Will Derby cash in on Bird and Knight

[Curtains]

A prompt  takeover could of course still save the day. .

 

[Betty Swollocks]

I think we have a 1 year option on Buchanan so he should still command a fee.

[sage]

6 minutes ago, Taribo said:

By the workings-out on Transfermarkt the players out of contract at the end of the season include:

Marshall

Buchanan 

Lawrence 

Shinnie

Byrne

So we get less than a pittance for them in January or they walk away for free in May. 

We would still get a fee for Buchanan due to his age.

[SBW]

1 minute ago, Betty Swollocks said:

I think we have a 1 year option on Buchanan so he should still command a fee.

He's also under 24, so there'd be a compensation fee, even if, for example, he was to run down his contract to the end of next season.

 

I suspect what will happen is he'll go somewhere for a low 7 figure fee.  Weren't Celtic linked around the time Forest were bidding? 

[sage]

17 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

I personally feel that will be the outcome. 

Even the most optimistic of people should be slightly alarmed at the administrators shutting up shop to interviews. They had no problem going on Talksport when touting us for a sale, now we get tactical replies with no real substance on social media.

The constant delay in naming a preffered bidder is clearly buying time/stalling in the hope HMRC magically bend over and change their minds.

There is still the chance we survive this, albeit as a league 1 club with a 15 point deduction next season.

I would love Quantuma to tell me I'm wrong, I would absolutely love it.

What is the 15 point deduction for?

[Ravabeerbelly]

2 minutes ago, Betty Swollocks said:

I think we have a 1 year option on Buchanan so he should still command a fee.

I know that the latest the option has to be offered is the third Saturday in April but I’m not sure if there is an earliest date it can be triggered. But surely until it is triggered the players current deal expires in June and and fee will be determined based on that?

[Curtains]

1 minute ago, sage said:

What is the 15 point deduction for?

CVA going forward

[SBW]

Just now, sage said:

What is the 15 point deduction for?

I'm no expert on it, so others will probably know more than me, but I think it's something to do with if you cannot pay you creditors accordingly (i.e those that are owed 100% their share and the others 25%) when you come out of admin, then you get a 15 point deduction.  I think that's what happened at Leeds. 

[Curtains]

3 minutes ago, SBW said:

I'm no expert on it, so others will probably know more than me, but I think it's something to do with if you cannot pay you creditors accordingly (i.e those that are owed 100% their share and the others 25%) when you come out of admin, then you get a 15 point deduction.  I think that's what happened at Leeds. 

Basically a CVA allows you to pay creditors over an agreed period .

It may mean a 15 point deduction next season !

[MackworthRamIsGod]

5 minutes ago, sage said:

What is the 15 point deduction for?

If we can't cut a deal with creditors.

[Curtains]

CVA is a better realization than liquidation.

That might be the way forward 

[atherstoneram]

4 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

If we can't cut a deal with creditors.

If we can't cut a deal with creditors there is no next season

[sage]

Well everyone seems to be wallowing in the worst case scenario.

I will keep enjoying the football, paying my money into the club and wait to see what happens.

Merry Christmas

[SBW]

6 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Basically a CVA allows you to pay creditors over an agreed period .

It may mean a 15 point deduction next season !

Ah I see, so if you agree a deal. i.e a payment plan in simple terms, then you get the 15 points because you need to pay your debts upon coming out of admin? 

Would that be the reason for the big issue over a new owner - they will have to pay all debts straight off the bat and essentially become the sole creditor for the club? If so, you can see why it's a tough sale, as they either need £50m or so in cash straight off the bat, or agree a deal but then own a club who will be -15 in League 1 with likely strong limitations on what business can be done on the field for another couple of years?

If that is the case, then it does make an argument for selling all the crown jewels in Jan if a prospective owner won't (understandably) walk in and pay off the tens of millions.  If the club could raise £10-15m from sales, that's a lot more debt paid of they don't have to, and although it means a tougher rebuild in the summer, surely it's better than -15?  Or I am way off on that?

Sorry to derail.

 

 

[Ravabeerbelly]

 

Of the players that have appeared so far this season here is the squad as it stands :-

Goalkeepers

Roos, Allsop, Marshall

I can only see one leave and Foulkes stepping up as third choice. Losing 2 would make no sense as Foulkes is t ready to be back up keeper which would mean having to sign another keeper anyway…better than Roos / Allsop and on less wages. 

Defenders

Brown, Byrne, Davis, Stearman, Forsyth, McDonald, Ebosele, Jagielka, Buchanan, Williams

I can see Buchanan leaving. There’ll be reasonable interest and he’ll command in the region of £2mill in fees. I can also see Brown being allowed to leave if there’s interest in him. The rest will stay.

