Our leaking defence

[ram59]

What those limited stats also tell us, is that the 4 teams we've played are all in the top 8 of that table. 

So, does that mean that we've had more difficult games or that they're all high up, because they've played against us? 

[JfR]

Breakdown of those "big chances":
Reading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHQWKPneU48
19th minute, John Swift, 35% - @0:20
57th minute, Lucas Joao, 37% - @4:12

Luton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmd4N4MLybc
19th minute, James Collins, 65% - @1:00
34th minute, Luke Berry, 64%, Goal - @2:00
87th minute, Jordan Clark, 37%, Goal - @4:50

Blackburn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYk6xRsBIHo
11th minute, Tyrhys Dolan, 70%, Goal - @1:05
77th minute, Adam Armstrong, Goal - @5:25

Norwich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muvYddiQumk
77th minute, Max Aarons, 51% - @4:15

[RamNut]

I have analysed this at some length.

I knew that there must be a reason why these chances were conceded, and although each individual chance conceded has a unique cause or multiple cause, there also has to be a Single unifying underlying reason.

 I concluded that the reason we conceded all those chances, was that on each and every occasion.......... there was another team who were trying to score.
 

my pleasure. 

[Carl Sagan]

1 hour ago, JfR said:

Breakdown of those "big chances":
Reading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHQWKPneU48
19th minute, John Swift, 35% - @0:20
57th minute, Lucas Joao, 37% - @4:12

Luton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmd4N4MLybc
19th minute, James Collins, 65% - @1:00
34th minute, Luke Berry, 64%, Goal - @2:00
87th minute, Jordan Clark, 37%, Goal - @4:50

Blackburn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYk6xRsBIHo
11th minute, Tyrhys Dolan, 70%, Goal - @1:05
77th minute, Adam Armstrong, Goal - @5:25

Norwich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muvYddiQumk
77th minute, Max Aarons, 51% - @4:15

Amazing. Guessing you are James the intern statistician? Great work if so, thanks.

[sage]

It's interesting that when goals are conceded we blame the defence. In the recent games that Man Utd and Liverpool conceded 6 and 7 respectively, much of the blame delivered by Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher was directed towards the midfield as well as the defence, perhaps even more so. It was noted that the opposition were running off the back of losing midfielders and their high lines were cut open because the passers were not being closed down.

It is noticeable that we won and kept a clean sheet when we played with more pace at CM.

Defending isn't just for defenders. 

    

[Millenniumram]

Don’t think it’s really down to the personnel, it must be a lack of organisation. The players we’ve brought in are largely top 6 quality imo, so there’s no reason in that sense for us to shipping such a ridiculous amount of goals. Maybe a new LB would improve us, but I don’t think it would transform those stats. There’s something else at play here.

Two factors to a lack of organisation imo - lack of leadership/communication on the pitch, or poor preparation in training from the coaching staff. Think we definitely have lacked the former and that’s why Davies was brought in to good effect, difficult to tell the extent the latter is also having an effect. Ultimately it’s the managers job to ensure there’s that organisation on the pitch though, so if this continues, blame will eventually fall on Cocu - as it always does with every manager.

[LazloW]

The internet, dedicated 24 hour a day sports tv channels, social media, TalkSport, football on TV everyday, social media and smart phones are all wonderful inventions and innovations which add a lot of value to our everyday lives, but by God they haven’t  half created a space for an awful lot of b****cks to be generated about the simple game of football.

I can’t imagine our forefathers sitting in the pub 30 years ago debating ‘crazy big chances created’ stats over a pint.

Grumpy old man I might be, but honestly this is just drivel. I mean, it is actually completely meaningless. It doesn’t matter. We conceded shed loads of chances against Norwich and won. That is football. Trying to statistical-isle (made up word!) every aspect so we can pretend it’s some kind of complicated magical and mysterious art is nonsense. 

[Sparkle]

We just kept a clean sheet 

[Marriot Ram99]

10 hours ago, LazloW said:

The internet, dedicated 24 hour a day sports tv channels, social media, TalkSport, football on TV everyday, social media and smart phones are all wonderful inventions and innovations which add a lot of value to our everyday lives, but by God they haven’t  half created a space for an awful lot of b****cks to be generated about the simple game of football.

