Where do you think we'll finish this season?

[Comrade 86]

Just now, eddielewis said:

Dwight Gayle is a hamstring issue depends which grade it is

Three weeks minimum I reckon. Do we know how Collo is getting on? Might need him.

[RadioactiveWaste]

1 minute ago, Comrade 86 said:

Three weeks minimum I reckon. Do we know how Collo is getting on? Might need him.

Wasn't that looking like end of march?

[Comrade 86]

Just now, RadioactiveWaste said:

Wasn't that looking like end of march?

Well that's not too bad, though I'd guess he'll be a way off peak. That said, I'd certainly be happy to see him back. Without him or Gayle, I think it's a real struggle for the rest of the team as we miss their work rate as much as their goals.

[Bris Vegas]

21 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

I still recall your 'we won't lose another game this season' post and I can't recall a single prediction you've ever made coming true, bar the season you had Citeh winning the title. With that in mind, I'll ignore this latest waffle, but thanks for your valuable insight all the same. Great to see you enjoying the lads doing well though pal 🥱

Actually it was another game until March, which would have *nearly* been correct had it not been for Posh.

Ignore it all you like. Doesn’t make it not true.

[plymouthram]

50 minutes ago, Kernow said:

Don’t see how Lincoln can be stopped at the moment, surprised they aren’t predicted to be 6th. I’d hate to face them in the play-offs, let’s hope after today we’ve taken a big step towards avoiding that.

Hope Lincoln keep it up, they play home to Pompey last game of the season.

[Caerphilly Ram]

6 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Actually it was another game until March, which would have *nearly* been correct had it not been for Posh.

Ignore it all you like. Doesn’t make it not true.

How can something that hasn’t happened yet be proved true? It’s a prediction, you think that’s how it will play out, you don’t know that it will yet once more you’re posting with his aloof tone of knowing all and being better than everyone. 

[Bris Vegas]

22 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

How can something that hasn’t happened yet be proved true? It’s a prediction, you think that’s how it will play out, you don’t know that it will yet once more you’re posting with his aloof tone of knowing all and being better than everyone. 

It’s pretty much basic math given some of the other teams have to play each other.

It’s hardly a jaw-dropping, know-it-all prediction. With only 7 games remaining the picture is pretty clear.

None of the other teams below are averaging more than 2 points per game.

Let’s be generous and give them better than that for the run in.

Bolton to take 16 from 7 (2.3ppg)

Posh and Barnsley to take 19 from 8 (2.375ppg)

So Derby would need 4 wins, Pompey 3. 

 

[ck-]

1 hour ago, Bris Vegas said:

Derby need 4 wins, Pompey probably 3.

Bolton, Posh and Barnsley will drop more points. 89-90 points will be enough.

We’ll easily get it, looking at our remaining fixtures. We can probably afford to lose to Pompey, Wycombe and even Blackpool and we’ll still be fine.

 

2.2 points a game for 7 or 8 games gets the teams in 3rd and 4th to the 89/90 point mark. The likelihood of them exceeding that rate is low I think. 
So we need 12 points from 7 games. Call it 14 to be safe. That’s still 2 points a game, or 4 wins, 2 draws, and  1 loss. 
We’re in the driving seat but it’s still all up for grabs. 

[Caerphilly Ram]

3 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

It’s pretty much basic math given some of the other teams have to play each other.

It’s hardly a jaw-dropping, know-it-all prediction. With only 7 games remaining the picture is pretty clear.

None of the other teams below are averaging more than 2 points per game.

Let’s be generous and give them better than that for the run in.

Bolton to take 16 from 7 (2.3ppg)

Posh and Barnsley to take 19 from 8 (2.375ppg)

So Derby would need 4 wins, Pompey 3. 

 

I just think if you qualify your post for people with that information it makes it clearer that you’ve studied the data and think or predict that we need 4 wins.

Your original post is made with such a matter of fact tone it doesn’t reflect that it’s your opinion based on what you’ve looked at;

1 hour ago, Bris Vegas said:

 

Derby need 4 wins, Pompey probably 3.

Bolton, Posh and Barnsley will drop more points. 89-90 points will be enough.

We’ll easily get it, looking at our remaining fixtures. We can probably afford to lose to Pompey, Wycombe and even Blackpool and we’ll still be fine.

 

Nothing in football is guaranteed, if the stats you’re looking at suggest we’ll win promotion with 4 more wins then that’s great, having that context helps understand the content of your posts is all I’m getting at. 

[Norman]

16 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

It’s pretty much basic math given some of the other teams have to play each other.

It’s hardly a jaw-dropping, know-it-all prediction. With only 7 games remaining the picture is pretty clear.

None of the other teams below are averaging more than 2 points per game.

Let’s be generous and give them better than that for the run in.

Bolton to take 16 from 7 (2.3ppg)

Posh and Barnsley to take 19 from 8 (2.375ppg)

So Derby would need 4 wins, Pompey 3. 

 

Yup, I think Barnsley have 5 away games left. That's a big ask to go at 2.4 points a game average with that many away games. 