Midfield

Shinnie, Bird, Watson, Hutchinson, Knight, Bielik, Morrison, Jozwiak, Sibley, Lawrence, Thompson

I can see Lawrence, Bird, Bielik, Knight, Jozwiak all leaving for reasonable fees (given ages / contract lengths). That could potentially bring in in the region of £10million and save approx £1.5mill in wages.

Sibley seems way out of favour with Rooney and so could be added to that and although opinion seems otherwise I think Morrison ended up only on a short term contract until January and may not even want to renew given body language recently.

So possibly £200,000 in wages saved with a small fee for Sibley so maybe £1 mill tops.

Forwards

Baldock, Kazim Richards, Plange, Stretton

Baldock may not be kept on if Stretton can get himself fit but potentially he may also be extended until June so no savings to be made there at all.

So I make it there’s a possible £10-14million in fees maximum (!!) and potentially £1.5-2mill wages saved……balanced off with potentially 8-10 players leaving…from a squad of 28 as it stands……

Not sure where the replacements are found from that budget….and would anticipate maybe the wages saving being used for some free transfers (which still incur relocation costs and agent fees) but the fees (if any) all contributing to the HMRC bill…..

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Ravabeerbelly

[Tamworthram]

5 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Basically a CVA allows you to pay creditors over an agreed period .

It may mean a 15 point deduction next season !

Assuming this is up to date (it’s from 2015) a CVA doesn’t automatically result in a 15 point deduction but it does mean 1) 35% or more needs to be offered 2) That amount needs to be paid within 3 years. Having said that, given you have three years to pay, I don’t understand how the points can be deducted “at the start of the season following the insolvency event” unless creditors are offered less than 35%. 

On exit, the purchaser will be required to pay creditors a minimum of 35 pence in the pound over 3 years (or 25 pence on transfer of share) or face a further 15 point deduction at the start of the season following the insolvency event.

[Reggie Greenwood]

35 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Because you seem to be implying there is no interest in our players and other clubs aren’t circling 

The article quotes FLW which is not a great source. However I would be surprised if there wasn’t any interest. Wayne was still saying that he would have a say in who stays and leaves the other day.
Suppose we might all know more by the end of the week if the preferred bidder gets announced or not . 

[sage]

6 minutes ago, Ravabeerbelly said:

 

Of the players that have appeared so far this season here is the squad as it stands :-

Goalkeepers

Roos, Allsop, Marshall

I can only see one leave and Foulkes stepping up as third choice. Losing 2 would make no sense as Foulkes is t ready to be back up keeper which would mean having to sign another keeper anyway…better than Roos / Allsop and on less wages. 

Defenders

Brown, Byrne, Davis, Stearman, Forsyth, McDonald, Ebosele, Jagielka, Buchanan, Williams

I can see Buchanan leaving. There’ll be reasonable interest and he’ll command in the region of £2mill in fees. I can also see Brown being allowed to leave if there’s interest in him. The rest will stay.

Midfield

Shinnie, Bird, Watson, Hutchinson, Knight, Bielik, Morrison, Jozwiak, Sibley, Lawrence, Thompson

I can see Lawrence, Bird, Bielik, Knight, Jozwiak all leaving for reasonable fees (given ages / contract lengths). That could potentially bring in in the region of £10million and save approx £1.5mill in wages.

Sibley seems way out of favour with Rooney and so could be added to that and although opinion seems otherwise I think Morrison ended up only on a short term contract until January and may not even want to renew given body language recently.

So possibly £200,000 in wages saved with a small fee for Sibley so maybe £1 mill tops.

Forwards

Baldock, Kazim Richards, Plange, Stretton

Baldock may not be kept on if Stretton can get himself fit but potentially he may also be extended until June so no savings to be made there at all.

So I make it there’s a possible £10-14million in fees maximum (!!) and potentially £1.5-2mill wages saved……balanced off with potentially 8-10 players leaving…from a squad of 28 as it stands……

Not sure where the replacements are found from that budget….and would anticipate maybe the wages saving being used for some free transfers (which still incur relocation costs and agent fees) but the fees (if any) all contributing to the HMRC bill…..

 

 

 

I am amused that you think selling all those players will only save £1.5 to £2m in wages. They are around half of our wage bill.

Lawrence is on over £1.5m alone 

[i-Ram]

13 minutes ago, sage said:

Well everyone seems to be wallowing in the worst case scenario.

I will keep enjoying the football, paying my money into the club and wait to see what happens.

Merry Christmas

The true meaning of Christmas has gone, as it was converted to a monetised commodity asset over 30 years ago. I blame Mel Morris.

[Ravabeerbelly]

5 minutes ago, sage said:

I am amused that you think selling all those players will only save £1.5 to £2m in wages. They are around half of our wage bill.

Lawrence is on over £1.5m alone 

It’s only a 6 month save not an annual one