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Starship and a Human city on Mars


Carl Sagan

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21 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Normal people can yes. 

So where do you fit in, then?

Someone who hates Musk because of his political views primarily, and therefore wants SpaceX not to achieve what many thought unimaginable only a decade a go.

 

Is that normal or rational? 

Edited by Norman
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33 minutes ago, Norman said:

So where do you fit in, then?

Someone who hates Musk because of his political views primarily

Actually no - I don't hate him at all. And certainly not for his political views. He can have whatever political views he wants.

I do however find it deeply weird how he inspires this cult-like quasi-religious devotion from certain people (and that's no exaggeration when our resident Chief Scientist of the Red Pills literally called him the saviour of the human race the other day). Especially when the same people are very quick to tell you how much they dislike religion and the hold it has over people. Go figure.

I'm also raising a strong eyebrow at those on here who have spent the past few years regurgitating talking points from US Youtube videos about how they think Big Tech is run by super rich people with terrifying agendas to suppress our freedom, yet are cheering and whooping for Elon as if the Billionaire Musk doesn't have his own agenda to impose his will on the entire bloody world (X as a super-app anyone? "Let no man buy or sell lest has the number of the beast" etc). Like I say - pop another red pill and tell me when the mist clears

43 minutes ago, Norman said:

and therefore wants SpaceX not to achieve what many thought unimaginable only a decade a go.

Please point me to the place where I said I don't want SpaceX to achieve it's aims? I've actually said multiple times that I would love nothing more than to see a man on Mars, just that my gut (and copious amounts of evidence) lead me to think it's not very likely. Bear in mind that we're still in the "trying to not have the rocket explode shortly after take-off" phase - which should be the easy bit. Then we have the how do we now get it to carry people safely and then the how do we get it all the way to Mars, and then the how do we land it, then what do we do when we get there. In the current trial and error mode that Musk seems to favour I think the best bet is to not have so many people die in the process that we run out of volunteers

 

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On 20/11/2023 at 20:55, Norman said:

Ahhh, you can't be amazed at the achievements of SpaceX without being an Elon fanboi?

Sounds dumb.

I think its the pretence that its Musk's private money that's funding it and not the US taxpayers dosh that makes it all a big scam to some.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Actually no - I don't hate him at all. And certainly not for his political views. He can have whatever political views he wants.

I do however find it deeply weird how he inspires this cult-like quasi-religious devotion from certain people (and that's no exaggeration when our resident Chief Scientist of the Red Pills literally called him the saviour of the human race the other day). Especially when the same people are very quick to tell you how much they dislike religion and the hold it has over people. Go figure.

I'm also raising a strong eyebrow at those on here who have spent the past few years regurgitating talking points from US Youtube videos about how they think Big Tech is run by super rich people with terrifying agendas to suppress our freedom, yet are cheering and whooping for Elon as if the Billionaire Musk doesn't have his own agenda to impose his will on the entire bloody world (X as a super-app anyone? "Let no man buy or sell lest has the number of the beast" etc). Like I say - pop another red pill and tell me when the mist clears

Please point me to the place where I said I don't want SpaceX to achieve it's aims? I've actually said multiple times that I would love nothing more than to see a man on Mars, just that my gut (and copious amounts of evidence) lead me to think it's not very likely. Bear in mind that we're still in the "trying to not have the rocket explode shortly after take-off" phase - which should be the easy bit. Then we have the how do we now get it to carry people safely and then the how do we get it all the way to Mars, and then the how do we land it, then what do we do when we get there. In the current trial and error mode that Musk seems to favour I think the best bet is to not have so many people die in the process that we run out of volunteers

Okay I'll bite, but I'm sticking to the space bit, I've got no time for the continued red pill rubbish. 

What copious amounts of evidence do you have to suggest that SpaceX aren't going to land on Mars?  Without repeating the rocket exploding argument - they went through the exact same process designing the previous rockets and reusable boosters that now haul virtually everything up into space.

Furthermore, if you are so adamant SpaceX aren't going to land on Mars do you think they should just simply stop now?  Or do you think they should continue to push the boundaries of what may or may not be achievable?  If its the latter, do you think those of us that have a genuine interest in the subject would like to discuss it without the thread being continually hijacked by an anti-Musk, anti-[insert forum user] agenda?

Ignoring your gut for a moment do you think that NASA, funded by the US Govt - currently one of Musks major fanboys (yes that was irony) would congratulate SpaceX on a successful launch the other day, if it was just a rocket blowing up?  And do you think they would have awarded SpaceX the $3bn contract for the moon lander if they were just going to continually blow up the money without gaining data and making progress?  It is also worth noting that NASA are not only planning on using the lander designed by SpaceX to land on the Moon, but also the rocket they are currently designing to get them there. 

And finally, how many people have SpaceX killed so far in testing?  How many did NASA kill during testing and live missions?  And what leads you think SpaceX will sacrifice anyone?  I don't know whether this is up-to-date, but as of the end of August SpaceX has launched 11 crewed missions (42 people) into space - and they have all come back alive.

https://spaceexplored.com/2023/08/26/spacex-crewed-flights/

Sure Musk has joked that people might not come back from Mars - the following for example, but Musk says a lot of stupid stuff;

"It's dangerous, it's uncomfortable, it's a long journey. You might not come back alive. But it's a glorious adventure, and it'll be an amazing experience," he said. "You might die ... and you probably won't have good food and all these things. It's an arduous and dangerous journey where you may not come back alive, but it's a glorious adventure," Musk said.

