Loughborough Ram Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 A presenter on the radio, seriously pointed out that Everton were doing OK and if the league was calculated on XG stats they would sit 4th in the Premier League. I think that this is enough to confine XG stats to the bin for ever. Walkley Ram, MadAmster and Wolfie 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFC Kicks Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, MadAmster said: Based on the last 2 games Fornah has been off it, hence my reticence to use him. Fair enough. But Fornahs the only midfielder we have with legs, which you need if there's only one DM Chris_Martin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Loughborough Ram said: A presenter on the radio, seriously pointed out that Everton were doing OK and if the league was calculated on XG stats they would sit 4th in the Premier League. I think that this is enough to confine XG stats to the bin for ever. Yep , my bug bear with it on here is posters who see things differently from the warne out NOW brigade ( no probs there it’s they’re opinion ) get this xg guff thrown at them as some kind of proof that ,, see I’m right ,your wrong , the stats say it so it must be so😂😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lrm14 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 38 minutes ago, MadAmster said: Could be an age thing. If I've understood XG correctly, then a run from halfway ending in a 25 yard blockbuster that the keeper tips over the bar doesn't count. To me it should. xG is a way to measure the probability that a shot will result in a goal. So in your example the run wouldn't really be relevant to the result but the type of attempt (ie header vs shot) and location of the attempt on the pitch (ie 25 yards from the center of the pitch or near the throw-in line) would be. Other things are taken into account but those are the big ones. It's meant to be used in conjunction with other stats to give you a better picture of the game. Look at Exeter vs Wigan at the weekend as an example. Exeter had 30 shots, 4 on target and 72% possession. Wigan had 6 shots, 2 on target and 27% possession. The xG according to the Athletic was 1.28 for Exeter and 0.72 for Wigan. The regular stats show us Exeter absolutely battered Wigan and looking at them in isolation it would suggest it could have been a cricket score. When you factor in xG it shows that while they were having a lot of shots, a good chunk of them were low percentage efforts that had little chance of going in. A quick glimpse at the highlights and you see Wigan's first goal was the best chance of the match while Exeter's attempts were all from tight angles, from distance or with a mass of defenders in the way. 16 minutes ago, MadAmster said: In that case I haven't understood XG correctly. How exactly is it calculated? A cursory look on internet seems to point towards there being many different models in use. Does this mean that using one model gives you a different figure than using another model would? Yes, which is why it's not infalliable as a stat when it comes to getting a full picture of the game and why it needs to be used in conjunction with everything else. Statsbomb is used by Opta I believe and they take into account the position of goalkeepers and defenders which gives a more reliable figure. Other models will only use the type of chance, angle, distance, pattern of play and type of assist. It's not the ultimate stat that you simply must to pay attention to by any means but it does give a better picture of the game, how a team is performing, and is used in some capacity by club data anaylsts. MadAmster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Loughborough Ram said: A presenter on the radio, seriously pointed out that Everton were doing OK and if the league was calculated on XG stats they would sit 4th in the Premier League. I think that this is enough to confine XG stats to the bin for ever. XG is a valuable statistic as it determines the quality of chances created. Of course it isn’t flawless because of the ability of the player. You’d expect Mo Salah to score more goals than Van Dijk if given the same opportunities. But the whole idea is to describe the quality of chance. Shots and shots on goal can be misguided if your 30 attempts were all from 30 yards out. Likewise, Shrewsbury’s XG by half time against Derby was comfortably higher because of the penalty - a chance which came about due to a bizarre refereeing decision and not by any quality on Shrewsbury’s part. If I don’t watch a game, the two most valuable statistics for me to judge are final third entries and XG. The final third entries generally shows which team is controlling the ball in dangerous areas (as opposed to 60% possession in your own half) and XG tells me which team is creating the better chances. Possession, shots and even corners play a role in assisting the general consensus. In Everton’s case, it doesn’t surprise me. But you have to take into account who they have played - Fulham, Wolves, Bournemouth, Luton at home it was well documented they created a lot of chances. Brentford and Sheffield United away too. Wolfie and lrm14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lrm14 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Archied said: I’m not selling my viewed experience as evidence to make others believe I know better than them and I don’t need somebody else’s subjective view on the chances I’ve seen with my own eyes to tell me how I should rate them😂 You are actually but nevermind. If you don't care about someone elses view then why are you on a place of discussion ie a forum? Just write a blog if you're not interested in what others have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lrm14 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Loughborough Ram said: A presenter on the radio, seriously pointed out that Everton were doing OK and if the league was calculated on XG stats they would sit 4th in the Premier League. I think that this is enough to confine XG stats to the bin for ever. Have you watched much of them this season? Their strikers have been awful which is exactly what those stats convey. If DCL stays fit they should climb up the table but that's a huge if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Contain Nuts Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Archied said: Yep , my bug bear with it on here is posters who see things differently from the warne out NOW brigade ( no probs there it’s they’re opinion ) get this xg guff thrown at them as some kind of proof that ,, see I’m right ,your wrong , the stats say it so it must be so😂😂😂😂 Except they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Contain Nuts Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Paul Warne mentioned our XG in his pre-match interview. Caerphilly Ram and lrm14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, lrm14 said: You are actually but nevermind. If you don't care about someone elses view then why are you on a place of discussion ie a forum? Just write a blog if you're not interested in what others have to say. No I’m not , I’m giving my view on what I’m seeing , how I feel regards whether I would give warne time or out him now , im on a forum to give my view from watching every game ( either in person as st holder or on rtv I never miss a game ) I read others views who