I can’t imagine our forefathers sitting in the pub 30 years ago debating ‘crazy big chances created’ stats over a pint.

Grumpy old man I might be, but honestly this is just drivel. I mean, it is actually completely meaningless. It doesn’t matter. We conceded shed loads of chances against Norwich and won. That is football. Trying to statistical-isle (made up word!) every aspect so we can pretend it’s some kind of complicated magical and mysterious art is nonsense. 

Not that in to stats but kind of disagree, because the stats tell you what sort of results you can expect over the course of the season (crap ones) if you play in a certain way  because over the course of the season if you give alot of chances away you will concede alot. It doesn't take a genius to work out the things it suggests but it adds some scientific weight behind opinions and makes claims like our defence has been awful more valid. If we play over the season like we have done first 4 we will 100% be going down but I'm hopeful of a big improvement. 

[Marriot Ram99]

11 hours ago, Millenniumram said:

Don’t think it’s really down to the personnel, it must be a lack of organisation. The players we’ve brought in are largely top 6 quality imo, so there’s no reason in that sense for us to shipping such a ridiculous amount of goals. Maybe a new LB would improve us, but I don’t think it would transform those stats. There’s something else at play here.

Two factors to a lack of organisation imo - lack of leadership/communication on the pitch, or poor preparation in training from the coaching staff. Think we definitely have lacked the former and that’s why Davies was brought in to good effect, difficult to tell the extent the latter is also having an effect. Ultimately it’s the managers job to ensure there’s that organisation on the pitch though, so if this continues, blame will eventually fall on Cocu - as it always does with every manager.

As I said before the start of the season the defence is bang average midtable quality and I stick by that, we need a left back and Bielik and Knight shielding the defence to be more solid. 

[Abu Derby]

It’s because we make it too easy for teams. We are too deliberate in our play, faff around too much and are more concerned about the opposition than they are of us. 

[Red_ram]

Whilst there’s been individual errors, I still think the lack of bite and press in central midfield equates to extra pressure on both the full backs and centre backs, which is where we’re losing this battle. Blackburn was the perfect example of this. Not just johnsons largely unchallenged goals but the way those moves developed. Full backs may have made mistakes but the offensive opponents were in good positions/ on the front foot as their midfield counterparts had the time and space to pick out a more telling pass. I dunno if it’s quantity or personnel (personally think Rooney is the weak link here). I’d hope a fully fit Bielik would make a huge difference here. I think generally the team hasn’t put enough effort or press on the opponent though too.

[Millenniumram]

3 hours ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

As I said before the start of the season the defence is bang average midtable quality and I stick by that, we need a left back and Bielik and Knight shielding the defence to be more solid. 

Think that’s a bit harsh. Agree ideally we need a new LB, but Clarke is one of the best centre backs in the league, and Te Weirik could reach a similar standard once he’s adapted imo. Byrne is an ok right back as well. Should be enough there for top 6 personnel wise.

[G-Ram]

The issue is playing holding midfielders that are good on the ball but arnt actually that good defensively. Rooney in that position doesn't have the legs to close down. As much as a few hate him we'd be better with a savage type holding. 

Not playing a defender like davies who can read the game & will head a boot & organisation. 

Id prefer Davies & clarke. A proper defender with a playing out from the back type.

Couple of errors at LB which is expected but he's an inexperienced young lad who will get better

There isnt one reason 

[Rammy03]

54 minutes ago, Red_ram said:

Whilst there’s been individual errors, I still think the lack of bite and press in central midfield equates to extra pressure on both the full backs and centre backs, which is where we’re losing this battle.

This is true. Blackburn just blasted through Bird and Rooney. They're both good on the ball but they don't get stuck in enough to win it back. You need shinnie or Knight in there. This is partly why we looked so assured defensively against Norwich. Bielik returning should also solve this problem.

[Marriot Ram99]

1 hour ago, Millenniumram said:

Think that’s a bit harsh. Agree ideally we need a new LB, but Clarke is one of the best centre backs in the league, and Te Weirik could reach a similar standard once he’s adapted imo. Byrne is an ok right back as well. Should be enough there for top 6 personnel wise.