Then Bolton have to play Peterborough, so one of those, or both if they draw, are going to have to go at well over 2 points a game average to get to 90 points. 

4 wins should be enough. 

[Crewton]

1 hour ago, Bris Vegas said:

Actually it was another game until March, which would have *nearly* been correct had it not been for Posh.

Ignore it all you like. Doesn’t make it not true.

Like I said, you are Nostradamus, but don't make a habit of it will you?

[Bris Vegas]

6 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

I just think if you qualify your post for people with that information it makes it clearer that you’ve studied the data and think or predict that we need 4 wins.

Your original post is made with such a matter of fact tone it doesn’t reflect that it’s your opinion based on what you’ve looked at;

Nothing in football is guaranteed, if the stats you’re looking at suggest we’ll win promotion with 4 more wins then that’s great, having that context helps understand the content of your posts is all I’m getting at. 

Ok it’s my opinion based on fact. 👍

[Bris Vegas]

3 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Like I said, you are Nostradamus, but don't make a habit of it will you?

Nostradamus died some 500 years ago. Perhaps in another life? 

I don’t like the idea of being French though.

[Caerphilly Ram]

10 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Ok it’s my opinion based on fact. 👍

The current ppg might be fact, how the remaining 7 games will play out isn’t determined as fact yet. A pattern might be derived from the data but that doesn’t account for the variable factors at play. 
That reply is illustrative of the aloof tone I mentioned, but it’s clear you’re set in your ways so I’ll leave it be. 
 

[Eddie]

On 03/02/2024 at 21:10, Eddie said:

Automatics - I don't mind which.

At the start of the season, I said that it was our third spell in the third tier, and in the two previous times, we had got promotion at the second attempt, and I saw no reason at all why this season should be any different to the others.

You can analyse points per game until you are blue in the scrotum for all I care. The fact that Posh and Notlob were on good runs means nothing - both have to pick themselves up after disappointing results today.

Derby, according to a few of you, are faltering, because we've only picked up 10 points in the last 5 games. Well, so have Portsmouth, so have Bolton, so have Peterborough and so have Barnsley. The 'form' team, if there is one, is Stevenage. 4 wins in 5. Or, at a stretch, Leyton Orient with 4 wins and a draw.

I think we'll be ok. That might be my boundless optimism, strange drugs or alcohol speaking, but it's a darned sight better than the inane, depressing drivel that is churned out on here when we win, let alone lose.

I'm bumping my own post here - basically because, once again, it appears that I'm the only forum member with half a brain.

Oh, wait......

[Elwood P Dowd]

Interesting 

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-win-promotion-from-league-one/

[Ramslad1992]

On 14/03/2024 at 23:24, Ramslad1992 said:

Said to anyone who would listen before the reading game… beat reading and Bolton and we are up in my opinion… halfway there 🐏

😎

beat Northampton next week and we are 7 points clear 🐏

[Rich84]

1 hour ago, Norman said:

Yup, I think Barnsley have 5 away games left. That's a big ask to go at 2.4 points a game average with that many away games. 

Then Bolton have to play Peterborough, so one of those, or both if they draw, are going to have to go at well over 2 points a game average to get to 90 points. 

4 wins should be enough. 

Barnsley have only lost once on their travels in the league this season......

[Day]

If we win all of our remaining games, we are not going to Wembley. Fact.

[plymouthram]

Looking at Bolton, Barnsley and Peterboro forums tonight is interesting, most think they are all destined for the play-offs and Pompey and Derby have got the automatics. Well it's in our hands to make that come true and the same can be said for Pompey. But now most teams have 7 or 8 games left to play, standby for some shock results (it always happens). It's the team that holds it nerve, continues to grind out results when not at their best the will come through. I'm hoping Gayle is not too injured to have a say in our remaining games. I hoping Waggy can get much improved now he's back in the squad. I'm also hoping Collins will be back for the April fixtures.

I'm hoping Wycombe 3 match wins stretches to 4 this coming Friday. I don't think Bolton are out of it yet, but we must equal there results upto the end of April. I also don't think Pompey are home and dry yet. After Wycombe they have Derby (h), Shrewsbury (h), Bolton (a), Barnsley (h), Wigan (h) and Lincoln (a). Our next 4 games will put us either back in the pack or home and dry.

One thing is for sure now, the current top 5 will remain in the top 5 (what order is still hard to predict). I have to agree with Paul Warne's pre-match interview stating if Derby lose against Bolton they could win the next 6 matches, well that can be said about Bolton, Barnsley and Peterboro. The interesting point in this league now, is who will get that 6th spot. Oxford currently have it, but face Lincoln next and still have Peterboro and Stevenage to play.  Lincoln in 7th spot on a 13 match unbeaten run (9W & 4D) have smashed in 27 goals and conceded just 4. They have after Oxford, Orient at home and Pompey at the end of the season at the LNER stadium. The other contenders is Stevenage and Blackpool, with Stevenage still to play Bolton, Barnsley and Oxford to play. While Blackpool have the Rams and Barnsley to play. 

I,m still not sure where we will finish, if we get through the next 4 matches still in 2nd spot going into the Pompey game, I would state either 1st or 2nd.