do the same , but I dont take any notice of xg and stats produced to say ,hey see I’m right , depends where you go looking for these stats as to what you get and if you need them to confirm what you see with your own eyes or to tell others how wrong they’re view is then there’s something wrong ,,, in my humble view lrm14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said: Except they don't. They do 🤷🏻♂️ Or are they not using them to back up what they say ? Edited October 23, 2023 by Archied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Contain Nuts Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Archied said: They do 🤷🏻♂️ Or are they not using them to back up what they say ? Use them to back up a wider their point or observation? Yes. Throw them around as definitive proof that they must be right and you must wrong, purely because this one stat says so? No. Edited October 23, 2023 by Kokosnuss Archied 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, MadAmster said: back 5 as in the past couple of games. The 1? Not Fornah based on the past 2 games. As he's Captain, probably Hourihane. The 3? NML Bird Barks The 2? One of Waggy/Wash/Collo with Sibs The 3 plus Sibs can rotate among themselves using their heads and good communication to switch roles at sensible points in the play. It's an adventurous line up. You certainly couldn't play Hourihane in the one, he would be massively exposed. It feels like a chasing the game, last 10 mins sort of line up. Any decent outfit/manager would pick us off very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loughborough Ram Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 57 minutes ago, lrm14 said: Have you watched much of them this season? Their strikers have been awful which is exactly what those stats convey. If DCL stays fit they should climb up the table but that's a huge if. 1 hour ago, Bris Vegas said: XG is a valuable statistic as it determines the quality of chances created. Of course it isn’t flawless because of the ability of the player. You’d expect Mo Salah to score more goals than Van Dijk if given the same opportunities. But the whole idea is to describe the quality of chance. Shots and shots on goal can be misguided if your 30 attempts were all from 30 yards out. Likewise, Shrewsbury’s XG by half time against Derby was comfortably higher because of the penalty - a chance which came about due to a bizarre refereeing decision and not by any quality on Shrewsbury’s part. If I don’t watch a game, the two most valuable statistics for me to judge are final third entries and XG. The final third entries generally shows which team is controlling the ball in dangerous areas (as opposed to 60% possession in your own half) and XG tells me which team is creating the better chances. Possession, shots and even corners play a role in assisting the general consensus. In Everton’s case, it doesn’t surprise me. But you have to take into account who they have played - Fulham, Wolves, Bournemouth, Luton at home it was well documented they created a lot of chances. Brentford and Sheffield United away too. I'm sorry but the enjoyment of football at my age, is watching a game, seeing goals, skill, tackles (make the most of them whilst they're still allowed),wingers going past full backs, towering headers at corners and brilliant teamwork, come on who thought that jumpers for goalposts was next? I accept im old fashioned but I hate the over analysis of games, the constant barrage of pointless statistics, and the clinical dissection of every move by a media, driven by what they can sell on the back of this information. Football in the seventies may have been of an inferior quality but in my opinion it was real, you felt part of it, the excitement and anticipation of actually seeing a game and everything that went with it. Now it just seems so dry and bereft of emotion unless you consider players rehersed celebrations as emotion, personally I hate them. XG may have a point for somebody but for me it absolutely does not. Archied, Caerphilly Ram, Mucker1884 and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_Martin Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Archied said: Yep , my bug bear with it on here is posters who see things differently from the warne out NOW brigade ( no probs there it’s they’re opinion ) get this xg guff thrown at them as some kind of proof that ,, see I’m right ,your wrong , the stats say it so it must be so😂😂😂😂 i'd love to have your view on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram a lamb a ding dong Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) I'm not v well at the moment. If they were worth watching, I would make the effort. I'm not going tomorrow. Say no more........ Just to make mention that whilst Warne remains in charge, things won't improve. I've seen absolutely no signs that he can turn things around and he clearlynis out of his depth. Not sure what the results of the 20 matches are but if that had been replicated from the start of the season, we would be swimming with the fishes Next Rams manager for me needs to be a young ambitious manager who likes the ball to be kept on the ground. Capt Hindsight is a great thing isn't it? Edited October 23, 2023 by Ram a lamb a ding dong Walkley Ram and RoyMac5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_Martin Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, MadAmster said: Posh, 5, 4 of which went in Burton 5, 3 went in Shrews 6 Cheltenham 8 Blackpool 5, 3 of which went in Now, other than Bolton where did we have just a penalty on target, seeing that you can remember "a few games this season where our only shot on goal has been a penalty..."? none of those you can class as a lot of shots, there only just reaching an average amount. A lot would have to be at least 12 Oxford we only had 1 on goal, Portsmouth was only 1 on goal (penalty), The Bolton one was the same, Carlisle was only 2 on goal, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_Martin Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Archied said: I’m not selling my viewed experience as evidence to make others believe I know better than them and I don’t need somebody else’s subjective view on the chances I’ve seen with my own eyes to tell me how I should rate them😂 strange that you don't but nearly all football clubs do when their analysing games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said: i'd love to have your view on things What’s the expected burn down time on that😂😂 you’ve obviously ignored my view on the pressure warne is under and whether I would be hugely dissapointed if he was let go then 🤷♂️, im just not into stat after stat being rolled out by some to tell us what we should think on the matter and when we should think of it , I have my doubts whether warne is going to cut it at a bigger club like derby by his interview s and how he is coming across but I could be very wrong so would be a little bit longer in pulling the trigger if I had to do the firing especially as I have no knowledge how things are inside the club as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said: strange that you don't but nearly all football clubs do when their analysing games Well it’s not doing derby or Everton much good then😂 Edited October 23, 2023 by Archied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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