"Sounds appealing," Musk laughed.

https://www.space.com/elon-musk-mars-spacex-risks-astronauts-die

But if it gets to the stage that people are strapped in, counting down to take off it will be no different than the astronauts that went to the Moon.  President Nixon even had a speech prepared for if the worst happened;

'Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace.

These brave men, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin, know that there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope for mankind in their sacrifice.

These two men are laying down their lives in mankind’s most noble goal: the search for truth and understanding.

They will be mourned by their families and friends; they will be mourned by their nation; they will be mourned by the people of the world; they will be mourned by a Mother Earth that dared send two of her sons into the unknown.

In their exploration, they stirred the people of the world to feel as one; in their sacrifice, they bind more tightly the brotherhood of man.

In ancient days, men looked at stars and saw their heroes in the constellations. In modern times, we do much the same, but our heroes are epic men of flesh and blood.

Others will follow, and surely find their way home. Man’s search will not be denied. But these men were the first, and they will remain the foremost in our hearts.

For every human being who looks up at the moon in the nights to come will know that there is some corner of another world that is forever mankind.'

Even the later astronauts during the Shuttle era new the risks were 1 in 75;

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1191013/moon-landing-nasa-odds-total-destruction-mike-massimino-apollo-11-mission-control-spt

Later, this was revised down to about 1 in 9;

https://www.npr.org/2011/03/04/134265291/early-space-shuttle-flights-riskier-than-estimated

Space travel is dangerous, its right on the edge of what is possible and being the first to do anything always carries risk - but the first astronauts won't simply be sacrificial lambs.  I'd imagine the rocket will be the most technologically advanced rocket humans will have ever made, tested to the best of our abilities and knowledge and as seen above, the Astronauts will know full well the odds of making it back safely.  And if the worst does happen, to paraphrase the above;

'They will be mourned  [but] others will follow, and surely find their way home. Man’s search will not be denied.'

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10 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

I think its the pretence that its Musk's private money that's funding it and not the US taxpayers dosh that makes it all a big scam to some.

 

 

Many companies use government money to  help their business grow I don’t see any difference with SpaceX.

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8 hours ago, maxjam said:

What copious amounts of evidence do you have to suggest that SpaceX aren't going to land on Mars?

I didn't say that they wouldn't land on Mars, in fact I said my best hope is that we will land a person (eventually) but it's pretty much a given that they will die. Then we will give up on the idea of ever building a human colony there.

The trip to Mars in space is long. Much longer than going to the moon. People should stop conflating the two things as the same

Astronauts need to be sustained and kept sane for that long, and also have enough supplies to last for an indefinite period. Carl has talked about the transfer window being limited (Earth needs to be in the right place relative to Mars for the trip to be as short as possible), so opportunities to re-supply are therefore limited

Mars has virtually no magnetic field. and virtually no atmosphere so you can't hang around on the surface too long because of solar radiation and the soil is comprised of fine sand that is highly carcinogenic, so again, very difficult to start digging it up to build stuff.

It's very cold (-153c). Humans will need an energy source to keep warm, let alone power machinery, life support etc. Solar panels aren't a very good solution as Mars is that much further from the sun. So nuclear energy is the only real solution, but very difficult and some way off

We've also talked about the lack of gravity and its effect on human bone density - the length of the trip to Mars and then the idea that humans can hang around on Mars for any amount of time is fatally flawed by the fact that the astronauts will be crippled pretty quickly.

And finally- the cost of solving ALL of the above is incomprehensibly large, so there has to be some benefit. If we ever make it to Mars I strongly suspect that we will find there is no reason to be there and it will be money wasted that we could have spent engineering solutions to our own problems. The sci-fi wetdream of us being a "multi-planetary species" is very silly. Mars is even more inhospitable and ill-suited to human life than a globally warmed planet. At least we'd be looking for solutions in a breathable atmosphere with the correct gravity.

I get that it's a whizz-bang exciting idea for sci-fi fans, but unfortunately it's not sci-fi and we can't suspend our disbelief on this one. I love Star Wars too but I'm just being a realist. Sorry

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21 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I didn't say that they wouldn't land on Mars, in fact I said my best hope is that we will land a person (eventually) but it's pretty much a given that they will die. Then we will give up on the idea of ever building a human colony there.

The trip to Mars in space is long. Much longer than going to the moon. People should stop conflating the two things as the same

Astronauts need to be sustained and kept sane for that long, and also have enough supplies to last for an indefinite period. Carl has talked about the transfer window being limited (Earth needs to be in the right place relative to Mars for the trip to be as short as possible), so opportunities to re-supply are therefore limited

Mars has virtually no magnetic field. and virtually no atmosphere so you can't hang around on the surface too long because of solar radiation and the soil is comprised of fine sand that is highly carcinogenic, so again, very difficult to start digging it up to build stuff.

