you agree 5 not 10’. Clubs spend all their lives negotiating like this. Maidenhead could have called their bluff. But they didn’t. 
Welcome to capitalism.  The big guy usually crushes the small guy. We might have done the same … 

I know Wolves got hammered for this, and the optics aren't the greatest, but I don't see what they've done wrong. 

Wolves had a value what they wanted out of the deal, West Ham would've been short of that value given the clause to Maidenhead. Instead of rejecting the deal because the value was short of what they wanted, they opened a discussion with Maidenhead. 

Wolves were always going to get what they wanted out of the deal, perhaps they overplayed their hand a little. However, they were the ones in control of the negotiation.  

[kevinhectoring]

5 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I know Wolves got hammered for this, and the optics aren't the greatest, but I don't see what they've done wrong. 

Wolves had a value what they wanted out of the deal, West Ham would've been short of that value given the clause to Maidenhead. Instead of rejecting the deal because the value was short of what they wanted, they opened a discussion with Maidenhead. 

Wolves were always going to get what they wanted out of the deal, perhaps they overplayed their hand a little. However, they were the ones in control of the negotiation.  

We’ll never know. If Wolves genuinely decided - we need 32m or he stays, then there was no gaming, they simply played a straight bat. But that’s unlikely. More likely they thought : 4m is a fortune to Maidenhead and the likelihood is they’ll take it if we  persuade them we might keep the guy if they don’t. 
Nightmare for the small club. I suspect they got out manoeuvred … 

But I agree with you when you say Wolves did nowt wrong. It’s the way of the world 

[Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster]

2 hours ago, JfR said:

It's to do with how profits and losses on players are recorded in accounts. It only works because the two clubs are buying and selling between each other, so they're both paying over the odds. It can give both clubs higher profits in the short term, albeit with the risk of bigger losses in the future, though there's every possibility that we see the cost of sales rise exponentially over the coming years as a way to try to cover these, which is the danger of it.

So,a bit like I have a monkey that's made a random squiggle, and I can pretend it's "art" and will convince you - an established art buyer and seller that it's worth £10m..,

Then you. as the established art trader buys it for £10m, then it must be worth that, because you're an expert.

So others that know you're an expert have pegged the price at £10m, so it can only increase of course.

So, then someone else will pay £15m for it, because " the great art guru " has deemed it worth that and it can only increase, surely?

Or, I'm the little kid in the " Emperor's Clothes " fairytale left stroking his chin.... Hmmm.

[Ambitious]

https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/topic/332289-breaking-michael-smith-to-derby-county/ 

Wednesday fans talking as though this has credence, although not sure how genuine the link is.

I'm fairly sure this wouldn't be well-received by the majority on here either. If we are in for one more striker, and this is the striker, I'd be concerned. I genuinely wouldn't mind Smith as an option, he's better than Washington and Collins, but he's a known limited entity at Championship level. 

[Andicis]

5 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/topic/332289-breaking-michael-smith-to-derby-county/ 

Wednesday fans talking as though this has credence, although not sure how genuine the link is.

I'm fairly sure this wouldn't be well-received by the majority on here either. If we are in for one more striker, and this is the striker, I'd be concerned. I genuinely wouldn't mind Smith as an option, he's better than Washington and Collins, but he's a known limited entity at Championship level. 

Would be genuinely very pissed off with the club if we did that. That's a horrible transfer. Hopefully nothing in it. 

[Rammy03]

13 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Would be genuinely very pissed off with the club if we did that. That's a horrible transfer. Hopefully nothing in it. 

I tend to agree. We as a club just cannot seem to stop signing over the hill, slow, journeyman forwards. When was the last time we had a proper striker at this level? Marriott looked promising for a time but never truly lived up to the hype.