Clarke makes Keogh look like Baresi. Imo, he's slow and cumbersome on the ball has no recovery pace and makes poor errors. He was decent at times last season but he's no better than the average Championship defender for me, Davies is a better defender than him but because of the stupid football we have tried to play he hasn't been given games. The midfielders and fullbacks should do the harder passers and then we can play Davies and Wisdom at the back and be more solid. Te werik has looked rubbish so far so he will have to improve alot if he is going to play week in week out, I'd start him next to Davies against Watford and if he doesn't perform go with Wisdom or Clarke. 5 at the back isn't going to utilise our squad properly with the attackers and midfielders we've got so we should get used to 4231 or 433. We've got one good centre back in Davies, Byrne is good as well and the rest are either average to below average in my eyes, at least we have Marshall who is one of the best in the league with Hamer still in goal we would do well to finish midtable. 

[Millenniumram]

4 hours ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

Clarke makes Keogh look like Baresi. Imo, he's slow and cumbersome on the ball has no recovery pace and makes poor errors. He was decent at times last season but he's no better than the average Championship defender for me, Davies is a better defender than him but because of the stupid football we have tried to play he hasn't been given games. The midfielders and fullbacks should do the harder passers and then we can play Davies and Wisdom at the back and be more solid. Te werik has looked rubbish so far so he will have to improve alot if he is going to play week in week out, I'd start him next to Davies against Watford and if he doesn't perform go with Wisdom or Clarke. 5 at the back isn't going to utilise our squad properly with the attackers and midfielders we've got so we should get used to 4231 or 433. We've got one good centre back in Davies, Byrne is good as well and the rest are either average to below average in my eyes, at least we have Marshall who is one of the best in the league with Hamer still in goal we would do well to finish midtable. 

Not sure what you’re expecting from a championship centre back if Clarke is “average”. There’s not many better all round than him, who can both win their headers and tackles, as well as play out the back. If he had more pace, he’d be playing in a top half Prem team, simple as that. Players in the championship can’t do everything, I’m sure most CB’s at the top end of the league are no better than Clarke.

Agree that Davies is excellent at what he does, best defender in my lifetime in fact, but you can’t write off playing out the back as “stupid football”. It’s fundamental to the way most teams play nowadays, and if you can’t do it, you won’t play for most teams. That’s why Davies rarely gets a game, despite being brilliant at what he does.

We’ve got to focus on improving what we’ve got imo. There’s no reason why Clarke and Te Weirik can’t make a good CB partnership in a 4-3-3. We just need some semblance of organisation - that has to come from the players on the pitch, and from the coaching staff.

[Comrade 86]

14 hours ago, Marriott Ram99 said:

Clarke makes Keogh look like Baresi. Imo, he's slow and cumbersome on the ball has no recovery pace and makes poor errors. He was decent at times last season but he's no better than the average Championship defender for me, Davies is a better defender than him but because of the stupid football we have tried to play he hasn't been given games. The midfielders and fullbacks should do the harder passers and then we can play Davies and Wisdom at the back and be more solid. Te werik has looked rubbish so far so he will have to improve alot if he is going to play week in week out, I'd start him next to Davies against Watford and if he doesn't perform go with Wisdom or Clarke. 5 at the back isn't going to utilise our squad properly with the attackers and midfielders we've got so we should get used to 4231 or 433. We've got one good centre back in Davies, Byrne is good as well and the rest are either average to below average in my eyes, at least we have Marshall who is one of the best in the league with Hamer still in goal we would do well to finish midtable. 

He's the reigning Jack Stamps POTY an award he won playing the stupid football we play. Along with Bird, he was a the most consistent player in last year's senior squad. There's a difference between form and ability. He hasn't suddenly become a bad player. 

[Anag Ram]

I think the key areas are organisation and concentration. 

The players aren't bad players. They just don't seem quite on it at times. 

Every player should be aware of their responsibilities without needing a manager to tell them. 

Keeper should be shouting at defence. Centre halves should be communicating across the back and with the midfield to support them. 

Midfield should be moving like a shoal if fush back and forth to support those behind and in front of them. 

Forwards should be closing down defenders and demanding the ball in attack. 

We look sleepy at times. 

It wasn't the five that won us the game against Norwich. It was the team meeting and Curtis Davies leading by example. 

We could still easily have lost but a slippery penalty spot and two great saves saw us through. 

The defence should know the levels now expected of them and maybe a win will boost their esteem.