It's very cold (-153c). Humans will need an energy source to keep warm, let alone power machinery, life support etc. Solar panels aren't a very good solution as Mars is that much further from the sun. So nuclear energy is the only real solution, but very difficult and some way off

We've also talked about the lack of gravity and its effect on human bone density - the length of the trip to Mars and then the idea that humans can hang around on Mars for any amount of time is fatally flawed by the fact that the astronauts will be crippled pretty quickly.

And finally- the cost of solving ALL of the above is incomprehensibly large, so there has to be some benefit. If we ever make it to Mars I strongly suspect that we will find there is no reason to be there and it will be money wasted that we could have spent engineering solutions to our own problems. The sci-fi wetdream of us being a "multi-planetary species" is very silly. Mars is even more inhospitable and ill-suited to human life than a globally warmed planet. At least we'd be looking for solutions in a breathable atmosphere with the correct gravity.

I get that it's a whizz-bang exciting idea for sci-fi fans, but unfortunately it's not sci-fi and we can't suspend our disbelief on this one. I love Star Wars too but I'm just being a realist. Sorry

Well, I appreciate the response.  If we could all keep the thread somewhat on track in future for those that 'dare to dream' it would be appreciated.

A lot of the stuff you mention do seem like insurmountable problems - similar 'insurmountable' problems we faced when we first thought about going to the Moon.  However, I'm 100% certain that NASA, SpaceX etc are aware of the problems and are coming up with solutions.  I linked this page from the NASA website previously;

https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/

Personally, I think its only a matter of time until humans have a permanent presence on both the Moon and Mars.  Yes there are huge challenges ahead and the timescales quoted may be optimistic, but I feel confident that I'll see it in my lifetime. 

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18 hours ago, maxjam said:

Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace.

These brave men, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin, know that there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope for mankind in their sacrifice.

These two men are laying down their lives in mankind’s most noble goal: the search for truth and understanding.

They will be mourned by their families and friends; they will be mourned by their nation; they will be mourned by the people of the world; they will be mourned by a Mother Earth that dared send two of her sons into the unknown.

In their exploration, they stirred the people of the world to feel as one; in their sacrifice, they bind more tightly the brotherhood of man.

In ancient days, men looked at stars and saw their heroes in the constellations. In modern times, we do much the same, but our heroes are epic men of flesh and blood.

Others will follow, and surely find their way home. Man’s search will not be denied. But these men were the first, and they will remain the foremost in our hearts.

For every human being who looks up at the moon in the nights to come will know that there is some corner of another world that is forever mankind.'

That is a stirring speech. Almost makes me want to die on the moon and have you all looking up at me. Sign me up. 

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6 minutes ago, maxjam said:

If you've got relatively clear skies tonight it might be worth nipping outside quick, fantastic view of a Moon Halo - looks like full rainbow around the moon up in North Yorkshire atm.

My phone camera is pretty crap, but there are plenty of decent images like this one on t'internet

 

Sorry Maxjam but that one is taken in Kidsgrove. Its Stoke-on-Trent.....its probably a reflection from the burning cars.

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On 22/11/2023 at 09:51, maxjam said:

Well, I appreciate the response.  If we could all keep the thread somewhat on track in future for those that 'dare to dream' it would be appreciated.

https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/

Personally, I think its only a matter of time until humans have a permanent presence on both the Moon and Mars.  Yes there are huge challenges ahead and the timescales quoted may be optimistic, but I feel confident that I'll see it in my lifetime. 

I agree with you about the Moon and Mars, but I'm thinking in terms of hundreds of years away rather than decades. 

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Just now, ketteringram said:

I agree with you about the Moon and Mars, but I'm thinking in terms of hundreds of years away rather than decades. 

This makes a lot of sense, for Mars especially. I think some of the timescales being mentioned for a colony on Mars are just wildly optimistic. And with a few billion years before the Earth is toast, we are not exactly racing against the clock here. I'm totally in favour of these projects in principal, but I don't see the need to rush anything.

When you see the state of astronauts when they return from the ISS after a few months, in what is effectively a zero gravity environment, not being able to walk unassisted without the ground crew's support, you've got to wonder how we expect people to cope on Mars after a 6 month minimum trip, without any helpful ground crews to hold their weakened bodies upright. And we think those people would be in a condition to start building a base on Mars? it all seems unrealistic to me. For now. 

Now if we were planning building a giant telescope on the moon, I'd be all for it.  

 

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20 hours ago, GboroRam said:

Ok. Nice posts about the pretty rockets from now on, by weight of popular opinion. 

The next one that blows - sorry, goes - up, I shall say "Ooooooh. Ahhhhh!".

All right, if I was from Norfolk, I'd say "Oooo arrr".

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19 hours ago, maxjam said:

If you've got relatively clear skies tonight it might be worth nipping outside quick, fantastic view of a Moon Halo - looks like full rainbow around the moon up in North Yorkshire atm.

My phone camera is pretty crap, but there are plenty of decent images like this one on t'internet

 

Ice crystals at high altitude baffles the internet.

For God's sake, don't tell them about double rainbows.

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